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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.
What we’re watching
Market volatility is the bouncing ball that farmers can’t control. But paying close attention to the U.S. dollar, geopolitics, China, USDA’s January reports and South American weather can help inform marketing decisions and potentially offer relief from tight margins. Advisor Naomi Blohm walks you through her 2026 watch list.
Corn’s push above $4.50 may be short-lived
March corn futures fell 3 cents to $4.47 per bushel late in overnight trading after shedding 1 cent Friday to $4.50, halting a three-day winning streak. The contract faded after touching $4.53, the highest intraday price since November 14. Futures still added 6.25 cents last week for a second straight weekly advance.
Futures turned in a soft close to end last week and extended weakness overnight amid profit-taking following last week’s climb to six-week highs. Despite Friday’s fade, corn technicals strengthened last week, with March futures posting the contract’s first close above the key $4.50 level in eight weeks and notching four straight settlements above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), currently around $4.46.
However, the market has struggled to sustain rallies above $4.50 during the last half of the year, and it remains to be seen whether bulls can generate enough buying interest during another holiday-shortened week for a test of or push above last week’s high. The recent rally may also spur a pickup in farmer sales that could stymie further gains. Upside levels to watch include the November intraday high at $4.57.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price fell almost 1 cent Friday to slightly under $4.0575, up about 6.5 cents for the week.
Corn joined a broad downturn in grain markets overnight amid growing hopes for a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine that would minimize potential for disruptions to Black Sea grain shipping. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky met with President Trump over the weekend and earlier today said “significant progress” had been made toward ending the war, Reuters reported.
The corn market’s rally since mid-December been fueled by strengthening technicals and bullish demand dynamics, most notably a record export pace. Renewed strength in soybeans and wheat markets has also driven a generally stronger tone across the grain complex.
However, grain markets could be susceptible to profit-taking before the end of the year, so farmers should consider taking advantage of any rallies because they could be short-lived. Rally potential remains limited by a heavy supply outlook for 2026 following a likely-record U.S. crop. Also, South American appeared poised for another large harvest amid mostly crop-friendly weather.
“We’ll not likely see a return to normal trade volume until we get to the first full week of January,” StoneX analyst Arlan Suderman said in a report Friday. “That leaves thinly traded choppy action, unless a headline emerges to pull the ‘algos’ and few remaining traders in the same direction to create a larger move.”
Potential market-movers to watch for this week include another round of weekly export sales data from USDA, which on Wednesday is scheduled to report sales for the week ended December 18. U.S. markets will be closed Thursday for New Year’s Day.
Last Tuesday, USDA said net U.S. corn sales for the week ended December 11 totaled 1.744 million metric tons (68.7 million bushels), up 18% from the previous week. Sales commitments for 2025-26 to date (including accumulated exports) now total 1.804 billion bushels, up 30% from the same period in 2024-25.
Perhaps the biggest market influencer over the near term looms January 12, when USDA is scheduled to report its Crop Production Annual Summary and Supply and Demand updates, along with several other reports. The Annual Summary will include “final” 2025 estimates for U.S. corn and soybean production and yields, but could be revised later in the year.
Traders will continue to monitor demand metrics with weekly USDA export inspections numbers expected later this morning. Corn shipments for 2025-26 to date were running 68% abive the same period in 2024-25. Export data last week continued to highlight robust corn demand from Mexico, South Korea and other major importers.
From expanded deductions to state-specific rules, there are several tax law updates that farmers need to understand because it could help them save money and optimize tax strategies. Asking about the 100% bonus depreciation deduction, for example. Get the rundown from Farm Business Farm Management experts.
Hopes for long-awaited bottom in soybean market
March soybeans fell 8 cents to $10.6450 overnight after dropping 4 cents Friday to $10.7250, erasing gains from an early upswing that sent the contract as high as $10.8250. Futures still jumped 13 cents last for the market’s first weekly advance in four weeks.
Soybeans futures’ weak Friday close carried forward into overnight activity at the start of what’s likely to be a thinly-traded week. Technicals appeared to stabilize last week, boosting hopes for a long-awaited bottom following the recent nosedive. March futures had tumbled nearly 10%, from a 17-month high at $11.7250 in mid-November. But prices are up about 7 cents from an eight-week low at $10.5725 on December 19. Holding that low will be one key to establishing a bottom.
Recent price-friendly technical developments include March futures closing above the 10- and 200-day SMAs ($10.6850 and roughly $10.6575, respectively) the past two days. A push above the 100-day SMA ($10.8450) could fuel further upside.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price fell about 4 cents Friday to $9.8750, still up 9 cents for the week.
Soybean futures climbed in light-volume trading last week behind a combination of technically-driven corrective buying and hopes for additional Chinese business. But bearish weather in Brazil likely will limit rallies, with strong rain coverage expected for key growing areas over the next 10 days. Brazil’s harvest will begin next month, and the country is widely expected to produce another record soybean harvest in 2026.
“Support remains strong for rains to cover most of Brazil” over the next two weeks, Commodity Weather Group said in a December 24 report. The heaviest totals are expected to shift from south to north in Brazil, “limiting risks for excess totals,” the forecaster said. Northern Brazil may soon turn drier over the short-term, but the six-to-10-day outlook indicates rains “recharge moisture again.”
Harvest of early-planted soybeans in Brazil is underway, “although more significant harvest momentum will take several more weeks to unfold,” Suderman wrote Friday. “Rains have been good across the bulk of Brazil for this growing season – excessive at times – putting production estimates at record highs” and indicating the country could harvest a crop in excess of 6.5 billion bushels, he said.
“It’s been much drier in Argentina, but timely rains continue to support high crop ratings there as well, although it is still early in their growing season,” he added. “Yet, China is buying, and prices are well off their highs, supporting a return of some demand.”
Traders this week will continue to watch for any USDA confirmation of China soybean purchases. Last week, USDA reported net U.S. soybean sales for the week ended December 11 at 2.396 MMT (88 million bushels), up 54% from the previous week and a marketing-year high.
China was the week’s top buyer at 1.383 MMT, bringing the country’s total reported soybean purchases for 2025-26 to slightly over 6 MMT (223 million bushels). That’s about half of the 12 MMT the White House has said China would buy by the end of February. But analysts believe China’s purchase total by now is actually at least 8 MMT when factoring in sales that haven’t yet been confirmed by USDA.
China’s shunning of U.S. soybeans much of this year hit the market hard, but it could have been much worse. Fortunately, the U.S. grain industry has been diversifying its export customers in recent years, which has meant other countries have helped pick up some of the slack, according to a recent study by Purdue University ag economists.
For soybean farmers, “the result has been a manageable decline rather than a crisis,” the economists wrote. “For corn, this means robust growth rather than modest gains.”
Wheat futures break seven-week losing streak
March SRW wheat fell 3.75 cents to $5.1525 after slipping 2.75 cents Friday to $5.19, the contract’s first decline in the past six days. Futures gained 9.25 cents last week to break a seven-week losing streak and continue to show signs of putting in a near-term bottom. March SRW futures are up almost 12 cents from a contract low at $5.04 on December 17.
March HRW wheat fell 5.25 cents to $5.2825 and March spring wheat fell 2 cents to $5.7725.
Selling pressure in the wheat market extended overnight on easing worries over potential disruptions to Black Sea grain shipping. While a peace agreement appears closer, analysts remain skeptical whether anything sustainable will emerge anytime soon.
“Meanwhile, the risks for commodities in the region continue to rise, which is why we’ve seen war premium slowly creep back into the energy and grain and oilseed markets in recent days,” Suderman wrote Friday.
“Russia continued to pummel Ukrainian grain and oilseed export infrastructure over Christmas, while Ukraine continues to target vessels in the shadow fleet moving Russian crude oil that is funding the war, while also attacking energy infrastructure deep inside of Russia,” he added. “Commodities remained free of much of the influence of the war the past several years, but they’re increasingly becoming the focus.”
The wheat market has displayed some signs U.S. exports may be picking up following a recent dip, perhaps reflecting renewed interest among bargain-seeking buyers following the market’s recent downdraft. Recent weakness in the U.S. dollar may also be encouraging buyers, with the U.S. dollar index recently dropping to a three-month low.
Last week, USDA reported net U.S. wheat sales during the week ended December 11 at 432,600 MT (15.9 million bushels), up 13% from the previous week. Mexico was the week’s top buyer at 161,400 MT. For 2025-26 to date, U.S. wheat sales commitments (including accumulated exports) total 725.8 million bushels, up 22% from the same period in 2024-25 and a nine-year high.
Stock index futures, gold turn lower overnight
Stock index futures slipped overnight as investors readied for another holiday-shortened week that will include the release of the Federal Reserve’s minutes from its December 9-10 meeting. The market is entering its “Santa Claus rally” period, the roughly one-week time frame when the S&P 500 index has averaged a gain of over 1% over the past 75 years.
Futures based on the S&P 500 index fell about 0.2%, while Nasdaq-100 futures dropped almost 0.4% and Dow futures held steady. The U.S. dollar index rose less than 0.1% as the market extended a modest recovery from a drop near three-month lows last week.
February WTI crude oil futures surged over 2% to $57.96 per barrel as the market watched for possible supply disruptions in the Middle East. Gold futures tumbled over 1.7% to about $4,473 per ounce amid profit-taking following the market’s rally to record highs last week.