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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.
What we’re watching
The USDA Outlook Forum yesterday repeated last year’s planted acreage prediction. And the market barely suppressed a yawn. The question now is whether the U.S. can overcome reliance on China, a growing need for soybean farmers.
USDA expects corn acres to drop. How does that jive with what farmers are thinking? Farm Futures is working to provide credible numbers for farmers writing marketing strategies for their 2026 grain crop. Your input in the annual Farm Futures' acreage intentions survey is important to that effort. Your responses are kept anonymous, and you can enter a drawing to win one of five $50 Amazon cards! Click here to access the survey.
Demand domestic corn use
March corn futures closed slightly down on Thursday but saw a wobbly but noticeable incline overnight, pointing to an open more than a penny higher, or around $4.27.
Traders could be looking to USDA Outlook Forum’s 4.8-million-acre drop in planting expectations, or they could be listening in on social media where farmers are chatting about the long-term benefits of shorting the market. Or, perhaps, they’re betting on corn growers to push through E15 legislation.
Thursday’s U.S. Energy Information Administration report posted ethanol production in the week ending Feb. 13 at 1.118 million barrels per day, up 8,000 bushels per day from the previous week. The National Corn Growers Association says an E15 mandate would increase consumption by 2.3 to 2.4 billion bushels annually. But somewhere in the depths of politics, a move that would support U.S. farmers, cost taxpayers nothing and reduce the average family’s gas spend is stalled.
A positive move on E15, continued export demand from Mexico and the realization of fewer acres could significantly shift the corn supply picture. Add increased domestic use in Brazil and corn growers could enjoy a little strength in that market.
Corn market data analysis from Farm Futures Editor Emeritus Bryce Knorr puts the top third of the trading band at $4.29 to $4.62.
Export sales numbers will be released today. Trade expectation is for between 0.6 and 2.2 MMT of corn sold in the week ending on 2/12.
Soybeans
The soybean cash price ended Thursday up about 7 cents higher across most contracts but trended slightly down overnight, losing less than a penny of the gain. With USDA’s desktop acreage estimate up nearly 4 million acres of soybeans, the market’s initial price reaction could be tied to a pending chat between President Trump and China’s President XI. The better scenario, which would point to a more reliable price rally, is that it’s tied to fundamentally strong technicals and tight supply. We’ll see whether traders continue to add to their long positions.
Export numbers released today will factor into that buying. The trade export expectation for the week ending Feb. 12 is for 375,000 million metric tons and 1.2 MMT of soybean sales. Meal is estimated at 220,000 to 450,000. And bean oil exports are expected to drop slightly.
International Grains Council data showed world soybean stocks up 2 MMT to 79 MMT, as consumption was down 1 MMT, with production up 1 MMT.
As the commodity markets ride a roller coaster driven by an administration driven by disruption, we’ll watch closely today at U.S. Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins takes the podium at the Ag Outlook Forum. Going forward, the personality to pinpoint is the next Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s selection to succeed current Chair Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May 2026.