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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.
What we’re watching
For grain markets, the year ahead is shaping up to be one defined by abundant supplies and subdued prices, barring a major supply shock or geopolitical disruption. "It might be tricky this year to see corn futures climb above $5 or soybean futures above $12,” Total Farm Marketing’s Naomi Blohm says in our latest Ag Marketing IQ In Depth video. Cost analysis and timely action are essential to capitalize on brief price rallies.
Also late on December 31, USDA announced eligible commodities that triggered a payment due to disruptions from the Trump Administration seeking new trade deals with various nations, including China – which stopped buying U.S. grain for multiple weeks this fall. Those per-acre payment rates include:
- Corn: $44.36
- Cotton: $117.35
- Sorghum: $48.11
- Soybeans: $30.88
- Wheat: $39.35
Timelines for these payments are still “under development,” according to a USDA press release.
Corn hoping for a ’26 rebound
March corn futures awaited a market restart following the New Year’s Day holiday on Thursday after easing 0.25 cent Wednesday to $4.4025, the contract’s fourth consecutive daily decline and its lowest close since December 16. Futures are down from $4.50 at the end of last week
Technicals continued to erode overnight as March futures extended a sell-off from a six-week high of $4.53 posted last Friday. Prices have dropped under several near- and long-term simple moving averages and may be heading for a test of the 100-day SMA at $4.3850. This week’s slide has sent futures toward the lower end of the past two months’ range, with critical support seen at the November and December intraday lows around $4.35.
Wednesday’s cash average was about 43.75 cents below March futures, narrowing from roughly 46 cents at the beginning of December.
Grain markets ended 2025 on a weak note amid speculator profit-taking in light-volume trade. Corn futures appear on the verge of a chart breakdown that sets the market up for a weak start to 2026, though prices could settle into consolidation mode the first full week of the year if funds are reluctant to further press the downside ahead of USDA’s January 12 crop reports.
Lack of progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks means Black Sea disruptions remain a risk, but South American weather continues to be largely bearish for U.S. prices, with recent rains in key Brazil growing areas keeping the potential for a record-breaking harvest quite alive.
Bulls may still be able to hang their hats on hopes that strong export and ethanol demand continues into the new year and prevents futures from penetrating the late-2025 lows. There’s also the potential for bullish surprises in USDA’s January 12 WASDE reports, as was the case a year ago.
Early today, USDA is scheduled to report export sales for the week ended December 18 as the agency continued to whittle down backlogged data that went unreleased during the government shutdown. USDA should be caught up by the first full week of January, with sales for the weeks ended December 25 and January 1 scheduled for January 5 and January 8, respectively.
Sales numbers reported last week continued to show robust demand for corn from Mexico, Japan and other top buyers. Net U.S. corn sales for the week ended December 18 totaled 2.202 million metric tons (86.7 million bushels), up 26% from the previous week and a five-week high. Mexico was the week’s top buyer at 832,200 metric tons.
Sales commitments for the 2025-26 marketing year to date (including accumulated exports) now total 1.96 billion bushels, up 31% from the same period in 2024-25.
Year-to-date corn sales exceed the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's record large target by nearly 300 million bushels, according to StoneX analyst Arlan Suderman. That may prompt another hike in USDA’s 2025-26 export outlook, which is already pegged at a record 3.2 billion bushels.
The weak farm economy hit equipment manufacturers hard in 2025, though some dealers reported sales upticks in the waning months. It may not seem like the best time to pony up for a tractor or combine, but there are at least four need-to-knows farmers can use to navigate the equipment market to their advantage, Prairie Farmer’s Ava Splear writes.
Recent Chinese purchases fail to support soybeans
March soybeans tumbled 14.75 cents Wednesday to $10.4750, the contract’s fourth consecutive daily decline and its lowest settlement since October 16. Futures are down from $10.7250 at the end of last week and poised for a fourth weekly drop in the past five weeks.
Hopes for a soybean market bottom were dashed by a New Year’s Eve sell-off that sent March futures plunging under a mid-December low and also below $10.50. March futures have closed under the 200-day SMA (currently about $10.66) the past three days, and bears may be aiming for the $10.40 area and mid-October lows around $10.33. However, the market is also approaching oversold levels that could give sellers pause early in the new year.
This week’s selling has been driven by speculator profit-taking. Funds sold 21,000 soybean futures contracts the past four days, according to a StoneX estimate.
Soybeans remain burdened by crop-friendly weather in Brazil that’s bolstering prospects the country will reap another blowout harvest in 2026. Rains reached key growing areas in Brazil during the second half of December, and while Argentina has been drier, some rain relief may arrive in early 2026.
China’s recent stepped-up purchases have done little to stem price downside, indicating market focus is shifting increasingly to South American weather and a strong production outlook.
Early Tuesday, USDA reported private exporter soybean sales totaling 136,000 MT (5 million bushels) for delivery to China during 2025-26. On Wednesday, USDA reported net U.S. soybean sales for the week ended December 18 at 1.056 MMT (38.8 million bushels), down 56% from a marketing-year high the previous week. China was the week’s top buyer at 617,000 MT, bringing the country’s total reported soybean purchases for 2025-26 to about 6.62 MMT (243.2 million bushels).
The latest USDA figure comprises a little over half of the 12 MMT the White House has said China would buy by the end of February. But China’s purchases by now are likely at least 8 MMT when factoring in sales that haven’t yet been confirmed by USDA, as state-owned buyers have continued to book cargoes into late December.
Despite China’s recent buying, the country’s shunning of U.S. soybeans much of the year has exports down sharply from previous years. Overall U.S. soybean export commitments for 2025-26 to date (including accumulated exports) now total 985.8 million bushels, down 32% from the same period last year and a 14-year low.
Wheat markets still ignoring Russia-Ukraine strife
March SRW wheat shed 3.75 cents Wednesday to $5.07, the contract’s fourth straight daily drop and its lowest close since December 17. Futures are down from $5.19 at the end of last week and heading for an eighth weekly decline in the past nine weeks.
Hopes the wheat market may establish a near-term bottom are fading amid this week’s poor technical performance. March SRW futures have closed under the 10-day SMA (currently $5.31) the past four days, which may foreshadow a test of the $5.04 contract low, posted December 17, early in the new year.
March HRW wheat sank 7.25 cents Wednesday for the market’s fourth consecutive daily decline.
Wheat futures have been under pressure this week as traders brushed off early-week concerns over recent Russian attacks on Ukrainian port infrastructure. Disruption to Black Sea grain shipments remains a risk, but that’s being largely overshadowed by abundant global supplies that likely will continue to limit price rallies in 2026.
Although U.S. wheat exports are up from last year’s levels, recent numbers have indicated a demand drop-off. USDA reported net U.S. wheat sales during the week ended December 18 at a disappointing 147,800 MT (5.43 million bushels), down 66% from the previous week and a marketing-year low. Taiwan was the week’s top buyer at 96,700 MT.
For 2025-26 to date, U.S. wheat sales commitments (including accumulated exports) total 731.2 million bushels, up 19% from the same period in 2024-25 and a nine-year high.
Wall St. remains robust
The Dow shifted 187 points in overnight trading to 58,524 as investors are hungry for more big gains in 2026.
The underlying S&P 500 advanced 16.4% last year for a third straight year of double-digit gains. On Christmas Eve, the S&P posted a record close near 6,930. The Nasdaq Composite soared over 20% for the year behind AI-driven enthusiasm.
The U.S. dollar index was up 0.13% after weakening over 9% last year.
February WTI crude oil futures slumped 0.7% lower to stay just above $57 per barrel. Gold futures climbed more than 1.5% higher to crest $4.409 per ounce.
What else we’re reading at www.FarmFutures.com this morning:
- The past year was certainly eventful and often nerve-wracking for American agriculture. But it wasn’t all about tariffs and China. Beyond the daily headlines were stories of ingenuity, resilience, hope and people working together to solve problems. Read Farm Progress editors’ favorite stories of 2025.