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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.
What we’re watching
Oil hogged many of the headlines in the wake of U.S. military action in Venezuela. But there are also implications for U.S. agriculture and its top customers, namely China, which may now see a door to a Taiwan takeover. As geopolitical events shake markets, StoneX analyst Arlan Suderman discusses how U.S. ag can reduce reliance on bulk commodity exports to build resilience. Watch our latest Ag Marketing IQ In Depth video.
Corn yield may be revised lower
March corn futures rose 1.25 cents to $4.4525 per bushel late in overnight trading after edging down 0.4 cent Tuesday to $4.44, the contract’s sixth decline in the past seven days. Prices faded late Tuesday after touching a one-week high at $4.47.
Corn technicals conveyed a firmer tone overnight as March futures pushed back above the 200-day simple moving average around $4.45. A settlement above the 200-day SMA, a key long-term indicator the market hasn’t closed above since December 26, could have bulls eyeing a return to the $4.50 area. But prices otherwise continue to hover around the midpoint of the past two months’ trading range. March futures retain key support around the December low at $4.3550.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price fell about 0.5 cent Tuesday to $4.0525, about 38.75 cents below March futures.
Corn futures climbed overnight behind spillover from strength in soybeans and wheat, along with ongoing support from a record export pace. Speculators have stepped up buying this week after last week’s rally strengthened the market’s chart posture. Funds bought about 34,000 corn futures contracts over the past two days after selling 48,000 contracts the previous five days, based on StoneX estimates.
Traders also appear to be positioning for potentially bullish numbers in Monday’s USDA reports, including expected reductions in the agency’s estimates for U.S. corn production and average yields. The reports include USDA’s Crop Production Annual Summary, which typically features “final” 2025 estimates for U.S. corn and soybean production and yields.
A year ago, USDA’s unexpectedly large cut to the U.S. corn yield helped trigger a winter rally. USDA lowered its final yield average for the 2024 corn harvest to 179.3 bushels per acre from 183.1 bpa previously, contrary to expectations for a smaller reduction. USDA currently pegs the 2025 harvest at a record average of 186 bpa, though some analysts believe the final number will be lower after crop disease and unfavorable weather hampered yields in parts of the Midwest last summer.
By Thursday, the agency is expected to be fully caught up on weekly export sales numbers that were backlogged during last fall’s government shutdown (Thursday’s report will cover the week ended January 1).
On Monday, USDA reported net U.S. corn sales for the week ended December 25 at 756,400 metric tons (29.8 million bushels), down 66% from the week prior and a 16-week low. Sales commitments for the 2025-26 marketing year to date (including accumulated exports) now total 1.99 billion bushels, up 30% from the same period in 2024-25.
The new year serves up farmers with a complex market brew bubbling with geopolitical and economic uncertainty, along with the usual questions over demand and price direction. Could corn find its way to a $5 handle, or break below $4? Read Bryce Knorr’s latest Ag Marketing IQ post as he examines key issues for the grain markets ahead of USDA’s critical January 12 reports.
Soybeans extend rebound amid China buying
March soybeans rose 10.25 cents to $10.6650 overnight after slipping 5.75 cents Tuesday to $10.5625, the contract’s sixth decline in the past seven days. Earlier Tuesday, March futures touched a one-week high at $10.6875.
Futures again caught a bid overnight as the market extended a corrective recovery from the 2 ½-month lows hit late last week. Overnight, March futures pushed above the 10-day SMA ($10.6150) and are in the process of testing the 200-day SMA ($10.66). A close above those levels would help bolster ideas the market is establishing a near-term bottom. Other upside targets to watch include the 20-day SMA ($10.7050), while key support is seen at last Friday’s $10.38 low.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price dropped about 5 cents Tuesday to $9.8225, about 74 cents below March futures.
Soybean strength reflects fresh Chinese demand as the country closes in on a purchase target agreed to as part of a “truce” struck with the U.S. in October. Price upside likely will be limited favorable growing conditions and accelerating harvest in Brazil. Brazil, the world’s top soybean producer, is widely expected to turn in another record crop.
Speculators retain a bullish position in soybeans even after the market’s steep late-2025 tumble and a recent selling spree. On Tuesday, funds sold about 4,000 soybean futures contracts, bringing net sales over the past seven days to about 22,000 contracts. Despite the recent sales, funds still held a net long position of over 90,000 soybean futures contracts at the end of 2025.
China continues to make progress toward the 12 MMT (441 million bushels) of U.S. soybean purchases the White House has said the country would make before the end of February. On Tuesday, USDA reported private exporter soybean sales totaling 136,000 MT (5 million bushels) to China for delivery during the 2025-26 marketing year. USDA also reported another 206,700 MT of soybean sales to “unknown destinations,” also for 2025-26 delivery.
“The market priced in the expectation that China would buy 12 MMT of U.S. soybeans back in November, before the big selloff that followed,” StoneX analyst Arlan Suderman said in a report Tuesday. “I'm far more confident now that China will buy the full 12 MMT committed to for the current marketing year than I was a month ago, with our cash sources indicating that China has now purchased more than 10 MMT, roughly 4 MMT, more than USDA has confirmed to this point.”
However, “the question still remains over when shipment of those soybeans will occur due to logistic issues at China’s ports,” he added. “Meanwhile, Brazil’s harvest of cheaper soybeans is slowly gaining momentum.”
Traders also await potential price-friendly adjustments in USDA’s Monday reports. In January 2025, USDA’s final average soybean yield estimate for the 2024 crop was dropped to 50.7 bpa from 51.7 bpa estimated the prior November. Production was lowered to 4.366 billion bushels, down 2.1% from the previous figure.
U.S. soybean exports are on track to drop to a 13-year low, based on USDA’s forecast. By contrast, Brazil’s soybean exports surged nearly 12% in 2025 to a record 108.68 MMT (3.99 billion bushels), Reuters reported Monday, citing data from shipping agency Cargonave. The increase in part reflects stepped-up purchases from China, which avoided the U.S. soybean market for about half of the year amid a protracted trade dispute with the Trump Administration.
On Monday, StoneX Brazil hiked its 2025-26 Brazilian soybean production estimate by 0.2% to 177.6 MMT (6.53 billion bushels), citing higher yields in Mato Grosso, one of the top production states. The firm’s forecast is about 96 million bushels, or 1.5%, above USDA’s 175-MMT estimate.
Wheat supported by drought concerns
March SRW wheat rose 4.25 cents to $5.1475 after earlier touching $5.1550, the contract’s highest intraday price since December 30. A higher close today would be the market’s third in the past four days as the market extends a modest bounce from last Friday’s contract low at $5.0150.
March HRW wheat rose 5.25 cents to $5.2675 after climbing 0.75 cent Tuesday as the market extended a recovery from two-week lows hit last Friday. March spring wheat rose 1 cent to $5.6825 after sinking 4 cents Tuesday to end near a three-week low.
Wheat futures climbed overnight after USDA reported state-level ratings declines for some top producers, which fueled concern over drought conditions in parts of the Southern Plains. Traders are also waiting for USDA’s January 12 reports, which will include the agency’s initial U.S. winter wheat planting estimates for the crop that will be harvested in 2026.
Weak prices and low returns likely prompted U.S. farmers to scale back winter wheat seedings in 2025, meaning the crop probably lost acres to corn and soybeans. Wheat prices were among the poorest performers among all major commodities in 2025, with the most-active SRW futures contract dropping over 8% for the year and hitting a six-year low in October.
Tanner Ehmke, grain and oilseed economist at CoBank, estimated 2025 U.S. plantings of all winter wheat varieties at 32.5 million acres, down 2.2% from 33.22 million acres in 2024 and the lowest since 2020.
Ehmke recently raised his seedings estimate from the 32.07 million acres he forecast last fall, saying ample Plains precipitation late last year “allowed more continuous cropping behind corn, soybean and milo harvests,” he said. However, “low wheat prices relative to corn and soybeans, I think, are still going to result in a net loss of wheat acres.”
U.S. wheat exports have slumped in recent weeks but remain up sharply from last year’s levels. USDA reported net U.S. wheat sales during the week ended December 25 at a weaker-than-expected 95,400 MT (3.5 million bushels), down 35% from the previous week and a marketing-year low for the second straight week.
Elsewhere, European Union soft wheat exports from July 1 through January 4 totaled 11.18 MMT (410.8 million bushels), down 1.5% from the same period a year earlier, based on European Commission data. Corn imports during that period dropped 20% to 8.22 MMT.
Stock index futures mixed after record day
Stock index futures were mixed overnight a day after the S&P 500 index and the Dow industrial average both climbed to all-time highs.
Futures based on the S&P 500 fell less than 0.1%, while Nasdaq-100 index futures were down 0.2% and Dow futures rose less than 0.1%. The U.S. dollar index was little changed.
February WTI crude oil futures fell 32 cents to $56.81 per barrel after earlier dropping to the market’s lowest level in over two weeks. Prices sank after President Trump said the U.S. had reached a deal to import up to $2 billion in Venezuelan crude, adding to concerns over a supply glut. Gold futures fell 0.9% to about $4,455 per ounce.