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Analysts pretty accurately predicted USDA’s key data points in the agency’s highly anticipated acreage and quarterly stocks reports that were released this morning. Traders also appear to have baked in those expectations (more on this below), which led to mostly modest price changes to start the week. Corn prices saw September futures shift 2.5 cents lower, with August soybeans also slightly in the red today. Wheat prices were mixed.
Scattered showers will deliver variable rainfall to most of the Midwest and Plains between Tuesday and Friday, although very few fields will gather more than 0.5” through Independence Day, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Later on, NOAA’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts seasonally warm, wet weather for most of the central U.S. between July 7 and July 13.
On Wall St., the Dow tracked 117 points higher in afternoon trading to 43,937 as Q2 is set to come to a close today. Investors also are waiting to see what might happen when President Trump’s 90-day tariff pauses are set to expire next week. Energy futures faced mild to moderate cuts, with crude oil sinking 0.75% lower this afternoon, staying just above $65 per barrel. Gasoline futures eased 0.25% lower. The U.S. Dollar softened moderately.
On Friday, commodity funds were net buyers of corn (+10,000), soybeans (+5,500), soymeal (+3,000) and CBOT wheat (+1,000) contracts but were net sellers of soyoil (-1,000).
Corn faced mixed results on Monday
Some uneven technical maneuvering kept the soon-expiring July contracts in the green, while September futures shifted lower. July futures added 3.5 cents to $4.21, while September futures dropped 2.5 cents to $4.09.
USDA revised its estimate for 2025 U.S. corn plantings to 95.203 million acres, down from 95.326 million acres forecast in the March Prospective Plantings report and under the average analyst projection of 93.35 million acres. Acreage estimates ranged from 93.75 million acres to 96.8 million acres. The updated corn acreage would still be the biggest since 2013 and the third-most for any year since 1944, if realized.
Corn export inspections eased modestly lower after reaching 53.9 million bushels in the week through June 26. That was on the lower end of analyst estimates, which ranged between 49.2 million and 65.5 million bushels. Mexico was the No. 1 destination, with 15.5 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2024/25 marketing year remain substantially above last year’s pace, with 2.163 billion bushels.
Ahead of Monday afternoon’s crop progress report from USDA, analysts expect the agency to hold corn ratings steady, with 70% of the crop in good-to-excellent condition through June 29. Individual trade guesses ranged between 68% and 71%.
Brazilian consultancy AgRural raised its forecast for the country’s total corn production in 2024/25, offering a record-breaking estimate of 5.141 billion bushels. This revision is due to higher expectations for Brazil’s second corn crop, with typically accounts for 75% to 80% of its total production. Harvest progress reached 18% through last Thursday, which is noticeably below last season’s pace of 49% so far.
Corn settlements on Friday were for 473,560 contracts.
Soybean prices shifted slightly lower
Prices were moving steadily higher overnight and this morning before dropping sharply immediately following USDA’s acreage and quarterly stocks reports and were unable to recover afterward. July futures dropped 3.5 cents to $10.2425, with August futures down 2.75 cents to $10.3050.
Private exporters announced to USDA the sale of 204,000 metric tons of soymeal for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2025/26 marketing year, which begins October 1.
Soybean plantings were adjusted to 88.38 million acres, down from 83.495 million acres in March and below the average analyst estimate of about 83.655 million acres. USDA’s updated soybean acreage would be down 4.2% from 87.05 million acres seeded in 2024.
Soybean export inspections improved slightly but remained lackluster after reaching 8.3 million bushels in the week through June 26. That was on the lower end of analyst estimates, which ranged between 5.5 million and 14.7 million bushels. Mexico was the top destination, with 4.2 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2024/25 marketing year are still trending moderately above last year’s pace, with 1.685 billion bushels.
Prior to this afternoon’s crop progress report from USDA, analysts think soybean quality will shift a point higher, with 67% rated in good-to-excellent condition through June 29. Individual trade guesses ranged between 65% and 69%.
South Korea purchased 120,000 metric tons of soymeal, expected to be sourced from the United States, China or South America, in a tender that closed earlier today. The grain is for arrival in mid-October.
Soybean settlements on Friday were for 247,255 contracts.
Winter wheat prices continued to struggle
Prices have been hard-pressed to find much forward momentum in recent sessions, and Monday was no exception after traders resumed a pattern of technical selling. September Chicago SRW futures dropped 3.25 cents to $5.3750, with September Kansas City HRW futures down 6.75 cents to $5.27.
USDA estimated all U.S. wheat seedings in 2025 at 45.478 million acres, up from 43.35 million acres in the March forecast and about 40 million acres above expectations. Winter wheat acres were pegged at 33.325 million acres, up from 33.315 million acres in March and about 26 million acres above the average trade estimate.
Wheat export inspections improved moderately in the week through June 26 after reaching 12.6 million bushels. That was also toward the higher end of analyst estimates, which ranged between 7.3 million and 16.5 million bushels. Indonesia was the No. 1 destination, with 2.8 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2025/26 marketing year are off to a somewhat slower start versus last year’s pace after reaching 47.0 million bushels.
Ahead of this afternoon’s crop progress report from USDA, analysts expect the agency to show winter wheat quality hold steady, with 49% of the crop rated in good-to-excellent condition through Sunday. Analysts also think USDA will leave spring wheat ratings unchanged, with 54% of the crop in good-to-excellent condition over the same period.
Argus Media trimmed its estimates for Ukraine’s 2025 wheat harvest after offering a new forecast of 804.0 million bushels. That would be 2.5% below last season’s production, if realized. Ukraine is one of the world’s top wheat exporters.
Jordan issued an international tender to purchase up to 4.4 million bushels of milling wheat from optional origins that closes on Tuesday. The grain is for shipment between mid-September and mid-November.
CBOT wheat settlements on Friday were for 104,330 contracts.