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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.
What we’re watching
Despite nearly four years of war with Russia, Ukraine’s ag sector has stayed resilient and the country remains a major grain producer and exporter. Threats of war-related disruptions to Black Sea shipping have recently sparked market volatility and may continue to do so, meaning U.S. farmers should keep close tabs on Ukraine next year, Farm Futures Senior Editor Ben Potter says.
Corn locked in sideways pattern
March corn futures fell 1.5 cents to $4.45 late in overnight trading after gaining 2.25 cents Thursday to $4.4650. Futures are little changed from $4.4475 at the end of last week.
Corn extended sideways consolidation overnight but looks to close the week on a soft note, with March futures closing Thursday back under the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), currently $4.4675, and testing support at the 20-day SMA (around $4.44). The market retains near-term support at last week’s low around $4.42 and the 50-day SMA ($4.4150) but faces stiff resistance just above $4.50.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price rose about 2.5 cents Thursday to slightly below $4.0125. Thursday’s cash average was about 45 cents below March futures, narrowing from 55.25 cents a month earlier.
The corn market remains locked in a neutral-sideways pattern that could persist into the holidays with bullish and bearish forces battling to a stalemate and little fresh news on the horizon. Strong export demand continues to underpin prices but rallies likely will be capped by burdensome supplies and weakness in soybeans.
USDA early Thursday reported net weekly export sales for the week ended November 13 as the government continued to catch up on data delayed by the government shutdown. Corn sales remained at a record pace as expected.
Net U.S. corn sales during the week ended November totaled 2.38 million metric tons (93.7 million bushels), above trade expectations that ranged from 800,000 metric tons (MT) to 2 MMT and the second-highest weekly total of the year so far. Corn sales commitments (including accumulated exports) for the 2025-26 marketing year through November 13 totaled 1.603 billion bushels, up 30% from the same period in 2024-25.
Elsewhere, Brazil’s National Supply Company, known as Conab, lowered its estimate for the country’s 2026 corn crop slightly to 138.84 MMT (5.47 billion bushels) while keeping exports steady at 46.5 MMT. Second-crop corn production is seen holding steady at 110.46 MMT.
USDA’s Supply and Demand update earlier this week illustrated bullish demand dynamics as 2025-26 corn exports were revised higher for the fourth straight month, to a record 3.2 billion bushels. USDA also reduced its outlook for U.S. corn supplies at the end of 2025-26 by 125 million bushels, to 2.029 billion bushels, and cut its global ending corn stocks forecast to 279.2 million metric tons (11 billion bushels), the lowest since 2013-14.
Soybeans heading for second weekly decline
January soybeans fell 8.75 cents to $10.8475 late overnight after adding 2.25 cents Thursday to $10.9350, the contract’s second consecutive daily gain following three down days. Prices are down from $11.0525 at the end of last week and heading for a second straight weekly loss.
Soybean technicals took a bearish turn overnight as January futures dropped back under the 50-day SMA ($10.93) and neared a six-week intraday low at $10.8150, posted Wednesday. Failure to hold this week’s lows could prompt bears to press for the $10.70 area, which marks the top of a gap left in the daily bar chart from late October. Other downside levels to watch include the 100-day SMA (about $10.6825). Futures are down about 86 cents, or 7.4%, over the past three weeks.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price rose about 2.25 cents Thursday to $10.23. Thursday’s average was roughly 70.5 cents below January futures, narrowing from 74 cents a month earlier.
January soybean meal fell $1.70 to $300.40 per ton after gaining 90 cents Thursday to break a nine-day losing streak that sent the market to a six-week low. January soybean oil fell 40 points to 50.42 cents per pound after dropping Thursday to the market’s lowest close in over two weeks.
Thursday’s price gains proved to be short-lived even after confirmation of additional China soybean business. Even with China stepping up purchases, U.S. soybean exports remain down sharply from last year’s levels and another record crop is in the works in Brazil, keeping bearish pressure on the market.
Early Thursday, USDA reported private exporter soybean sales totaling 264,000 metric tons (9.7 million bushels) for delivery to China during 2025-26. USDA also reported a combined 412,000 MT in soybean sales to “unknown destinations,” also for 2025-26 delivery.
Thursday’s announcement brought recent USDA-confirmed Chinese purchases to a total of 3.24 MMT (119.2 million bushels). That’s about 27% of the 12 MMT the White House initially said China would purchase by the end of 2025. Earlier this week, Trump officials said there was a “discrepancy” in the previously-announced time frame and that they now expect the 12-MMT target to be reached by the end of February.
Net U.S. soybean sales during the week ended November 13 totaled a disappointing 696,000 MT (25.6 million bushels), compared to expectations at 600,000 MT to 1.4 MMT. Outstanding soybean sales commitments and shipments to China totaled just 364,000 MT, a fraction of the 14.7 MMT booked during the comparable period in 2024-25.
Overall, U.S. soybean sales commitments for 2025-26 through November 13 totaled 676.1 million bushels, down 41% from the same period in 2024-25 and a 17-year low for this point in the marketing year.
Elsewhere, Conab lowered its 2025-26 Brazilian soybean production estimate by 0.3% to 177.12 MMT (6.51 billion bushels) and reduced exports slightly to 112 MMT. Dryness had been a concern in some key growing areas, but recent rains have bolstered prospects for another record crop.
Soybeans have dropped from 17-month highs but there are still potentially favorable pricing opportunities as 2026 nears. Ag economist Ed Usset urges farmers to act strategically, spread out sales and prepare to pounce when the time is right. And don’t rule out $5 corn next year, Usset said in our latest Ag Marketing IQ In Depth interview with Farm Futures Executive Editor Pam Caraway.
Wheat extends six-week slide
March SRW wheat fell 3.75 cents to $5.2975 after gaining 4 cents Thursday to $5.3350, the contract’s first advance in five days. Futures are down from $5.3575 at the end of last week and poised for a sixth consecutive weekly decline.
March HRW futures fell 2.75 cents to $5.1950 after slipping 1 cent Thursday to $5.2225, the contract’s fourth decline in the past five days and a seven-week closing low. March spring wheat fell 0.5 cent to $5.7575 after adding 1 cent Thursday.
Wheat futures remain under pressure from bearish supply fundamentals and were further burdened overnight by weakness in corn and soybeans. Potential disruption to Black Sea shipping from the Russia-Ukraine war flared up earlier this week but appears to have faded into the background for now.
Most of the U.S. winter wheat crop has moved into winter dormancy and a brief cold snap this weekend is not viewed as a concern, but Plains temperatures are expected to climb above normal levels next week.
USDA reported net U.S. wheat sales for the week ended November 13 at 850,000 MT (31.2 million bushels), above expectations and the second-highest weekly total of the year to date. Wheat sales commitments (including accumulated exports) for the 2025-26 marketing year through November 13 totaled 666 million bushels, up 24% from the same period in 2024-25 and a nine-year high.
Elsewhere, the Rosario Grains Exchange raised its 2025-26 Argentine wheat production estimate by 13% to 27.7 MMT (1.02 billion bushels), well-above the previous record crop of 23 MMT in 2021-22 and above USDA’s 24 MMT forecast. The exchange said the wheat harvest was 58% complete.
USDA’s Supply and Demand update earlier this week underscored the wheat market’s bearish supply outlook. Expected global ending wheat stocks were hiked to 274.9 MMT, up 5.7% from 2024-25 and a four-year high. Production was raised to 837.8 MMT, up 4.6% from last year and a record for the sixth year in a row.
Temperatures warming above normal next week
A weekend cold snap is expected to send temperatures across much of the Midwest tumbling into the single digits before a warm-up arrives early next week that may extend to Christmas.
Both National Weather Service’s latest 6-to-10-day and 8-to-14-day outlooks, which cover December 17-25, show warmer air expanding out of the Southwest into the Plains and Midwest, boosting temperatures to above-normal levels. Both outlooks also carry expanded prospects for above-normal precipitation in the Northern Plains, Great Lakes and eastern Corn Belt.
AI concerns weigh on tech sector
Stock index futures fell overnight as ongoing concerns over an AI bubble weighed on the technology sector even after strength in other sectors lifted major averages to record levels.
Futures based on the S&P 500 index fell over 0.1% and Nasdaq-100 futures dropped almost 0.6%, while Dow futures rose 0.2%. Both the underlying S&P 500 and Dow industrials ended at all-time highs Thursday.
The U.S. dollar index was up less than 0.2% in a modest rebound from a seven-week low hit Thursday. January WTI crude oil futures fell 7 cents to $57.53 per barrel. Gold futures surged 1.3% to a seven-week high around $4,369 per ounce, fueled by lower U.S. interest rates and safe-haven buying.