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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.
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From expanded deductions to state-specific rules, farmers need to understand several tax law updates that could help them save money and optimize tax strategies. One example is the 100% bonus depreciation deduction. Get the rundown from farm management experts.
Corn opens at $4.50
With no overnight trading and a hard open at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, March corn futures are riding an updraft this morning following a pre-Christmas climb to $4.51, the contract’s fifth advance in the last six days and its first close above the $4.50 mark since Nov. 13. Futures are up from $4.4375 at the end of last week.
Corn technicals strengthened this week with March futures settling above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) around $4.46 the past three days and piercing key resistance around $4.50. The $4.50 level proved a tough hurdle for the market in recent months and this week’s strength may prompt some farmers to book some fresh sales.
If the market can post a reasonably firm close today or at least not sell off, prices could sustain upside next week, with bulls likely aiming for this month’s high at $4.5225 and at the $4.55 area.
Corn futures’ holiday-season rally has been fueled by accelerating technical momentum and ongoing bullish demand dynamics, with exports running at a record clip. Renewed strength in soybeans and wheat markets is driving a generally stronger tone across the grain complex. Funds have been only modest buyers in corn, soybean and wheat futures this week, but it’s been enough to contribute to gains.
However, grain markets could be susceptible to profit-taking before the end of the year, so farmers should consider taking advantage of any rallies because they could be short-lived. Rally potential remains limited by a heavy supply outlook for 2026 following a likely-record U.S. crop. Also, South America appears poised for another large harvest amid mostly crop-friendly weather.
Potential market-movers to watch for next week include another round of weekly export sales data from USDA, which on Wednesday is scheduled to report sales for the week ended Dec. 18. U.S. markets will be closed Thursday for New Year’s Day.
Perhaps the biggest market-influencer over the near-term looms Jan. 12, when USDA is scheduled to report its Crop Production Annual Summary and Supply and Demand updates, along with several other reports. The Annual Summary will include “final” 2025 estimates for U.S. corn and soybean production and yields. Final is in quotation marks because USDA could revise those numbers later in the year.
Export numbers reported this week illustrated the brisk demand pace for corn thanks to accelerated purchases from Mexico, South Korea and other major importers.
On Tuesday, USDA said net U.S. corn sales for the week ended Dec. 11 totaled 1.744 million metric tons (68.7 million bushels), up 18% from the previous week. Japan was the top buyer at 354,200 metric tons. Sales commitments for 2025-26 to date (including accumulated exports) now total 1.804 billion bushels, up 30% from the same period in 2024-25.
Doom and gloom is all we seem to hear regarding the ag economy these days. Key coming into tax season is to present a brighter picture to your lender. What’s on paper could hurt your chances with your banker. Farm management specialist Kelvin Leibold shares the why in How to lose your lender.
Soybeans open a dime up
March soybeans open on a wave, following Wednesday’s 12.75 cent surge to $10.7650, the contract’s highest close since Dec. 15. Futures are up from $10.5950 at the end of last week.
The soybean market’s stabilization and renewed strength this week bolstered hopes that prices may be establishing a long-awaited near-term bottom after March futures plunged as much as $1.15, or nearly 10%, from a 17-month high at $11.7250 in mid-November.
Some technical signals emerged this week that appear encouraging to bulls, including March futures on Wednesday closing above the 10-day SMA (about $10.7350) for the first time since Nov. 28. March futures also settled above the 200-day SMA ($10.6550), a closely followed long-term metric. Holding this month’s low at $10.5725 will be key to sustaining a bottom.
Soybean futures rallied in light-volume trading this week behind a combination of technically driven corrective buying and hopes for additional Chinese business. The market also recently displayed a seasonal tendency to rally between Thanksgiving and New Year’s, Total Farm Marketing’s Naomi Blohm wrote recently.
Bearish weather in Brazil likely will limit rallies, with strong rain coverage expected for key growing areas over the next 10 days. Brazil’s harvest will begin next month, and the country is widely expected to produce another record soybean harvest in 2026.
Traders will continue to watch for any USDA confirmation of China soybean purchases. Earlier this week, USDA reported net U.S. soybean sales for the week ended Dec. 11 at 2.396 MMT (88 million bushels), up 54% from the previous week and a marketing-year high.
China was the week’s top buyer at 1.383 MMT, bringing the country’s total reported soybean purchases for 2025-26 to slightly over 6 MMT (223 million bushels). That’s about half of the 12 MMT the White House said China would buy by the end of February. But analysts believe China’s purchase total by now is actually closer to 8 MMT when factoring in sales that USDA hasn’t confirmed.
While China’s recent buying is welcomed by farmers, the country’s absence from the U.S. soybean market for much of the year means exports lag sharply behind previous years.
Overall U.S. soybean export commitments for 2025-26 to date (including accumulated exports) now total 947.1 million bushels, down 33% from the same period last year and a 14-year low. Accumulated exports to China total just 10 million bushels, compared to 537.4 million bushels a year earlier.
China’s shunning of U.S. soybeans much of this year hit the market hard, but it could have been much worse. Fortunately, the U.S. grain industry has been diversifying its export customers in recent years, which has meant other countries have helped pick up some of the slack, according to a recent study by Purdue University ag economists. For soybean farmers, “the result has been manageable decline rather than a crisis,” the Purdue economists said. “For corn, this means robust growth rather than modest gains.”
Wheat rises on Black Sea shipping concerns
March SRW wheat gained 4.75 cents Wednesday to $5.2175, the contract’s fifth consecutive daily advance and its highest close since Dec. 12. Futures are up from $5.0975 at the end of last week.
Wheat futures extended a rally this week driven in part by escalating concern that the Russia- Ukraine war may disrupt grain shipments in the Black Sea.
“Ukraine is looking to the U.S. to broker a peace agreement with Russia, but both sides continue to launch hundreds of long-range drones each night,” StoneX said in a report earlier this week. “Ukraine farmers unions reported one of the three major exporting ports at 20% capacity or less, with logistics to the port damaged as well. (Also) there’s been reports of defaults on wheat contracts to be delivered this month.”
Also, wheat traders saw signs this week that U.S. exports may be picking up, perhaps reflecting stepped-up buying interest following the market’s recent downdraft. Recent weakness in the U.S. dollar also may be encouraging buyers, with the U.S. dollar index sinking near a three-month low.
Earlier this week, USDA reported net U.S. wheat sales during the week ended Dec. 11 at 432,600 MT (15.9 million bushels), up 13% from the previous week and near the middle of trade expectations. Mexico was the week’s top buyer at 161,400 MT.
For 2025-26 to date, U.S. wheat sales commitments (including accumulated exports) total 725.8 million bushels, up 22% from the same period in 2024-25 and a nine-year high.