U.S. pork continues to find a place on global consumers’ tables, though that demand is slowing in some sectors from the year prior.
According to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF), November exports (the most recent numbers available) come in at 254,085 metric tons, which is down 7% from the year prior but was the third-highest month for 2025.
That export volume is valued at $720.8 million, down 8% year over year.
The growth markets for U.S. pork year over year in November were to Mexico, South Korea and the Dominican Republic. Guatemala also received record-large exports. Growth to those countries was tempered by fewer shipments to China, Japan, Canada and Colombia.
The first 11 months of 2025 saw 2.68 million MT in pork exports, down 3% from 2024. It is fair to point out that 2024 saw record export growth.
As we all know, China is a big global market driver, whether that’s to the positive or to the negative. The political theater that continues between the United States and China has been blamed on the 2025 pork export slowdown as most of that decline is in lower variety meat shipments to China, as retaliatory duties are imposed on U.S. pork.
Even with those challenges, Dan Halstrom, USMEF president and CEO, said in a late-January press release, “The pork export numbers continue to be impressive, with broad-based growth mostly offsetting the obstacles in China. It was especially gratifying to see per-head export value topping $70 in November, which is excellent news for U.S. producers and for the entire pork supply chain.”
Both domestic and global consumption of U.S. pork obviously drive America’s swine industry, but how does this paint the picture of the worldwide business?
A late-January report from RaboResearch said shifting trade patterns will lead into uneven production growth. In addition to trade restrictions, it is expected that biosecurity, diseases and high construction costs will impact global supply.
RaboResearch, the knowledge center of Rabobank, predicts modest production growth in the first half of 2026 in the U.S., European Union and China, while Brazil is expected to show steady growth.
While the focus moving forward, as it has in the past, will be on productivity, cost reduction and expansion, Chenjun Pan, RaboResearch senior animal protein analyst, said in a press release, “The driving forces for growth vary by region. … Productivity improvements weigh more than previously in the U.S., China, the EU and Brazil, while the large herd size is another main cause of output growth for China.”
Pan went on to say that global production in the second half of the year is expected to slow down and even decline, mainly behind herd reductions in China and Spain. “In China, producers scale back to rebalance, while Spain faces African swine fever-related trade constraints that lead to herd cuts,” she said.
RaboResearch’s team looked to the last USDA Hogs & Pigs report, which indicated that the U.S. swine industry is seeing limited rebuilding as the sow herd remained below 6 million head. With the cost of expansion, the global export uncertainty and the disease challenges that continue to plague producers, RaboResearch expects delayed growth.
That means the supply growth will come from productivity gains and raising finishers to higher carcass weights. Producers continue on the trend of ticking up the number of pigs saved per litter, and lower feed costs offer impetus to feed out heavier market hogs.