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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.
What we’re watching
For anyone in the grain markets, February is no time for a long winter’s nap. Any number of news events, outside factors or other dynamics could shake things up and present potential pricing opportunities: Geopolitics and the U.S. dollar, for example. In her latest Ag Marketing IQ column, Total Farm Marketing’s Naomi Blohm walks through five fundamentals to track closely.
Also, please take a moment to fill out Farm Futures’ annual planting intentions survey. Your responses will be kept anonymous, and you can enter a drawing to win one of five $50 Amazon cards! Click here to access the survey.
Corn weaker despite higher export outlook
March corn futures fell 1 cent to $4.2775 per bushel in late overnight trading after ending unchanged Tuesday at $4.2875, slightly below the mid-point of the past two weeks’ range. Futures are down from a three-week intraday high of $4.36 posted February 6.
Corn technicals softened overnight as March futures pushed slightly under trendline support around $4.2750, putting the market on track for its third consecutive close under the 10-day simple moving average (SMA), currently $4.2925. Prices had been trending higher since bouncing from a five-month-low intraday lower of $4.1725 posted January 13. But technicals have turned neutral-weaker as the rally lost momentum, and March futures appear poised to test the 20-day SMA ($4.27). A push under that level could have bears targeting last week’s low around $4.24 and the $4.20 area.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price was little changed Tuesday at $3.9525. Tuesday’s average was about 33.5 cents below March futures, narrowing from 34.25 cents a week earlier.
Corn futures extended sideways-lower consolidation overnight after a relatively muted reaction to Tuesday’s USDA Supply and Demand update, which included some price-friendly but not earth-shaking numbers.
USDA hiked its estimate for U.S. corn exports during the 2025-26 marketing year for the fourth time since August, an acknowledgment of strong demand that’s been consistently outstripping government projections. Corn exports were lifted 100 million bushels to a record 3.3 billion bushels, up 15% from 2024-25 (see table of additional key USDA report figures below).
“Export sales and inspection data continued to show robust foreign demand during January and imply total shipments during the September-January period will most likely exceed 1.3 billion bushels,” USDA said in the report.
U.S. 2025-26 ending corn stocks were lowered a corresponding 100 million bushels, to an estimated 2.127 billion bushels, which would still mark a seven-year high and a 37% jump from 2024-25. The global balance sheet also tightened, with 2025-26 ending stocks trimmed 0.7% to 289 million metric tons (11.4 billion bushels). Brazil’s corn crop was left unchanged at 131 MMT, despite expectations for an increase.
Trade focus the rest of the week will shift partly to demand metrics, including the Energy Information Administration’s weekly ethanol production update later this morning. Weekly export sales are scheduled for Thursday.
Ethanol production plunged in late January after a major storm and frigid temperatures hampered transportation and prompted distillers to scale back operations. A week ago, EIA said ethanol production plunged to an average of 956,000 barrels per day during the week ended January 30, down 14% from the previous week and the lowest weekly average since April 2024.
Record rallies and extreme volatility in gold and silver markets recently should serve as a warning to farmers: brace for more volatility of your own amid geopolitical uncertainty and ever-present weather risks as planting season looms. Additionally, the corn market’s February rally may look enticing, but it’s rare for the market to peak this early in the year, analyst Bryce Knorr says.
The following tables summarize several closely-followed USDA figures from Tuesday’s report:
Soybean traders shrug off USDA, focus on China
March soybeans fell 0.75 cents to $11.2175 overnight after surging 11.75 cents Tuesday to $11.2250, the contract’s fifth advance in the past six days and its highest close since December 4. New-crop November futures were unchanged at $11.0650, boosting the soybean-corn ratio to about 2.42, its highest level since late November.
Soybeans saw a corrective pullback overnight but remain in a sharp uptrend from three-month lows posted in mid-January, with March futures on track for a sixth consecutive close above both 10- and 100-day SMAs ($10.9325 and $10.8450, respectively). Prices may be in for a few days of sideways consolidation as the market digests the past week’s rally, with a three-day holiday weekend looming.
For March futures, upside targets to watch include last week’s two-month intraday high at $11.3775, as well as the December high at $11.4975 and the November high at $11.7250. Near-term support includes this week’s low at $11.06 and the $11 area.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price rose 11.75 cents Tuesday to about $10.5625. Tuesday’s average was about 66.25 cents below March futures, widening from 65.25 cents a week earlier.
March soybean meal rose 10 cents to $300.90 per ton after adding $3 Tuesday, the contract’s fourth gain in the past five days. March soyoil rose 3 points to 57.30 cents per pound after touching a contract high overnight. On Tuesday, soyoil rose 1% Tuesday to 57.27, the market’s highest close since September 2023, based on the most-active contract.
Soybeans rallied Tuesday despite a larger-than-expected boost to USDA’s estimate for Brazil’s soybean crop and another increase to the outlook for global ending stockpiles. The report was otherwise uneventful and shrugged off as trade continued to fixate on hopes for additional soybean purchases from China and the prospect of higher biofuels mandates.
USDA raised its 2025-26 Brazil soybean production forecast by 2 MMT, or 1.1%, to 180 MMT (6.61 billion bushels), a 5% jump over 2024-25 and a record for the third time in the past four years.
“Prospects for Brazil’s soybean crop remain strong, as most areas enter harvest,” USDA analysts said in a separate report Tuesday. “Reports of positive crop conditions have been nearly ubiquitous, and early harvest reports indicate above-average yields in most states. Additionally, recent state-level reporting indicates higher area than previous estimates.”
USDA left its 2025-26 soybean export forecast unchanged at 1.575 billion bushels, a 13-year low, and kept U.S. ending stocks steady at 350 million bushels, a six-year high. China stepped up purchases of U.S. soybeans the past two months and is “considering” buying more, according to a social post by President Trump last week. But USDA indicated that any new China purchases for the U.S. would merely shift demand from other global buyers to South America.
“China is reported to be considering buying more U.S. soybeans,” USDA said in the Supply and Demand report. “Global soybean import demand is nearly unchanged from last month, so therefore if China bought more from the United States, global soybean exports will likely be shifted with more U.S. shipments to China and less to other markets.”
Essentially, USDA confirmed “this is a ‘zero-sum’ game, with one importer traded for another,” StoneX analyst Bevan Everett said in a report.
Soybean exports are down sharply after China avoided buying U.S. beans for about half of 2025 amid a protracted trade dispute with the Trump administration. Last week, in a Truth Social post, Trump indicated China is “considering” buying another 8 MMT of U.S. soybeans in addition to the 12 MMT (441 million bushels) the country recently purchased as part of a trade truce.
Wheat tests trendline resistance overnight
March SRW wheat rose 3.5 cents to $5.3175 after easing 0.5 cent Tuesday to $5.2825, the contract’s third straight daily decline.
Wheat technicals strengthened marginally overnight as March futures pushed above the 10-day SMA ($5.3150) and briefly tested a downtrend line drawn from a two-month intraday high of $5.4475 posted January 30. A move above trendline resistance just under $5.35 could lead to a test of last week’s high at $5.3925. Downside levels to watch include last week’s intraday low at $5.2225, along with the 20- and 50-day SMAs ($5.25 and $5.2225, respectively).
March HRW wheat rose 3.75 cents to $5.3425 after gaining 1.75 cents Tuesday to $5.3050 in a modest rebound from a two-week closing low Monday. March spring wheat rose 2.25 cents to $5.7050 after dropping 2.25 cents Tuesday.
Winter wheat futures edged higher overnight after a muted reaction to mixed USDA’s Supply and Demand numbers, which appeared to carry few reasons lift the market out of a two-week downtrend.
USDA unexpectedly raised its outlook for 2025-26 U.S. wheat ending stocks, boosting its forecast by 5 million bushels to 931 million bushels, up almost 9% from 2024-25. Analysts expected a cut of about 8 million bushels. Domestic use was lowered 5 million bushels to 1.128 billion bushels, the second consecutive monthly decline.
But estimated global ending stocks shrank 0.3% to 277.5 MMT (10.2 billion bushels), contrary to expectations for little change. Global stocks are still on track to expand to a five-year high. Among top wheat producers, Argentina’s estimated crop was raised 1.1% to a record 27.8 MMT.
Stock index futures firm ahead of key jobs data
Stock index futures climbed slightly overnight ahead of today’s January Employment Report, which is expected to show continued modest jobs growth to start the year. Economists expect nonfarm payrolls grew by 50,000 to 55,000 last month, similar to a December gain of 50,000. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.4%.
Futures based on the S&P 500 and the Dow industrials each rose about 0.1%, while Nasdaq-100 futures added less than 0.2%. The U.S. dollar index eroded about 0.1% to its weakest level since the end of January, extending a recent slide to four days.
March WTI crude oil futures rallied over 2% to $65.34 per barrel, near a six-month high, amid ongoing concern a potential attack on Iran could disrupt global supplies. Precious metals resumed a recent upswing, with gold futures jumping 2% to over $5,131 per ounce and silver futures surging over 6%.