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Winter wheat prices were the big winners on Tuesday, with some contracts up as much as 1.5% higher thanks to a round of bargain buying. A solid round of export inspection data, coupled with a flurry of overseas international tenders, was enough to grab these gains. Corn prices were also firm today, while soybeans suffered a minor technical setback.
Rain over the next few days will largely be relegated to parts of the Plains and upper Midwest, with few areas likely to see more than 0.25” fall between Wednesday and Saturday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Later on, NOAA’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts some seasonally wet weather for a sizeable chunk of the Corn Belt between October 21 and October 27, with warmer-than-normal temperatures likely for the Midwest and Plains during this time.
On Wall St., the Dow climbed 399 points higher in afternoon trading to 46,466 as investors attempted to put the latest U.S. / China trade threats in the rearview mirror as top officials are still set to meet in person at the end of October. Energy futures moved moderately lower, with Brent crude oil down more than 1.25% this afternoon to fall back below $63 per barrel. Gasoline futures were down around 1%. The U.S. Dollar softened moderately.
Corn prices found some mild upside
Prices benefited from another solid round of corn export inspection data, and as the U.S. could nab some more sales to Taiwan in an international tender that expires tomorrow. December futures added 2.25 cents to $4.13, with March futures up 2 cents to $4.2925.
Absent USDA’s crop progress report updates, analysts think the 2025 corn harvest is 44% complete through October 12, up from 29% in the prior week. Analysts also think quality ratings eased a point lower this past week, with 64% of the crop in good-to-excellent condition.
Corn export inspections reached 44.5 million bushels in the week through October 9. That was a weekly decline of almost 34%. Mexico, Spain, Japan, South Korea and Portugal were the top five destinations. Cumulative totals for the 2025-26 marketing year are running well ahead of last year’s pace so far after reaching 312.6 million bushels.
“Farmers with grain in on-farm storage have three options to capture the carry, additional opportunities to re-own the crop to grab a future price rally and plenty of incentive to lock in corn sales now,” according to JJ Keske, ag risk management advisor with Advance Trading. Keske walks through some potential strategies in today’s Ag Marketing IQ blog – click here to learn more.
David Kohl, professor emeritus with Virginia Tech University and contributing writer for Farm Futures, argues that there are three financial practices in particular that can aid beginning farmers. That includes tracking financial performance, mastering cash flow and executing a marketing and risk management plan. Kohl expands on these ideas in his latest blog – click here to learn more.
Brazil’s CONAB estimates that the country’s 2025-26 corn production will reach 5.46 billion bushels, which is slightly above its prior projection.
Taiwan issued an international tender to purchase up to 2.6 million bushels of feed corn from optional origins that closes on Wednesday. The grain is for arrival in April 2026. The United States has a solid chance of landing this tender after Taiwan recently committed to purchasing $10 billion in U.S. agricultural products.
Corn settlements on Monday were for 266,115 contracts.
Soybean prices faced minor cuts
A bout of late-session technical buying wasn’t enough to get prices back into the green, although losses ended up being minimal. November futures dropped 1.25 cents to $10.0650, while January futures eased a penny lower to $10.2425.
The rest of the soy complex was lightly mixed. December soymeal futures tested fractional gains, while December soyoil futures eased fractionally lower.
Soybean export inspections were down 27% week-over-week after reaching 36.5 million bushels. Mexico, Spain, Bangladesh, Italy and the Netherlands were the top five destinations. Cumulative totals for the 2025-26 marketing year are moderately below last year’s pace so far after reaching 148.5 million bushels.
“When is bad news for grain markets good news for growers?” wonders grain market analyst Bryce Knorr. “Bombshells big enough to rock Wall Street can ripple all the way to the Midwest, swelling into buying opportunities for farmers looking to hedge input needs for the coming year.” In particular, “battered markets” can reduce fuel and fertilizer prices enough to benefit input buyers. Knorr explores the situation in detail in yesterday’s Ag Marketing IQ blog – click here to learn more.
Absent UDSA’s crop progress updates, private surveys suggest that soybean harvest progress has reached 58% completion through October 12.
CONAB fractionally reduced its estimates for the Brazil’s 2025-26 soybean production after offering a new estimates of 6.527 billion bushels. Brazil’s soybean output is now outpacing U.S. production by 45% to 50%.
Soybean settlements on Monday were for 287,896 contracts.
Winter wheat prices shifted higher on Tuesday
Prices benefited from a round of technical buying and short-covering that led to variable gains today. December futures rose 3.75 cents to $5.0025, while December Kansas City HRW futures climbed 7.25 cents to $4.8850.
Absent USDA’s crop progress report, private analysts think 66% of the 2025-26 winter wheat crop has been planted. That’s an above-average pace amid generally favorable planting conditions. Mid-October is typically the peak planting period for the U.S. winter wheat crop.
Wheat export inspections faded 19% lower week-over-week after reaching 16.3 million bushels. Indonesia, Japan, Mexico, the Philippines and Nigeria were the top five destinations. Cumulative totals for the 2025-26 marketing year are 18.1% above last year’s pace so far after reaching 391.8 million bushels.
Saudi Arabia purchased 18.4 million bushels of wheat from optional origins in an international tender that closed earlier today. Australia and Brazil were among the primary suppliers. The grain is for delivery in April 2026. This is the fourth major wheat purchase by Saudi Arabia so far this year.
South Korea issued an international tender to purchase 3.5 million bushels of wheat from the United States and/or Canada that closes on Wednesday. The grain is likely for shipment between two and four months after contracts are signed.
CBOT wheat settlements on Monday were for 92,542 contracts.