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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.
What we’re watching
With global competition intensifying and the world shifting toward regional economic blocs, leaning into competitive strengths of partnerships with Mexico and Canada – or a “North America Strong” philosophy – is the path to improved profitability for U.S. farmers, ag economist David Kohl says. In our latest Ag Marketing IQ In Depth video, Kohl offers a “SWOT” analysis of U.S. ag.
Corn rebounds from five-month low
March corn futures rose 4.25 cents to $4.24 per bushel in late overnight trading after sinking another 1.75 cents Tuesday to $4.1975, the contract’s lowest closing price since August 14.
Futures have still tumbled about 22 cents so far this week.
Futures generated some modest corrective buying overnight following the steep USDA-driven sell-off earlier this week and may be settling into a consolidation phase as traders assess the market’s next potential move.
For March futures, holding the five-month intraday low at $4.1725 posted Tuesday will be key to establishing a near-term bottom. But the market’s technical posture remains severely weakened, which leaves the market open to further downside toward the $4 level. Downside levels to watch include $4.15 and the contract low at $4.10.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price fell 1.75 cents Tuesday to just under $3.8150. Tuesday’s average was 38.25 to 38.5 cents below March futures, narrowing from about 44 cents at the end of 2025.
Speculators sold heavily in the wake of Monday’s USDA releases but partially reversed those sales Tuesday. Funds bought 10,000 corn futures contracts Tuesday after selling 52,000 contracts Monday, based on StoneX estimates.
Corn futures are seeing some corrective short covering support with help from strength in broader commodity markets, including energy and metals. This week’s price slump may also be catalyzing fresh buying interest among major importers such as South Korea.
The market continues to process Monday’s bearish USDA shocker, which is forcing a deeper recalibration of longer-term supply and price implications. In Monday’s reports, USDA unexpectedly raised its final 2025 average U.S. yield by 0.5 bushels per acre to a record 186.5 bushels per acre, and boosted the estimated havest to a record 17.021 billion bushels, up 14% from 2024.
“The bottom line is that USDA provided one of the most bearish corn surprises for a January report on record yesterday that reset market expectations going forward,” StoneX analyst Arlan Suderman said in a note. “The market now must rediscover its range of value for corn, which will take some time. Whether we agree or not with USDA on crop size, USDA is the final authority that the market will trade.”
Monday’s USDA reports were just plain “ugly” for corn farmers, as one advisor put it, signaling heavy supplies will likely weigh on the market for the foreseeable future. Catch up on Farm Futures’ recap of Monday’s biggest market-moving numbers.
Corn production soared last year after U.S. farmers boosted planted acreage to a nine-decade high, then benefited from largely favorable growing conditions across much of the Midwest last summer. USDA also raised harvested acres and hiked average yields for several Midwest states, including Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska and North Dakota.
Hopes for a price recovery rest partly on strong demand, including a record export pace. USDA will report its latest weekly export sales update on Thursday morning.
Soybeans buoyed by China buying hopes
March soybeans rose 7 cents to $10.4575 overnight after dropping 10.25 cents Tuesday to $10.3875, the contract’s lowest settlement since September 30. Futures have lost almost 17 cents so far this week after ending last week at $10.6250.
Soybean futures also saw some corrective buying overnight after two days of losses that sent the March contract to a 2 ½-month low at $10.3775. Continued strength could lead to ideas of a double-bottom that includes the $10.38 low hit January 2. But technicals remains soft, and bears may be targeting the $10.30 area, 2 cents above the October low.
Speculators sold actively in the wake of USDA’s bearish numbers. Funds sold another 7,000 soybean futures contracts Tuesday, bringing total sales for the first two days this week to about 36,000 contracts, based on StoneX estimates.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price fell about 10 cents Tuesday to $9.6625. Tuesday’s average was about 72.5 cents below March futures, narrowing from 83.75 cents at the end of 2025.
March soybean meal rose $1.20 to $292.80 per ton after plunging over 2% Tuesday to a three-month closing low. March soyoil rose 29 points to 51.49 cents per pound after gaining 1.8% Tuesday to end near a five-week high and post a fourth straight daily advance.
Soybean futures found support overnight from spillover strength from rallying crude oil and hopes for additional Chinese business. But rally prospects will be limited by Monday’s bearish USDA reports and an accelerating harvest of what’s expected to be another record crop in Brazil.
USDA kept its final estimate for the 2025 U.S. average soybean yield at 53 bpa, unchanged from November and contrary to expectations for a reduction of about 0.3 bpa. USDA also hiked production 9 million bushels to 4.262 billion bushels, down 2.6% from 2024’s crop, and cut its U.S. export forecast, reflecting U.S.-China trade tensions that prompted the Chinese to avoid buying U.S. beans much of last year.
Soybean exports for 2025-26 were lowered 60 million bushels to 1.575 billion bushels, down 16% from 2024-25 and a 13-year low. U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2025-26 were raised 60 million bushels to an estimated 350 million bushels, up 25 million bushels from 2024-25 and a six-year high.
Soybean traders will continue to watch for additional purchases from China with the country closing in on the White House’s 12-MMT initial purchase target, which stemmed from last fall’s trade truce between Beijing and Washington.
Early Tuesday, USDA reported private exporter soybean sales totaling 168,000 MT (6.17 million bushels) to China for delivery during the 2025-26 marketing year. USDA also reported 152,404 MT soybean sales for delivery to Mexico in 2025-26.
Wheat burdened by heavy global supplies
March SRW wheat rose 2.25 cents to $5.1275 after easing 0.75 cent Tuesday to $5.1050, the contract’s lowest close in a week. SRW futures are still up from a contract low at $5.0150 on January 2.
March HRW wheat rose 1.25 cents to $5.2075 after tumbling 7.25 cents Tuesday to $5.1950, the lowest close in over a week. March spring wheat rose 1.75 cents to $5.6825 after rebounding modestly Tuesday from a four-week low.
Wheat futures joined corn and soybeans in a modest corrective rebound overnight but remain under pressure from Monday’s bearish USDA data. In its Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings report, USDA estimated 2025 U.S. winter wheat plantings at 32.99 million acres, down about 163 million acres from last year but about 577,000 acres above expectations.
In its Supply and Demand report, USDA boosted estimated U.S. wheat stocks at the end of the 2025-26 marketing year by 25 million bushels to 926 million bushels. As of December 1, nationwide wheat stockpiles totaled 1.675 billion bushels, about 40 million bushels above expectations and up 6.6% from a year earlier.
The global supply outlook continued to expand. USDA hiked its estimate for worldwide wheat supplies at the end of 2025-26 by nearly 3.4 MMT, or 1.2%, to 278.3 MMT (10.2 billion bushels), a five-year high. The increase reflects bigger crops in Argentina and Russia.
U.S. wheat export demand may be perking up from a late-2025 slump, based on USDA’s weekly export inspections report Monday. For 2025-26 to date, wheat shipments now total 572.4 million bushels, up 19% from the same period in 2024-25 and about 64% of USDA’s full-year target of 900 million bushels.
Stock index futures ease, gold hits another record
Stock index futures fell overnight as investors waited for retail sales data and assessed a mixed batch of quarterly earnings results from major banks.
Futures based on the S&P 500 index declined 0.4%, while Nasdaq-100 futures slipped 0.6% and Dow futures fell 0.2%. The U.S. dollar index fell less than 0.1%.
February WTI crude oil futures added another 57 cents to $61.72 per barrel and reached a 3 ½-month high amid escalating concern over disruption to Iranian supplies due to a potential U.S. attack. Gold futures jumped almost 1% and posted their second record high in the past three days, climbing above $4,647 per ounce amid ongoing safe-haven buying.
What else I’m reading at www.FarmFutures.com this morning:
- While the beef and pork businesses may look appealing now compared to grain markets, it isn’t easy to start or expand a livestock enterprise. Take note of a few cautionary considerations before adding livestock.