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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.

What we’re watching

Despite this week’s price pullback, the corn market retains a bullish story thanks to record export demand. Corn “is America's strong suit,” analyst Mike Pearson said in our latest Ag Marketing IQ In Depth video. “We are leading the pack.” As the year draws to a close, Pearson suggests farmers keep eyes open for opportunities to lock in higher prices resulting from any fund-driven rallies.

Corn futures extend sideways pattern

December corn futures rose 0.5 cent to $4.3025 late overnight after shedding 7 cents Wednesday to $4.2975, the contract’s lowest close since November 10. March futures added 1 cent to $4.4250 after dropping 8 cents Wednesday to a four-week closing low.

Corn futures traded in a tight range overnight while extending a sideways pattern that could persist through next week’s Thanksgiving holiday absent another upswing in soybeans. On Wednesday, December futures closed back under the 200-day simple moving average, currently $4.35, as well as the 10- and 20-day SMAs ($4.3275 and $4.3175, respectively).

Downside could be limited to as long as December futures hold above last week’s low at $4.2625, though a double-top high last week at $4.4275 remains as a possible price peak.

Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price fell almost 7 cents Wednesday to $3.9125. Wednesday’s cash average was about 38.5 cents below December futures, narrowing from 39.25 cents a week earlier.

Corn futures retain fundamental support from firm cash markets, strong exports and easing harvest pressure. The harvest was 91% complete as of Sunday, behind the 98% from a year earlier and slightly below the 94% five-year average, USDA reported earlier this week.

But price upside likely will be limited by a likely-record harvest that’s expected to swell U.S. supplies to a seven-year high in 2026. Last Friday, USDA estimated the average U.S. yield at a higher-than-expected 186 bushels per acre while pegging production at 16.752 billion bushels, which would be up12% from 2024’s harvest.

Early today, USDA is expected to release weekly export sales for the week ended October 2 as the agency continues to catch up on backlogged reports resulting from the government shutdown. Net U.S. corn sales ranged from 1.4 million metric tons to 2.5 MMT (55.1 million to 98.4 million bushels), based on a Reuters survey.

Based on USDA export inspections, corn shipments for the 2025-26 marketing year to date are up 73% from the same period in 2024-25.

Census Bureau data released Wednesday showed U.S. corn exports in August at 6.397 MMT (251.8 million bushels), a record for the month and a 25% surge above the same month in 2024. August ethanol exports also set a record for the month at 188.8 million gallons, up 24% from last year.

S&P Global said it expects U.S. farmers to reduce 2026 corn plantings by 3.8% from this year to 95 million acres while increasing soybean plantings. The firm’s 2026 figure would still rank among the top five planting years in the past two decades.

Also Wednesday, the Energy Information Administration reported U.S. ethanol production rose 1.5% during the week ended November 14 to an average of 1.091 million barrels per day. Production hit a record average of 1.123 million barrels per day in the last week of October.

Soybeans supported by surge in China buying

January soybeans rose 1.25 cents to $11.3750 after tumbling 17.25 cents Wednesday to $11.3625, the contract’s second straight daily decline. Futures are down about 32 cents from a 17-month intraday high at $11.6950 reached overnight Tuesday.

Soybean technicals could be shifting into sideways consolidation as momentum from the past month’s rally loses steam. Overnight, January futures briefly dipped under the 10-day SMA ($11.3625), a key near-term support level the market has closed under only once since October 16. Other key downside levels include this week’s low at $11.1425. Upside levels to watch include Tuesday’s high and the $11.80 area, near a daily chart gap on the continuation chart.

Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price fell 17 cents Wednesday to $10.6275. Wednesday’s average was about 73.5 cents below January futures, narrowing slightly from 73.75 cents a week earlier.

December soybean meal rose 40 cents to $319.30 per ton after dropping 2.5% Wednesday to $318.90, the lowest close in over a week. December soyoil fell 6 points to 51.04 cents per pound after sinking 2% Wednesday, pulling back from a two-month closing high posted Tuesday.

USDA early Wednesday confirmed another 330,000 MT of U.S. soybean sales to China for delivery during the 2025-26 marketing year. Wednesday’s announcement followed a few previous flash sales reports and brought recent total Chinese purchases to 1.354 MMT (49.7 million bushels).

That’s still far short of the 12 MMT the White House has said China will buy from the U.S. by the end of this year, but the accelerating pace of purchases offers hope the gap can be at least partially closed.

China’s buying “would need to remain aggressive for the country to reach the 12 million metric tons that U.S. officials say it committed to by year-end,” according to Stewart-Peterson’s Grain Market Insider. “Traders remain uncertain whether China will ultimately follow through on that target.”

Based on USDA export inspections, soybean shipments through mid-November totaled 371.4 million bushels, down 43% from the same period in 2024-25 and 23% of USDA’s just-reduced full-year forecast of 1.635 billion bushels, a 13-year low.

Soyoil futures took pressure Wednesday after Reuters reported the Trump administration is considering delaying until 2027 or 2028 its proposed cuts to incentives for imported biofuels amid pressure from U.S. oil refiners, who argue the move could raise costs and tighten fuel supplies. The delay now under discussion could sate domestic oil refiners that have invested in the bio-based diesel sector but would risk frustrating U.S. farmers and biofuel producers.

Net U.S. soybean sales during the week ended October 2 were estimated at 600,000 MT to 1.6 MMT (23.6 million to 58.8 million), based on the Reuters survey.

Elsewhere, Brazil-based consultant Safras & Mercado estimated the country’s soybean crop at 178.76 MMT (6.57 billion bushels), down 1.2% from its previous forecast. Northern growing areas in Brazil have been dry recently and planting is behind last year’s pace, but rain is expected the next 10 days. Safras & Mercado’s estimate would still be a record crop and indicates a 4.2% jump from last year’s harvest, based on USDA numbers.

China’s recent U.S. soybean buying binge was welcomed by farmers, as prices extended a rally that’s approaching $12 per bushel. But be warned: China is unlikely to live up to reported purchase targets, according to Karen Braun of Zaner Ag Hedge. “We’ve seen this movie before,” Braun said in the latest FP Next podcast. “It doesn’t make sense for China to come in and buy these soybeans.”

Wheat futures pull back from two-week high

March SRW wheat rose 4.5 cents to $5.54 after slipping 9.5 cents Wednesday to $5.4950, pulling back from a two-week closing high hit Tuesday. Futures are still up about 45 cents, or almost 9%, from a contract low of $5.0850 posted October 14.

March HRW futures rose 2.5 cents to $5.34 after dropping 11.25 cents Wednesday. March spring wheat rose 0.25 cent to $5.86, down from a seven-week closing high on Tuesday.

Wheat futures saw some corrective buying overnight following Wednesday’s slide, though price upside remains limited by ample U.S. supplies and other bearish fundamentals. Early this week, USDA rated 49% of the winter wheat crop either “good” or “excellent” at the start of this week, compared to 45% a year ago.

Rainfall expected in the Central and Southern Plains this week should support early crop development, but little precipitation is seen for the Northern Plains and temperatures next week are expected to take a sharp turn lower.

Net U.S. wheat exports during the week ended October 2 ranged from 350,000 MT to 600,000 MT (12.9 million to 22 million bushels), based on the Reuters survey.

On Wednesday, S&P Global estimated the 2026 U.S. winter wheat crop at 32.4 million acres, down slightly from 33.2 million acres in 2025.

Elsewhere, European Union soft wheat exports during the 2025-26 marketing year totaled 332.5 million bushels through November 16, slightly below last year’s pace. Morocco, Algeria, Egypt, the United Kingdom and Turkey are the top five destinations.

Ukraine’s agriculture ministry reported that it expects the country’s 2025-26 wheat production to total 845.1 million bushels, up 1.8% from 2024-25. Ukraine’s wheat exports could reach 624.6 million bushels in the current marketing year.

Colder air moving into Plains and Midwest

Rainfall is expected across the Central and Southern Plains and eastern Corn Belt into the start of next week, with potential amounts of 0.5 inch to 1.5 inch seen for Kansas, Oklahoma and Missouri, based on NOAA’s 72-hour map. Illinois, Indiana and Ohio could receive 0.25 inch to 1.25 inch.

Starting next Tuesday, colder air will start expanding from the Northern Plains into the western Corn Belt, pushing temperatures below normal levels, based on the National Weather Service’s 6-to-10-day and 8-to-14-day outlooks. The latter outlook, which covers November 27-December 3, calls for below-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation across most of the central U.S.

Strong Nvidia results buoyed tech sentiment

Stock index futures surged higher overnight as stronger-than-expected quarterly results from AI bellwether Nvidia buoyed tech sector sentiment. Investors awaited the Labor Department’s September nonfarm payrolls report expected early today. The report was delayed by the government shutdown.

Futures based on the S&P 500 index rose over 1%, while Nasdaq-100 futures jumped 1.5% and Dow futures added 0.5%. The U.S. dollar index was up less than 0.1% after strengthening earlier to a two-week high.