Farmfutures

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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.

What we’re watching

Historic wildfires have torched over 700,000 acres in Nebraska, killed one person, displaced cattle herds and left ranchers scrambling for feed. Burned pastures may come back eventually with rain, but meantime, “ranchers are still going to have to find feed for their cows until they can graze their pastures,” one livestock extension specialist said. Oklahoma was also recently hit by major wildfires, dimming prospects for herd expansion even with cattle numbers near 75-year lows.

Corn drops overnight as crude oil sinks

May corn futures fell 3.75 cents to $4.66 per bushel late in overnight trading after gaining 6.5 cents Wednesday to $4.6975, the contract’s highest settlement since early June. Futures are little changed from $4.6725 at the end of last week. December futures fell 4 cents to $4.9050 after posting its highest close since December 2023.

Corn technicals strengthened as Thursday’s gains sent May futures near the top end of the past two weeks’ trading range. A push above Thursday’s high at $4.70 could embolden bulls for a possible test of the 10-month high at $4.76 posted March 9. But the market could also be vulnerable to pre-weekend profit-taking with funds still holding a hefty net-long position. Downside levels to watch include the 10- and 20-day simple moving averages (SMAs) at $4.6025 and $4.5325, respectively, and this week’s low at $4.4925.

Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price rose over 6.75 cents Thursday to $4.2675. Thursday’s average was 43 cents below May futures, narrowing from 43.5 cents a week earlier.

Corn futures faded overnight as weakness in wheat and crude oil futures kept buyers sidelined. While oil prices remain up sharply for the month, WTI futures settled into a sideways pattern the past week, removing much of the upside impetus for corn and returning grain market focus to bearish supply fundamentals and the March 31 Prospective Plantings report.

The Middle East conflict is about to enter its fourth week with no end in sight, as Iran continued its attacks on neighboring states even after Israel indicated it would refrain from striking Tehran’s energy infrastructure. May WTI crude futures fell $1.41 to $94.14 late in overnight trading but are still up over 40% since the end of February.

The war prompted President Trump to suspends the Jones Act for 60 days to ease fuel, fertilizer supply crunch.

The war has disrupted global fertilizer markets and fueled uncertainty over the outlook for spring planting. USDA’s Prospective Plantings report March 31 is expected to show a drop in corn acreage intentions, and the decline may be magnified because of war-related disruptions to global fertilizer supplies.

Based on a farmer survey, advisor Allendale estimated U.S. corn plantings will total 93.68 million acres 2026, which would be down 5.2% from a nine-decade high of 98.79 million acres in 2025. The firm citing rising input costs and a corn-to-soybean ratio that appears to favor the former crop. In February, USDA forecast corn plantings at 94 million acres.

Allendale also forecast soybean plantings at 85.66 million acres, up 4.44 million acres, or 5.5%, from a six-year low in 2025. In February, USDA came out at 85 million acres.

“Concerns over high fertilizer prices and shortages are leading to talk of lower acreage, which was already likely before the conflict with Iran began,” John Zanker, senior analyst at Farmer’s Keeper Financial, said in a note. “It was always going to be difficult to keep acreage near (2025 levels), especially with December corn futures hovering below break-even values for most American farmers.”

USDA weekly export sales report showed a pullback in corn numbers, but demand remains on a record pace.

Net U.S. corn sales for delivery during 2025-26 totaled 1.172 million metric tons (46.1 million bushels) during the week ended March 12, down 22% from the previous week and down 18% from the four-week average. Sales were at the lower half of expectations and led by Mexico, at 287,200 metric tons.

For the 2025-26 marketing year to date, sales commitments (including accumulated exports) now total 2.664 billion bushels, up 30% from the same period in 2024-25 and 81% of USDA’s full-year export target. Mexico leads buyers at 803.3 million bushels so far this year, or 31% of all sales.

California’s low carbon fuel standards, combined with an expected upshift in federal biofuels mandates, promise emerging new demand opportunities for farmers but also higher costs and regulatory hurdles. As these markets evolve, farmers should lean into the regulatory process, Terrain analysts Bree Baatz and Matt Woolf said in our latest Ag Marketing IQ In Depth video.

Soybeans vulnerable amid heavy fund long

May soybeans rose 1.5 cents to $11.70 overnight after adding 6.75 cents Wednesday to $11.6850, the contract’s third consecutive daily advance. Futures are still down from $12.25725 at the end of last week. November soybeans rose 1.25 cent to $11.4750.

Soybean technicals stabilized after the early-week selloff broke May futures’ sharp uptrend from January lows. But futures remain under the 10- and 20-day SMAs ($11.8750 and $11.78, respectively) and are down over 5% from a 21-month intraday high at $12.3875 March 12. A return to the highs seems unlikely over the near term with prices potentially heading for a holding pattern ahead of USDA’s March 31 reports. Downside levels to watch include the $11.40 area and the late-February low at $11.3650.

Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price rose 6.75 cents Thursday to $10.9350. Thursday’s average was about 75 cents below May futures, little changed from a week earlier.

Soybean futures faded from initial advances overnight as crude oil came under pressure and may face pre-weekend profit-taking if corn and wheat continue to slide. Even after Monday’s speculator-driven selloff, funds still hold a large net long position in soybean futures and may pare that position back further ahead of the March 31 acreage report.

“The funds are way too long given the current non-war fundamentals and another sharp sell-off could be in the cards,” Zanker said. “I'll be very reluctant to carry any old-crop past March 30, given my concerns for a potentially sharp increase in (soybean) acreage.” However, he added that “if crude oil futures surge well above $100 next week and hold there for a while, we couldn't rule out an eventual move in the July contract to $13.”

Soybeans retain support from expectations for greater biofuels demand. On Tuesday, prices climbed on reports that Trump invited farmers and biofuel producers to the White House on March 27 for a “Celebration of Agriculture” event, driving expectations the president will announce ramped-up biofuels blending requirements, known as Renewable Volume Obligations.

USDA’s export sales report Thursday was a disappointment for soybeans, which posted the market’s slowest week since the beginning of February.

Net U.S. soybean sales totaled 298,200 MT (11 million bushels) for the week ended March 12, down 35% from the prior week and down 42% from the average for the previous four weeks, USDA reported. Sales fell short of the low end of expectations. China led buyers at 79,900 MT, including 66,000 MT switched from “unknown destinations.”

For 2025-26 to date, U.S. export commitments now total 1.352 billion bushels, down 19% from the same period last year. USDA-confirmed China purchases for 2025-26 now total 10.98 MMT (403.4 million bushels), roughly half the 21.4 MMT sold by this point in 2024-25.

Elsewhere, Brazilian oilseed association Abiove raised its 2026 estimate for the country’s soybean crop by 0.4% to 177.85 MMT (6.53 billion bushels) and held its export outlook steady at 111.5 MMT. Abiove’s estimate is below USDA’s current 180-MMT figure, but both would be records.

Wheat lower amid export slump

May SRW wheat fell 9.75 cents to $5.9825 after climbing 3.75 cents Thursday to $6.08, the contract’s highest close since March 13. Futures are still down from $6.1375 at the end of last week.

May HRW wheat fell 11.75 cents to $6.1550 after adding 0.5 cent Thursday. Futures are little changed from $6.30 at the end of last week. May spring wheat fell 6.25 cents to $6.3750.

Winter wheat futures led the grain and oilseed complex lower overnight as the market extended the sideways pattern of the past two weeks. Plains weather remains a background concern that will increasingly come into focus next week. Conditions in key wheat states such as Oklahoma remain dry, and last weekend’s cold snap will be followed by a heat wave this weekend.

Thursday’s weekly USDA export update further underscored the eroding trend in U.S. wheat shipments as the 2025-26 crop year winds down.

USDA reported net U.S. wheat sales for the week ended March 12 at just 189,900 MT (6.98 million bushels), down 58% from the previous week and down 36% from the four-week average. Mexico was the top buyer at 153,100 MT. Sales were below the low end of expectations.

For 2025-26 to date, U.S. wheat sales commitments (including accumulated exports) now total 870.3 million bushels, up almost 14% from the same period in 2024-25 and 96.7% of USDA’s full-year target of 900 million bushels.

Based on the Allendale survey, U.S. producers may plant 44.88 million acres to all varieties of wheat this season, which would mark a decline of 423,000 acres from last year. Of that total, spring wheat plantings were estimated at 9.68 million acres. In February, USDA pegged all U.S. wheat plantings at 45 million acres, down 300,000 acres from last year and the lowest since 2020.

Elsewhere, Russian consultancy SovEcon raised its estimate for the country’s 2026 wheat crop by 2% to 87.6 MMT (3.22 billion bushels), citing favorable weather. The International Grains Council estimated total world grain production at 2.417 billion MT in 2026-27, down from 2.47 billion last season, and forecast global wheat production at 822 MMT, down from 845 MMT last year.

Warmer, dry weekend ahead for Midwest

The Midwest and Plains will be mostly today through the beginning of next week, with temperatures briefly warming into the 70s and 80s Fahrenheit over the weekend across much of the region. Temperatures may reach 90 degrees in the Central and Southern Plains.

A warmer, drier pattern continues for the Plains and western Corn Belt much of next week. The National Weather Service’s latest 6-to-14-day outlook, which covers March 25-29, calls for above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation for the Plains and through the western half of Illinois. The 8-to-14-day outlook suggests improving rainfall chances as the month ends, with near-normal precipitation prospects for most of the Plains and Midwest.

Stock index futures pressure by war concerns

Stock index futures fell overnight as elevated oil prices and concerns over a protracted war in the Middle East continued to weigh on investors.

Futures based on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 indexes fell 0.4% and almost 0.6%, respectively, while Dow futures fell 0.3%. The U.S. dollar index rose almost 0.2% but remains down a 10-month high posted Monday.