Farmfutures

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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.

What we’re watching

California’s low carbon fuel standards, along with shifting federal biofuels policies, promise emerging new demand opportunities for farmers but also higher costs and regulatory hurdles. As these markets evolve, farmers should lean into the regulatory process, Terrain analysts Bree Baatz and Matt Woolf said in our latest Ag Marketing IQ In Depth video.

Corn follows crude oil higher overnight

May corn futures rose 4 cents to $4.6725 per bushel late in overnight trading after jumping 9.25 cents Wednesday to $4.6325. December futures rose 4.25 cents to $4.94.

Corn technicals strengthened overnight as May futures pushed above Wednesday’s high and came within 0.75 cent of $4.70. A push above that level could have bulls angling for a test of the 10-month high at $4.76 posted March 9. The market has moved firmly into the top half of the past two weeks’ trading range and remains above initial support levels including the 10-day simple moving average (SMA), currently about $4.5950.

Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price rose over 9.25 cents Wednesday to almost $4.20. Wednesday’s average was 43.25 cents below May futures, narrowing from 43.5 cents a week earlier.

Corn futures followed an overnight surge in crude oil after strikes between Iran and Israel on critical energy facilities in the region heightened concerns about a more protracted conflict. Iran launched missile strikes on a Qatari site housing the world’s largest LNG export facility, one of several energy assets Tehran had pledged to target following an Israeli attack on Iran’s South Pars gas field.

May WTI crude futures rose 62 cents to $96.08 late in overnight trading. Brent crude, the international benchmark, jumped over 5% to nearly $113.

The escalating Middle East conflict and accompanying crude oil rally have again taken center stage in grain markets, overshadowing fundamentals that don’t appear to justify the recent rally in corn. The war is also throwing additional uncertainty into the outlook for spring planting. USDA’s Prospective Plantings report March 31 is expected to show a drop in corn acreage intentions, and the decline may be magnified because of war-related disruptions to global fertilizer supplies.

But corn could also further downside if speculators scale back a still-large net long corn futures stake. Prices fell early this week after President Trump said the U.S. asked to delay his planned meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing by “a month or so” due to the ongoing war with Iran. Trump was expected to travel to China at the end of March for the meeting.

Today’s USDA weekly export sales numbers likely will continue to reflect brisk demand for corn.

Analysts expect net 2025-26 U.S. corn sales for the week ended March 12 at 600,000 metric tons to 1.8 million metric tons (23.6 million to 70.9 million bushels), based on a Reuters survey. The previous week’s sales totaled 1.531 MMT, down 24% from the previous week and down 2% from the average for the previous four weeks. For the 2025-26 marketing year to date, sales commitments (including accumulated exports) now total 2.618 billion bushels, up 32% from the same period in 2024-25 and 79% of USDA’s full-year export target.

The nation’s ethanol distillers scaled back production slightly last week from near-record levels early this month.

Ethanol production averaged 1.093 million barrels per day for the week ended March 13, down almost 3% from a seven-week high at 1.126 million barrels a day the previous week and the lowest weekly average in four months, the Energy Information Administration said. Over the past four weeks, output averaged 1.107 million barrels per day, up 2% from the same period in 2025.

Weekly ethanol exports fell a second straight week, dropping 7.4% to an average of 174,000 barrels per day. Ethanol stocks expanded 3.2% for the week to 26.4 million barrels, the highest since April 2025, but were still down 0.8% from a year earlier.

Ethanol production trends continue to lag the estimated pace required to reach USDA’s full-year use estimate, 5.6 billion bushels, according to StoneX analyst Randy Mittelstaedt. “We see corn for ethanol usage falling short of the USDA's target, with our current estimate at 5.55 billion bushels, 50 million below USDA,” he said in a note Wednesday.

The Trump administration is moving to locate backup sources of fertilizers for U.S. farmers at the start of the planting season after the Iran war shut down a key source. “We’ve been all over the fertilizer problem,” White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said on CNBC Tuesday. Two countries have emerged as alternate sources.

Soybeans supported by biofuels optimism

May soybeans rose 1.5 cents to $11.6325 overnight after adding 4.75 cents Wednesday to $11.6175, up from a three-week low Tuesday. November soybeans rose 6.75 cents to $11.4825 after jumping another 10.25 cents Wednesday.

Soybean technicals appear to have stabilized after the early-week selloff broke May futures’ sharp uptrend from January lows. But futures remain under the 10- and 20-day SMAs ($11.9025 and $11.77, respectively) and are down from a 21-month intraday high at $12.3875 last Thursday. Downside levels to watch include the $11.40 area and the late-February low at $11.3650.

Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price gained about 5 cents Wednesday to $10.8675. Wednesday’s average was about 75 cents below May futures, widening from 74.75 cents a week earlier.

Soybean futures joined the rest of the grain complex in following crude oil higher overnight amid ideas that an extended climb in the oil market will keep war premium in ag commodities and support biofuels feedstocks such as soyoil.

Prices remain underpinned by expectations for greater biofuels demand. On Tuesday, prices climbed on reports that Trump invited farmers and biofuel producers to the White House on March 27 for a “Celebration of Agriculture” event, driving expectations the president will announce ramped-up biofuels blending requirements, known as Renewable Volume Obligations.

Last year, the administration proposed significantly boosting the amount of renewable fuel that must be blended into the nation’s fuel supply under the Renewable Fuel Standard, raising the total mandate to about 24.02 billion gallons in 2026 and 24.46 billion gallons in 2027, up from 22.33 billion gallons required in 2025, Reuters reported.

USDA’s export sales update today may show some improvement in soybean numbers, which slowed in recent weeks as China’s purchases faded.

Net 2025-26 U.S. soybean sales for the week ended March 12 are pegged at 350,000 MT to 800,000 MT (12.9 million to 29.4 million bushels), based on the Reuters survey. The previous week’s sales totaled 456,700 MT, down 2% from the four-week average.

For 2025-26 to date, U.S. export commitments totaled 1.341 billion bushels as of March 5, down 19% from the same period last year. USDA-confirmed China purchases for 2025-26 total 10.9 MMT (400.5 million bushels), roughly half the 21.4 MMT sold by this point in 2024-25.

Wheat supported by hot, dry Plains outlook

May SRW wheat rose 6 cents to $6.1050 after earlier touching $6.16, the contract’s highest intraday price since March 9.

May HRW wheat rose 1.5 cents to $6.2750 after soaring 19.25 cents Wednesday to $6.26 and halting a two-day losing streak. May spring wheat rose 7.75 cents to $6.45.

Winter wheat futures extended Wednesday’s gains as oil’s rally fueled buying across grains and the soy complex. Concern that dryness and upcoming heat in Plains wheat country could hamper yields is also underpinning the market.

Tuesday’s gains in wheat “seemed to have more moving parts as crude eased back late in the session while wheat held its bid throughout,” StoneX analyst Mike O’Dea said in a note. “The recent downgrades in the condition of the Southern Plains HRW crop “remains an issue with some states now well-below last year.” HRW wheat “will continue to hold underlying support until substantial relief is realized,” he added.

In Kansas, 52% of the winter wheat crop was rated “good” or “excellent” at the start of this week, down from 56% a week earlier, according to the state’s Department of Agriculture.

Today’s USDA export sales report is expected to continue to reflect eroding wheat purchases as the 2025-26 U.S. marketing year nears an end.

Net weekly U.S. wheat sales may range from 300,000 MT to 550,000 MT (11 million to 20.2 million bushels), based on the Reuters survey. The previous week’s sales reached a four-week high at 455,400 MT, up 49% from the four-week average. For 2025-26 to date, U.S. wheat sales commitments (including accumulated exports) totaled 846.6 million bushels, up almost 14% from the same period in 2024-25 and 94% of USDA’s full-year target of 900 million bushels.

Elsewhere, European association Coceral lowered its estimates for European Union wheat production by 47.8 million bushels to 5.238 billion bushels. The EU accounted for 15% of global wheat production in 2024-25.

Warmup expands across Plains, Midwest next week

The Midwest and Plains will be mostly dry the rest of the week and the beginning of next week, with only light rains possible for Ohio and the northern halves of Minnesota and Wisconsin today through Sunday, based on the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA.

Starting next week, warmer, drier conditions are expected to expand from the Southwest to cover most of the Plains and Midwest the rest of the month. The latest 6-to-14-day and 8-to-14-day outlooks from the National Weather Service both extend a warmer, drier pattern for the central U.S., with above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation seen from March 24-April 1. The 8-to-14-day outlook shows normal to above-normal rain chances for the eastern Corn Belt.

Wall Street poised for soft open as oil prices jump

Stock index futures fell overnight as surging oil prices exacerbated investor worries over inflation a day after the February Producer Price Index report came out hotter than expected.

Futures based on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 indexes fell over 0.3% and almost 0.5%, respectively, while Dow futures fell over 0.3%. The U.S. dollar index rose slightly and remains near a 10-month high posted Monday.