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Some days, the grain markets feature plenty of bullish or bearish fireworks. Today was not one of those days. Corn prices found some moderate upside, picking up a few pennies following a round of technical buying. Soybean prices were narrowly mixed, meantime, while winter wheat prices pulled back into the green following a late-session rally.
A band of rains stretching from southwest Kansas through Indiana could deliver another 1” to 2” between Friday and Monday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Later on, NOAA’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts seasonally wet weather for the Plains and western Corn Belt and seasonally cool conditions for the eastern Corn Belt between July 31 and August 6.
On Wall St., the Dow stumbled 177 points lower in afternoon trading to 44,832, partly due to an IBM freefall after its Q2 revenue missed expectations. Energy futures were mixed, with crude oil futures firming 0.75% this afternoon to stay above $65 per barrel. Gasoline futures faded more than 1% lower, in contrast. The U.S. Dollar firmed moderately.
On Thursday, commodity funds were net buyers of soyoil (+3,000) contracts but were net sellers of corn (-1,000), soybeans (-6,000), soymeal (-2,500) and CBOT wheat (-2,000).
Corn prices firmed on trade optimism
Traders engaged in a round of technical buying amid another solid round of export sales data from USDA this morning, although today’s session was also quite choppy. September futures added 3.25 cents to $4.0175, with December futures up 3.5 cents to $4.21.
Corn spot basis bids were steady to weak after tracking 1 to 6 cents lower across half a dozen Midwestern locations on Thursday.
Private exporters announced to USDA the sale of 5.3 million bushels of corn to South Korea and 11.2 million bushels to unknown destinations. The sale to South Korea is for delivery during the 2025-26 marketing year which begins September 1. Almost 30% of the sale to unknown destinations is for delivery during the current marketing year, with the remainder for delivery in 2025-26.
Corn exports found 54.2 million bushels in combined old and new crop sales last week. Old crop sales eased 2% lower week-over-week, while total sales were on the higher end of analyst estimates, which ranged between 19.7 million and 63.0 million bushels. Cumulative sales for the 2024-25 marketing year remain noticeably above last year’s pace after reaching 2.369 billion bushels.
Corn export shipments slid 27% below the prior four-week average, with 41.7 million bushels. Mexico, South Korea, Colombia, Taiwan and Venezuela were the top five destinations.
South Korea purchased 2.7 million bushels of animal feed corn from optional origins in a private deal that closed earlier today. The grain is for arrival in early November.
Corn settlements on Wednesday were for 205,572 contracts.
Soybean prices faced narrowly mixed results
Traders largely shrugged off a lackluster set of export sales data from USDA this morning, which shows the continued absence of sales to China. However, overly hot conditions throughout the central U.S. limited losses. August futures dropped half a penny lower to $10.0525, while September futures firmed 1.5 cents to $10.0650.
Soybean spot basis bids were steady to weak after trending 2 to 10 cents lower across four Midwestern locations on Thursday.
Soybean exports gathered 14.7 million bushels in combined old and new crop sales last week. Old crop sales eroded 59% below the prior four-week average. Total sales were on the very low end of analyst estimates, which ranged between 12.9 million and 31.2 million bushels. Cumulative sales for the 2024-25 marketing year remain moderately above last year’s pace, with 1.721 billion bushels.
Soybean export shipments were 28% better than the prior four-week average after reaching 13.3 million bushels. The Netherlands, Mexico, Egypt, Japan and Indonesia were the top five destinations.
USDA announced that it plans to move 2,600 of its staff out of Washington, D.C., to five of its regional hubs, which the agency says will bring it closer to its “core consultancy.” The agency continues to downsize, meantime, with around 15% of its total workforce taking financial incentive offers to leave or retire. The regional hubs include Raleigh, Kansas City, Indianapolis, Fort Collins and Salt Lake City.
China announced a deal to import an additional 30,000 metric tons of soymeal from Argentina as it explores this relatively new market. China originally approved soymeal imports sourced from Argentina in 2019 but didn’t make any purchases prior to this June. “Despite the current oversupply in the soymeal market, some buyers are still concerned about potential supply tightness down the line, driven by ongoing uncertainty surrounding U.S.-China trade negotiations,” according to Johnny Xiang, founder of Beijing-based AgRadar Consulting.
Soybean settlements on Wednesday were for 270,442 contracts.
Winter wheat prices found fresh export demand
USDA reported a better-than-expected round of export sales data in its latest weekly report, which helped prices stay in the green. September Chicago SRW futures added 1.25 cents to $5.4175, while September Kansas City HRW futures rose 4.75 cents to $5.2825.
Wheat export sales reached 26.2 million bushels last week. That was better than the entire set of analyst estimates, which ranged between 9.2 million and 18.4 million bushels. Cumulative sales for the 2025-26 marketing year are trending moderately ahead of last year’s pace so far after reaching 107.7 million bushels.
Wheat export shipments jumped 80% above the prior four-week average, with 28.0 million bushels. Nigeria, Mexico, Indonesia, Taiwan and Chile were the top five destinations.
CBOT wheat settlements on Wednesday were for 87,731 contracts.