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December 2026 corn has been trading mostly between $4.40 to $4.70 for months, but a recent rally has the new-crop contract knocking against the top end of that range. Is a breakout coming? Whatever happens, farmers should consider strategies for moves above or below those levels to protect downside and keep upside open, says Brian Splitt, chief strategist for AgMarket.Net. “You have to have a structure in place where you have a worst-case scenario established.”
Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.
Corn futures dragged lower in overnight trading
March corn futures dropped 2.5 cents lower per bushel in late overnight trading to $4.2925 after edging up 0.5 cent Friday to $4.3175, the contract’s second straight daily gain and its highest close since February 5. Futures gained 1.5 cents last week for the market’s third advance in the past four weeks.
Corn futures remain in a month-long uptrend after March futures tumbled to a four-month low at $4.1725 shortly following USDA’s surprisingly bearish crop reports on January 12. Upside levels to watch include $4.36, March futures’ intraday high so far for February. Downside levels to watch include last week’s low at $4.2525.
Corn futures gained last week with help from spillover from a soybean rally and from stronger than expected weekly export sales numbers. USDA’s Supply and Demand update last week also included some price-friendly numbers on export demand.
USDA will remain in market focus this week with the agency’s annual Agricultural Outlook Forum scheduled Thursday and Friday outside Washington, D.C. The forum typically provides USDA’s first comprehensive assessment of the upcoming crop year, including closely watched estimates on acreage, yields and supplies.
These acreage forecasts and other estimates aren’t based on farmer surveys and can vary significantly from final numbers. Last year, USDA forecast 2025 corn plantings at 94 million acres and an average nationwide yield at 181 bushels per acre (bpa). Production was projected at 15.59 billion bushels.
Those estimates turned out to be well short of the final numbers, with farmers planting 98.79 million acres to corn, the highest since 1936, and reaping a record 17.02 billion-bushel harvest – of little surprise, considering the agency’s record mark of 186.5 bpa average yield.
A record export pace continues to underpin corn prices, meantime. Last Thursday, USDA said net U.S. corn sales during the week ending February 5 totaled 2.07 million metric tons (81.5 million bushels), which nearly doubled the previous week’s figure and was 6% above the average for the previous four weeks.
For the 2025-26 marketing year so far, sales commitments (including accumulated exports) now total 2.394 billion bushels, up 31% from the same period in 2024-25 and already almost 73% of USDA’s just-increased full-year export target at 3.3 billion bushels, a record.
Last week’s strong numbers came two days after USDA’s monthly Supply and Demand update, which included the agency’s fourth hike to its corn export forecast since August. USDA raised its 2025-26 export estimate by another 100 million bushels to a record 3.3 billion bushels.
USDA’s report also reflected a slightly tighter corn balance sheet. USDA trimmed U.S. 2025-26 ending corn stocks 100 million bushels, to an estimated 2.127 billion bushels, though that would still be a 37% jump from 2024-25, if realized.
Farmers coming off a difficult 2025 are looking at a similar picture for 2026: below-breakeven grain prices, high input costs, tight margins. But it’s still early and much remains in flux, says Matt Bennett, CEO of AgMarket.Net. He recommends patience with marketing strategy, noting farmers retain a key ally in strong corn demand. “I want to kind of wait and see how this thing plays out,” he says.
Soybeans eased slightly lower ahead of Tuesday’s session
March soybeans inched 0.75 cents lower to $11.3225 after slipping 4.25 cents Friday to $11.33, the first decline in four days after reaching a 10-week high Thursday. Futures still gained 17.75 cents last week for a second consecutive weekly advance.
Soybeans underwent a modest corrective pullback late last week but remain in a steep uptrend from early-February lows. March soybeans have gained more than 75 cents from a February 2 low of around $10.52.
Upside levels to watch in March futures include Thursday’s two-month intraday high at $11.4150. A close above the $11.40 area could have bulls targeting the December intraday high at $11.4975 and the November high at $11.7250. Downside levels to watch include last week’s low at $11.06.
March soymeal prices were down almost 1% overnight after the contract posted its fourth consecutive gain Friday and settled at the highest level in over two months. March soyoil prices shifted another 0.75% higher after jumping over 3% last week.
Soybeans took some late-week corrective selling and profit-taking but continue to find support from demand-driven optimism linked to hopes for additional Chinese business and for higher federal biofuels mandates. The accelerating bullishness has overwhelmed a largely bearish fundamental reality, including slumping export sales and the accelerating harvest of what’s expected to be a massive Brazilian crop.
Soybean traders await today’s weekly export inspections report, delayed a day due to Monday’s holiday. Other possible market influencers this week include estimates released during USDA’s annual Outlook Forum, which could also be a market influencer.
At last year’s forum, USDA forecasted 2025 U.S. soybean plantings at 84 million acres and the average nationwide yield at 52.5 bpa. Production was pegged at 4.37 billion bushels. Farmers ended up seeding 81.2 million acres to soybeans, a six-year low, while yields averaged a record 53 bpa. Final production came in at 4.26 billion bushels.
Traders will keep a close eye on any developments in U.S.-China relations. USDA’s export sales report last Thursday confirmed additional China purchases but also reflected an extended slump in overall exports.
Net U.S. soybean sales fell to a marketing-year low at 281,800 MT (10.4 million bushels) during the week ending February 5, down 36% from the previous week 80% below the four-week average. Sales missed the low end of expectations, which ranged from 300,000 MT to 1.1 MMT. China led buyers at 286,100 MT, including 201,000 MT switched from “unknown destinations.”
Exports for the marketing year that began September 1 continued to sharply lag last year after China stopped buying U.S. beans for about six months in 2025 amid a trade dispute with the Trump administration. For 2025-26 to date, U.S. export commitments (including accumulated exports) now total 1.27 billion bushels, down 20% from the same period last year and a six-year low.
Based on Thursday’s report, USDA-confirmed China purchases for 2025-26 total about 10.2 MMT (373.8 million bushels). However, China is believed to have already met a 12-MMT near-term target stemming from last fall’s Beijing-Washington trade truce. That would still leave China’s purchase commitments down sharply from roughly 20.6 MMT at this point in 2024-25.
Wheat prices struggle ahead of Tuesday’s session
March SRW wheat futures stumbled 9.5 cents lower to $5.3925 after dropping 3.75 cents Friday to $5.4875, down from a three-month high close the day prior. Futures still gained 19 cents last week to record the market’s fifth weekly advance in the past six weeks.
March HRW wheat futures were down 5.75 cents to $5.3675 after tumbling 11.5 cents Friday to $5.4250, down from a six-month closing high on Thursday. March spring wheat faced fractional overnight losses and is at $5.7025.
Wheat futures followed corn and soybeans higher Thursday, which helped fuel fund short covering that allowed SRW and HRW futures to break out above recent trading ranges. Signs of improvement in export demand also encouraged wheat buyers.
Net U.S. wheat sales for the week ending February 5 totaled 488,000 MT (17.9 million bushels), up 31% from the previous week and up 14% from the average for the previous four weeks. Sales came in at the high end of expectations and were led by the Philippines at 127,000 MT, followed by Mexico at 110,800 MT.
For 2025-26 to date, U.S. wheat sales commitments (including accumulated exports) now total 819.7 million bushels, up almost 17% from the same period in 2024-25 and 91% of USDA’s full-year target of 900 million bushels.
Price upside likely will be limited by bearish supply fundamentals underscored by USDA’s Supply and Demand report earlier this month. USDA unexpectedly raised its outlook for 2025-26 U.S. wheat ending stocks, pushing up supplies by 5 million bushels to 931 million bushels, up almost 9% from 2024-25.
However, estimated global ending stocks shrank 0.3% to 277.5 MMT, contrary to expectations for little change. Global stocks are still on track to expand nearly 7% from last year to a five-year high. Among top wheat producers, Argentina’s estimated crop was raised 1.1% to a record 27.8 MMT.
Elsewhere, Russian consultancy IKAR raised its estimate for the country’s 2026 wheat production by 3 MMT, or 3.4% to 91 MMT (3.34 billion bushels. The firm estimated exports for 2026-27 at 47.5 MMT. FranceAgriMer estimated the French soft wheat crop at 91% good-to-excellent as of February 9, up from 73% a year earlier.
Stocks bled into the red to start the holiday-shortened week
Stock index futures were in the red overnight following a down week for U.S. equities, even after economic updates showed stronger than expected job growth and relatively tame inflation.
Futures based on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 indexes fell 0.43% and 0.84%, respectively, while Dow futures eased around 0.25% lower.
The U.S. dollar index firmed moderately after weakening 0.8% last week.
March WTI crude oil futures climbed 1.1% higher to crest $63 per barrel.
Gold futures stumbled almost 2% lower to $4,945 per ounce.