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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.
What we’re watching
Questions over Brazil’s second corn crop, known as the safrinha, are bubbling up, Total Farm Marketing’s Naomi Blohm says. The safrinha is typically planted in late February and early March, shortly after Brazil farmers harvest soybeans. “Can the Brazil corn crop afford to lose any production? Not really. And that matters to global corn production.” Read Blohm’s latest Ag Marketing IQ post.
Corn lifted by dollar weakness, E15 hopes
March corn futures rose 2.75 cents to $4.3275 per bushel in late overnight trading after adding 3.5 cents Wednesday to $4.30, a high close for the week. Prices faded Wednesday after touching $4.3325, the contract’s highest intraday price since January 12.
Corn futures extended the past two weeks’ rally overnight despite as traders shrugged off Wednesday's late pullback, which trimmed about half the day’s gains. Overnight, March futures pushed above the 20-day simple moving average (SMA), currently $4.3150, and are poised to close above that level for the first time since January 9. A push above Wednesday’s high at $4.3325 could further spur the fund short covering that’s helped propel the past week’s gains.
Speculators this week have pared back a still-large bearish bet in the corn market this week, with recent gains driven in part by funds buying back short positions. Since Friday, funds have bought a net 55,000 corn futures contracts, based on StoneX estimates.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price rose almost 4 cents Wednesday to just over $3.9350. Wednesday’s average was about 36.5 cents below March futures, narrowing from 37.25 cents a week earlier.
Corn futures strengthed overnight as recent dollar weakness fueled strength across the grain and soy complex amid ideas a weaker currency could encourage export demand. The U.S. dollar index is hovering near a four-year low. Grains have also found support from wider strength across the commodity spectrum, with crude oil and metals extending rallies.
President Trump’s support for E15 gasoline also lifted futures. In a Tuesday speech in Iowa, Trump reaffirmed his support for permanent, nationwide sales of E15, saying he is “trusting” House Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Leader John Thune will finalize a legislative deal that would enable such sales. Trump said Congress is “very close to getting it done” and promised to sign any legislation without delay once it reaches his desk.
Greater use of ethanol in the nation’s gasoline supply could provide a longer-term demand boost that may help whittle down heavy supplies from a record harvest. Based on current motor gasoline usage, a 5% increase in the national average blend rate would use 2.4 billion more bushels of corn for domestic ethanol, according to the National Corn Growers Association.
Trump’s remarks came less than a week after legislation providing for the year-round sale of E15, which has a higher ethanol content than the widely-available E10 gasoline, was left out of a House spending package. Instead, Republican U.S. lawmakers plan to create a task force to study potential year-round sales of higher-ethanol E15 gasoline blends in the U.S.
USDA’s weekly export sales report today may show a pullback in corn purchases from a five-year high reached earlier this month.
Analysts expect net U.S. corn sales for the week ended January 22 at 1 million metric tons (MMT) to 2.5 MMT (39.4 million to 98.4 million bushels), based on a Reuters survey. The previous week’s sales totaled 4.01 MMT, the highest weekly figure in nearly five years.
Sales continue to run at a pace that would exceed USDA’s record full-year export projection, 3.2 billion bushels. For 2025-26 to date, sales commitments (including accumulated exports) totaled 2.207 billion bushels, up 34% from the same period in 2024-25.
U.S. ethanol production continued to pull back from a record high earlier this month but remained above year-ago levels, reflecting cheap corn and strong exports fueling distillers’ margins.
Ethanol production averaged 1.114 million barrels per day during the week ended January 23, down 0.4% from the previous week and down from a record 1.196 million barrels the week ended January 9, the Energy Information Administration reported Wednesday. Production over the past four weeks averaged 1.132 million barrels a day, up 5% from the same period a year earlier.
Exports last week tumbled 28% to an average of 157,000 barrels per day from the prior week’s 218,000 average, which was the second-highest on record. Ethanol stocks last week fell 1.3% to 25.4 million barrels, down 1.3% from a year earlier.
As U.S. farmers face up to what’s shaping up to be another difficult year, the “Stockdale Paradox” could help light a path forward. Named after former Vietnam POW and Admiral Jim Stockdale, the paradox teaches the importance of balancing optimism with the resolve to confront harsh realities. “We need to focus on the resolve to make tough decisions, like getting costs under control and right-sizing operations,” economist David Widmar says in an Ag Marketing IQ In Depth video.
Soybeans extend rally ahead of export sales
March soybeans rose 8.25 cents to $10.8325 overnight after gaining 7.75 cents Wednesday to $10.75, the contract’s highest close since December 24. November futures rose 5.75 cents to $10.9575, keeping the soybean-to-corn ratio near an eight-week high around 2.39.
Soybeans started strong Wednesday, jumping to six-week intraday highs before slashing over half the initial gains by the close. Nonetheless, the market’s strengthening technical posture allowed prices to extend a two-week rally overnight, with March futures on track to close higher for the third straight day.
March futures failed to close above the 100-day SMA ($10.8250) on Wednesday but may make another attempt today. A push above that level, as well as Wednesday’s high at $10.8475, could lead to a test of the 50-day SMA ($10.87) and the $10.90 area. Near-term support is seen at the 200-day SMA ($10.6925). Futures have rallied about 44 cents from a mid-January low at $10.3775.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price rose over 9 cents Wednesday to $10.0775, near a seven-week high. Wednesday’s average was about 67.25 cents below March futures, narrowing from 70.5 cents a week earlier.
March soybean meal rose $2.20 to $300.00 per ton. March soyoil rose 26 points to 54.57cents per pound after fading from five-month intraday high Wednesday to end with a small loss.
The soy complex remains underpinned by hopes for higher federal biofuels mandates, with President Trump expressing support for the industry in his Iowa speech Tuesday. Last week, reports circulated the administration was weighing sharply higher biodiesel blending targets.
USDA’s export sales update today likely will confirm additional China purchases. Net U.S. soybean sales for the week ended January 22 are expected at 400,000 MT to 1.8 MMT (14.7 million to 66.1 million bushels). The previous week’s sales totaled 2.446 MMT, up 92% from the average for the previous four weeks and a marketing-year high. Sales were again led by China at 1.304 MMT.
Soybean exports continue to lag after trade tensions with the U.S. prompted China to stop buying U.S. beans for much of 2025. U.S. export commitments for 2025-26 to date (including accumulated exports) total 1.214 billion bushels, down 22% from the same period last year.
Based on last week’s export sales report, USDA-confirmed China purchases for 2025-26 total about 9.42 MMT (346 million bushels), though the country is believed to have already met a 12-MMT target touted by the White House, when factoring in unreported sales. That would still leave China’s purchase commitments down sharply from roughly 20 MMT at this point in 2024-25.
China’s recent buying spree has supported soybean futures, but the bullish impact is waning as South America’s supplies increasingly fill the pipeline. China has ramped up orders for Brazilian soybean cargoes after meeting an initial purchase target that was part of a trade truce with the U.S. Over the past week, importers have booked at least 25 cargoes of Brazil soybean beans for loading mainly in March and April, Bloomberg reported.
Elsewhere, weather in Brazil remains largely favorable for crop development and harvest is accelerating. But extreme heat and dryness in Argentina threatens to trim corn and soybean yields.
With temperatures soaring near 104 degrees Fahrenheit in recent days, Argentina’s key growing regions are in urgent need of rain, but significant relief is not forecast until February, Reuters reported. “This heat wave will reduce corn yields,” meteorologist German Heinzenknecht told Reuters. He downward revisions to production estimates are likely, with early-planted corn being the most affected.
Wheat futures climb to eight-week highs
March SRW wheat rose 5.75 cents to $5.4175 after earlier reaching $5.43, the contract’s highest intraday price since $5.4450 on December 2. A gain today would be the contract’s fifth advance in the past six days.
Wheat technicals strengthened Wednesday after March SRW futures’ push above some key long-term SMAs sparked fund short covering. March futures closed above both the 50- and 100-day SMAs (currently $5.2475 and $5.3075) for the first time since November 18. Bulls may now be targeting the $5.45 area, near late-November highs, and $5.50.
March HRW wheat rose 4 cents to $5.4625 after jumping 9.5 cents Wednesday to $5.4225, the highest close in over two months. March spring wheat rose 3.5 cents to $5.7750 after adding 2.25 cents Wednesday.
Wheat futures extended gains overnight amid ideas dollar weakness will lead to improved export demand. Those hopes have combined with stronger technicals to spur a round of speculator short covering in SRW and HRW markets this week. Funds bought a net 8,000 SRW futures contracts on Wednesday, based on analyst estimates.
However, sustained rallies will likely run into resistance from a bearish global supply outlook. Last weekend’s ice and freezing temperatures may have caused some winterkill to a small fraction of winter wheat acreage, but the actual impact won’t be known for months. Meantime, rallies continue to be viewed as selling opportunities.
USDA’s weekly export sales update may reflect modest improvement from a late-2025 slump. Analysts see net U.S. wheat sales for the week ended January 22 at 275,000 MT to 600,000 MT (10.1 million to 22 million bushels), based on the Reuters survey. The previous week’s sales totaled 618,100 MT, nearly quadruple the previous week’s sales and a nine-week high.
For 2025-26 to date, U.S. wheat sales commitments (including accumulated exports) totaled 767.5 million bushels, up 18% from the same period in 2024-25 and 85% of USDA’s full-year target of 900 million bushels.
Wheat producers are facing one of the industry’s most challenging price environments in recent history amid record global production, uncertainty over trade policies and intense international competition. That makes it crucial to maintain strong trade relations and accessible global markets, ag economists Mark Welch and Tood Hubbs said in the Southwest Farm Press.
Stocks poised to open firmer, gold hits another record
Stock index futures rose overnight, a day after the S&P 500 index surpassed the 7,000 level for the first time, as investors weighed mixed earnings results from major technology companies and the outlook for interest rates. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve’s policy-setting committee held its benchmark short-term rate unchanged, as expected.
Futures based on the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq-100 both climbed over 0.2%, while futures based on the Dow industrials added about 0.1%. The U.S. dollar index was little changed as the benchmark stabilized following its drop near a four-year low earlier this week.
March WTI crude oil futures jumped $1.47 to $64.68 per barrel after rallying near a six-month high on escalating concern a potential military attack on Iran could disrupt global supplies.
Gold futures surged over 4% and hit an all-time high above $5,586 per ounce, a record for an eighth consecutive day, as heightened geopolitical tensions continued to drive safe-haven buying. Silver rallied almost 5% to a record above $120 per ounce.