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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.

What we’re watching

Last Friday’s much-anticipated USDA reports seemed to generate more questions than answers, with the WASDE update including an opening disclaimer that some data was missing due to a “lapse in government funding.” As a result, the report carried the taste of a “nothingburger,” Bryce Knorr wrote in an Ag Marketing IQ post. That leaves markets seeking clarity on the size of corn and soybean crops and potentially more volatility ahead with final USDA numbers two months away.

Corn harvest near completion

December corn futures rose 3.5 cents to $4.3825 late overnight after climbing 4.5 cents Monday to $4.3475, erasing overnight weakness that sent the price near a one-week low.

Corn extended Monday’s gains overnight, with December futures’ push back above the 200-day simple moving average at $4.3525 contributing to a neutral-friendly tone. Active speculator short covering buoyed prices early this week, with funds buying about 19,000 corn futures contracts Monday after selling 35,000 Friday, according to StoneX estimates.

Near-term support comes in at the 10- and 20-day SMAs ($4.33 and $4.3125, respectively). But upside gains may be limited without assistance from further strength from soybeans. December futures’ double-top high last week at $4.4275 looms as a possible price peak.

Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price rose about 4.75 cents Monday to $3.96. Monday’s cash average was about 38.75 cents below December futures, narrowing slightly over 40.5 cents a week earlier.

Corn futures gained Monday behind spillover strength from a rally in soybeans and ongoing robust exports. Harvest pressure is easing with most of the crop out of the fields. Late Monday, USDA reported the corn harvest at 91% complete as of Sunday, behind the 98% from a year earlier and slightly below the 94% five-year average.

Also Monday, USDA reported corn inspected for export during the week ended November 13 at 2.054 million metric tons (80.7 million bushels), up 38% from the previous week and more than double 807,420 metric tons for the same week a year earlier. Mexico was the top destination at 592,006 MT, followed by Japan a 424,773 MT.

For the 2025-26 marketing year to date, corn shipments now total 623.6 million bushels, up 73% from the same period in 2024-25 and 20% of USDA’s just-increased full-year forecast at 3.075 billion bushels.

Price upside likely remains limited in the wake of larger-than-expected production and yield numbers in Friday’s bearish USDA reports, which reinforced an outlook for heavy supplies much of the coming year.

In its November Crop Production report, USDA lowered its estimate for the average U.S. corn yield less than expected, to 186 bushels per acre from 186.7 bpa in September. Analysts expected the yield to come in closer to 184 bpa.

USDA also lowered its estimate for the 2025 U.S. corn harvest less than expected with a cut of 62 million bushels to 16.752 billion bushels, compared to expectations for a drop of over 250 million bushels. Both the new yield and production figures remain records. Based on USDA’s new estimate, this year’s crop will surge 1.86 billion bushels, or over 12%, above 2024’s crop.

Despite grain futures’ initially bearish response to Friday’s USDA reports, the market could still have upside, says AgMarket.Net’s Tyler Schau. Considering yields could be revised lower as more data comes in, it’s “too early to say that highs are in” for corn or soybeans, Schau said. “More fireworks” could be coming in upcoming USDA reports, he says. Read the Farm Futures recap.

Elsewhere, AgRural estimated Brazil’s first corn crop at 85% planted as of last Thursday, below the 87% on the same date last year.

Soybeans supported by China reports

January soybeans rose 9 cents to $11.6625 after earlier touching $11.6950, the highest intraday price for a most-active contract since June 2024. Futures soared 32.75 cents Monday for the market’s third advance in four days.

Soybean technicals extended upside overnight, with January futures’ bullish outside day higher Monday negating a seemingly bearish outside day lower Friday. Speculators continue to jump into the market at the slightest whiff of anything bullish, with funds buying about 30,000 soybean futures contracts on Monday after selling 20,000 Friday, according to StoneX estimates.

The market is approaching overbought levels again but where prices might top out is anyone’s guess. There appear to be few significant resistance levels in the way of a potential move to $12, with the bottom of a daily chart gap just under $11.80 on the continuation chart looming as one area to watch. Near-term support includes the 10-day SMA ($11.3425).

Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price jumped over 33.5 cents Monday to $10.8350, the highest since July 2024. Monday’s average was about 73.75 cents below January futures, narrowing from 74.25 cents a week earlier.

December soybean meal fell 60 cents to $330.20 per ton after surging 2.6% Monday to $330.80, the highest close since early February. December soyoil rose 80 points to 51.94 cents per pound after jumping 2% Monday to a four-week closing high.

Soybeans rallied Monday behind rumors of new Chinese business and President Trump’s comments late last week that he expected China to buy soybeans and other U.S. agricultural goods.

Late Monday, Reuters reported that China's state-owned grain trader COFCO bought at least 14 cargoes of U.S. soybeans, or at least 840,000 metric tons (30.9 million bushels), for shipment in December and January. Eight of the vessels were for shipment in December and January from U.S. Gulf Coast terminals, while the rest were for shipment in January from Pacific Northwest ports, Reuters reported, citing traders with knowledge of the deals.

The report bolstered hopes that a U.S.-China trade truce reached in late October would lead to a sharp increase in Chinese business. China had avoided buying U.S. soybeans since last summer as trade tensions escalated.

On Friday, USDA released a backlog of so-called flash sale announcements from October 1 through November 12. The totals included 232,000 MT (8.52 million bushels) of new-crop soybean sales to China from October 30-November 3 (USDA initially reported 332,000 MT of soybean sales but corrected the figure on Monday following a sales cancellation).

Stronger than expected crushing data contributed to Monday’s price strength. Soybean processors have ramped up to record levels to keep pace with biofuels-driven demand for soyoil.

On Monday, the National Oilseed Processors Association reported U.S. soybean crushing totaled 227.65 million bushels in October, up 15% from September and a record for any month. October crushing was up 14% from the same month in 2024.

In recent years, accelerating crush has helped U.S. soybean farmers offset slowing exports as Brazil aggressively expanded its global market share, StoneX analyst Arlan Suderman noted.

It’s “worth highlighting the importance of domestic soybean crush moving forward, with the export picture continuing to look uncertain amid a lack of clarity regarding substantial Chinese purchases and the longer-term pressure of ongoing Brazilian expansion,” Suderman said in a report Monday. Crushing share of USDA’s most-recent soybean balance sheet is near 60%, while export share fell to 38%, down from slightly over 50% five years ago.

Despite reports of recent Chinese purchases, USDA’s latest weekly export inspections report again did not mention China for soybeans or other grains. USDA reported soybean export inspections at 1.176 MMT (43.2 million bushels) during the week ended November 13, up 4.5% from the prior week and but down 48% from the same week in 2024. Italy was the top destination at 199,425 MT, followed by Mexico at 196,623 MT.

For 2025-26 to date, soybean shipments now total 371.4 million bushels, down 43% from the same period in 2024-25 and 22.7% of USDA’s just-reduced full-year forecast of 1.635 billion bushels.

Also Monday, USDA reported the U.S. soybean crop was 95% harvested as of Sunday, below the 98% figure from a year earlier but close to the 96% five-year average.

In Brazil, the soybean crop was about 70% planted as of last Friday, up from 60% a week earlier but down from 78% a year earlier, according to Safras & Mercado. The current pace only slightly lagged the five-year average of 72%.

Wheat supported by strengthening charts

March SRW wheat rose 3.5 cents to $5.62 after earlier reaching $5.6325, the contract’s highest intraday price since November 6. On Monday, futures gained 17 cents and are up from a contract low of $5.0850 posted October 14.

March HRW futures rose 4 cents to $5.4875 after adding 13.75 cents Monday to $5.4475, up sharply from last Friday’s low at $5.2950. March spring wheat rose 3.75 cents to $5.85 after surging 9.5 cents Monday.

Wheat futures climbed Monday as soybeans rallied and strengthening technicals fueled fund short covering. Prices were also supported by reports of a rail attack over the weekend in Poland, near the Ukraine border, fueling worries over potential disruption to Black Sea grain shipments.

Price upside likely will be limited by bearish fundamentals and expectations Plains rainfall this week will aid development of recently-planted winter wheat. Late Monday, USDA said 92% of the U.S. winter wheat crop had been seeded as of Sunday, slightly behind the 95% five-year average.

Plains HRW areas should receive beneficial rains later this week. “This rain will be of high importance for promoting better establishment of newly-planted winter wheat before dormancy occurs,” World Weather, Inc., said in a report. “Confidence is greatest of the rainfall being significant from central Oklahoma into south-central Kansas.”

U.S. wheat exports in recent months ran sharply above last year’s levels but have slowed this month. USDA’s weekly export inspections totaled 246,533 MT (9.06 million bushels), down 15% from the previous week but up 25% from the same week in 2024. Japan was the week’s top destination at 87,493 MT.

For 2025-26 to date, wheat shipments now total 445.2 million bushels, up 19.3% from the same period in 2024-25 and 50.5% of USDA’s full-year export forecast at 900 million bushels.

On Friday, USDA raised 2025-26 domestic ending stocks 57 million bushels to 900 million bushels, a six-year high and a reflection the biggest U.S. all-wheat harvest in nine years. Global wheat stockpiles are expected to rise sharply next year behind stronger crops in Argentina, Australia and other top growers. USDA hiked estimated world ending wheat supplies at the end of 2025-26 by 2.8% to 271.43 MMT (9.97 billion bushels), up 3.8% from 2024-25.

Some Brazil crop areas still too dry

Much of the central U.S. is in line for rainfall this week, with heaviest amounts likely in the Central and Southern Plains and southern Corn Belt. Kansas, Oklahoma and Missouri could receive 0.5 inch to as much as 2 inches of rain today through Friday, based on NOAA’s 72-hour map. Lighter amounts are seen for Illinois, Indiana and Ohio.

Above-normal temperatures are expected to persist up to the middle of next week before colder air starts moving in from the Northern Plains, while precipitation chances remain elevated, based on the National Weather Service’s 6-to-10-day and 8-to-14-day outlooks. The latter outlook, which covers November 25-December 1, calls for below-normal temperatures shifting into the Dakotas and Central Plains and near- to above-normal temperatures for the rest of the Midwest.

In Brazil, key growing areas including Mato Grosso and northwestern Mato Grosso do Sul remain too dry for both favorable crop establishment and long-term production potentials, according to World Weather. “Erratic rainfall in recent weeks was welcome where it occurred, though much more precipitation is needed to improve establishment and development conditions” the forecaster said Monday.

“Crop health in northern Brazil may not be at its best, although most crops have not reached the point of suffering permanent production losses,” World Weather said. “Timely rain of significance needs to fall now to stop the downward pressure on production.”

Stock index futures weaker amid soft tech

Stock index futures fell overnight as technology shares remained under pressure ahead of chipmaker Nvidia’s quarterly results Wednesday.

Futures based on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq-100 indexes both fell around 0.4%, while Dow futures were down 0.7%. The U.S. dollar index was little changed.

January WTI crude oil futures were little changed around $59.87 per barrel. Gold futures fell 0.8% to about $4,041 per ounce.

What else I’m reading at www.FarmFutures.com this morning: