Farmfutures

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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.

What we’re watching

After two days of debate, the House Ag Committee approved a Republican authored farm bill, moving the long-awaited legislation closer to a full House floor vote. The bill is “filled with bipartisan provisions that will move the needle for farmers, ranchers and rural Americans,” committee chair Glenn “GT” Thompson said in a statement. Farm Progress Policy Editor Joshua Baethge dives into the details.

The Middle East conflict is becoming a growing conundrum for farmers and anyone else who needs fertilizers like urea, said Minnesota-based advisor Jon Scheve. Much of the world’s urea originates in that region, meaning an extended war could lead to a big increase in fertilizer prices that in turn discourages corn plantings. Scheve urges patience and cautions against trying to “outguess” a war. Read more below.

Corn boosted by escalating war concerns

May corn futures rose 4 cents to $4.5750 per bushel late in overnight trading after earlier reaching $4.5850, the contract’s highest intraday price since December 29. Futures are up from $4.4850 at the end of last week and on track for a fourth weekly advance in the past five. December futures rose 2.75 cents to $4.8075 after hitting a 21-month high overnight.

Corn’s technicals have turned increasingly bullish this week as the market extended a sharp rally to highs for the year. Upside targets for bulls in May futures include the $4.60 area, near the December intraday high of $4.61, and the November high around $4.65.

Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price rose nearly 9.75 cents Thursday to just under $4.12. Thursday’s average was about 41.5 cents below May futures, narrowing from 43 cents a week earlier.

Wheat futures led grain markets higher overnight as the escalating Middle East war sent crude oil prices near two-year highs and fueled expanding worries over disruptions to global energy and fertilizer supplies. WTI crude futures surged nearly 7% overnight and hit $86.22, the highest since April 2024, based on most-active futures. Crude futures have soared over 28% this week.

“The grain market is realizing the Middle East war isn’t going to end quickly,” said Jon Scheve, who runs Scheve Grain, a Minnesota-based advisory firm. “Trying to predict what the markets will do in a war is extremely difficult as things can change so quickly. The Middle East isn’t a big producer of grain but it is mostly a buyer. That shouldn’t be bullish the market, but I’m not sure how bearish it is either. I still think prices can go even higher.”

In terms of marketing strategy, Scheve advises farmers to “be patient and don’t try to outguess what’s going to happen in a war.” He notes that much of the world’s urea originates in the Middle East. “If that flow is interrupted, it could cause a big increase in fertilizer prices, which in turn raises the breakeven points for farmers, not only here in the U.S. but around the world.” That may compel some farmers to plant less corn, which could lead to higher prices later in 2026 and in 2027.

Stronger-than-expected weekly export sales data also fueled buying interest in corn futures, further illustrating record demand and raising the prospect for additional upward revisions from USDA.

Early Thursday, USDA reported net U.S. corn sales during the week ended February 26 at 2.203 million metric tons (86.7 million bushels), nearly triple the previous week’s figure and up 54% from the average for the prior four weeks. Sales blew past the high end of trade expectations around 1.6 MMT and were led by South Korea, at 530,300 MT.

For the 2025-26 marketing year to date, sales commitments (including accumulated exports) now total 2.558 billion bushels, up 31% from the same period in 2024-25 and almost 78% of USDA’s full-year export target at 3.3 billion bushels, a record.

USDA has hiked its 2025-26 corn export forecast four times since August, most recently bumping its estimate up 100 million bushels in a February report. The agency may need to raise its forecast again, StoneX analyst Arlan Suderman said.

“A strong U.S. corn export program remains,” Suderman said in a note. “The USDA has continually pumped up its 2025-26 corn export estimate… but may still be too low.”

However, any price upside from upwardly revised exports may be limited because USDA’s livestock feed use estimate, at 6.2 billion bushels, is probably too high. “All of that can be offset with a decrease in an overinflated feed use number, which the USDA seems reluctant to change in some sort of effort to keep ending stocks close to the 2-billion-bushel mark,” Suderman said.

USDA’s Supply and Demand report Tuesday isn’t expected to show any major revisions, though any changes to South American corn and soybean production bear watching. Prospective Plantings and quarterly Grain Stocks reports March 31 loom as major price influencers for spring markets.

“The next major round of USDA reports in late March will set the tone for prices,” said Todd Hubbs, a crop marketing specialist and assistant professor at Oklahoma State University.

As the Middle East conflict roils markets, farmers must tune out the “noise” and stay focused on their game plans, Advanced Trading’s Brian Basting says. “You’re going to be hit with news every single day now, and the war only adds to that noise,” Basting said in our latest Ag Marketing IQ In Depth video. “Farmers should reward the market for these rebounds but maintain flexibility.”

Soybeans trading at highest level since 2024

May soybeans rose 6.25 cents to $11.8575 overnight after earlier jumping to $11.9250, the highest intraday price for a most-active contract since June 2024. Futures are up from $11.7075 at the end of last week and poised to record a fifth straight weekly advance. November soybeans rose 5 cents to $11.4150 after nearing a two-year high.

This week’s sharp gains further strengthened the chart posture in soybeans, with May futures pushing above Monday’s high at $11.85 overnight and also breaching $11.90. A strong close today would likely have bulls aiming for $11.95 and the $12 level. Managed money funds were active buyers in soybean futures Thursday and likely added to an expanding net long position this week that was already at the highest level since early December.

Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price gained almost 9.75 cents Thursday to just under $11.0550. Thursday’s average was about 73.75 cents below May futures, narrowing from 79.75 cents a week earlier.

March soybean meal rose $3.30 to $312.60 per ton after shedding 60 cents Thursday to end at a two-week low. March soyoil rose 47 points to 66.17 cents per pound after earlier touching 66.41 cents, the highest for a most-active contract since December 2022.

Soybeans extended gains overnight behind the ongoing rallying in crude oil and soyoil prices and concern over Iran war disruptions. Expectations for sharply higher biofuels blending mandates continue to add support. Prices climbed Thursday despite more signs of sagging exports, which have faded as China’s recent buying binge tapered off.

Net U.S. soybean sales during the week ended February 26 totaled 383,500 MT (14.1 million bushels), down 6% from the previous week and down 20% from the four-week average, USDA said. Sales were at the low end of expectations. China again led buyers at 153,100 MT, including 133,000 MT switched from “unknown destinations.”

Exports for the 2025-26 marketing year remain down sharply after China stopped buying U.S. beans for about six months amid heightened trade tensions with the Trump administration. For 2025-26 to date, U.S. export commitments (including accumulated exports) now total 1.324 billion bushels, down 18% from the same period last year and a six-year low.

Based on Thursday’s report, USDA-confirmed China purchases for 2025-26 total about 10.82 MMT (397.4 million bushels). That still leaves China’s purchase commitments at about half the roughly 21.2 MMT sold by this point in 2024-25.

Elsewhere, Agroconsult raised its 2025-26 Brazilian soybean production estimate by 850,000 MT to 183.1 MMT (6.73 billion bushels). The consultant is running a crop tour through Brazil’s soybean country that has yet to visit the Rio Grande do Sul region, where yields are believed to have suffered from dryness. Agroconsult’s forecast is above USDA’s current record 180-MMT projection.

Winter wheat futures break above $6

March SRW wheat rose 16.75 cents to $6.0050 after rallying 15.5 cents Thursday to $5.8375 to halt a three-day losing streak. Futures are up from $5.9150 at the end of last week and poised to post the market’s fourth consecutive weekly advance.

March HRW wheat rose 15.5 cents to $6.08 after earlier reaching $6.1125, the contract’s highest intraday price since June. March spring wheat rose 11.75 cents to $6.3125 after adding 10.25 cents Thursday to $6.1950, the highest close since late August.

Wheat resumed a 2-1/2-month rally overnight as soaring crude oil prices and strengthening technicals continued to chase shorts out of the market. Both May HRW and SRW futures pushed above the psychologically important $6 level. Concerns over slumping crop ratings in Plains winter wheat country have also supported prices this week.

The oil rally allowed traders to shrug off another soft weekly export performance for U.S. wheat.

Net U.S. wheat sales during the week ended February 26 totaled 203,100 MT (7.46 million bushels), down 16% from the previous week and down 42% from the four-week average, USDA reported. Sales were at the low end of trade expectations, which ranged from 200,000 MT to 500,000 MT. Mexico led buyers at 74,500 MT.

For 2025-26 to date, U.S. wheat sales commitments (including accumulated exports) now total 846.6 million bushels, up almost 14% from the same period in 2024-25 and 94% of USDA’s full-year target of 900 million bushels.

Also Thursday, Statistics Canada estimated the country’s farmers will seed 26.74 million acres to all varieties of wheat in 2026, slightly above analysts’ expectations for a figure closer to 26.4 million acres. Spring wheat was estimated at 18.78 million acres, slightly below 2025.

Wet weekend for central, northern Corn Belt

A wetter pattern will extend across the Midwest into early next week, with heaviest amounts expected for the central and northern Corn Belt. Iowa, Wisconsin and northern Illinois could receive 0.5 inch to as much as 2 inches of precipitation today through Monday, based on the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA.

Above-normal precipitation prospects continue for the Midwest and Plains through mid-March before turning drier, according to the National Weather Service’s latest 6-to-14-day and 8-to-14-day outlooks. The latter forecast, which covers March 13-19, calls for near to below-normal precipitation for most of the region, while temperatures for the Central and Southern Plains are seen trending above-normal.

Wall Street under pressure ahead of jobs report

Stock index futures sank overnight as the Middle East conflict and soaring oil prices continued to weigh on the market. Investors are also waiting for today’s February jobs report from the Labor Department, which is expected to report nonfarm payroll growth of about 50,000 last month.

Futures based on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 indexes fell 0.5% and 0.7%, respectively, while Dow futures fell almost 0.6%. The U.S. dollar index was little changed but still tracking for a gain of nearly 2% this week.