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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.

What we’re watching

Grain markets tagged along as crude oil rallied above $100 per barrel, with December corn futures coming within 2 cents of $5. While an extended crude climb could continue to buoy grains, it’s debatable whether corn can sustain a rally based on fundamentals alone. That raises another question: Is it time to at least consider pricing some new crop? Farm Futures editors Bruce Blythe and Ben Potter discuss in our latest Ag Marketing IQ In Depth video.

Corn futures follow crude oil rally

May corn futures rose 5.75 cents to $4.66 per bushel late in overnight trading after jumping 8 cents Wednesday to $4.6025. December futures rose 4.75 cents to $4.9375.

Corn technicals continued to strengthen overnight with May futures on track to close at the highest level since mid-June. Prices are still over 10 cents below a 10-month high at $4.76 posted at the start of week but could close that gap rapidly if crude oil continues to rally. Upside levels to watch include the May 2025 highs around $4.80. In December futures, Monday’s high of $4.9850 remains within reach.

Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price rose 8 cents Wednesday to almost $4.1675. Wednesday’s average was about 43.5 cents below May futures, widening from 41.5 cents a week earlier.

Corn futures continued to follow crude oil higher overnight amid escalating concerns the Middle East war will cause extended disruptions in global energy markets. April WTI crude futures surged over 6% to almost $93 per barrel late in overnight trading and are up about $27, or 42%, over the past two weeks. Brent crude briefly rose above $100 per barrel.

Iraq halted operations at its oil terminals after two foreign tankers were hit in its waters, and the UK’s maritime security agency said a container vessel was hit off the coast of Dubai. Oil prices rose even after the International Energy Agency on Wednesday said it would release 400 million barrels of oil to address supply disruptions, the largest such action in the organization’s history.

Grain futures likely will continue to closely track the oil market ahead of USDA’s March 31 Prospective Plantings report, which is expected to show a drop in corn plantings.

In February, USDA forecast 2026 U.S. corn plantings at 94 million acres, down almost 5% from a nine-decade high in 2025. But the March 31 report will be the first of the season that incorporates farmer survey data, and acreage numbers could shift in light of recent market moves as well as outside factors, such as the Iran war and its impact on energy and fertilizer supplies.

While President Trump has said the Iran war is nearly complete, “all of our markets remain on edge,” Mark Knight of Farmer's Keeper Financial, LLC, said in a report. The March 31 plantings report is expected to show a drop of 4 million to 5 million in corn acres this year, he noted. Knight added he still sees opportunities to capture upside in old-crop futures.

“Although some have taken profits on the rally, I still like re-owning old crop corn on a pullback to that $4.42 area in May futures,” Knight said.

There’s a wide range of corn expectations for USDA’s weekly export sales report today, but shipments likley will still reflect record demand.

Analysts expect net U.S. corn sales for the week ended March 5 at 800,000 metric tons to 2.2 million metric tons (31.5 million to 86.6 million bushels), based on a Reuters survey. The previous week’s sales totaled 2.203 million metric tons, up 54% from the average for the prior four weeks.

For the 2025-26 marketing year to date, sales commitments (including accumulated exports) now total 2.558 billion bushels, up 31% from the same period in 2024-25 and almost 78% of USDA’s full-year export target at 3.3 billion bushels, a record.

U.S. ethanol production jumped near a record high last week, possibly reflecting the recent upswing in crude oil prices.

Ethanol production averaged 1.126 million barrels per day during the week ended March 6, up 2.8% from the previous week and the highest since a record 1.131 million barrels per day average for the week ended December 12, the Energy Information Administration said Wednesday. Over the past four weeks, output averaged 1.113 million barrels per day, up 3% from the same period in 2025.

Weekly ethanol exports fell 13% to an average of 188,000 barrels per day, down from a five-week high. Ethanol stocks fell 2.7% to 25.6 million barrels and were down 6.6% from a year earlier.

Despite last week’s upswing, recent ethanol production is still running below the 4.7% year-over-year increase that would be needed from March through August to reach USDA’s full-year use target of 5.6 billion bushels, according to StoneX analyst Randy Mittelstaedt.

Ethanol production from mid-March through much of April “typically declines seasonally as plants take maintenance downtime,” he said in a report. The degree of this year's seasonal decline is “likely to have an impact on whether or not the USDA's… ethanol usage (estimate) will be met.”

Soybeans lifted by expected EPA biofuels announcement

May soybeans rose 16 cents to $12.30 overnight after climbing 12.25 cents Wednesday to $12.14, the contract’s fourth gain in the past five days and the highest close for a most-active contract since May 2024. November soybeans rose 6.75 cents to $11.70.

Soybeans technicals strengthened further overnight as May futures climbed back near a 21-month intraday high at $12.3375 posted at the start of the week. A push above that high could set the stage for a move toward longer-term targets, including the $12.50 area and May 2024 highs around $12.58.

Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price rose 12 cents Wednesday to almost $11.3925, the highest since June 2024. Wednesday’s average was about 74.75 cents below May futures, widening from 73.75 cents a week earlier.

May soybean meal rose $4.10 to $319.50 per ton after adding 90 cents Wednesday. May soyoil rose 72 points to 67.88 cents per pound after surging 2.4% Wednesday to 67.16 cents, the highest close for a most-active contract since November 2022.

In addition to support from rallying crude oil, the soybean market has gained additional momentum this week as rumors circulated of an impending announcement from the Environmental Protection Agency on final biofuels blending mandates, known as Renewable Volume Obligations. The rumored figure, around 5.4 billion gallons a year, would mark a sharp increase from 3.35 billion gallons in the current year, signaling greater soybean demand.

“The funds already have huge longs in place in anticipation of that so it's imperative that the final (EPA) ruling matches expectations,” said John Zanker of Farmer’s Keeper. “I suspect it will.”

Optimism over demand has accelerated ahead of a meeting between Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese counterparts this weekend in Paris, which precedes a meeting between President Trump and Xi Jinping around April 1.

USDA’s export sales update today may show some improvement in soybean numbers, which have slumped in recent weeks as China’s purchases tapered off.

Net U.S. soybean sales for the week ended March 5 are seen at 250,000 MT to 800,000 MT (9.19 million to 29.4 million bushels), based on the Reuters survey. The previous week’s sales were 383,500 MT, down 6% from the previous week and down 20% from the four-week average.

Last week’s report had USDA-confirmed China purchases for 2025-26 totaling 10.82 MMT (397.4 million bushels). That still leaves China’s purchase commitments at about half the roughly 21.2 MMT sold by this point in 2024-25.

Wheat joins crude-driven grain rally

March SRW wheat rose 8.25 cents to $6.03 after adding 3.75 cents Wednesday to $5.9475 to halt a two-day slide. Futures are still down almost 39 cents, or 6%, from a brief rally early this week to $6.4175, the highest intraday price for a most-active contract since June 2024.

March HRW wheat rose 7.75 cents to $6.2125 after gaining 4.75 cents Wednesday to $6.1350. March spring wheat rose 6.5 cents to $6.4450 after climbing 3 cents Wednesday.

Wheat futures joined corn and soybeans in a crude-driven rally overnight and gained further support from a dry outlook for the Southern Plains the rest of this month. However, today’s USDA export sales report is expected to continue to reflect dissipating wheat purchases as the U.S. marketing year nears an end.

Net weekly U.S. wheat sales may range from 200,000 MT to 450,000 MT (7.35 million to 16.5 million bushels), based on the Reuters survey. The previous week’s sales totaled 203,100 MT, down 16% from the previous week and down 42% from the four-week average.

For 2025-26 to date, U.S. wheat sales commitments (including accumulated exports) totaled 846.6 million bushels, up almost 14% from the same period in 2024-25 and 94% of USDA’s full-year target of 900 million bushels.

State-level USDA crop ratings earlier this week indicated Southern Plains drought remains a background concern, even though it appeared Oklahoma benefited from last week’s rains.

In Kansas, 56% of the winter wheat crop was rated “good” or “excellent” at the start of this week, down from 58% a week earlier, according to the state’s Department of Agriculture. Topsoil moisture across Kansas was rated 38% “short” or “very short.” Oklahoma’s good-to-excellent rating rose to 24% from 19%, while Texas held unchanged at 16%.

USDA data earlier this week underlined the bearish fundamentals that have limited wheat rallies.

In its monthly Supply and Demand update, USDA’s 2025-26 U.S. wheat ending stocks estimate remained at 931 million bushels, up almost 9% from 2024-25 and a six-year high. Global ending stocks shrank 0.2% to 276.96 MMT. But USDA raised 2025-26 production to 842.12 MMT, up 5.2% from 2024-25 and a record for the sixth year in a row.

Elsewhere, FranceAgriMer slightly lowered its estimate for 2025-26 French soft wheat exports outside the European Union by 1.4% to 7.10 MMT. The agency also raised its estimate for France’s 2025-25 ending soft wheat stocks by 11% to 3.39 MMT, a 16-year high.

Warmer, drier prospects expand later this month

The Southern Plains and eastern Corn Belt should be mostly dry today through Sunday, with only light precipitation expected for the northern parts of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio, based on the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. The northern Belt may receive rains ranging from 0.5 inch to 1.25 inches.

After a brief cold snap early next week, temperatures across much of the Midwest should start warming up and turning drier into late March. The latest 6-to-14-day and 8-to-14-day outlooks from the National Weather Service show above-normal temperatures expanding from the Southwest across the Plains and most of the Corn Belt. Below-normal precipitation chances also expand from the Plains across most of the Midwest.

Wall Street under pressure as oil extends rally

Stock index futures sank overnight as the expanding Middle East conflict pushed oil prices higher and fueled concern over extended disruptions to global markets.

Futures based on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 indexes both fell about 0.5%, while Dow futures dropped 0.6%. The U.S. dollar index was up less than 0.1%.