Farmfutures

Don’t miss the latest market commentary from the Farm Futures team. Sign up for the complimentary morning and afternoon market newsletters!

Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.

What we’re watching

China’s recent buying binge could be viewed as an early Christmas gift for U.S. soybean farmers. However, skepticism remains whether China can hit the reported target (12 million metric tons, according to the White House), before the calendar flips to 2026. It’s a tall hill to climb, but don’t rule it out, traders say.

Corn pulls back from three-week high

March corn futures fell 3.25 cents to $4.4625 late in overnight trading after jumping 5 cents Tuesday to $4.50, the contract’s fourth gain in the past five days and its highest close since November 13. Futures are up almost 3% from a four-week low of $4.3450 posted November 24.

Corn technicals took a bullish turn with Tuesday’s strong performance, which produced a strong outside day higher on the March futures daily chart as well as the contract’s first settlement above the 200-day simple moving average, currently about $4.48, since November 13. Futures also pushed above the key $4.50 level, which could have bulls targeting a four-month intraday high at $4.57 posted in mid-November.

Tuesday’s high at $4.5225 stands as near-term resistance, while near-term support includes the 20- and 10-day SMAs ($4.45 and $4.4250, respectively), along with this week’s low $4.4225.

Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price rose about 5.25 cents Tuesday to $4.0425. Tuesday’s cash average was about 45.75 cents below March futures, narrowing from 51.25 cents a week earlier.

Corn futures joined the wheat market in Tuesday’s rally, which was sparked by reports of a Ukraine drone attack on a Russian tanker ship that prompted a threat from Vladimir Putin to cut off Ukraine’s access to sea routes. Such an escalation could disrupt Black Sea grain shipping. Ukraine is the world’s fourth largest corn exporter after the U.S., Brazil and Argentina.

Cash market strength, strong exports and a lack of farmer selling is also supporting corn futures this week, but the market otherwise has little fresh grain-centric news as traders wait for USDA’s next Supply and Demand update December 9. The market may not have survey-based yield and production estimates from USDA for at least another month, but expectations for further downward revisions likely will further underpin corn prices in weeks ahead.

On Thursday, USDA is scheduled to report weekly export sales for the week ended October 30, but the data will probably be too stale to have any market impact. Weekly export inspectations numbers early this week continued to show demand humming along at a record pace, with shipments for the 2025-26 marketing year to date up 71% from the same period in 2024-25.

Later this morning, the Energy Information Administration will report weekly U.S. ethanol production. A week ago, EIA said production rose 2% during the week ended November 21 to an average of 1.113 million barrels per day, the second straight weekly increase and near a record of 1.123 million barrels per day during the last week of October.

Deere & Co. shares tumbled to start the week after the company’s first profit forecast for 2026 disappointed Wall Street. The company’s outlook underscored the challenges facing farmers even after China resumed buying U.S. soybeans. Deere CEO John May cited an “additional headwind” from heightened uncertainty, but also said he believes 2026 “will mark the bottom” of the ag cycle.

Soybean market waits for China news

January soybeans rose 1.5 cents to $11.2625 late overnight after dropping 3.25 cents Tuesday to $11.2475, the contract’s second straight daily decline and its lowest close in a week. Futures are down about 44 cents, or 3.7% from a 17-month intraday high of $11.6950 on November 18.

Soybean futures stabilized somewhat overnight but charts still took a small hit with January futures closing below the 10- and 20-day SMAs (currently $11.28 and $11.3050) the past two days. Prices remain around the middle of the past two weeks’ range and could extend a sideways-lower pattern in coming days lacking reports of further Chinese buying. Key near-term support includes the $11.20 area and last week’s low at $11.1325.

Upside levels to watch include Monday’s high at $11.4225 and $11.50. Failure to sustain price upside this week could set up a bearish head-and-shoulders top on the daily bar chart.

Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price fell about 3.75 cents Tuesday to $10.5375. Tuesday’s average was about 71 cents below January futures, narrowing from 72.75 cents a week earlier.

January soybean meal rose 70 cents to $312.30 per ton after dropping Tuesday to a four-week low. January soybean oil fell 18 points to 52.50 cents per pound after closing Tuesday at a two-and-a-half month high.

Soybeans were pressured the past two days by the lack of confirmation of fresh Chinese buying, though rumors continue to circulate that more purchases are in the pipeline, and the potential for more announcements may be enough to keep sellers from getting overly aggressive. The most recent confirmation came last Friday, when USDA reported another so-called flash sale of 312,000 MT of U.S. soybeans to China during 2025-26.

China’s recent soybean purchases are believed to total at least 2.5 to 3 MMT, leaving it short of the 12 MMT the White House said the country would buy by the end of 2025 following a trade truce struck between President Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping at the end of October. Last week, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said the administration expected to announce an aid package for U.S. farmers within two weeks and a deal on Chinese soybean purchases.

Additionally, prospects for needed rainfall in key crop areas of South American may also be weighing on soybean prices. “There had previously been concerns over spotty rainfall in Brazil, but heavy rains have fallen in both central and northern Brazil, improving soil moisture levels,” Stewart-Peterson Group’s Grain Market Insider report said. “Argentinian weather has been favorable as well.”

Earlier this week, StoneX Brazil lowered its estimate for the country’s 2026 soybean harvest 1% to 177.2 MMT (6.51 billion bushels), saying prospects for lower yields may outweigh a slight increase in plantings. USDA, in its Supply and Demand update last month, kept its Brazil forecast unchanged at 175 MMT, which would be up 2% from 2025’s record 171.5-MMT crop.

U.S. soybean exports continue to sag with China having avoided American beans for several months. For 2025-26 to date, soybean shipments totaled 436 million bushels, down 46% from the same period in 2024-25 and a 14-year low for the September-November time frame.

Wheat supported by Black Sea concerns

March SRW wheat fell 2 cents to $5.39 after climbing 6 cents Tuesday to $5.41, the contract’s highest settlement since November 19. The most-active contract rebounded from an initial slide Tuesday to a five-week intraday low at $5.2975.

March HRW futures fell 2 cents to $5.31. March spring wheat rose 0.5 cent to $5.8125.

Wheat futures surged higher Tuesday as the reports of Ukraine’s attacks and Russia’s threats recalled the grain shipping disruptions that followed the start of the war between the two countries nearly four years ago.

“The risk is that we may be seeing that threat emerge once again,” StoneX analyst Arlan Suderman wrote in a note.

Combined wheat exports from Russia and Ukraine this year are expected to total 59 MMT (2.17 billion bushels), accounting for more than 27% of world exports, with the bulk of those shipments passing through the Black Sea, Suderman said.

“There's obviously the risk of ships being directly hit, but also the question of when does the cost of insurance on the shipments become too costly for shipping companies to work in the region?” he added.

Wheat price upside may be limited by bearish supply fundamentals. The U.S. winter wheat crop is heading into winter dormancy in generally solid conditions in the prime Plains production states, with Kansas and Oklahoma receiving widespread rain in November that likely boosted soil moisture ahead of winter dormancy.

Midwest cold extends rest of the week

Little precipitation is expected across the Midwest and Plains the rest of this week, with the exception of potential for light snow in the eastern Corn Belt over the weekend, based on NOAA’s 72-hour outlook. Temperatures may climb toward the weekend but still remain below freezing.

Below-normal temperatures likely will persist across the eastern half of the U.S. through the middle of next week, with the greatest cold potential expanding from the Northeast into the Midwest and Southeast, based on the National Weather Service’s 6-to-10-day outlook, which covers December 8-12. The same outlook holds above-normal precipitation prospects for the Northern Plains and northern Midwest, with smaller chances further south.

Stock index futures firmer as market looks to Fed

Stock index futures gained modestly overnight as investors aimed to build on Tuesday’s gains and looked ahead to next week's Federal Reserve interest rate policy meeting, which is expected to produce another cut to the central bank’s benchmark short-term rate.

Futures based on the S&P 500 index and the Dow industrials rose slightly over 0.1%, while Nasdaq-100 futures added 0.1%. The U.S. dollar index fell 0.4% after weakening near a five-week low earlier overnight.

January WTI crude oil futures jumped over 1% to $59.40 per barrel. Gold futures rose 0.5% to about $4,224 per ounce.

What else I’m reading at www.FarmFutures.com this morning: