Farmfutures

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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.

What we’re watching

Soybeans are down from 17-month highs but still have retained about half of a $1.60 rally from October lows, so there’s still potentially favorable pricing opportunities as 2026 nears. Minnesota ag economist Ed Usset urges farmers to act strategically, spread out sales and prepare to pounce when the time is right. And don’t rule out $5 corn next year, Usset said in our latest Ag Marketing IQ In Depth interview with Farm Futures Executive Editor Pam Caraway.

Corn extends sideways pre-holiday trade

March corn futures rose 2.75 cents to $4.47 late in overnight trading after slipping 3.75 cents Wednesday to $4.4425, down from a one-week high close the prior day.

Corn extended sideways, back-and-forth price action overnight as corrective buying emerged, briefly pushing March futures back above the 200-day simple moving average around $4.47, slightly above the mid-point of the past month’s range. Sideways trade may continue unless the market can generate a decisive move above stiff resistance slightly north of $4.50. Futures retain firm near-term support at last week’s low around $4.42 and the 50-day SMAs at $4.4150.

Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price fell over 3.5 cents Tuesday to $3.99. Wednesday’s cash average was about 45.25 cents below March futures, narrowing from 55.25 cents a month earlier.

The corn market finds itself in a stalemate of sorts between bullish forces including firm cash markets and strong export demand and bearish dynamics stemming from a burdensome supply outlook following this fall’s massive harvest. Spillover weakness from soybeans has also helped keep corn upside in check.

The near-term result could see corn prices extend sideways trade as volume thins and the year-end holidays near, though concerns over potential disruptions to Black Sea shipping if the Russia-Ukraine conflict escalates may keep the market on edge.

USDA’s Supply and Demand update earlier this week offered some fodder for bulls as estimated 2025-26 corn exports were revised higher for the fourth consecutive month, to record 3.2 billion bushels. The agency also lowered outlook for U.S. corn supplies at the close of 2025-26 by a 125 million bushels, to 2.029 billion bushels (still a seven-year high) and slashed its global ending corn stocks forecast to 279.2 million metric tons (11 billion bushels), the lowest since 2013-14.

“Corn export demand remains robust, but we still have plenty of corn to fill that demand, especially if feed demand is being overstated, as the industry believes that it is,” StoneX analyst Arlan Suderman said in a report Wednesday. “The question now is, will the major funds begin to see incentives to own commodities as a hedge against higher inflation risks in 2026?”

The nation’s ethanol distillers continue to run at a near-record pace. U.S. ethanol production averaged 1.105 million barrels a day during the week ended December 5, down 1.9% from a record the previous week and the first drop in four weeks, the Energy Information Administration reported Wednesday. Production over the past four weeks averaged 1.109 million barrels a day, up 1.3% from the same period a year earlier.

Ethanol stocks were unchanged at 22.5 million barrels, down 0.4% from a year earlier.

Despite the stronger production pace, the ethanol industry’s corn use so far in the 2025-26 marketing year doesn’t appear high enough to meet USDA’s full-year corn usage target of 5.6 billion bushels, according to StoneX analyst Randy Mittelstaedt.

The Trump administration’s $12 billion aid package may bring temporary relief for U.S. producers but is unlikely to kickstart a lasting recovery for the American farm economy, many farmers say. “This is kind of a Band-Aid — we need more markets more than we need aid,” Missouri farmer Marty Richardson told Bloomberg. “We’re behind the eight ball.”

Soybeans find corrective bounce overnight

January soybeans rose 3.25 cents to $10.9450 late overnight after climbing 4 cents Wednesday to $10.9125, the contract’s first gain in four days. Prices bounced back after dropping to a six-week intraday low at $10.8150.

Soybean technicals appear to be stabilizing as corrective buying continued overnight after January futures held support around the $10.80 area and climbed back above the 50-day SMA ($10.9225). But charts retain damage from the steep selloff from a 17-month high near $11.70 and could face further pressure if Wednesday’s lows fail to hold.

Bears are likely eyeing the $10.70 area, which marks the top of a gap left in the daily bar chart from late October. Other downside levels to watch include the 100-day SMA (about $10.6775). Futures have tumbled about 76 cents, or 6.5%, the past three weeks.

Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price rose about 4.25 cents Wednesday to $10.2075. Wednesday’s average was roughly 70.5 cents below January futures, narrowing from just above 74.25 cents a month earlier.

January soybean meal rose $1.40 to $302.60 per ton after slipping 10 cents Wednesday to $301.20, the contract’s ninth consecutive daily decline and its lowest close since October 27. January soybean oil fell 23 points to 50.86 cents per pound after earlier hitting a two-week low.

Soybean futures have found some support as China continues to step up purchases of U.S. beans in the wake of a trade truce struck with the U.S. in late October. Early Wednesday, USDA reported private exporter soybean sales totaling 136,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) for delivery to China during 2025-26. USDA also reported a combined 331,000 MT in soybean sales to “unknown destinations,” also for 2025-26 delivery.

Wednesday’s announcement brought recent confirmed Chinese purchases to a total of about 2.98 MMT (109.3 million bushels). That’s about one-fourth of the 12 MMT the White House initially said China would purchase by the end of 2025. Earlier this week, Trump officials said there was a “discrepancy” in the previously-announced the time frame and that they now expect the 12-MMT target to be reached by the end of February.

USDA’s Supply and Demand report Tuesday was a mixed bag for the soybean market, as price-supportive U.S. figures were neutralized by bearish global numbers.

Estimated U.S. soybean stocks at the end of 2025-26 were unchanged at a three-year low of 290 million bushels, contrary to expectations for an increase of about 16 million bushels. However, USDA hiked its estimates for 2026 global soybean production and ending stocks, citing stronger crop prospects in India and Russia. Brazil’s soybean crop was kept unchanged at a record 175 million metric tons (6.43 billion bushels).

Elsewhere, key corn and soybean growing areas in South America have benefitted from recent rains and more precipitation is in the near-term forecast, bolstering expectations for record production. “Brazil’s weather forecast looks favorable over the next couple of weeks, which should help alleviate dryness concerns and support development of what is expected to be a record soybean crop this spring,” said Grain Market Insider.

CoBank has released its 2026 “year ahead” report, which has a lot of intel for farmers to consider. But one point that stood out was that oversupply in the global grain and oilseed markets will likely keep prices low next year. Soybeans could be the better option for planting in 2026 given current price ratios and lower input costs compared to corn.

Wheat burdened by global supplies

March SRW wheat rose 2.4 cents to $5.32 after sinking 5 cents Wednesday to $5.2950, the contract’s fourth consecutive daily drop and its lowest close since October 24.

Wheat technicals deteriorated further Wednesday after March SRW futures pushed under $5.30, near the lower end of the trading range that had persisted since late November. Futures have extended a 6% downtrend from a three-month intraday high at $5.68 on November 5 and this week’s chart breakdown may have bears aim for the lower-$5.20s that traded during October.

March HRW futures rose 2.5 cents to $5.2575 after dropping 3.75 cents Wednesday to $5.2325, the third decline in the past four days and a two-week closing low. March spring wheat rose 3 cents to $5.7825 after easing 1 cent Wednesday.

Wheat futures followed corn and soybeans higher overnight amid corrective buying in the wake of losses earlier this week, with Russia-Ukraine concerns lurking in the background but bearish supply fundamentals limiting price upside. Most of the U.S. winter wheat crop has moved into winter dormancy and a brief cold snap this weekend is not viewed as a concern.

Tuesday’s USDA report included few changes to the domestic balance sheet and further underscore the heavy global supply outlook. USDA held its outlook for 2025-26 U.S. ending stocks unchanged at 901 million bushels, a six-year high. Exports were kept unchanged at 900 million bushels, a five-year high.

Expected global ending wheat stocks rose to 274.9 MMT, up 5.7% from 2024-25 and a four-year high. Production was raised to 837.8 MMT, up 4.6% from last year and a record for the sixth year in a row. Crops in Canada, Russia, Australia and Argentina were revised higher.

Midwest warm-up starting next week

The weekend cold snap that will send temperatures in much of the Midwest plunging into the single-digits should ease early next week as conditions turner somewhat warmer and drier as Christmas nears.

Both National Weather Service’s latest 6-to-10-day and 8-to-14-day outlooks, which cover December 16-24, indicate warmer air will expand out of the Southwest into the Plains and Midwest, lifting temperatures to near- or above-normal levels. Both outlooks call for above-normal precipitation prospects for the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains and normal levels elsewhere.

Tech worries burden Wall Street after Fed cut

Stock index futures sank overnight, led by weakness in technology after disappointing quarterly results from tech bellwether Oracle fueled concern over a potential AI bubble. Wall Street is poised for a soft open a day after the S&P 500 index jumped near a record close following the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut its benchmark funds rate for the third time in the past four months.

Following a two-day meeting, the Fed’s policy-setting arm said it lowered its funds rate target range by a quarter of percentage point, to 3.5% to 3.75%, the lowest since September 2022. However, the Fed’s so-called “dot plot” forecast indicated the central bank expects just one rate cut in 2026 and one in 2027, underscoring disagreement over the path of monetary policy.

Futures based on the S&P 500 index fell over 0.3% and Nasdaq-100 futures dropped 0.6%, though Dow futures were steady. The U.S. dollar index was down 0.3% after earlier touching its weakest level in over seven weeks.

January WTI crude oil futures fell 67 cents to $57.59 per barrel amid signs of optimism in peace talks over the Russia-Ukraine war. Gold futures rose over 0.4% to about $4,244 per ounce.

What else I’m reading at www.FarmFutures.com this morning: