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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.
What we’re watching
Like it or not, farmland has become an infrastructural landing zone for energy expansion as AI’s explosive growth demands ever-expanding sources of power. As solar development accelerates, Midwest farmland is “in a weird set of crosshairs” Farm Progress executive editor Holly Spangler says. “Is it a business opportunity or unwanted attention? Depending on who you ask, it’s both.”
Corn slips as outside markets weaken
March corn futures fell 2 cents to $4.2875 per bushel in late overnight trading after edging up 0.75 cent Thursday to $4.3075, the contract’s highest close since January 9. Futures are down from $4.3050 at the end of last week.
Corn faded overnight following two days of gains as March futures retreated back toward the middle of this week’s range. The market was able to extend a recent rally the past two days but gains faded both times, suggesting a lack of bullish conviction that could lead to sideways trade into early February. March futures failed to close above the 20-day simple moving average (SMA), currently $4.3075, the past two days.
March futures face resistance around $4.35, 1 cent above Thursday’s intraday high. Initial support comes in at the 10-day SMA around $4.27 and this week’s low at $4.26.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price rose almost 1.75 cents Thursday to just over $3.9525. Thursday’s average was about 35.5 cents below March futures, narrowing from 37.25 cents a week earlier.
Corn futures saw a corrective selling overnight as grain traders continued to monitor outside markets. A slump in the U.S. dollar and rallies in crude oil and metals helped fuel broader commodity market strength earlier this week. But the dollar has rebounded in recent days and both oil and gold tumbled overnight. Outside markets bear watching into the new month.
USDA’s weekly export sales report Thursday showed a sharp dropoff from an historic high earlier this month as expected, but demand continues to run at a record pace for the full year.
Net U.S. corn sales totaled 1.649 million metric tons (64.9 million bushels) during the week ended January 22, down 59% from a five-year high hit the previous week but still up 5% from the average for the previous four weeks, USDA reported. Sales were just below the mid-point of trade expectations and were led by Japan at 365,100 metric tons (MT), followed by Mexico at 350,800 MT.
For the 2025-26 marketing year to date, sales continue to run at a brisk clip that could exceed USDA’s full-year export projection for a record 3.2 billion bushels. Sales commitments (including accumulated exports) now total 2.271 billion bushels, up 33% from the same period in 2024-25.
Corn prices drew support earlier this week after President Trump, in an Iowa speech, expressed support for E15 gasoline. Trump reaffirmed his support for permanent, nationwide sales of E15, saying Congress is “very close to getting it done” and promised to sign any legislation without delay once it reaches his desk. Greater use of ethanol in the nation’s gasoline supply could provide a longer-term demand boost that may help whittle down heavy supplies from a record harvest.
Trump’s remarks came less than a week after legislation providing for the year-round sale of E15, which has a higher ethanol content than the widely-available E10 gasoline, was left out of a House spending package. Instead, Republican U.S. lawmakers plan to create a task force to study potential year-round sales of higher-ethanol E15 gasoline blends in the U.S.
Questions over Brazil’s second corn crop, known as the safrinha, are bubbling up, Total Farm Marketing’s Naomi Blohm says. The safrinha is typically planted in late February and early March, shortly after Brazil farmers harvest soybeans. “Can the Brazil corn crop afford to lose any production? Not really. And that matters to global corn production.” Read Blohm’s latest Ag Marketing IQ post.
Soybeans lower after export sales fall off
March soybeans rose 5.75 cents to $10.6650 overnight after fading from an early climb Thursday to a six-week high to end with a loss of 2.75 cents. Futures are down from $10.6775 at the end of last week. November futures fell 6 cents to $10.8375, dropping the soybean-to-corn ratio to about 2.37, down from an eight-week high earlier this week.
Soybean technicals have softened this week the recent rally from three-month lows hit in mid-January appears to be losing momentum. Early Thursday, March futures jumped to a six-week high at $10.8550 but couldn’t sustain gains after running into resistance near the 50-day SMA (about $10.85), a level the contract hasn’t closed above since December 8. Near-term support is seen at the 10- and 20-day SMAs ($10.65 and $10.5925, respectively), and this week’s low ($10.5850). Futures are still up about 28 cents from a mid-January low at $10.3775.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price fell nearly 2.75 cents Thursday to $10.05, down from a seven-week high. Thursday’s average was about 67.25 cents below March futures, narrowing from 70 cents a week earlier.
The soy complex came under pressure overnight from as a slide in crude oil futures encouraged profit-taking following soybeans’ recent rally. Signs that a recent resurgence in soybean exports is tapering off also weighed on prices, with China’s demand slowing.
USDA reported net U.S. soybean sales during the week ended January at 819,000 MT (30.1 million bushels), down 67% from the previous week but still up 92% from the average from the previous four weeks. Sales were at the low end of expectations and were led by China at 233,500 MT, including 66,000 MT switched from “unknown destinations.”
Soybean exports continue to lag sharply behind last year’s pace after China stopped buying U.S. beans for about six months in 2025 due to a protracted dispute with the Trump administration. For 2025-26 to date, U.S. export commitments (including accumulated exports) now total 1.243 billion bushels, down 20% from the same period last year.
Based on Thursday’s report, USDA-confirmed China purchases for 2025-26 total about 9.65 MMT (354.7 million bushels), though the country is believed to have already met a 12-MMT near-term target that arose from last fall’s trade truce between Beijing and Washington. That would still leave China’s purchase commitments down sharply from roughly 20.2 MMT at this point in 2024-25.
Soybeans remains underpinned by hopes for higher federal biofuels mandates, with President Trump expressing support for the industry in his Iowa speech Tuesday. Last week, reports circulated the administration was weighing sharply higher biodiesel blending targets.
Elsewhere, weather in Brazil remains largely favorable for crop development and harvest is accelerating. But extreme heat and dryness in Argentina threatens to trim corn and soybean yields.
With temperatures soaring near 104 degrees Fahrenheit in recent days, Argentina’s key growing regions are in urgent need of rain, but significant relief is not forecast until February, Reuters reported. “This heat wave will reduce corn yields,” meteorologist German Heinzenknecht told Reuters. He downward revisions to production estimates are likely, with early-planted corn being the most affected.
Wheat lifted by dollar slump, improved exports
March SRW wheat rose 2.25 cents to $5.4375 after earlier touching $5.4475, the contract’s highest intraday price since November 26. Futures are poised for a third consecutive daily advance and are up from $5.2950 at the end of last week, heading for a fourth straight weekly gain.
Wheat technicals continued to strengthen as March SRW futures’ push above key long-term SMAs sparked fund short covering. March futures are on track for a third consecutive close above both the 50- and 100-day SMAs (currently $5.2450 and $5.3075). Bulls may now be targeting the $5.45 area, near late-November highs, and $5.50.
March HRW wheat rose 1.75 cents to $5.4875 after adding 4.75 cents Thursday to $5.47, the highest close since November 5. March spring wheat fell 1 cent to $5.8050 after adding 7.5 cents Thursday to $5.8150, the highest close in over two months.
Wheat futures extended gains overnight amid ideas dollar weakness will lead to improved export demand. Those hopes combined with firmer technicals to fuel speculator short covering in SRW and HRW markets this week.
However, sustained rallies will likely run into resistance from a bearish global supply outlook. Last weekend’s ice and freezing temperatures may have caused some winterkill to a small fraction of winter wheat acreage, but the actual impact won’t be known for months. Meantime, rallies continue to be viewed as selling opportunities.
Weather in other top world growing regions lingers as a background concern. Parts of Ukraine are expected to experience extreme cold next week, raising the prospect of winterkill for one of the world’s top wheat exporters. Temperatures could drop as low as minus-20 Fahrenheit, according to industry sources.
Wheat futures came under pressure overnight despite signs of improvement in export demand. USDA reported net U.S. wheat sales of 558,200 MT for the week ended January 22, down 10% from the previous week and more than double the average for the previous four weeks. Sales were at the high end of expectations and were led by Japan at 114,300 MT.
For 2025-26 to date, U.S. wheat sales commitments (including accumulated exports) now total 788 million bushels, up 18% from the same period in 2024-25 and almost 88% of USDA’s full-year target of 900 million bushels.
Elsewhere, the European Commission on Thursday said it lowered its 2025-26 European Union wheat production estimate by 0.1% to 134.2 MMT (4.93 billion bushels). The commission also reduced its EU export forecast. Exports are now seen at 29.5 MMT, down 4.8% from a prior estimate. Ending stocks may expand to 13 MMT, up 11% from a previous estimate.
Stock index futures lower, gold and silver plunge
Stock index futures were lower late in overnight trading after President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair. Warsh is a former Fed governor whose credibility could ease investors concerns over the central bank’s independence.
Futures based on the S&P 500 index and the Dow industrials both fell almost 0.4%, while Nasdaq-100 futures eased about 0.5%. The U.S. dollar index was up less than 0.1% as the benchmark continued to stabilize following a slump near four-year lows earlier this week.
March WTI crude oil futures fell 35 cents to $65.07 per barrel amid indications the U.S. may engage in dialog with Iran over its nuclear program, easing concern over possible supply disruptions from a U.S. attack. Crude futures are still up over 6% this week and reached a six-month high Thursday.
Gold futures fell over 3% to about $5,137 per ounce a day after soaring above $5,586, a record for an eighth consecutive day, amid ongoing safe-haven buying. Silver futures plunged almost 10%.