Farmfutures

Don’t miss the latest market commentary from the Farm Futures team. Sign up for the complimentary morning and afternoon market newsletters!

Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.

What we’re watching

This week could feature a wild ride in the corn market, with USDA reporting Acreage and quarterly Grain stocks today as well as the July weather outlook still in flux. Amid prospects for heightened volatility, farmers might consider short-dated options as a cost-effective way to manage price risk while limiting premium costs during critical decision windows, Naomi Blohm says. Read more in Naomi’s latest Ag Marketing IQ column.

Plus, summer cookout costs, H-2A rule changes and more… catch up on seven can’t-miss ag stories from the past week.

Corn acreage expected to increase slightly

July corn futures were unchanged at $4.1750 per bushel late in overnight trading after gaining 8 cents Friday to halt a five-day losing streak. December corn fell 2.75 cents to $4.2425 after adding 6 cents Friday to $4.27, ending a five-day slide to a contract low. The new-crop contract fell 14.25 cents last week, its third consecutive weekly decline.

Corn technicals remain bearish in the wake of last week’s chart collapse, though the market is nearing oversold levels and any bullish surprises in Monday’s USDA reports could spark a short covering rally that gives the market some breathing room above last week’s contract lows. Managed money speculators have expanded bearish bets in corn futures four weeks in a row, based on CFTC data, and as of June 23 held its biggest net short in nearly 10 months.

Downside levels to watch in December corn futures include last week’s contract low at $4.1925. A breach of that level could pave the way for a test of $4. Upside levels to watch include the 10-day simple moving average (SMA) at $4.3150.

Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price rose about 8 cents Friday to $3.94 but was still down about 11 cents for the week and remained near a seven-month low.

Weather remains bearish, with more rainfall expected over much of the Midwest this week along with warm temperatures as the critical pollination phase nears. Monday’s Acreage report, which is based on a survey of about 64,000 farm operators, is expected to show slightly higher corn plantings than the agency predicted in March.

Corn plantings are seen coming in around 95.35 million acres, based on a Reuters survey of analysts. That would be up from USDA’s March forecast of 95.326 million acres, which would be a 12-year high. Acreage estimates ranged from 93.75 million acres to 96.8 million acres.

Ahead of USDA's Grain Stocks report, also out Monday, traders expected U.S. corn supplies as of June 1 totaled about 4.641 billion bushels, down about 7.1% from 4.997 billion bushels on the same date in 2024, based on a Reuters survey.

USDA will also update its weekly crop ratings later today. A week ago, ratings for corn unexpectedly decline, with USDA rating 70% of the U.S. corn crop in either “good” or “excellent” condition as of June 22, down from 70% a week earlier but up from 69% a year earlier. The overall crop was 97% emerged as of Sunday, up from 94% a week earlier and slightly under the 98% average for the previous five years. Ohio improved to 92% emerged from 86% a week earlier.

Brazil's safrinha corn harvest is behind schedule but initial yields have proven strong, triggering a sharp price drop in the country’s grain market. For U.S. producers, this creates additional uncertainty amid an already challenging season. In an Ag Marketing IQ column, farmer Matthew Kruse sounds a note of caution, saying the market may be “putting the cart ahead of the horse.”

Weather seen beneficial for soybean crop

July soybeans rose 1.5 cents to $10.2925 after advancing 5 cents Friday to $10.2775 to break a five-day downswing that sent the nearby contract to a 2 ½-month low. November soybeans rose 3 cents to $10.2775 after climbing 8.25 cents Friday to $10.2475, the new-crop contract’s first gain in six sessions. The contract dropped 36 cents for the week to halt a three-week winning streak.

Soybean technicals were shored up to some extent with Friday’s corrective rebound but still lean bearish, with prices near the lower end of the past two months’ trading range and continue to trade below key resistance levels including the 100- and 200-day SMAs ($10.3150 and $10.3325, respectively). A push below last week’s November futures intraday low at $10.1325 could prompt bears to aim for the May intraday low at $10.1150 as well as the $10 area.

Additionally, speculators are sharply paring back bullish bets on the soybean market, with the managed money net long in soybean futures slashed by nearly 26,000 contracts during the week ended June 24 to 35,396 contracts.

Barchart’s national front-month cash soybean price rose about 4.75 cents Friday to $9.8450 but was still down about 35 cents for the week.

Soybeans’ rally potential remains limited by favorable U.S. growing conditions, a recent pullback in crude oil prices and sluggish export commitments for the upcoming 2025-26 marketing year.

Based on the Reuters survey, USDA’s report Monday is expected to show soybean plantings at about 83.655 million acres, up from the 83.495 million acres the agency forecast in March but still down from the 87.05 million acres planted in 2024.

As for the USDA Grain Stocks report, U.S. soybean stockpiles as of June 1 were expected to come in around 980 million bushels, up 1% from 970 million bushels a year earlier.

Traders may be looking for improvement in USDA’s weekly crop ratings for soybeans after widespread Midwest rainfall last week.

A week ago, USDA reported its 18-state combined good-to-excellent rating for soybeans was 66% as of June 22, unchanged from the previous week and below the 67% year-earlier level. Among states, Iowa’s good-to-excellent rating fell to 77% from 80% a week earlier, while Ohio improved to 57% from 54%.

Overall, the U.S. crop was 96% planted as of June 22, up from 93% a week earlier but under the 97% five-year average. About 90% of the crop had emerged, up from 84% a week earlier and even with the five-year average.

Also Friday, USDA reported private exporter soybean sales totaling 119,746 metric tons (4.4 million bushels) for delivery to Mexico during the 2024-25 marketing year. Friday’s announcement came a day after USDA reported a private sale of 110,000 MT to Egypt, also for 2024-25 delivery.

USDA may lower winter wheat acreage

September SRW wheat futures fell 2.75 cents to $5.38 late overnight after adding 4 cents Friday to $5.4075, the most-active contract’s first gain in six days. Futures still shed 42.75 cents, or 7.3%, for the week.

Wheat technicals lean bearish with September SRW futures having tumbled about 56 cents, or 9.5%, from a three-month intraday high of $5.94 posted June 20 and prices near a six-week intraday low of $5.3625 hit last Thursday. A breach of that level could have bears aiming for the contract low of $5.2125 posted in mid-May.

September HRW futures fell 3 cents to $5.3075 after dropping 45 cents last week. September spring wheat fell 5 cents to $6.23.

Bearish weather and supply dynamics continue to burden the wheat market. Trade focus is largely on an accelerating Plains harvest and ample global supplies. Last week, the consultancy Sovecon raised its forecast for Russia’s wheat crop by 200,000 MT to 83 MMT (3.05 billion bushels).

In Monday’s Acreage update, USDA is expected to slightly raise its estimate for all U.S. wheat plantings to 45.438 million acres from 45.35 million acres in the agency’s March report. Winter wheat seedings may lowered to 33.299 million acres from 33.315 million acres in March, based on the Reuters survey.

Also Monday, USDA’s quarterly Grain Stocks update is expected to show U.S. wheat supplies totaled about 836 million bushels as of June 1, up 20% from 696 million bushels on the same date a year earlier.

USDA’s weekly crop condition update for winter wheat will be watched for any signs of improvement after ratings deteriorated the previous two weeks. Traders will also watch for any signs wheat farmers may be catching up on harvest after rains delayed fieldwork earlier this month.

For winter wheat, USDA’s 18-state combined good-to-excellent rating fell to 49% as of June 22, from 52% a week earlier and the second consecutive weekly decline. The good-to-excellent rating was 52% a year ago. Kansas’ good-to-excellent rating slumped to 45% from 49% a week earlier. Spring wheat conditions also eroded, with the good-to-excellent rating dropping to 54% from 57%.

The winter wheat harvest was 19% complete as of June 22, up from 10% a week earlier but behind the 28% five-year average for that date. Texas again led the way with 70% of the state’s crop harvested, while Kansas was at 20%.

Disappointing export data also burdened wheat futures, dampening optimism over what had been a strong start to foreign buyer commitments early in the 2025-26 marketing year.

Warm and wet for first half of July

Light rains ranging from 0.1 inch to 0.5 inch will fall across the central and eastern Corn Belt today through Thursday, based on the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Parts of Ohio could receive heavier amounts of 0.5 inches to 1.25 inches. The western Corn Belt and the Northern and Central Plains will be mostly dry.

The first half of July will bring warmer-than-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation prospects for most of the central U.S., with the greatest temperature extremes expected for the eastern Corn Belt, based on the National Weather Service’s 6-to-10 and 8-to-14-day outlooks, which cover July 5-13.

Stocks poised to extend record rally

Stock index futures climbed overnight in the wake of a record week amid optimism over trade negotiations between the U.S. and key partners. Japan’s top trade negotiator extended his stay in the U.S. for further talks, saying negotiations have reached “a critical juncture.”

Futures based on the S&P 500 index rose almost 0.5%, while futures linked to the Nasdaq-100 and the Dow industrials each rose about 0.6%. The underlying S&P 500 rose 3.4% last week and closed at a record high slightly above 6,173.

The U.S. dollar index rose 0.1% after earlier sinking to its weakest level since early 2022. August WTI crude oil futures fell 30 cents to $65.22 per barrel.

What else I’m reading at www.FarmFutures.com this morning: