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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.

What we’re watching

“You take it on faith, you take it to the heart,” the late, great Tom Petty famously sang. So it goes for American farmers, who’ve had an already difficult year complicated further by a record government shutdown that mostly shut off USDA data for the past two months. That changes today, with USDA set to report two biggies: Crop Production and Supply and Demand. Check in on what kind of numbers analysts expect.

Corn yield estimate expected to drop

December corn rose 1 cent to $4.4250 per bushel late overnight after climbing 6.25 cents Thursday to $4.4150, the contract’s fourth straight daily advance and its highest close since June 18. The contract is up from $4.2725 at the end of last week and tracking for a fourth weekly advance in the past five weeks.

Corn technicals strengthened considerably with this week’s upside breakout, which lifted December futures to the contract’s first close above the 200-day simple moving average, currently $4.3550, since early June. Bulls are likely eyeing upside targets including $4.45 and $4.50, near last June’s high, as well as the May high at $4.5650.

Near-term support comes in at the 10- and 20-day SMAs ($4.3375 and $4.3050, respectively).

Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price rose about 6.5 cents Thursday to $4.0250, the highest since July. Thursday’s cash average was about 39 cents below December futures, narrowing from slightly less than 40.25 cents a week earlier.

Corn futures surged Thursday as spillover strength from rallying soybeans pushed charts above some key technical levels, triggering accelerated fund buying. Funds were reportedly net buyers of about 15,000 corn futures contracts Thursday. The market is also expecting USDA to drop production and yield estimates in today’s Crop Production report.

Also at 11 a.m. CT today, USDA is expected to release the entire backlog of large, daily so-called flash sales reports that went unpublished during the government shutdown. On Thursday, USDA released its weekly export sales report for the week ending September 25. Reports for subsequent weeks will be released twice a week until the government is caught up in early January, USDA said in a statement.

The following are trade expectations for several closely-followed USDA figures, based on a Reuters survey of analysts:

U.S. corn production: 16.557 billion bushels (vs. USDA’s September estimate of 16.814 billion bushels)
U.S. corn average yield: 184.0 bushels per acre (vs 186.7 bpa in August)
U.S. corn ending stocks, 2025-26: 2.136 billion bushels (vs 2.11 billion bushels)
World corn ending stocks, 2025-26: 282.75 MMT (vs. 281.4 MMT)

Corn production that ultimately comes in near the average estimate would be up 1.69 billion bushels, or 11%, from 14.867 billion bushels in 2024. The average yield would be up 2.6% from 179.3 bpa in 2024.

Many analysts also expect USDA to boost its 2025-26 corn export forecast because of strong demand from Mexico and other top foreign buyers. Since the start of the 2025-26 marketing year September 1, corn shipments have surged 66% over the same period in 2024-25, based on USDA export inspections. USDA already projects exports at a record 2.975 billion bushels.

U.S. ethanol producers sharply pulled back production last week from record levels reached at the end of October.

On Wednesday, the Energy Information Administration said U.S. ethanol production averaged 1.123 million barrels a day during the week ended November 7, down 4.3% from a record 1.123 million barrels a day the previous week. During the past four weeks, production averaged 1.1 million barrels a day, up 0.5% from the same period in 2024.

Nationwide ethanol stocks fell 1.9% last week to 22.2 million barrels but were still up 0.2% from a year earlier.

Despite recent record production, ethanol corn use is running about 45 million bushels below the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA’s full-year target of 6.1 billion bushels, according to StoneX. While it’s uncertain whether USDA will adjust its 2025-26 corn for ethanol usage estimate in today’s report, “it is clear ethanol production through the first 10 weeks of the new marketing year is falling short” of USDA’s prior projection, StoneX analayst Randy Mittelstaedt said in a report.

Elsewhere, Brazil’s National Supply Company, known as CONAB, estimated the country’s 2026 corn crop at 138.84 MMT (5.47 billion bushels), up from 138.28 MMT in October. The increase came despite a projection for a 2.5% year-over-year decline in the second corn crop to 110.5 MMT. Exports are expected to jump 16% to 46.5 MMT.

Fertilizer expenses now consume nearly a quarter of corn revenue budgets. To maximize yield while preserving profit, economist David Widmar recommends farmers use precision applications and control fixed costs. Also, pay attention to fixed costs – that’s “the bucket that producers have a lot of control over,” Widmar says in an Ag Marketing IQ In Depth video.

Soybeans at highest levels since June 2024

January soybeans rose 4.5 cents to $11.5150 late overnight after earlier touching $11.5225, the highest intraday price for a most-active contract since June 2024. Futures are up from $11.17 at the end of last week and on track for a fifth consecutive weekly advance.

Soybeans extended this week’s upside breakout overnight as January futures' move above last week’s high at $11.37 fueled further technical momentum. There appear to be few significant resistance levels in the way of a potential move to $12, with June 2024 highs around $11.60 looming as one area to watch, along with the bottom of a daily chart gap just under $11.80.

Near-term support comes in at the 10-day SMA ($11.3025), which the January contract has not settled below since October 16.

Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price surged about 12.75 cents Thursday to $10.7275, the highest since July 2024. Thursday’s average was about 74.25 cents below January futures, narrowing slightly from 74.5 cents a week earlier.

December soybean meal rose 20 cents to $328.60 per ton after rallying over 2% Thursday to $328.40, a nine-month closing high. December soyoil rose 29 points to 50.54 cents per pound after slipping 37 points Thursday.

Increasingly bullish technicals continue to boost soybean futures, fueling speculator buying that’s been accelerating since late October. Funds were reportedly net buyers of about 11,000 soybean futures contracts on Thursday. January futures have rallied over 90 cents, or 8.6%, the past three weeks.

Soybeans have been supported by expectations today’s USDA reports will include downward revisions to the U.S. crop. The following are trade expectations for several key soybean numbers in Friday’s USDA reports, based on the Reuters survey:

U.S. soybean production: 4.266 billion bushels (vs. USDA’s September estimate of 4.301 billion bushels)
U.S. soybean average yield: 53.1 bushels per acre (vs 53.5 bpa)
U.S. soybean ending stocks, 2025-26: 304 million bushels (vs 300 million bushels)
World soybean ending stocks, 2025-26: 124.21 MMT (vs 123.99 MMT)

Soybean production that ends up near the average estimate would be down about 100 million bushels, or 2.3%, from last year’s 4.366-billion-bushel harvest. The estimated yield would be up from 50.7 bpa in 2024 and surpass the existing record of 51.9 bpa, set in 2016.

USDA’s 2025-26 soybean export forecast will be another key number to watch following last month’s trade truce, which the White House has said will result in large Chinese purchases of U.S. beans, including 12 MMT (441 million bushels) by the end of this year.

In September, USDA estimated full-year exports at 1.685 billion bushels, down 10% from 2024-25 and a six-year low. Despite reports of recent Chinese purchases, USDA’s weekly export inspections report Monday did not mention China. For 2025-26 to date, soybean shipments are down 42% from the same period in 2024-25, based on USDA export inspections.

The U.S.-China trade truce in late October contributed to the recent rally in soybean prices. But despite tariff reductions and lifted bans on American exporters, Chinese buying activity appears to have dried up following a brief flurry of orders.

“So far, China has only made two small purchases of soybeans from the U.S., which are starting to feel performative,” Grain Market Insider said in a report. “There are concerns that China has purchased the majority of their needs at this point.”

Elsewhere, Brazil’s CONAB on Thursday lowered its estimate for the country’s 2026 soybean crop to a still-record 177.6 MMT (6.53 billion bushels) from 177.67 MMT last month, citing smaller planted acreage. Exports were estimated at 112.1 MMT, up 5.1% from last year.

Wheat hits highest level in over a week

December SRW wheat futures rose 8.25 cents to $5.44 late overnight, the contract’s highest intraday price since November 6. The contract is up from $5.2775 at the end of last week and poised for its fourth weekly advance in the past five weeks.

Wheat technicals stabilized and firmed somewhat this week, with December SRW futures poised to settle above the 100-day SMA (currently $5.33) for the fifth day in a row. Overnight, futures topped the 10-day SMA ($5.3975), a level the market hasn’t closed above in over a week. Further gains could have bulls targeting the $5.50 area. Near-term support includes this week’s low at $5.2750 and the 20-day SMA ($5.29).

December HRW futures rose 6 cents to $5.3175 after adding 0.25 cent Thursday, up from $5.1925 at the end of last week. December spring wheat rose 1.75 cents to $5.7150 after ending unchanged Thursday and halting a five-day winning streak that sent the contract to a seven-week high.

Wheat futures rose overnight as spillover strength in corn and soybeans helped propel a breakout above the past week’s range. Funds have been prominent buyers this week, snapping up a net of about 10,000 SRW futures contracts the previous four days.

Price upside likely will be limited by bearish supply fundamentals following the biggest U.S. harvest in nine years. USDA numbers today could add to the wheat market’s bearish tone. The following are trade expectations for several closely-followed wheat figures in Friday’s USDA reports:

U.S. wheat ending stocks, 2025-26: 867 million bushels (vs. USDA’s September estimate at 844 million bushels)
World wheat ending stocks, 2025-26: 266.13 million metric tons (vs 264.06 MMT in August)

Traders will also watch for any changes to USDA’s wheat export forecast, which in September were pegged at 900 million bushels, up 9% from 2024-25 and a five-year high. For 2025-26 to date, wheat shipments were running over 19% above the same period in 2024-25.

Dry Midwest pattern extends next week

This week’s dry pattern across the Midwest likely will continue into early next week, with only trace amounts of precipitation possible for the Dakotas and Ohio and none expected elsewhere, based on NOAA’s 72-hour map.

Above-normal temperatures, along with greater precipitation potential, remain likely for the central U.S. up to Thanksgiving, based on the National Weather Service’s 6-to-10-day and 8-to-14-day outlooks. The latest outlooks, which cover November 19-27, call for above-normal precipitation prospects expanding from the Central and Southern Plains into the Midwest.

In Brazil, little precipitation is expected the next five days for growing regions in the northeast and east but scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop starting around the middle of next week, according to World Weather. In southern Brazil, soil moisture and crop conditions “are rated well and no serious change is expected, despite less frequent and less significant rain later this month and in early December,” the forecaster said.

Stock index futures extend slide on tech weakness

Stock index futures sank further overnight, signaling further losses for Wall Street amid a tech-led selloff that sent major averages down sharply Thursday. Stocks are also under pressure from lowered expectations for additional Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.

Futures based on the S&P 500 index fell 0.9%, while Nasdaq-100 futures tumbled nearly 1.4% and Dow futures slipped 0.5%. The U.S. dollar index rose about 0.1% in a modest rebound from Thursday’s drop to a two-week low.

December WTI crude oil futures rose over 1.5% to $59.66 per barrel in the wake of reports the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk halted oil exports following a Ukrainian drone attack that hit an oil depot in the major Russian energy hub. Gold futures fell 1.7% to about $4,122 per ounce.

What else I’m reading at www.FarmFutures.com this morning: