Farmfutures

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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.

What we’re watching

As harvest winds down, farmers should be ready to pounce on higher price opportunities in corn and soybeans while also protecting against downside. Insurance decisions for the 2026 crop are another important consideration. Advance Trading’s Brian Basting and Cesar Cruz walk through a few pointers in an Ag Marketing IQ post.

Corn supported by strong demand

December corn fell 2 cents to $4.26 per bushel late in overnight trading after jumping 5 cents Thursday to $4.28, the contract’s sixth advance in the past seven days and its highest close since September 16. Futures are up from $4.2250 at the end of last week and tracking for a second straight weekly advance.

Corn technicals took a bullish turn with this week’s upside breakout above the range that held for much of the month. A strong close today could have bulls taking aim next week at the $4.30 area in December futures, just under a double-top high at $4.3125 posted in mid-September. The previous venture above $4.30 was met with farmer selling, which could cap further price upside.

Futures are on track for a fourth close this week above the 100-day simple moving average, currently $4.2050, with the 200-day SMA coming in at $4.3750. Near-term support is seen at the 10- and 100-day SMAs, which coincide at $4.2050, and this week’s low at $4.1850.

Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price rose over 5 cents Thursday to $3.8725, up from $3.8050 at the end of last week and near a three-month high. The price was about 40.75 cents below December futures, down slightly from 42 cents at the end of last week.

Corn futures gained buying support this week behind strong demand from ethanol producers and exporters, which has helped firm cash markets. Additional support stemmed from reports of disappointing or lower than expected harvest results that may eventually prompt USDA to lower its yield estimates. With a mostly dry weekend expected, farmers should be able to make further progress with harvest, which was believed to be about three-fifths complete at the start of the week.

Traders will continue to monitor trade developments as the government shutdown extends another week, leaving the market without most regular USDA data releases, including weekly export sales.

Sales likely remained strong last week. Traders surveyed by Reuters expected net corn sales ranging from 800,000 metric tons to 2 million metric tons (31.5 million to 78.7 million bushels) during the week ended October 16. Based on weekly export inspections data, which USDA is still reporting, U.S. corn shipments for the 2025-26 marketing year to date totaled 367.6 million bushels, up 61% from the same period in 2024-25.

On Thursday, the Trump administration said it will quadruple the country's low-tariff imports of Argentine beef in an attempt to lower beef prices, which drew anger from the nation's cattle ranchers. Raising the tariff rate quota on Argentine beef to 80,000 MT will let the country ship more of its beef to the U.S. at a lower rate of duty, Reuters reported.

“A deal of this magnitude with Argentina would undercut the very foundation of our cattle industry,” said Justin Tupper, a South Dakota cattle producer and president of the United States Cattlemen's Association, according to Reuters.

China has been dominating the ag media headlines lately, but interesting stories are brewing beneath the surface in soybeans, including a firming trend in basis. With harvest nearly done, a “steadier tone” is emerging, making it important to watch basis bids closely, AgMarket.Net’s Jason Meyer says. “Quiet strength often shows up before the headlines do,” Meyer writes in an Ag Marketing IQ post.

Soybeans lifted by trade deal hopes

November soybeans fell 1.5 cents to $10.4325 late overnight after earlier touching $10.4550, the contract’s highest intraday price since $10.4775 on September 19. The contract rallied 10 cents Thursday for its fifth gain in the past six days. Futures are up from $10.1950 at the end of last week and heading for a second consecutive weekly advance.

January futures fell 1.25 cents to $10.6075, up from $10.3675 at the end of last week.

Soybean technicals took a bullish turn with this week’s chart breakout, with November futures having rallied over 40 cents so far this month and poised to close above both the 100- and 200-day SMAs ($10.2625 and $10.2950) for the fifth day in a row. Continued strength could prompt bulls to gun for a test of the $10.50 area and the September high at $10.5275.

Near-term support in November futures includes Wednesday’s low at $10.2750 and this week’s low at $10.1975.

Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price rose about 10.75 cents Thursday to $9.7525, up from $9.4550 at the end of last week and at the highest level since the end of August. The price was about 69.5 cents below November futures, compared to 74 cents a week ago.

December soybean meal rose 20 cents to $292.50 per ton after rising 0.8% Thursday to $292.30, the contract’s eighth straight daily advance and its highest close since August 26. December soyoil fell 21 points to 50.66 cents per pound and is down from 51.13 at the end of last week.

Soybean futures came under mild profit-taking pressure overnight in the wake of sharp gains earlier this week. Prices climbed this week behind cash market strength and strong crushing demand, as well as hopes a scheduled meeting next between President Trump and Xi Jinping, his Chinese counterpart, will lead to a trade deal that includes purchases of U.S. soybeans.

Rumors of Chinese soybean purchases circulated through the trade Thursday but there remains no concrete confirmation of China business, and U.S. exports continue to lag.

Net U.S. soybean sales during the week ended October 16 were an estimated 600,000 MT to 2 MMT (22 million to 73.5 million), based on the Reuters survey. USDA inspections data reported Monday showed U.S. shipments for the 2025-26 marketing year to date totaled 205.1 million bushels, down 31% from the same period in 2024-25.

China imported roughly 841 million bushels of U.S. soybeans during the 2024-25 marketing year, or about 45% of total U.S. exports, based on USDA figures. However, China has yet to purchase any U.S. beans for 2025-26, and it may require about 367 million bushels to cover its needs until the South American harvest begins in January.

Wheat boosted by corn, soybean spillover

December SRW wheat futures rose 0.25 cent to $5.1325 late overnight after earlier reaching $5.1450, the contract’s highest intraday price since $5.1825 on October 6. Futures are up from $5.0375 at the end of last week and on track for a second straight weekly advance.

SRW futures are showing signs of bottoming as the market extends a modest climb from a contract low of $4.9225 posted October 14. On Thursday, the December contract recorded its first close above the 20-day SMA (currently $5.0675) since September 25. Upside targets for bulls include the 50-day SMA at $5.1725.

December HRW futures rose 1 cent to $5.01 after rallying 11.5 cents Thursday to $5.00, the contract’s first close above that price since September 29 as the market extends a recovery from a contract low of $4.7725 posted October 14.

December spring wheat fell 2 cents to $5.56 after posting a modest rebound from Tuesday’s drop to a contract low at $5.4450.

Wheat futures gained support this week as strength in corn and soybeans encouraged buying. Additionally, export demand remains strong with U.S. wheat futures hovering near five-year lows.

Price upside likely will be limited by widespread rains expected across the Southern Plains late this week that should bring moisture relief to recently-seeded winter wheat.

Net U.S. wheat exports during the week ended October 16 ranged from 350,000 MT to 650,000 MT (12.9 million to 23.9 million bushels), based on the Reuters survey. For 2025-26 to date, wheat shipments totaled 411.2 million bushels, 20% above the same period in 2024-25 and a 12-year high at this stage of the marketing year, which began June 1.

The U.S. winter wheat crop is estimated to be at least 75% planted, though progress could slow as a storm system brings rain across the Southern Plains late this week.

The International Grains Council raised its 2025-26 world wheat production estimate by 1% to 827 MMT (30.4 billion bushels).

Elsewhere, some of the world’s top wheat growers may be in line for needed moisture. Wheat-growing areas of Russia, Ukraine and western Kazakhstan received mix of rain and sunshine during the past week, with some parts getting enough rain to bolster soil moisture while others remained a little too dry, according to World Weather, Inc.

“Additional widespread precipitation is needed to more completely moisten the soil and improve winter crop establishment after weeks of limited precipitation,” the forecaster said.

“Another week to 10 days of periodic rain and sunshine is expected, and this time the precipitation should be better distributed so that all crop areas benefit fully. The precipitation should induce better establishment and long-term development potentials.”

Temperatures cooling as November nears

Abundant and potentially heavy rains may blanket the Southern Plains and Delta today through Monday, with central Oklahoma potentially receiving 2 inches to over 3 inches, based on NOAA’s 72-hour precipitation map. For the Midwest, only trace amounts or no rain at all are expected during that period.

Temperatures across the Midwest should shift closer to normal levels late this month and in early November while conditions also turn drier, based on the National Weather Service’s 6-to-10-day and 8-to-14-day outlooks. The 6-to-10-day outlook, which covers October 29-November 2, has shifted drier, with normal or below-normal precipitation prospects expected for the central and western Corn Belt. Above-normal precipitation is seen for the eastern Corn Belt.

Stock index futures firmer ahead of CPI report

Stock index futures climbed overnight as investors waited for today’s Consumer Price Index report, the last major economic release before Federal Reserve policy makers meet next week. Analysts expect overall CPI in August rose 0.2% from July and was up 3.1% from the same month in 2024, levels that shouldn’t stand in the way of a Fed rate cut following next week’s meeting.

Futures based on the S&P 500 index rose about 0.3%, while futures based on the Nasdaq-100 added over 0.4%. The U.S. dollar index gained less than 0.1% and was up 0.5% for the week.

December WTI crude oil futures gained 43 cents to $62.22 and reached a two-week high as the market extended a rally triggered by the Trump administration’s imposition of further sanctions on Russia’s two biggest oil companies.