Farmfutures

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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.

What we’re watching

Knowing breakeven costs per bushel is important for farmers every year, but even more so in uncertain times. To calculate breakeven prices accurately, experts recommend building a team of professionals who can assist with different pieces of the puzzle – an agronomist, for example. Walk through a game plan with Prairie Farmer’s Ava Splear.

Corn sagging as trade looks ahead to USDA

December corn fell 0.25 cent to $4.2850 per bushel late overnight after sliding 6.5 cents Thursday to $4.2875, the contract’s lowest settlement since October 27. Futures are down from $4.3150 at the end of last week and poised to halt a three-week winning streak.

Corn technicals softened this week as upside momentum from the brief late-October rally stalled and December futures settled into sideways consolidation. Prices extended Thursday’s declines and further probed the downside overnight, with December futures matching Monday’s low at $4.2775. Further weakness is possible, though sellers may be reluctant to stake out large bearish bets ahead of USDA’s Crop Production and Supply and Demand reports Nov. 14.

December futures continue to face stiff resistance at $4.35 up to the 200-day simple moving average, currently $4.3625, which is just under last week’s high at $4.37. With prices closing under the 10-day SMA ($4.3150) on Thursday, the next downside support levels include last week’s intraday low at and the 20-day SMA, both at $4.26.

Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price fell about 6.25 cents Thursday to $3.8850, down from $3.9150 a week ago. The cash average was about 40 cents below December futures, little changed from a week ago.

Futures retain support from strong export and ethanol demand, but this week’s price performance suggests those bullish forces can go only so far with the market staring at a massive crop and heavy supply overhang in 2026. Farmer selling picked up recently, and next week’s USDA reports may not show much of a decline in yields versus market expectations earlier this fall.

Analysts believe USDA will revise U.S. corn yield and production forecasts lower, but estimates seen this week differed little from USDA’s September numbers.

S&P Global kept its 2025 average U.S. yield estimate at 185.5 bushels per acre, steady compared to last month. The firm also raised its production forecast almost 100 million bushels, to 16.803 billion bushels, citing higher acreage. S&P Global’s figure is below USDA’s current estimate of 16.814 billion bushels. StoneX estimated the average yield at 186 bpa.

The record-long government shutdown meant grain markets went a sixth consecutive week without USDA’s weekly export sales report, but corn numbers likely held strong.

Traders surveyed by Reuters expected net corn sales ranged from 800,000 metric tons to 2 million metric tons (31.5 million to 78.7 million bushels) during the week ended October 30. Based on weekly export inspections, corn inspected for export for the 2025-26 marketing year through the week ended October 30 totaled 482.6 million bushels, up 64% from the same period in 2024-25.

Despite below-breakeven crop prices and high input costs, cash rent rates for Midwest farmland are expected to mostly hold steady rather than decline in 2026. As landowners and tenants prepare for next year, it’s critical both sides keep lines of communication open, one economist told Midwest Crops Editor Tom J. Bechman.

Soybeans tumble amid China skepticism

January soybeans rose 6.75 cents to $11.1425 late overnight after plunging 26.75 cents Thursday to $11.0750, the contract’s lowest close since October 29. Futures are down from $11.1525 at the end of last week and tracking for the first weekly decline in the past four weeks.

Thursday’s selloff did considerable damage to soybeans’ near-term technical posture even as the market remained in overbought territory, with a Relative Strength Index reading above 71. January futures’ Wednesday high at $11.37, a 16-month high for a most-active contract, could prove to be a near-term top, unless fresh China demand sparks further buying.

Downside levels to watch include the 10-day SMA (currently $11.11), which January futures haven’t closed under since October 16, and last week’s low at $10.7025, the top of a gap left on the daily bar chart following a sharply higher open to start the week.

Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price sank over 26.5 cents Thursday to $10.33, down from $10.3525 at the end of last week. Thursday’s average was about 74.5 cents below January futures.

December soybean meal rose $1.40 to $314.10 per ton after tumbling 3.7% Thursday. December soyoil rose 3 points to 49.38 cents per pound.

Thursday’s steep losses in soybeans were fueled by escalating concern that Chinese soybean purchases following last week’s U.S.-China trade truce won’t live up to expectations. While China earlier this week confirmed it will suspend retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports, including duties on farm goods, imports of U.S. soybeans still face a 13% tariff.

“Much-anticipated sales to China haven’t materialized to the satisfaction” of the market, StoneX analyst Bevan Everett said in a note. “The initial purchases have been light, and China has been slow to openly confirm the total promised.”

After last week’s meeting between President Trump and China’s Xi Jinping, the White House said China would buy at least 12 MMT (441 million bushels) of U.S. soybeans in the last two months of 2025 and at least 25 MMT in each of the next three years.

“The market is concerned that China’s modest purchases of U.S. soybeans could make the projected (12 MMT) target challenging to achieve, with U.S. prices losing competitiveness against the cheaper Brazilian soybean supply,” according to Grain Market Insider.

In Brazil, weather forecasts generally remain favorable for the 2025-26 soybean crop. Central and northern Brazil “will see increasing rain and improvements in soil moisture and conditions” for crops the next two weeks, World Weather, Inc., said. “There should be adequate breaks between rounds of rain to allow for some fieldwork to advance.”

Brazilian grain exporting agency Anec estimated the country’s November soybean exports at 3.77 MMT, up from 2.34 MMT last year. Brazil’s government reported October soybean exports at 6.73 MMT, up from 4.71 MMT in October 2024.

Earlier this week, S&P Global held its U.S. average soybean yield estimate steady at 53 bpa and also kept expected production unchanged at 4.26 billion bushels. StoneX estimated the average yield at 53.6 bpa, up slightly from USDA’s record 53.5 bpa forecast in September.

Wheat erases most of week’s gains

December SRW wheat futures fell 3.25 cents to $5.3225 late overnight after sinking 19.25 cents Thursday to $5.3550, down from Wednesday’s three-month closing high. Futures are down from $5.34 at the end of last week and could end a three-week win streak. SRW futures are still up about 40 cents from a contract low of $4.9225 on Oct. 14.

December HRW futures fell 1.75 cents to $5.2050 after dropping 17.75 cents Thursday to the contract’s lowest close in a week. Futures are still up from a contract low at $4.7725 on Oct. 14. December spring wheat rose 1 cent to $5.58 after adding 0.75 cent Thursday.

Wheat futures fell sharply Thursday, largely erasing this week’s gains, as the market suffered from spillover pressure as soybeans and corn tumbled. Prices had rallied amid reports China stepped in for small purchases of U.S. wheat, spurring active fund short covering. But the rally also made U.S. wheat values less competitive on global markets.

Chinese purchases are “positive for the market, but we will see if further cargoes are booked going forward,” StoneX analyst Mike O’Dea wrote. He noted that U.S. HRW wheat is now about $20 per MT higher than Russian supplies.

China will remove an additional 15% retaliatory levy on U.S. wheat, according to a finance ministry notice. China booked two cargoes of U.S. wheat, the first such purchases since October last year, Reuters reported. The purchases of around 120,000 MT for December shipment include one cargo of U.S. soft white wheat and one of spring wheat, sources told Reuters.

Expectations for increased supplies from Russia, the world’s largest wheat exporter, continue to limit price upside in wheat. The Russian government is considering nearly doubling its grain export quota to 20 MMT for the second half of the 2025-26 marketing season, running from February 15 to June 30, according to a draft document published Wednesday by the Russian Grain Union.

Net U.S. wheat exports during the week ended October 30 ranged from 250,000 MT to 650,000 MT (9.19 million to 23.9 million bushels), based on the Reuters survey. For 2025-26 to date, wheat shipments totaled 434.5 million bushels, up almost 21% from the same period in 2024-25 and a 12-year high for this point of the marketing year, which began June 1.

Brief weekend cold snap for Midwest

This weekend will bring a brief cold snap for much of the Midwest, with temperatures dipping into the 30s Fahrenheit by Sunday or Monday and potential for snow in the eastern Corn Belt before temperatures rebound. Precipitation totals may range from 0.1 inch to 0.75 inch from Iowa eastward through Ohio and other Great Lakes states, based on NOAA’s 72-hour precipitation map.

By the middle of next week, temperatures across most of the central U.S. are expected to return to above-normal levels and remain there through the middle of the month, based on the National Weather Service’s 6-to-10-day and 8-to-14-day outlooks. The latest 6-to-10-day outlook, which covers Nov. 12-16, continued to expand warmer-than-normal conditions from the Plains through the central Corn Belt while signaling below-normal precipitation potential.

Stocks capping down week amid tech slide

Stock index futures eroded overnight following Thursday’s sharp declines, as continued softness in technology shares sets the market up for a down week.

Futures based on the S&P 500 index fell less than 0.2%, while Nasdaq-100 and Dow futures both dropped about 0.2%. The underlying S&P 500 ended at a two-week low on Thursday and is down 1.8% so far this week.

The U.S. dollar index fell less than 0.1% as the benchmark extended a modest pullback from five-month highs posted mid-week. December WTI crude oil futures rose 58 cents to $60.01 per barrel. Gold futures rose 0.6% to about $4,015 per ounce.

What else I’m reading at www.FarmFutures.com this morning: