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Listening in on the 2025 BBQ Index from Rabobank today (more on that later), I was reminded of a little pet project of my own. Several speakers noted that consumers are still willing to spend their hard-earned money on premium items so they can have an enjoyable grilling experience – whether that’s a steak or even a pint of ice cream. My trips to the grocery store over the years have me tracking something else: coffee creamers. It seems that in a healthy economy, the choices can get pretty wild. The weirdest flavor I’ve had so far is Fruity Pebbles (I do not recommend). But when the economy is sputtering, your choices tend to get dialed back to the basics – chocolate, hazelnut, you get the picture. A female colleague confirmed that idea might not be too crazy – she found her makeup choices were more limited whenever the economy turned south. What other economic bellwethers are hiding in plain sight?
Following widespread severe storms on Monday, there will still be some wet weather in parts of the eastern Corn Belt later this week, with some fields in Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania set to gather another 1” or more between Wednesday and Saturday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Later on, NOAA’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts some drier-than-normal conditions developing in the upper Midwest between May 27 and June 2, with colder-than-normal weather for most of the Corn Belt during this time.
On Wall St., the Dow stumbled 265 points lower in afternoon trading to 42,526, weighed down by losses from the tech sector. Energy futures were mixed. Crude oil faced fractional cuts this afternoon, staying above $62 per barrel, while gasoline tracked more than 0.5% higher. The U.S. Dollar softened moderately.
On Monday, commodity funds were net buyers of corn (+3,000), soyoil (+1,000) and CBOT wheat (+3,000) contracts but were net sellers of soybeans (-3,000) and soymeal (-1,000).
Corn prices follow many commodities higher
Traders engaged in a solid round of technical buying on Tuesday that led to considerable gains today. There are growing concerns that ample rainfall in some areas this spring may lead to higher-than-normal prevent plant acres. July futures rose 7 cents to $4.4475, with September futures up 7.25 cents to $4.2575.
Corn spot basis bids shifted 6 cents lower at an Illinois processor while firming 1 to 3 cents higher across three other Midwestern locations and holding steady elsewhere across the central U.S. on Tuesday.
Corn plantings moved from 62% completion a week ago up to 78% as of Sunday. That was slightly below the average trade guess of 79%. It is still ahead of 2024’s pace of 67% and the prior five-year average of 73%, however. Corn emergence reached the halfway point, up from 28% last week.
Did you know there are four main triggers that affect basis? Grain market analyst Bryce Knorr tags them as trade areas for merchandisers, transportation costs, delivery charges and interest rates. Knorr looked at basis changes between 2024 and 2025 in key Midwestern states and discussed the matter further in Monday’s Ag Marketing IQ blog – click here to learn more.
Consumers may simply see a 4% increase in the cost of a Memorial Day BBQ, but farmers who look at the agricultural economics behind those numbers can find hot opportunities and cold financial realities. The 2025 BBQ Index was released by Rabobank earlier today, and the Farm Futures team dug into the details – click here to learn more.
Corn settlements on Monday were for 368,212 contracts.
Soybean prices rally on weather woes
Triple-digit weather in China and flooding in Argentina were two reasons for traders to engage in some technical buying on Tuesday. Spillover strength from other commodities lent some additional support. July and August futures each added 3.5 cents to settle at $10.5425 and $10.5125, respectively.
Soybean spot basis bids tracked 5 cents higher at an Illinois processor while holding steady elsewhere across the central U.S. on Tuesday.
Soybean plantings moved from 48% completion last week up to 66% through May 18. That was slightly above the average trade guess of 65%. It is also substantially higher than 2024’s pace of 50% and the prior five-year average of 53%. Around a third (34%) of this year’s soybean crop is now emerged, up from 17% a week ago.
Brazilian oilseed lobby Abiove fractionally raised its estimates for the country’s 2024/25 soybean production after offering a new estimate of 6.235 billion bushels – a record, if realized. Abiove also slightly reduced its estimates for the country’s soybean exports, with a new projection of 3.976 billion bushels.
Argentina’s Buenos Aires grains exchange expressed concerns over the country’s 2024/25 soybean production potential following heavy storms, citing “significant losses” in the northwestern Buenos Aires province. Some fields were swamped with as much as 15 inches, which also caused residential damage and highway closures. The exchange currently has Argentina’s soybean production at 1.837 billion bushels.
Soybean settlements on Monday were for 152,479 contracts.
Wheat prices climb higher on quality cuts
USDA unexpectedly reduced quality ratings by two points in Monday afternoon’s report, which helped fuel plenty of technical buying on Tuesday. A weakening U.S. Dollar lent some additional support. July Chicago SRW futures jumped 18.25 cents higher to $5.4725, July Kansas City HRW futures climbed 14.75 cents to $5.3750, and July MGEX spring wheat futures rose 12.5 cents to $5.98.
Spring wheat plantings moved from 66% a week ago up to 82% through Sunday. That was two points above the average trade guess of 80%. It is also moderately above 2024’s pace of 76% and substantially above the prior five-year average of 65%.
Winter wheat quality ratings took an unexpected turn lower after shedding two points last week, with 52% of the crop now in good-to-excellent conditions. Analysts were expecting to see ratings hold steady. Another 30% of the crop is rated fair (up two points from last week), with the remaining 18% rated poor or very poor (unchanged from last week). Physiologically, 64% of the crop is now headed, up from 53% last week.
Russia is likely to face hot, dry weather in the coming months, which could negatively affect its wheat production potential, especially in the top grain state of Rostov. Insurance payments linked to bad weather are up 76% year-over-year so far. Russia is the world’s top wheat exporter.
CBOT wheat settlements on Monday were for 112,876 contracts.