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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.

What we’re watching

Grain market focus this month has been consumed by the Iran war, but there’s another country farmers should be watching closely: Brazil. Planting of the country’s second corn crop, known as safrinha, is behind as the dry season looms. The safrinha crop is the primary competitor to the U.S. in export markets. “The sluggish planting place could directly affect final yields,” Advance Trading’s Brian Basting says. “That’s because Brazil has a unique climate.”

Corn gets boost from surging crude oil

May corn futures rose 2.5 cents to $4.5650 per bushel late in overnight trading after sinking 13.25 cents Monday to $4.54, halting a three-day win streak. December futures rose 3 cents to $4.83.

Corn technicals stabilized overnight as May futures rebounded from Monday’s low at $4.52 and pushed back above the 10-day simple moving average (SMA), currently about $4.5625. Whether the market can hold Monday’s low will be one key to near-term direction. Prices are still well off the 10-month high at $4.76 posted March 9. Other downside levels to watch include the $4.50 area and last week’s low at $4.4550.

Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price fell 13 cents Monday to just over $4.1050. Monday’s average was about 43.5 cents below May futures, narrowing from 43.75 cents a week earlier.

Corn futures joined the rest of the grain and oilseed complex in following overnight gains in crude oil, which rose after Iran intensified attacks on energy infrastructure around the Persian Gulf. Among recent developments, operations were halted at an oil field in the United Arab Emirates. Also, no immediate relief emerged for the Strait of Hormuz, as several U.S. allies rejected President Trump’s request to help reopen the key oil route.

April WTI crude futures rose $3.18 to $96.68 late in overnight trading. Oil futures are up over 43% this month after ending February around $67.

Grain futures fell Monday after President Trump said the U.S. asked to delay his planned meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing by “a month or so” due to the ongoing war with Iran. Trump was expected to travel to China at the end of March for the meeting with Xi. On Sunday, Trump threatened to delay the meeting if Beijing didn’t help secure the Strait of Hormuz.

Corn futures may be vulnerable to more profit-taking after speculators bought heavily this month. The managed money net long in corn futures as of March 9 neared 199,000 contracts, the largest in a year and the equivalent of nearly 1 billion bushels, based on Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.

The fund net long is “excessive given the non-war fundamentals, so that will need to be dealt with at some point in the coming days and weeks,” John Zanker, senior analyst at Farmer’s Keeper Financial, LLC, said in a report.

An expected pullback in U.S. corn plantings this year could be magnified by the Middle East war, which disrupted global fertilizer markets and sent prices for urea and other key crop nutrients soaring, Zanker added. In February, USDA forecast 2026 U.S. corn plantings at 94 million acres, down almost 5% from a nine-decade high in 2025. The agency will release its annual Prospective Plantings report March 31.

A sharply lower acreage number from USDA “would certainly help the bullish cause and the sharp jump in fertilizer prices might help push along that process,” Zanker said.

USDA’s weekly inspections data continued to reflect robust corn export demand. Corn inspected for export during the week ended March 12 totaled 1.659 million metric tons (65.3 million bushels), up 6.8% from the previous week but down 2% from the same week a year earlier. Mexico was the top destination at 446,121 metric tons.

For 2025-26 to date, corn shipments now total 1.688 billion bushels, up 39% from the same period in 2024-25 and 51% of USDA’s full-year export projection, a record 3.3 billion bushels.

Elsewhere, Brazilian consultancy AgRural reported 50% of the country’s first corn crop was harvested as of last Thursday, sharply lagging last year’s pace at 72%. Brazil’s second corn crop plantings were 91% complete, behind the 97% from a year earlier.

Soybeans supported by strong crushing pace

May soybeans rose 8 cents to $11.6325 overnight after earlier dropping to $11.4525, the contract’s lowest price since February 24. Futures plunged the 70-cent daily limit Monday and are down almost 75 cents, or 6%, from a 21-month intraday high at $12.3875 last Thursday. November soybeans jumped 15.75 cents to $11.3650.

Soybeans stabilized overnight following Monday’s sell-off but have still incurred some potentially severe chart damage for the bulls, with May futures breaking below a sharp uptrend line drawn from January lows. Monday’s slide sent May futures to the market's first close below both the 10- and 20-day SMAs ($11.9325 and $11.7650, respectively), since mid-January. Downside levels to watch include the $11.40 area and the late-February low at $11.3650.

Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price fell about 70.25 cents Monday to $10.80. Monday’s average was about 75.25 cents below May futures, widening from 7475 cents a week earlier.

May soybean meal rose 60 cents to $312.80 per ton after slumping over $10 Monday to the contract’s lowest close since March 5. May soyoil rose 209 points to 66.03 cents per pound after shedding over 5% Monday and ending near a two-week low.

Soybean futures nosedived after President Trump’s threats to delay his summit with Xi Jinping deflated hopes for additional Chinese demand. U.S. and Chinese trade officials held “remarkably stable” talks in Paris on Sunday, and China “showed openness” to potential additional purchases of U.S. ag goods, including beef and non-soybean row crops, Reuters reported, adding that China was still committed to buying 25 MMT of U.S. soybeans in each of the next three years.

China concerns overshadowed more signs of robust domestic demand. The National Oilseed Processors Association’s monthly crushing update illustrated the record demand that’s underpinned soybean prices even as exports shrank. Last month’s crushing totaled 208.8 million bushels, down 5.8% from January but up 17% from February 2025. On a daily basis, NOPA members crushed a record average of 7.457 million bushels per day in February.

USDA already projects 2025-26 crushing at 2.575 billion bushels, a record for the fifth year in a row. But with crushing running about 12% above last year’s pace, that figure may be too low.

“Marketing year to date soybean crush now exceeds the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 60 million bushels, suggesting that USDA will be under pressure to raise its soybean crush estimate next month,” StoneX analyst Arlan Suderman said in a report Monday.

USDA’s weekly inspections update continued to reflect a recent upswing in China’s purchases. Soybean inspections for the week ended March 12 totaled 966,082 MT (35.5 million bushels), up 8.9% from the previous week and up 45% from the same week a year earlier. China was the top destination at 545,858 MT. However, for 2025-26 to date, shipments totaled 1.031 billion bushels, down 28% from the same period in 2024-25 and a seven-year low.

Could Brazilian quality issues open the door for U.S. soybean exports? Some soybean shipments from Brazil have failed to clear the country’s own sanitary inspections, raising concerns about potential disruptions at a crucial time for trade with China. Last week, Cargill Inc. suspended exports from Brazil to China because of the issue.

Wheat supported by dry Plains outlook

May SRW wheat rose 1.75 cents to $5.99 after dropping 16.5 cents Monday to $5.9725. Futures are down almost 43 cents, or 6.7%, from a 21-month high at $6.4175 posted March 9 but for now are holding near-term support at the 10-day SMA ($5.9650).

May HRW wheat rose 2.5 cents to $6.19 after falling 13.5 cents Monday. May spring wheat fell 1.25 cents to $6.3275 after losing 10.25 cents Monday, down from a nine-month closing high posted March 9 at $6.46.

Winter wheat futures rebounded overnight behind strength in crude oil and a dry outlook for most of the Plains through late March, which is fueling concerns over yields as the crop comes out of dormancy.

“Kansas City wheat maintains strength based on damaging cold in the Southern Plains overnight that will be replaced by searing heat in the mid-90s by the end of the week,” Suderman said.

Continued erosion in state-level USDA crop ratings further fueled worries over drought. In Kansas, 52% of the winter wheat crop was rated “good” or “excellent” at the start of this week, down from 56% a week earlier, according to the state’s Department of Agriculture. Topsoil moisture across Kansas was rated 48% “short” or “very short,” up from 38% a week earlier, and 47% “adequate.”

USDA export inspections numbers extended the recent trend of sagging U.S. wheat shipments. Wheat export inspections for the week ended March 12 totaled 343,022 MT (12.6 million bushels), down 31% from both the previous week and the same week in 2025. Mexico was the top destination at 79,566 MT.

For 2025-26 to date, wheat shipments now total 715.3 million bushels, up 19% from the same period in 2024-25 and 79% of USDA’s full-year target of 900 million bushels.

Warmer air moves into Midwest in late March

Light precipitation is expected over the upper Midwest and eastern Corn Belt this week, with trace amounts to 0.5 inch expected today through Friday, based on the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. The rest of the Midwest and most of the Plains should be dry.

After an early-week cold snap, warmer, drier conditions will move into the Plains and Midwest through late March. The latest 6-to-14-day and 8-to-14-day outlooks from the National Weather Service, which cover March 22-30, show expansion of above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation from the Southwest across the Plains and most of the Corn Belt.

Stock index futures slide overnight as oil spikes

Stock index futures eroded overnight as another spike in oil prices drove investor worries over a protracted conflict in the Middle East.

Futures based on the S&P 500 index fell almost 0.2% and Nasdaq-100 futures fell nearly 0.3%, while Dow futures were little changed. The U.S. dollar index was little changed after reaching a 10-month high Monday.