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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.
What we’re watching
Soybeans are likely to be on the agenda when trade chiefs from the U.S. and China meet in Paris this weekend. The meeting could shed light on the question of if, or when, Beijing may resume purchases of U.S. beans beyond the 12 million metric tons promised last fall. President Trump, who’s expected to meet with his China counterpart around April 1, has fueled speculation China may step up for more.
Corn runs into pre-weekend profit-taking
May corn futures fell 2 cents to $4.6050 per bushel late in overnight trading after adding 2.25 cents Thursday to $4.6250, a four-month closing high. Futures are little changed from $4.6050 at the end of last week. December futures fell 3.25 cents to $4.8675.
Corn’s bullish technical momentum stalled overnight as the market appears to be running into some pre-weekend profit-taking. Despite the war-driven market upheaval, May corn is actually down slightly for the week and well off Monday’s 10-month high at $4.76. Downside levels to watch include the overnight low at $4.60 and the 10-day simple moving average (SMA) at roughly $4.54.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price rose almost 2.25 cents Thursday to just under $4.19. Thursday’s average was about 43.5 cents below May futures, widening from 41.75 cents a week earlier.
Corn futures faded overnight as crude oil pulled back following reports the U.S. temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian oil already at sea in an effort to expand available crude supply. But there were few signs of de-escalation in the Middle East that disrupted global energy markets. According to the International Energy Agency, the war is causing the biggest-ever oil-supply disruption, with Middle East countries having cut production by at least 10 million barrels a day.
April WTI crude futures fell over 1% to $94.70 per barrel late in overnight trading but are still up over $27, or 41%, over the past two weeks (from $67.02). Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose near $103 per barrel overnight.
Speculators have poured into the corn market the past two weeks and are now net long the equivalent of about 200 million bushels of corn, according to John Zanker, Senior Analyst at Farmer’s Keeper Financial.
“A lot can change in a short amount of time and there is now a LOT of money on the line for both the funds and farming community,” Zanker said in a report today. “Unlike soybeans, the price of corn appears to be in line with the fundamentals, so the downside should be limited when the next bearish news comes out. That being said, I'd be using this run to get some additional old crop sales on the books, along with the first round of new crop.”
USDA’s weekly export sales report Thursday suggested slight cooling in corn demand, though shipments for the 2025-26 marketing year remain on a record pace.
Net U.S. corn sales totaled 1.531 million metric tons (60.3 million bushels) during the week ended March 5, down 24% from the previous week and down 2% from the average for the previous four weeks, USDA said. Sales were around the middle of trade expectations and led by Japan, with purchases totaling 670,000 metric tons (MT).
For the 2025-26 marketing year to date, sales commitments (including accumulated exports) now total 2.618 billion bushels, up 32% from the same period in 2024-25 and 79% of USDA’s full-year export target. USDA already forecast corn exports at a record 3.3 billion bushels, up over 15% from 2024-25, but likely needs to boost its number further.
“It is clear the USDA is too low” in the 2025-26 corn export forecast, StoneX analyst Bevan Everett said in a note. It was a “surprise” USDA didn’t raise its outlook in its March Supply and Demand report Tuesday, “but it looks like it's inevitable,” he added.
Elsewhere, the Rosario Grains Exchange kept its monthly estimates for the Argentine corn and soybean crops unchanged, citing widespread rains across most growing areas in February. The exchange forecasts the country’s 2026 corn crop at 62 MMT (2.44 billion bushels), up 24% from last year and above USDA’s current 53 MMT projection.
Grain markets latched on to crude oil’s rally, with December corn futures coming within 2 cents of $5. An extended crude climb could continue to buoy grains, but it’s an open question whether corn can sustain a rally based on its fundamentals alone. Is it time to at least consider pricing some new-crop? Farm Futures editors discuss in our latest Ag Marketing IQ In Depth video.
Soybean traders eyeing U.S.-China trade talks
May soybeans fell 11 cents to $12.1625 overnight after jumping 13.25 cents Thursday to $12.2725, the contract’s fifth gain in the past six days and the highest close for a most-active contract since May 2024. Futures are up from $12.0075 at the end of last week and tracking for a sixth consecutive weekly advance. November soybeans fell 7 cents to $11.6050.
Soybeans technicals lost some upside momentum overnight but the market remains in a sharp uptrend, with May futures up almost 4% since the end of February and up over $1.65, or almost 16%, from January lows. Upside levels to watch include Thursday’s high at $12.3875 and the May 2024 highs around $12.58. Downside levels to watch include $12 and the 10-day SMA ($11.94).
Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price rose 13.25 cents Thursday to almost $11.5250, the highest since June 2024. Thursday’s average was about 75 cents below May futures, widening from 73.75 cents a week earlier.
May soybean meal fell $2.80 to $317.40 per ton after gaining 1.5% Thursday to end near a two-week high. May soyoil fell 26 points to 67.16 cents per pound after adding 0.4% Thursday to 67.42 cents, the highest close for a most-active contract since November 2022.
Soybean futures followed crude oil lower overnight as the soy complex runs into profit-taking ahead of the weekend, with funds likely looking to cash in on a large net long position. Prices remain underpinned by expectations for an imminent announcement from the Environmental Protection Agency on a sharp ramping up in biofuels blending mandates.
Additionally, demand optimism has accelerated ahead of a meeting between Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese counterparts this weekend in Paris, which precedes a meeting between President Trump and Xi Jinping around April 1. “The market consensus is that the meeting between top leaders of the two nations would definitely provide some incentive for more purchasing,” an analyst with a Chinese trading company told Bloomberg.
Could Brazilian quality issues open the door for U.S. soybean exports? Some soybean shipments from Brazil have failed to clear the country’s own sanitary inspections, raising concerns about potential disruptions at a crucial time for trade with China. Earlier this week, Cargill Inc. suspended exports from Brazil to China because of the issue.
USDA’s export update Thursday showed improvement in soybean numbers but sales remained down sharply for the full year.
Net U.S. soybean sales totaled 456,700 MT (16.8 million bushels) for the week ended March 5, down 19% from the previous week but down 2% from the four-week average. Sales were at the low end of expectations. Indonesia led buyers at 204,300 MT, while China purchased 83,100 MT, including 68,000 MT switched from “unknown destinations.”
For 2025-26 to date, U.S. export commitments now total 1.341 billion bushels, down 19% from the same period last year. USDA-confirmed China purchases for 2025-26 total 10.9 MMT (400.5 million bushels), roughly half the 21.4 MMT sold by this point in 2024-25.
Elsewhere, Argentina’s Rosario Grain Exchange kept its estimate for the country’s 2026 soybean crop unchanged at 48 MMT (1.76 billion bushels), down 3% from 2025.
Wheat futures heading for weekly decline
March SRW wheat fell 1 cent to $5.9750 after climbing 3.75 cents Thursday to $5.9850. Futures are down from $6.1675 at the end of last week and poised for the first weekly decline in five weeks. Early this week, May SRW futures briefly rallied to $6.4175, the highest intraday price for a most-active contract since June 2024.
March HRW wheat fell 1.5 cents to $6.12 after ending unchanged Thursday. HRW futures are down from $6.2350 at the end of last week. March spring wheat rose 0.25 cent to $6.3475 after slipping 3.5 cents Thursday.
Wheat futures extended Thursday’s price pullback and appear to be slipping into sideways consolidation as upside momentum fades and traders monitor the Middle East war. The market remains underpinned by a dry outlook for most of the Plains through late March, fueling concerns over winter wheat yields as the crop comes out of dormancy.
Signs of improved export demand helped give wheat futures an early boost Thursday, but gains faded later in the day.
USDA reported net U.S. wheat sales for the week ended March 5 at a four-week high of 455,400 MT (16.7 million bushels), more than double the previous week and up 49% from the four-week average. Mexico led buyers at 238,600 MT.
For 2025-26 to date, U.S. wheat sales commitments (including accumulated exports) now total 846.6 million bushels, up almost 14% from the same period in 2024-25 and 94% of USDA’s full-year target of 900 million bushels.
Net weekly U.S. wheat sales may range from 200,000 MT to 450,000 MT (7.35 million to 16.5 million bushels), based on the Reuters survey. The previous week’s sales totaled 203,100 MT, down 16% from the previous week and down 42% from the four-week average.
For 2025-26 to date, U.S. wheat sales commitments (including accumulated exports) are now 863.4 million bushels, up almost 12% from the same period in 2024-25 and 96% of USDA’s full-year target of 900 million bushels.
Warmer, drier outlook expands across central U.S.
The weekend and early part of next week will bring more precipitation for the central and eastern Corn Belt, with much of Iowa, Missouri, Illinois and Indiana in line for 0.5 inch to 1.5 inches, based on the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Heavier amounts are seen for Wisconsin, which could receive 1.5 inches to over 2 inches. The Plains will be mostly dry.
After an early-week cold snap, temperatures across much of the central U.S. start warming up and turning drier into late March. The latest 6-to-14-day and 8-to-14-day outlooks from the National Weather Service showed continued expansion of above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation from the Southwest across the Plains and most of the Corn Belt.
Stock index futures rebound overnight
Stock index futures rebounded overnight despite few signs of de-escalation in the Middle East war. Investors await the release of the January personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure.
Futures based on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 indexes both rose over 0.2%, while Dow futures gained over 0.3%. The U.S. dollar index was up 0.4% after earlier reaching its highest level since late November.
April WTI crude futures fell over 1% to about $94.70 per barrel late in overnight trading but prices are still up about $27, or 42%, over the past two weeks. Gold futures were down 0.5% at about $5,100 per ounce.