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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.
What we’re watching
Farmers coming off a difficult 2025 are looking at a similar picture for 2026: below-breakeven grain prices, high input costs, tight margins. But it’s still early and much remains in flux, says Matt Bennett, CEO of AgMarket.Net. He recommends patience with marketing strategy, noting farmers retain a key ally in strong corn demand. “I want to kind of wait and see how this thing plays out.”
How’s your acreage mix shaping up this year? We’re curious. Please take a moment to fill out Farm Futures’ annual planting intentions survey. Your responses will be kept anonymous, and you can enter a drawing to win one of five $50 Amazon cards! Click here to access the survey.
Corn exports show resurgence
March corn futures fell 1 cent to $4.3025 per bushel in late overnight trading after earlier rising to $4.3175, the contract’s highest intraday price since Monday. Futures added 3.75 cents Thursday to close at a one-week high but are little changed from $4.3025 at the end of last week.
Corn futures regained firmer technical footing with Thursday’s gains, which lifted March futures to the contract’s first close above the 10-day simple moving average (SMA), currently $4.2950, in four days. Prices have moved back into the upper end of the past three weeks’ range but upside may be limited with sideways consolidation likely ahead of the three-day holiday weekend.
Upside levels in March futures to watch include $4.36, the intraday high so far for February. Downside levels to watch include this week’s low at $4.2525.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price rose almost 3.75 cents Thursday to about $3.9775. Thursday’s average was 33.5 cents under March futures, narrowing from 33.25 cents a week earlier.
Corn futures climbed Thursday behind spillover strength from rallying soybeans and wheat as well as stronger than expected weekly export sales numbers. But upside momentum slowed overnight and the market may close out the week with narrow-range sideways action, with many traders likely unwilling to push the market much higher ahead of the three-day weekend.
The corn market may remain a follower next week with little fresh market-centric news on the horizon and bearish supply fundamentals hanging over the market. USDA Supply and Demand update earlier this week included some price-friendly numbers on export demand, but the market still faces a heavy supply overhang this year.
Early Thursday, USDA said net U.S. corn sales during the week ended February 5 totaled 2.07 million metric tons (81.5 million bushels), nearly double the previous week’s figure and 6% above the average for the previous four weeks. Sales surpassed the high end of expectations by over 500,000 metric tons and were led by Japan at 616,600 MT.
For the 2025-26 marketing year to date, sales commitments (including accumulated exports) now total 2.394 billion bushels, up 31% from the same period in 2024-25 and almost 73% of USDA’s just-increased full-year export target at 3.3 billion bushels, a record.
This week’s strong export numbers followed another hike in USDA’s forecast that was included in Tuesday’s monthly Supply and Demand update. USDA has raised its forecast for 2025-26 U.S. corn exports four times since August, most recently a 100-million-bushel bump this week.
Tuesday’s report also reflected a slightly tighter corn balance sheet. USDA trimmed U.S. 2025-26 ending corn stocks 100 million bushels, to an estimated 2.127 billion bushels, though that would still be a 37% jump from 2024-25. The global balance sheet also tightened, with 2025-26 ending stocks trimmed 0.7% to 289 million metric tons (11.4 billion bushels).
Catch up on the highlights USDA’s latest Supply and Demand report in the Farm Futures recap.
Elsewhere, Brazil’s National Supply Company, known as Conab, lowered its estimate for the country’s corn production by 0.3% to 138.45 MMT (5.45 billion bushels), with second-crop output down 1.1% to 109.3 MMT.
Farmers should be on the lookout for bridge payment notifications from their local Farm Service Agency, Richard Fordyce, a USDA undersecretary, said recently. An online portal and a modernized format are on the horizon. At a February 5 conference in Arkansas, Fordyce shared details on what farmers can expect with Delta Farm Press writer Whitney Shannon Heckel.
Soybeans pull back from 10-week highs
March soybeans fell 8.75 cents to $11.2850 overnight after surging another 13.25 cents Thursday to $11.3725, the contract’s seventh advance in the past eight days and its highest close since December 1. Futures are up from $11.1525 at the end of last week. New-crop November futures fell 1.75 cents to $11.1450, keeping the soybean-corn ratio near a 2 ½-month high around 2.41.
Soybeans had a modest corrective pullback overnight but remain in a sharp uptrend from early-February lows. Technicals took a bullish turn, with March soybeans up almost 80 cents from a February 2 low around $10.52. But the market is approaching overbought levels, with March futures at just under 70 on the Relative Strength Index, which may encourage profit-taking ahead of the weekend.
Upside levels to watch in March futures include Thursday’s two-month intraday high at $11.4150. A close above the $11.40 area could have bulls targeting the December intraday high at $11.4975 and the November high at $11.7250.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price rose almost 13.5 cents Thursday to about $10.7150. Thursday’s average was about 65.75 cents below March futures, widening from 65.5 cents a week earlier.
March soybean meal was unchanged at $307.90 per ton after jumping 1.6% Thursday to the contract’s highest close since December 24. March soyoil fell 68 points to 56.86 cents per pound after gaining almost 1% Thursday to 57.54 cents, the highest settlement for a most-active contract since September 2023.
Soybeans saw some corrective selling overnight but remain buoyed by demand-driven optimism tied to hopes for additional Chinese business and higher federal biofuels mandates. The accelerating bullishness has all but overwhelmed a largely bearish fundamental reality, including slumping export sales and the accelerating harvest of what’s expected to be a massive Brazil crop.
USDA’s export sales report Thursday confirmed additional China purchases but also reflected an extended slump overall sales.
Net U.S. soybean sales fell to a marketing-year low at 281,800 MT (10.4 million bushels) during the week ended February 5, down 36% from the previous week and down 80% from the four-week average. Sales missed the low end of expectations, which ranged from 300,000 MT to 1.1 MMT. China led buyers at 286,100 MT, including 201,000 MT switched from “unknown destinations.”
“USDA is simply confirming business that we already knew was to China,” StoneX analyst Arlan Suderman said in a note Thursday. “Otherwise, U.S. prices are too expensive relative to cheaper new crop Brazilian supplies.”
Exports for the marketing year that began September 1 continued to sharply lag last year after China stopped buying U.S. beans for about six months in 2025 amid a trade dispute with the Trump administration. For 2025-26 to date, U.S. export commitments (including accumulated exports) now total 1.27 billion bushels, down 20% from the same period last year and a six-year low.
Based on Thursday’s report, USDA-confirmed China purchases for 2025-26 total about 10.2 MMT (373.8 million bushels). However, China is believed to have already met a 12-MMT near-term target stemming from last fall’s Beijing-Washington trade truce. That would still leave China’s purchase commitments down sharply from roughly 20.6 MMT at this point in 2024-25.
Elsewhere, Brazil’s Conab raised its estimate for the country’s 2025-26 soybean crop by 1.9 MMT, or 1.1%, to 178 MMT (6.54 billion bushels), and boosted exports 3.7% to 112.2 MMT. Also, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange kept its forecast for the 2025-26 Argentine soybean crop unchanged at 48.5 MMT, matching USDA’s projection.
Wheat exports show further improvement
March SRW wheat fell 6 cents to $5.4650 after rallying 15.25 cents Thursday to $5.5250, the contract’s highest close since November 18. Futures are up from $5.2975 at the end of last week and on track for a fifth weekly advance in the past six weeks.
March HRW wheat fell 7.75 cents to $5.4625 after climbing 8 cents Wednesday to $5.3850, a six-month closing high. March spring wheat fell 2.75 cents to $5.7475.
Wheat futures followed corn and soybeans higher Thursday, which helped fuel fund short covering that allowed SRW and HRW futures to break out above recent trading ranges. Signs of improvement in export demand also encouraged wheat buyers.
Net U.S. wheat sales for the week ended February 5 totaled 488,000 MT (17.9 million bushels), up 31% from the previous week and up 14% from the average for the previous four weeks. Sales came in at the high end of expectations and were led by the Philippines at 127,000 MT, followed by Mexico at 110,800 MT.
For 2025-26 to date, U.S. wheat sales commitments (including accumulated exports) now total 819.7 million bushels, up almost 17% from the same period in 2024-25 and 91% of USDA’s full-year target of 900 million bushels.
Price upside likely will be limited by bearish supply fundamentals underscored by USDA’s Supply and Demand report earlier this week. USDA unexpectedly raised its outlook for 2025-26 U.S. wheat ending stocks, pushing up supplies by 5 million bushels to 931 million bushels, up almost 9% from 2024-25.
However, estimated global ending stocks shrank 0.3% to 277.5 MMT, contrary to expectations for little change. Global stocks are still on track to expand nearly 7% from last year to a five-year high. Among top wheat producers, Argentina’s estimated crop was raised 1.1% to a record 27.8 MMT.
Plains weather will be increasingly in market focus as spring nears. There is a 60% chance of a shift in the climate phenomenon known as La Niña towards El Niño in February-April 2026, with this pattern, known as ENSO-neutral, likely to persist through the Northern Hemisphere summer, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center said Thursday, according to Reuters.
“Atmospheric anomalies weakened due to subseasonal variability, but still reflected aspects of La Niña,” the U.S. weather forecaster said. “Low-level westerly wind anomalies were present over the western equatorial Pacific, and upper-level westerly wind anomalies continued across the east-central equatorial Pacific.”
“There are signs that La Niña is weakening, and neutral ENSO conditions should return in the next couple of months,” said Jason Nicholls, a forecaster at AccuWeather, adding that a transition to El Niño conditions could begin in late spring. El Niño has been associated with wetter-than-normal conditions in the southern U.S. and Plains, as well as dryness in the Midwest.
Stock index futures retreat ahead of inflation data
Stock index futures fell overnight following a down session Thursday as investors readied for today’s January Consumer Price Index report, which will influence expectations for inflation and Federal Reserve interest rate policy in the months ahead.
Futures based on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 indexes each fell almost 0.3%, while Dow futures fell over 0.2%. The U.S. dollar index was up over 0.1% as the benchmark extended a modest rebound after dropping to a low for the month Wednesday.
March WTI crude oil futures fell 48 cents to $62.36 per barrel and were heading for a weekly loss of almost 2% following a Reuters report that OPEC+ was leaning toward resuming oil production increases. Gold futures gained almost 0.9% at about $4,992 per ounce.