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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.

What we’re watching

It’s that time of year again. From sturdy boots to cozy slippers to a cool propane torch, our annual holiday gift list may have just the right thing to put under the tree for that special farmer in your life, plus ideas for spouses and pets. Practicality matters, as any farmer would tell you.

Happy Thanksgiving from the Farm Futures team!

Corn supported by robust exports

March corn futures rose 2.5 cents to $4.4075 late overnight after climbing 1.5 cents Tuesday to $4.3825, up from a four-week intraday low of $4.3450 posted Monday and the contract’s highest close in almost a week. December futures rose 2.5 cents to $4.26.

Corn futures extended this week’s sideways consolidation overnight as prices continued to stabilize following a drop to four-week lows Monday. Sideways trade may continue the rest of the week as volume thins out ahead of the holiday. March futures’ ability to hold above the 100-day simple moving average at $4.3575 could be seen as a modestly positive near-term technical sign, along with a push above the 50-day SMA ($4.40) late overnight.

Additional downside levels to watch include the $4.30 area and the October lows around $4.2550.

Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price rose slightly over 0.25 cent Tuesday to $3.87. Tuesday’s cash average was about 36.5 cents below December futures, narrowing from 38.5 cents a week earlier.

Corn futures continue to find support from strong export demand and easing harvest pressure, though longer-term fundamentals lean bearish with this year’s likely-record U.S. crop expected to boost supplies to a seven-year high next summer.

The lack of fresh news could keep the corn market confined to relatively tight ranges into the early part of next month, ahead of USDA’s next Supply and Demand update December 9, with soybeans retaining price leadership. Corn market carry, or the premium March and other deferred futures hold to December, expanded a few cents this week after shrinking much of the fall.

U.S. corn exports are running sharply above last year’s levels, illustrating robust demand from Mexico and other top buyers.

Early Tuesday, USDA reported weekly export sales for the week ended October 9 as the agency continued to chip away at a raft of data backlogged during the government shutdown. Net corn sales for the week came in at 1.327 million metric tons (52.2 million bushels), around the low end of expectations.

Corn sales commitments (including accumulated exports) for the 2025-26 marketing year through October 9 totaled 1.21 billion bushels, up 55% from the same period in 2024-25. That’s over a third of the way to USDA’s full-year target at 3.075 billion bushels, a record. Based on more recent export inspections data, corn shipments are up 72% from last year.

The U.S. corn harvest is all but complete. On Monday, USDA reported the corn harvest at 96% finished as of Sunday, up from 91% a week earlier and slightly behind the 97% average for that date the past five years. A year ago, the crop was 100% harvested.

China business prospects support soybeans

January soybeans rose 2 cents to $11.2675 after gaining 1.5 cents Tuesday to $11.2475, the contract’s second consecutive close below the 20-day SMA ($11.2825) but up from a two-week intraday low at $11.1325 last Friday.

Soybeans continue to stabilize and trade sideways following last week's sharp drop from a 17-month intraday high just under $11.70, with last week’s low at $11.1325 marking initial support in January futures. Near-term resistance includes the 10-day SMA around $11.34. Chart-watchers are eyeing a potential head-and-shoulders top that could be confirmed if January futures fail to extend gains beyond the $11.37 to $11.40 area, around the early-November highs.

Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price firmed about 1.75 cents Tuesday to $10.52. Tuesday’s average was about 72.75 cents below January futures, narrowing from 73.75 cents a week earlier.

Soybean futures found modest support Tuesday amid hopes for additional Chinese buying following a flurry of purchases the past two weeks. Comments from Trump administration officials this week shed little fresh light on the prospect for near-term China business but have been enough to help stem price downside and keep fund selling at bay.

China bought at least 10 cargoes of U.S. soybeans for January shipment from Gulf Coast terminals and Pacific Northwest ports, Reuters reported overnight, citing traders with knowledge of the deals. The purchases could total at least 600,000 metric tons (22 million bushels) and would add to the nearly 2 MMT China already purchased over the past two weeks.

Early this week, Agriculture Secretary Brook Rollins said the administration expects to announce an aid package for U.S. farmers within two weeks and a deal on Chinese soybean purchases, without providing further details. The administration has for months said it would release aid for farmers hurt by low crop prices and trade disputes but has not yet issued any plan or amount for the aid.

Tuesday brought no new flash export sales announcements from USDA, however. On Monday, USDA reported another private exporter soybean sale to China, this one for 123,000 MT (4.52 million bushels). Monday’s announcement followed several previous so-called flash sales reports over the past two weeks and brought recent Chinese purchases to a total of 1.939 MMT (71.2 million bushels).

That’s still short of the 12 MMT the White House has said China will buy from the U.S. by the end of this year. China would need to purchase roughly 280,000 MT of U.S. soybeans a day for the rest of the year to meet that target.

Early Tuesday, USDA said net U.S. soybean sales for the week ended October 9 totaled 785,000 MT (28.8 million bushels), near the low end of expectations. Sales commitments (including accumulated exports) for 2025-26 through October 9 totaled 498.9 million bushels, down 37% from the same period in 2024-25 and the lowest sales for that period in 17 years.

Despite reports of recent Chinese purchases, USDA’s weekly export inspections report on Monday again did not mention China, and the overall shipment pace remained down sharply from last year.

Traders continue to monitor weather in South America, where a La Niña formation may increase risks of drought. Some parts of Brazil have already had excessive dryness in recent weeks. AgRural estimated Brazil’s soybean crop at 81% planted as of last Thursday, behind the 86% pace from a year earlier.

Winter wheat heading into dormancy

March SRW wheat rose 1 cent to $5.4025 after jumping 4.5 cents Tuesday to $5.3925, the contract’s first advance in five days and a rebound from a four-week intraday low of $5.3175 posted Monday. Futures are still down about 28 cents, or 5%, from a four-month intraday high of $5.68 on November 5.

March HRW futures rose 1.5 cents to $5.2975 after adding 5.75 cents Tuesday to $5.2825, the contract’s highest close in almost a week. March spring wheat rose 1.5 cents to $5.8225 after gaining 4.75 cents Tuesday, up from a two-week low at $5.7150.

Wheat futures extended a modest corrective rebound overnight but remained near four-week lows, with a potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine seen as reducing prospects for any disruptions to Black Sea grain shipments.

The mostly-planted U.S. Plains winter wheat crop likely benefitted from rainfall the past two weeks, sending the crop into dormancy in decent shape as a cold spell moves into the central U.S. USDA’s weekly winter wheat ratings improved. About 48% of the crop was rated either “good” or “excellent” at the start of this week, up from 45% a week earlier.

USDA said net U.S. wheat sales for the week ended October 9 totaled 614,000 MT (22.6 million bushels), at the high end of expectations. Sales commitments (including accumulated exports) for the 2025-26 marketing year through October 9 totaled 567.9 million bushels, up 25% from the same period in 2024-25 and the lowest sales for that period in 17 years.

Based on more recent USDA export inspections figures, wheat shipments are up 20% from the same period in 2024-25 and 52% of USDA’s full-year export forecast at 900 million bushels.

USDA also said 97% of the U.S. winter wheat crop was planted as of Sunday, up from 92% the previous week and even with the 95% five-year average. The crop was 87% emerged, up from 79% a week earlier and slightly behind the 89% five-year average.

Temperatures tumbling across the Midwest

Temperatures are plunging near freezing across the central U.S. just ahead of the holidays and much of the Midwest may receive snow over the weekend. The cold snap is expected to persist through the first week of December, based on the National Weather Service’s 6-to-10-day and 8-to-14-day outlooks.

Both outlooks, which cover December 1-9, call for below-normal temperatures expanding from the Great Lakes states into the Central Plains. The first week of December is also expected to hold above-normal precipitation probabilities.

Stock index futures firmer ahead of holiday

Stock index futures climbed overnight amid investor confidence the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates again in December. Futures based on the S&P 500 index rose about 0.2%, while Nasdaq-100 futures firmed 0.3% and Dow futures were flat.

The U.S. dollar index was up 0.2% and remained near a six-month high posted late last week. January WTI crude oil futures were little changed at $57.94 per barrel after sinking to a five-week low Tuesday on signs Ukraine and Russia may be near a peace deal. Gold futures rose 0.6% to about $4,166 per ounce.

What else I’m reading at www.FarmFutures.com this morning: