*This is the final article in our 2026 Southwest Economic Outlook series. Economists from Texas A&M University and Texas A&M AgriLife Extension, and Oklahoma State University and Oklahoma State University Extension provide a 2026 outlook on various topics and commodities. A digital copy of the Economic Outlook Issue is also available online.
The 2025 growing season for U.S. feed grains began with a large increase in planted corn acres, which totaled 98.7 million. This was up from 90.6 million in 2024, and it was the most since 102 million acres were planted in 1936.
As the growing season progressed, USDA reported over 70% of the U.S. crop was in good and excellent condition for most of the summer. This led to an August yield estimate of a record 188.8 bushels per acre, beating the old record in 2024 by over 9 bushels.
By September, crop ratings had begun to fall off, and reports of disease pressure were leading to considerable yield variability. Subsequently, USDA lowered the yield estimate to 186.7 bushels per acre. With the shutdown of the federal government on Oct. 1, growers and analysts did not receive late-season crop ratings or an October yield estimate. In the much-anticipated November report, USDA lowered the yield only slightly to 186.0 bushels per acre.
With the increase in planted acres, the production estimate for 2025 was a record 16.7 billion bushels. The corn supply in 2025 was 1.6 billion bushels higher than 2024. The grain sorghum yield of 75 bushels per acre is the highest since a national yield average of 77.9 bushels per acre in 2016.
On the other side of the balance sheet, U.S. corn use was setting records too. On a strong increase in feed use, domestic use was a record 13.1 billion bushels. Corn exports were a record-high 2.8 billion bushels in 2024, a record beat in 2025 at 3.1 billion bushels. Overall, corn use was up about a billion bushels. With China shutting off purchases, grain sorghum export sales were down sharply in 2024-25.
With the increase in supply greater than the increase in use, U.S. corn ending stocks in the 2025-26 corn marketing year are projected to be 2.2 billion bushels, up 600,000 bushels. Ending stocks relative to use result in an estimated 48.7 days of use on hand at the end of the marketing year, up from 36.9 days of use on hand at the end of the 2024-25 marketing year. That lowers the estimated season-average farm price from $4.30 per bushel for the 2024 crop to $4 per bushel for 2025.
What to expect in 2026
Looking ahead to the 2026 crop, what changes are expected in the supply and demand fundamentals, and what would be the anticipated price impacts?
After a strong increase in 2025, corn acres are expected to shift lower in 2026. This is based on the normal rotation between corn and soybeans in major production areas and an improved profitability outlook for soybeans with China coming back in as an export customer. A national trendline yield estimate for 2026 would be about 183 bushels per acre. With lower acres and yield, corn production will likely be lower in 2026 compared with 2025. That will be offset somewhat by a higher level of beginning stocks.
Corn consumption for the 2026-27 corn marketing year will face challenges increasing from record levels in 2025-26. This applies to domestic consumption as well as corn exports. A return to more normal trade relations with China would be a boost to sorghum exports. Even with increased beginning stocks, the corn supply in 2026 looks to be lower than 2025. Total corn use looks to be steady to slightly lower. Look for ending stocks in the 2026-27 marketing year to be lower than 2025-26 and for days of use on hand to go down. That would support a slightly higher fundamental price outlook for the 2026 corn crop, which would be supportive for grain sorghum prices as well.