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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.
What we’re watching
The Trump administration claims tariff revenue is delivering big upside to American farmers, but data and farmers themselves paint a more complicated picture. A recent report from North Dakota State indicated tariff revenue and aid packages aren’t offsetting higher input costs. “Even before tariffs, input costs were already high,” Kansas farmer Nick Levendofsky said. “Tariffs add another layer of cost at a time when farmers are trying to plan months or even years ahead.”
Corn fades from two-week high
March corn futures fell 1.75 cents to $4.2875 per bushel in late overnight trading after earlier reaching $4.3150, the contract’s highest intraday price since January 12. Futures jumped 6.5 cents Friday to $4.3050 and gained 5.75 cents last week.
Corn technicals strengthened late last week after March futures on Friday closed above the 10-day simple moving average, currently $4.2350, for the first time since January 9. Prices appear to have found a near-term bottom after rebounding from a five-month low posted January 14 at $4.1725. Upside targets to watch this week include the 20-day SMA ($4.3350). Near-term support comes in at last week’s low of $4.21.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price rose about 6.75 cents Friday to just under $3.9350. Friday’s average was about 37 cents below March futures, narrowing from 37.75 cents a week earlier.
Corn futures faded from two-week highs reached early in overnight trading despite continued strength in wheat futures and the soy complex. Friday’s gains were spurred by stronger than expected export readings, and traders will continue to monitor export data this week.
Early Friday, USDA reported net U.S. corn sales totaling 4.01 million metric tons (157.9 million bushels) during the week ended January 15, more than three times the previous week’s sales and the highest weekly figure in nearly five years. USDA listed “unknown destinations” as the largest buyer at 1.242 MMT, followed by Japan at 836,700 metric tons.
Sales continue to run at a pace that would exceed USDA’s full-year export projection for a record 3.2 billion bushels. For the 2025-26 marketing year to date, sales commitments (including accumulated exports) totaled 2.207 billion bushels, up 34% from the same period in 2024-25.
The market’s sell-off following unexpectedly bearish USDA data earlier this month likely stimulated fresh business. The report “confirms that the buying that stabilized prices was at least partially the result of strong export demand that emerged on the price break – buyers saw value at those levels,” StoneX analyst Arlan Suderman said in a note. “It doesn’t mean that prices can’t go lower, but for now, end users see value at current levels.”
Strong ethanol demand has also underpinned corn prices. But efforts to expand the biofuels market suffered a setback in Congress last week after legislation to allow year-round sales of E15 gasoline failed to make it into a funding bill. Instead, Republican U.S. lawmakers plan to create a task force to study potential year-round sales of higher-ethanol E15 gasoline blends in the U.S.
Year-round sales of E15 gasoline, which has higher ethanol content than the E10 widely available, could boost corn demand and help whittle down burdensome supplies in the wake of last year’s record harvest, Total Farm Marketing’s Naomi Blohm says.
Rally prospects in corn remain limited by bearish USDA numbers reported earlier this month that signal heavy supplies will persist through much of 2026. USDA’s final estimate for the 2025 corn crop hit a record 17.02 billion bushels, and stockpiles at the end of the current marketing year are expected to swell to a seven-year high at 2.23 billion bushels.
Soybeans climb to four-week high
March soybeans rose 1.25 cents to $10.69 overnight after earlier touching $10.7625, the contract’s highest intraday price since December 29. Futures gained 14.75 cents last week. New-crop November futures rose 1.75 cents to $10.8375, after hitting a four-week high at $10.8875.
Soybeans technicals continue to strengthen with March futures pushing above the 200-day SMA (currently $10.6850) overnight and nearing the 100-day SMA ($10.8225). Futures have rebounded almost 32 cents from a three-month intraday low of $10.3775 posted January 13 and could be poised for further strength this week if speculators resume buying, with funds having slashed a net-long position to its smallest since October.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price gained about 3.75 cents Friday to $9.9775. Friday’s average was about 70 cents below March futures, narrowing from just under 70.5 cents a week earlier.
March soybean meal rose 30 cents to $299.60 per ton after surging another $3.70 Friday to close at a two-week high. March soyoil rose 2 points to 54.01 cents per pound after climbing 2.6% last week and ending Friday near a five-month high.
Last week’s strength in soybeans reflected strengthening export demand and hopes for ramped-up federal biofuels mandates. USDA’s weekly export sales update Friday confirmed additional China business stemming from last October’s trade truce between Washington and Beijing.
Net U.S. soybean sales during the week ended January 15 totaled 2.446 MMT (89.9 million bushels), up 92% from the average for the previous four weeks and a marketing-year high. Sales came in at the high end of expectations and were again led by China at 1.304 MMT, including 66,000 MT switched from unknown destinations.
Based on Friday’s report, USDA-confirmed China purchases for 2025-26 now total about 9.42 MMT (346 million bushels), though the country is believed to have already met a 12-MMT target touted by the White House when factoring in unreported sales. That would still leave China’s purchase commitments down sharply from roughly 20 MMT at this point in 2024-25.
Export data continues to reflect damage from last year’s trade dispute, which prompted China to stop buying U.S. beans for about six months and load up on Brazilian supplies instead. U.S. export commitments for 2025-26 to date (including accumulated exports) now total 1.214 billion bushels, down 22% from the same period last year.
Optimism over biofuels demand lifted the soy complex last week. Reports circulated that the Trump administration plans to finalize biofuels blending quotas by March. The administration is weighing a proposed mandated biodiesel blending range of 5.2 billion to 5.6 billion gallons in 2026, a sharp increase over 3.35 billion gallons for 2025.
Elsewhere, weather in Brazil remains largely favorable for crop development and harvest is accelerating. Consultant AgRural raised its 2025-26 Brazilian soybean production estimate by 0.3% to 181 MMT and said the crop was 5% harvested as of late last week. By comparison, USDA forecasts Brazil’s crop at a record 178 MMT.
Wheat rises to six-week highs on storm concern
March SRW wheat rose 1.75 cents to $5.3125 after earlier hitting $5.3325, the contract’s highest intraday price since December 12. Futures added 11.5 cents last week to record a third straight weekly gain.
Wheat technicals strengthened last week with March SRW futures posting two consecutive closes above the 10- and 20-day SMAs ($5.1550 and $5.1425, respectively), as well as the market’s first close above the 50-day SMA (just under $5.26) since December 4. Initial support is seen at the mid-January intraday low at $5.07 and the contract low at $5.0150.
March HRW wheat rose 0.25 cent to $5.41 after rallying 15 cents Friday to $5.4075, the highest close since November 18. March spring wheat rose 1.75 cents to $5.7675 after adding 1.25 cents Friday to $5.75, near a four-week high.
Winter wheat futures extended last week’s gains on concern a severe storm that hit the central and southeastern U.S. over the weekend may have caused crop damage. The storm brought variable snow and ice and sent temperatures plunging below freezing, likely resulting in some winterkill in wheat fields.
“Any wheat not covered with at least 4 inches of snow will be susceptible to damage from the extreme cold,” Suderman said.
Signs of improving export demand also supported wheat futures. On Friday, USDA reported net U.S. wheat sales for the week ended January 15 at 618,100 MT (22.7 million bushels), nearly quadruple the previous week’s sales and a nine-week high. Sales were expected to range from 150,000 MT to 450,000 MT. “Unknown destinations” was cited as the top buyer at 130,600 MT, followed by Mexico at 115,900 MT.
For 2025-26 to date, U.S. wheat sales commitments (including accumulated exports) totaled 767.5 million bushels, up 18% from the same period in 2024-25 and 85% of USDA’s full-year target of 900 million bushels.
Stock index futures steady-lower, gold tops $5,000
Stock index futures took pressure overnight amid concern over President Trump’s tariff threats against Canada and the risk of a partial U.S. government shutdown.
Futures based on the S&P 500 index were little changed after dropping as much as 1%, while Nasdaq-100 futures were down about 0.1%. Dow futures were little changed. The U.S. dollar index was down almost 0.5% after earlier sinking to its lowest level in over four months.
March WTI crude oil futures gained 9 cents to $61.16 per barrel after reaching a one-month high after a severe winter storm disrupted U.S. production. Gold futures jumped over 2% after earlier touching a record at $5,002 per ounce as escalating geopolitical concerns fueled safe-haven buying.
What else I’m reading at www.FarmFutures.com this morning:
- With the Trump Administration pivoting away from clean energy incentives, Jeff Risley, executive director of Renewable Energy Farmers of America, still expects energy development on rural land to find its equilibrium due to a “greatly increasing” demand for electricity. Farm Progress farm equipment editor Andy Castillo took a closer look.