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Rains will be largely relegated to the Plains over the next several days, although the Great Lakes region could also catch a shower between Saturday and Tuesday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Later this month, NOAA’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts more seasonally wet weather ahead for the Plains between September 19 and September 25, with warmer-than-normal conditions likely for most of the country during this time.
On Wall St., the Dow faded another 173 points lower in afternoon trading to 45,934 as investors await the Federal Reserve’s decision on whether to lower interest rates when it meets next week. Energy futures pushed moderately higher, with crude oil up more than 0.5% this afternoon to stay above $62 per barrel. Gasoline tracked more than 0.75% higher. The U.S. Dollar firmed slightly.
Corn prices captured double-digit gains
Prices were driven by demand bulls after USDA shows record-breaking export potential for the 2025-26 marketing year, which led to a late-session rally. December futures climbed 10.25 cents higher to $4.30, with March futures up 10 cents to $4.4725.
USDA slashed average corn yields by 2.1 bushels per acre to 186.7 bpa following a very dry August in many areas. Even so, USDA is predicting an even bigger U.S. corn crop, raising its forecast to an unprecedented 16.814 billion bushels, an increase of nearly 2 billion bushels, or about 13%, above last year’s harvest. Higher production reflected another increase in USDA’s estimates for planted and harvested acreage. USDA boosted corn plantings another 1.47 million acres to 98.728 million acres, the highest since 1936.
At the same time, USDA raised U.S. corn exports to a record 2.975 billion bushels, up 100 million from last month’s estimate. Ending stocks were trimmed 7 million bushels to 2.1 billion.
Brain Basting, an economist with Advance Trading, offered some potential strategies in the current environment. “One strategy to consider is the simultaneous sale of production at harvest and the purchase of a call option,” he says. “The sale would lock in a price floor while the call option would enable the participation in potential market rallies. Alternatively, newly harvested 2025 production can be placed into storage while simultaneously purchasing a put option. The put option would provide a floor while also enabling the participation in potential market rallies.”
Corn settlements on Thursday were for 207,674 contracts.
Soybean prices made a solid late-session push
Prices survived a somewhat choppy session after carving out double-digit gains to close out Friday’s session. November futures rose 12.75 cents to $10.4625, with January futures up 12.75 cents to $10.6525.
The rest of the soy complex was also in the green today. October soymeal futures trended 0.5% higher, while October soyoil futures rising almost 1.25% higher.
Private exporters announced to USDA the sale of 22,000 metric tons of soyoil for delivery to South Korea during the 2025-26 marketing year, which begins October 1.
USDA slightly lowered its average nationwide soybean yield estimate to 53.5 bushels per acre in todays’ WASDE report. Analysts were expecting a slightly larger cut, with an average trade guess of 53.3 bpa. Production is pegged at 4.3 billion bushels. Demand clues were mixed, with estimated crush raised 15 million bushels to a record 2.555 billion bushels, while exports were reduced by 20 million bushels, to 1.685 billion bushels, a six-year low.
Ahead of the next monthly report from the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA), out next Monday, traders are anticipating an August crush totaling 182.857 million bushels. That would be 6.6% below July’s volume but 13.3% above August 2024’s volume, if realized.
In Brazil, CONAB raised its estimates for the country’s 2024-25 soybean production by another 70.5 million bushels with a new projection of 6.3 billion bushels. That seals Brazil’s status as the world’s top soybean producer and is set to increase its 2025-26 plantings by another 1.2%, with an estimated 119.129 million acres.
Soybean settlements on Thursday were for 175,654 contracts.
Winter wheat prices gathered some spillover support
Strength from a broad set of other commodities – corn and soybeans, in particular – helped prices close higher on Friday in the ensuing round of technical buying. December Chicago SRW futures added 2 cents to $5.2350, with December Kansas City HRW futures rising 4.75 cents to $5.1475.
USDA upped its demand expectations for wheat, increasing estimates by 25 million bushels to 900 million, citing strong sales and shipments so far for hard red winter wheat. Domestic supplies tightened by 25 million bushels to 844 million.
Globally, wheat supplies are at near-record levels after USDA raised its estimates by another 330.7 million bushels to 39.6 billion. That was largely driven by production increases by several key producers, including Australia, the European Union, Russia, Ukraine, Canada and others.
And finally, do you feel glued to your smartphone in an unhealthy way? Illinois farmer Betty Haynes (previously with our sister publication Prairie Farmer) found herself asking some tough questions. “How many hours a day do my kids look to me, only to see my eyes buried in my phone?” she says. “And what are the long-term implications of that screen usage on both my development and theirs?” Haynes explored this topic in greater depth in her latest Where I Come From blog – click here to learn more.
CBOT wheat settlements on Thursday were for 98,511 contracts.