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It’s hard to find wins in today’s marketing environment, but to borrow a baseball analogy, Matt Bennett with AgMarket.net recommends hitting singles instead of swinging for the fences. “We have to get on base,” he says. “Get hit by a pitch. Let’s just try and get on base somehow. If you try to hit a home run [in this environment] you’re going to strike out.”
Parts of the Plains and Mid-South are likely to receive the highest rainfall totals over the next several days, with some fields gathering another 1” to 2” or more between Friday and Monday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Later on, NOAA’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts some cooler-than-normal temperatures for most of the Corn Belt between September 4 and September 10, with wetter-than-normal conditions for parts of the Central and Southern Plains during this time.
On Wall St., the Dow inched 30 points higher to 34,595 as investors remain cautiously optimistic that the Federal Reserve could initiate a 0.25% interest rate cut in September. Energy futures found moderate increases, with crude oil up 0.7% this afternoon to $64 per barrel. However, that’s still 14.9% lower year-over-year. Gasoline climbed almost 3% higher. The U.S. Dollar softened moderately and is down 3.5% year-over-year.
Corn prices pop after demand optimism
Another solid round of export sales from USDA on Thursday morning helped spur some technical buying that led to gains of 0.75% to 1% today. September futures added 3 cents to $3.8550, with December futures up 4 cents to $4.10.
Corn exports saw 700,000 bushels in net reductions for old crop sales that were offset by an influx of 82.3 million bushels of new crop sales in the week through August 21. Analysts expected to see combined old and new crop corn sales ranging between 39.4 million and 108.3 million bushels for the week ending August 21. Mexico was the top destination, with 24.4 million bushels. Cumulative sales for the 2024-25 marketing year remain well above last year’s pace, with 2.621 billion bushels.
Corn export shipments were 12% higher week-over-week but 13% below the prior four-week average, with 45.2 million bushels. Mexico (16.8 million) and Japan (14.3 million) were the top two destinations.
Wherever the final production numbers land, the corn crop almost certainly will be one of the highest on record. And that’s where the industry must focus its attention, according to Farm Futures senior editor Bruce Blythe. “Whatever the case, it seems a near-lock that we’re going to have big, potentially record harvests,” he says. “Trade focus eventually will shift to demand, which needs to remain strong to absorb what may be burdensome supplies in 2026.” Blythe joined three other market experts in a Farm Progress Show panel titled “How to be a Price Maker in the Grain Market” – click here to learn more.
Illinois governor JB Pritzker announced at the Farm Progress Show earlier this week that Cronus Chemicals is investing $2 billion for a new fertilizer production facility in Tuscola, Ill. Upon completion, it will be able to produce up to 950,000 short tons of ammonia each year and employ around 130 full-time workers. Farm Progress policy editor Joshua Baethge shared additional details – click here to learn more.
Extension economists with the University of Illinois and Ohio State University, reporting in farmdoc daily, looked at the current state of cash rents. Cash rents have increased rapidly during high-return periods, including from 2006-13 and 2020-2022. But is it time for rents to move lower? After all, projections for 2026 indicate cash-rented farmland in Illinois will see a fourth straight year of negative returns for corn-soybean rotations. This may be an opportune time to negotiate for at least modest rent reductions next season. Click here to read the full farmdoc report.
Corn settlements on Wednesday were for 375,186 contracts.
Soybean prices tested modest gains
Prices were flat in overnight trading but scratched out a small win following some light technical buying on Thursday. September futures added a penny to $10.2825, with November futures up 0.5 cents to $10.48.
The rest of the soy complex failed to follow suit. September soymeal futures slumped more than 2.25% lower, while September soyoil futures faded more than 1.25% lower.
Soybean export sales topped expectations after combined old and new crop sales reached 43.4 million bushels. Analysts were expecting that number to land between 9.2 million and 38.6 million bushels. Cumulative sales for the 2024-25 marketing year remain moderately ahead of last year’s pace, with 1.811 billion bushels.
Soybean export shipments were down 21% week-over-week and 23% below the prior four-week average, with 15.0 million bushels. Mexico was the No. 1 destination, with 3.8 million bushels.
Statistics Canada estimates that the country’s 2025 soybean production will reach 257.8 million bushels, which would be a 7.3% decrease from 2024, if realized. Meantime, Canada’s 2025 canola crop could increase 3.6% year-over-year, with an estimated 879.4 million bushels.
Soybean settlements on Wednesday were for 195,994 contracts.
Winter wheat prices found variable gains
Soft red winter wheat contracts continued to find moderate upside on Thursday, while hard red winter wheat contracts tested more modest gains today. September SRW futures rose 8 cents to $5.1025, with September Kansas City HRW futures up 1.25 cents to $4.8675.
Wheat export sales eased 10% below the prior four-week average, with 21.3 million bushels. Vietnam, Nigeria and Mexico were the top three destinations. Analysts expected to see sales ranging between 14.7 million and 25.7 million bushels. Cumulative sales for the 2025-26 marketing year are still trending higher than last year’s pace after reaching 205.8 million bushels.
Wheat export shipments climbed to a marketing-year high of 37.0 million bushels. Indonesia, the Philippines and South Korea were the top five destinations.
Statistics Canada expects this season’s wheat crop to ease 1.1% lower year-over-year with a projection of 1.306 billion bushels. That was also slightly (12.9 million bushels) below the average analyst estimate levied before today’s report.
CBOT wheat settlements on Wednesday were for 148,419 contracts.