by Tim Koch
Looking across the states we serve — Nebraska, Iowa, Kansas, South Dakota and Wyoming — and the data from our recently released Benchmark Farm Value Trends Report — part of our collaboration with AgCountry and Frontier Farm Credit — one word continues to define the land market: stability.
That may not sound dramatic, but in today’s farm economy, stability is a story worth telling.
Across our footprint, farmland values have largely held steady. Despite today’s margin pressures, land values remain surprisingly resilient. That resilience comes from a familiar duo: limited acres available and buyers focused on the long game.
According to the Farm Value Trends Report released in early January, average benchmark changes over the past six months ranged from modest declines to moderate increases, with an overall average gain of less than 1%.
Over a 12-month period, values were up about 1.6% on average. That kind of performance doesn’t signal a market under stress; it signals one that is balancing competing forces.
What’s driving stability?
The first factor is producer financial strength. Despite margin pressure, most farmers and ranchers still have solid balance sheets. Strong equity positions and strong working capital allow producers to be patient, selective and disciplined, whether they’re buying land or choosing not to sell.
The second and arguably more important factor is supply. There simply isn’t much land coming to market. Public auction activity has trended lower since 2022, and that decline has continued into this year.
Iowa, for example, is down about 17% year over year in auction volume, while Kansas and Nebraska are down closer to 3% to 4%. South Dakota is an exception, posting an 11% increase after a sharp pullback in 2023, but overall supply remains historically tight.
This slowdown isn’t driven by stress. If producers were under real financial pressure, we’d see more land for sale, not less. Instead, sellers are being strategic. Many are opting for private sales or real estate listings rather than auctions, citing timing, commissions and uncertainty. No one wants to be the seller who confirms the 20% price drop everyone predicted but that hasn’t materialized.
This tells me that the constrained supply is one of the biggest forces supporting values today. It’s a straightforward supply-and-demand story.
Strength and softness
As expected, any softness tends to show up in marginal ground. That’s not new. High-quality, well-located land continues to draw strong interest and competitive bidding when it becomes available.
There’s also a clear difference between cropland and pastureland. Cropland values are feeling the weight of higher production costs and tighter crop margins. Pastureland, on the other hand, is moving to a different rhythm tied closely to positive livestock economics.
Strong cattle prices and continued solid consumer demand have injected optimism into grass markets. In some areas, such as South Dakota, pastureland values have increased meaningfully, with benchmark values in the state up more than 10% over six months and more than 20% over the past year. We’re seeing operators who have rebuilt working capital by stepping back into the market to acquire large tracts near their operations, something we haven’t seen much of in recent years.
Here’s a closer look at developments in certain states:
Iowa. Land values have softened modestly, reflecting some of the tightest margins in our territory. Higher production costs and elevated rents are weighing on returns.
Nebraska. Values are largely stable. Auction volume is slightly lower, but high-quality tracts still attract strong buyer interest.
Kansas. Certain regions have posted gains, signaling localized confidence and demand for well-positioned parcels.
South Dakota. Sales activity is up, particularly for pastureland, which has performed well when offered.
Wyoming. Sales remain limited, but pasture tracts continue to benefit from strong cattle market fundamentals.
Who’s buying and how
Local producers and local investors continue to dominate the buyer pool, accounting for about 85% of transactions. That reinforces a theme we’ve seen consistently: community-based ownership and long-term commitment to the land.
One notable shift is in financing behavior. Cash buyers once dominated the market, but we’re now seeing more transactions involve financing, even among well-capitalized operators. Competitive rates and lender positioning have made financing a strategic choice rather than a necessity.
While financing itself isn’t driving values higher, it does reflect buyer confidence. When the right piece of land becomes available, especially near an existing operation, buyers are still willing to act.
I wouldn’t call this a true equilibrium. What we’re seeing instead is a market held in balance by opposing forces. On one side sits lower commodity prices, higher input costs and tighter margins. On the other are strong balance sheets and limited land supply.
If supply were more typical, I believe land values would likely be 5% to 10% lower than where they sit today, especially for lower-quality parcels. But supply isn’t normal, and until that changes, relative stability will likely persist.
Looking ahead
As we move toward 2026, there are reasons for cautious optimism. Commodity prices have stabilized, crop insurance programs appear stronger than in recent years, and government assistance continues to provide a stopgap. Producers aren’t expecting runaway profits, but sentiment is noticeably improved compared with postharvest 2025.
The outlook points to continued steadiness rather than sharp swings; plus or minus 3% feels realistic. Could we see upward pressure a year from now? Possibly. But for now, the story remains the same: a stable land market supported by strong fundamentals and tight supply.
For a deeper dive into the data behind these trends and detailed information by state, visit our latest Land Value Trends Report.
Koch is executive vice president of business development for Farm Credit Services of America’s Frontier Farm Credit states.