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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.
What we’re watching
As grain farmers struggle and livestock producers thrive, American agriculture faces a widening chasm between winning and losing. Finding a way forward isn’t just about the numbers on your balance sheet, Farm Futures contributing writer David Kohl says. It's about maintaining perspective, protecting what you've built, and investing in your most valuable asset: yourself. Read David’s perspective.
Corn lifted by USDA yield skepticism
December corn rose 0.25 cent to $4.2975 per bushel late in overnight trading after gaining 6.25 cents Tuesday to $4.2950, ending just 0.5 cent below a 10-week closing high posted last Friday. Early Tuesday, December futures touched $4.3125, the contract’s highest intraday price since July 3.
Tuesday’s price strength underscored a bullish near-term technical posture as December futures extended a five-week uptrend drawn from the contract low at $3.92 posted August 12. Futures have rallied about 37 cents, or over 9%, from that low, with fresh speculative buying fueling recent gains. December futures have settled above the 100-day simple moving average, currently about $4.2675, in two of the past three days.
A push above Tuesday’s high at $4.3125 could embolden bulls to target the $4.35 area and the July intraday high at $4.4225. Downside levels to watch include the 10-day SMA ($4.2275) and last week’s intraday low at $4.15.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price rose about 6.25 cents Tuesday to $3.8525.
The corn market continues to shrug off bearish aspects of last week’s USDA Crop Production and Supply and Demand amid widespread beliefs that persistent late-summer dryness pinched yield potential and will lead to downward revisions in the government’s production numbers. Buying has been driven in part by reports of some disappointing early-harvest results.
“Yield cynicism tied to the U.S. crop drew in more speculative buying despite (USDA good-to-excellent) ratings outperforming analyst expectations,” StoneX analyst Bevan Everett said in a note Tuesday. “The anecdotal field reports mention lighter test weights and disease issues, causing disappointment more than satisfaction from the early core Corn Belt harvest.”
Last Friday, USDA said it lowered its average U.S. yield estimate by 2.1 bushels per acre to 186.7 bpa but also hiked its harvest forecast to a record 16.814 billion bushels due to a sharp increase in planted acreage. Corn’s recent strength strongly reflects beliefs USDA will further cut its yield forecast in October.
There appeared to be sufficient evidence to justify a modest reduction in USDA's official September yield estimates, “but the bottom line is that we simply won't know this year's yields until we see the impact of late-summer weather on seed size,” StoneX Chief Commodities Economist Arlan Suderman said Tuesday.
“Now it's time for the combine to provide the ultimate answer to the question on the size of this year's crops,” Suderman added. “The bias is that (yields) will continue to get smaller, based on the historical pattern for big crops with these weather conditions, but the question about how much smaller ultimately comes down to seed size, as indicated by the harvest results.”
The Energy Information Administration will report weekly ethanol production and stocks later this morning. Ethanol distillers recently boosted production as cheap corn continued to fuel strong margins. A week ago, EIA said nationwide ethanol production averaged 1.105 million barrels a day during the week ended September 5, up 3.3% from the previous week and the highest weekly average in almost three months.
Grain futures were whipsawed wildly in the immediate aftermath of USDA’s reports last Friday, a reflection of both confused algorithms and confused humans. One thing’s for sure: the story of the 2025 U.S. harvest is not close to being fully written, while broader uncertainty over the economy lingers. Read Bryce Knorr’s analysis.
Trade, biofuels hopes underpin soybeans
November soybeans fell 2 cents to $10.4775 late overnight after jumping 7 cents Tuesday to $10.4975, the contract’s highest settlement since August 29. Futures have rallied about 26 cents since dropping to a low for the month so far at $10.2150 on September 4.
Soybeans had a modest corrective pullback overnight but retain a neutral-friendly near-term technical outlook assuming November futures can hold above this week’s lows as well as the 20-day SMA ($10.42). A close above Tuesday’s high ($10.5250) could encourage further buying. Longer-term, November futures may be forming a “bull flag” on the daily bar chart drawn from the four-month low of $9.8125 reached in early August.
Near-term support includes the 10- and 20-day SMAs ($10.42 and $10.37). Futures remain down from a two-month intraday high at $10.6275 August 22.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price rose about 6.25 cents Tuesday to $9.7250.
December soybean meal rose 60 cents to $286.70 per ton. December soyoil fell 58 points to 52.62 cents per pound after surging 1.8% Tuesday to 53.20 cents, the contract’s fifth consecutive weekly gain and its highest close since August 26.
Soybean futures gained spillover strength Tuesday as soyoil rallied amid optimism over the potential for higher U.S. biofuels mandates, as well as prospects for positive developments from trade discussions between the U.S. and China. Any signs of progress could fuel hopes the two sides could strike a deal that includes large purchases of soybeans and other ag products.
However, China’s continued avoidance of U.S. soybeans remains a concern, and bearish elements of last week’s USDA data may also limit rallies. USDA lowered its average U.S. soybean yield estimate to 53.5 bpa from 53.6 bpa, a smaller cut than was expected, and hiked production to 4.301 billion bushels. Projected exports for 2025-26 were reduced 1.2% to 1.685 billion bushels.
Earlier this week, export demand for U.S. soybeans displayed some signs of improvement following a slow start to the 2025-26 marketing year. For 2025-26 to date, soybean shipments now total 39.2 million bushels, up 43% from the same period in 2024-25 and 2.3% of USDA’s full-year target of 1.685 billion bushels (last week, USDA said it lowered its export forecast by 20 million bushels).
Wheat climbs near five-week high
December SRW wheat futures fell 0.75 cent to $5.3325 late overnight after earlier touching $5.3575, the contract’s highest intraday price since August 11. On Tuesday, December futures rose 9 cents to $5.34, the contract’s fourth straight daily advance and its highest close since August 29.
SRW futures have rebounded about 21 cents from a contract low at $5.12 reached last Thursday. Downside levels to watch include $5.04, a five-year low for a most-active SRW futures posted August 6.
December HRW futures fell 1 cent to $5.2250 after jumping 9.5 cents Tuesday to $5.2350, the contract’s highest close since August 21. December spring wheat fell 0.5 cent to $5.76 after ending near a one-week high on Tuesday.
Wheat futures remain near five-year lows amid ample domestic and global supplies. Additionally, the soon-to-be-finished spring wheat harvest is pushing fresh supplies into the pipeline, and USDA’s latest global Supply and Demand update leaned bearish.
USDA’s weekly update showed winter wheat seeding falling behind the historical pace, while the spring wheat harvest was nearing completion. Winter wheat plantings jumped to 11% as of Sunday from 5% a week earlier but was below the five-year average of 13%.
Signs of stronger demand could help boost wheat prices. Flour millers in Asia have ramped up imports of U.S. wheat in recent weeks, driven by competitive prices from American suppliers and delays in shipments from the Black Sea, Reuters reported, citing grain traders at an international conference.
Indonesian importers have finalized deals for around 500,000 metric tons, while buyers in Bangladesh secured about 250,000 MT and millers in Sri Lanka acquired around 100,000 MT, two grain traders said on the sidelines of the event in Jakarta.
“Millers are taking both U.S. soft white wheat and hard red winter wheat varieties,” a trader told Reuters. “There were some weather issues which delayed cargoes from the Black Sea region and U.S. prices have been pretty competitive.”
Earlier this week, USDA said weekly wheat export inspections surged to 755,073 MT (27.7 million bushels), up 76% from a week earlier and up 28% from the same week a year earlier. For 2025-26 to date, wheat shipments now total 288.6 million bushels, 12% above the same period in 2024-25 and 32% of USDA’s full-year export forecast of 900 million bushels.
Rains for Dakotas, western Corn Belt
Rains will sweep across much of the Central and Northern Plains and western Corn Belt the rest of the week, with heaviest amounts ranging from 0.75 inch to over 2 inches possible for South Dakota, based on NOAA’s latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map. Southern Minnesota and western Iowa may receive 0.5 inch to 1.25 inches. The eastern Corn Belt will remain mostly day.
The rest of the month likely will bring summer-like heat for the Midwest and Plains, with both the National Weather Service’s 6-to-10-day and 8-to-14-day outlooks continuing to call for above-normal temperatures for much of the country. The 6-to-10 day, which covers September 22-26, has turned drier for the western Corn Belt, while the eastern Belt holds near-normal precipitation prospects.
Stocks flat as market awaits Fed’s decision
Stock index futures were little changed overnight as investors waited for the conclusion of a two-day meeting of the Federal Reserve’s policy-setting arm, the Federal Open Market Committee. The FOMC is widely expected to lower its benchmark funds rate by a quarter-point, which would be the first cut since December.
A post-meeting press conference by Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be closely scrutinized for clues to the central bank’s views on inflation and the longer-term direction of rates.
Futures based on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq-100 indexes were both down less than 0.1%, while futures based on the Dow industrials were up less than 0.1%. The U.S. dollar index was up over 0.1% but remained near a 2-1/2-month low reached Tuesday.
October WTI crude oil futures fell 54 cents to $63.98 per barrel. Gold futures dropped 0.7% to around $3,669 in a pullback from Tuesday’s record above $3,700 per ounce.
What else I’m reading at www.FarmFutures.com this morning:
- Another story about Brazil and beans, but perhaps not the type you’re thinking of. Arabica coffee rallies to highest level since February on concerns over tight supplies and trade tensions, according to Bloomberg.