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Price snapshot as of 6:50 a.m. CST
Overnight trends:
- Corn: Steady to down 1 cent
- Soybeans: Up 2 to 3 cents
- Wheat: Down 4 to 6 cents
With the February WASDE report and USDA’s Agricultural Outlook Forum now in the rearview mirror, traders are returning to speculation about potential U.S. acres and South American harvest progress. There haven’t been a ton of headlines in either of those spaces, however, leading to a mostly quiet session heading into Wednesday. Soybeans tested some mild gains overnight, while winter wheat prices continued to degrade lower. Corn prices wobbled between mild gains and mild losses.
NOTE: Last week’s Agricultural Outlook Forum from USDA was another reminder that spring is just around the corner, and with that comes very important planting decisions. Click here for a quick planting intentions survey. Your answers will remain anonymous, and we will share the full results in the near future. You’ll also have a chance to win one of five $50 Amazon gift cards.
Overseas stock markets were all in the green. European markets were all up around 0.5% in midday trading. Asian markets closed with 1% to 2% gains. Easing fears over tariffs and a strong demand for computer chips were likely the main drivers.
Energy futures were also in the green heading into midweek trading. Brent crude oil futures were up almost 0.5% to move just below $71 per barrel. Gasoline futures were also up around 0.5%. The U.S. Dollar firmed moderately.
The latest 72-hour precipitation map from NOAA shows most rains will be relegated to the Mid-South and Southeast, with some fields set to gather another 1” or more between today and Saturday. Most of the Corn Belt will see zero to trace amounts of rain heading into the weekend. Official 6-to-10-day forecasts predict a return to seasonally wet weather for most of the Midwest and Plains between March 2 and March 6, with warmer-than-normal temperatures likely for the central U.S. during this time.
Meantime, take a quick glimpse at where rains are currently happening:
Corn prices faded slightly lower
There’s still a ton of upside potential for prices, given the record pace of exports, coupled with robust domestic ethanol production (more on that below). But prices eased fractionally lower in overnight trading following some light technical selling. March futures inched half a penny lower to $4.2725, with May futures holding steady at $4.3850.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration will release its next set of domestic ethanol production data later today. Production has been on the rise for two consecutive weeks so far, reaching a daily average of 1.118 million barrels through February 13. The prior five-week average is at 1.083 million barrels per day.
Meantime, the Renewable Fuels Association recently took a look at U.S. ethanol export markets. Canada is the runaway No. 1 buyer of U.S. ethanol, accounting for 36% of all exports. The European Union follows a distant second, with 18%, followed by India (9%), the United Kingdom (8%) and Colombia (6%). Total exports reached a record 2.18 billion gallons last year – click here to learn more.
By some estimates, moving to year-round E15 blends could bump up annual corn usage by around 2.4 billion bushels. But even incremental increases to blending rates would add to demand, notes Naomi Blohm, senior market adviser with Total Farm Solutions. “A modest 1% increase in the current demand would increase corn demand for ethanol by 486 million bushels,” she said. “That alone would help prop up corn futures prices.” Farm Futures executive editor Pam Caraway took a closer look at the situation – click here to learn more.
The put open interest total is at 102,313, versus a call open interest total of 154,441, putting the put/call open interest ratio at 0.66.
Soybean prices still trading on demand optimism
Hopes for improved trade relations with China had prices slightly in the green on Wednesday. High level trade negotiations will resume in a few short weeks, and President Trump’s comments in the State of the Union address signal that he is still focused on trade and assisting U.S. farmers (more on that below). March futures added 1.75 cents to $11.4125, with May futures up 2.25 cents to $11.5750.
The rest of the soy complex was mixed. May soymeal futures tracked 0.6% higher, while May soyoil futures trended 0.33% lower.
You hear it time and time again – focus on what you control. AEI Management Partner David Widmar says that might mean tuning into working capital, cash flow projections, asset management and cash rent negotiations as you head into the 2026 season. Asset management, in particular, is “about positioning ourselves for future opportunities instead of holding onto frustration.” Widmar shares more of his thoughts in the latest Ag Marketing IQ In Depth video – click here to watch.
President Donald Trump gave the 2026 State of the Union address Tuesday evening, and while he didn’t major new agricultural policies, he did address ongoing trad policy concerns, including the impact of tariffs on agricultural imports. Trump emphasized the administration’s ongoing effort to forge better trade deals, and he also briefly mentioned the importance for farmers to have access to resources and aid packages.
Meantime, if you are upset with how USDA has been handling data recently, you have a chance to voice your opinions. The collective concern has been loud enough that the agency is now opening a Request for Information on “Opportunities, Challenges, and Emerging Areas in Statistical Data, Analysis, and Research at USDA.” In the RFI, USDA admits “there is always room for improvement to further enhance accuracy and usefulness.” Comments can be entered until April 9, 2026 – click here to learn more.
Soybean put (116,623) and call (116,303) volumes are nearly identical. Implied volatility is at 17.42% for May futures, which expire in 58 days.
Winter wheat prices are still struggling to gain traction
Prices have made a solid run-up so far in 2026 but have stalled out in recent sessions amid large domestic and global stocks. Ongoing geopolitical concerns in the Black Sea region has ensured that prices should stay well above $5 per bushel for the foreseeable future. May Chicago SRW futures dropped 3.75 cents to $5.6950, with May Kansas City HRW futures down 4.25 cents to $5.6275.
“On February 21, the May 2026 wheat price went above the 200-day average,” noted Stephen Davis, senior market strategist with Walsh Trading, Inc. “In my opinion, the price will stay above that.” Walsh explains this position in a recent Barchart article – click here to learn more.
Open interest for CBOT wheat puts (33,839) was nearly identical to calls (34,133). Implied volatility on May futures is at 25.27% with 58 days until expiration.