Farmfutures

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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.

What we’re watching

As the Middle East conflict roils global markets, it’s critical farmers tune out the “noise” and stay laser-focused on their game plans, Advanced Trading’s Brian Basting says. “You’re going to be hit with news every single day now, and the war only adds to that noise, and the market is extremely volatile,” he said. “Farmers should reward the market for these rebounds but maintain flexibility.” Basting detailed a few strategies in our latest Ag Marketing IQ In Depth video.

USDA’s big Prospective Plantings report is March 31, but that’s no reason to look past the agency’s next monthly WASDE update Tuesday.

Corn boosted as crude oil rally extends

May corn futures rose 1.75 cents to $4.4550 per bushel late in overnight trading after slipping 2.75 cents Wednesday to $4.4375, the contract’s lowest close in almost a week. December futures rose 1.75 cents to $4.72, near an 8 ½-month high at $4.7425 Tuesday.

Corn rebounded from Wednesday’s declines and moved back toward the middle of the past week’s range overnight as prices consolidated ahead of next week's USDA report. May futures remain in a seven-week uptrend after holding support around the 20-day simple moving average, currently just under $4.41. But prices face resistance just above $4.50, near Monday’s seven-week high of $4.5250. A close above the 100-day SMA ($4.4575) could encourage bulls.

Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price fell 3.5 cents Wednesday to about $4.0225. Wednesday’s average was about 41.5 cents below May futures, narrowing from just over 44 cents a week earlier.

Corn futures firmed overnight as grain markets regained some war premium and crude oil futures extended a rally to 8 ½-month highs. April WTI crude futures jumped nearly 3% and briefly climbed over $78 per barrel. But prices kept within recent ranges as traders waited for several key USDA reports later this month.

USDA’s monthly Supply and Demand report Tuesday isn’t expected to show any major revisions to grain and soybean balance sheets. The agency’s annual Prospective Plantings and quarterly Grain Stocks reports March 31 likely will carry a bigger market impact.

“Corn prices look to remain range-bound unless there is an unexpected deterioration in supply or stronger-than-expected demand,” said Todd Hubbs, a crop marketing specialist and assistant professor at Oklahoma State University. “The next major round of USDA reports in late March will set the tone for prices.”

USDA’s weekly export sales report today may reflect a continuing slowdown in corn sales from highs reached in January, though shipments are still running at a record pace.

Analysts expect net U.S. corn sales for the week ended February 26 at 600,000 metric tons to 1.6 million metric tons (23.6 million to 63 million bushels), based on a Reuters survey. The previous week’s sales totaled 685,800 MT, down 56% from the four-week average and a seven-week low.

U.S. ethanol production dropped for a second consecutive week, suggesting the industry may be heading into a seasonal decline related to planned plant maintenance.

Ethanol production averaged 1.085 million barrels per day during the week ended February 27, down 1.6% from the previous week and a four-week low, the Energy Information Administration reported Wednesday. Over the past four weeks, production averaged 1.109 million barrels per day, up 2.2% from the same period in 2025.

Weekly ethanol exports jumped 54% to an average of 217,000 barrels per day, the highest in five weeks. Ethanol stocks rose 2.7% to 26.3 million barrels but were down 3.5% from a year earlier.

Analysts noted that the ethanol industry’s corn use so far in 2025-26 has been running below the pace needed to hit USDA’s full-year target of 5.6 billion bushels. That prompted StoneX to cut its forecast by 50 million bushels to 5.55 billion bushels.

“A very close eye will be kept on the degree of the seasonal decline in production relative to recent years, which typically takes place from mid-March through mid-May for annual plant maintenance,” StoneX analyst Randy Mittelstaedt said in a report. “Differences in the seasonal slowdown relative to recent years could have an impact on further revisions to our annual corn for ethanol usage estimate going forward.”

Also Wednesday, USDA reported private exporter corn sales totaling 125,000 MT (4.92 million bushels) to “unknown destinations” for delivery during the 2025-26 marketing year. Wednesday’s announcement came a day after USDA reported private exporter corn sales totaling 196,000 MT to an unnamed buyer, also for 2025-26 delivery.

Soybeans supported by soyoil rally

March soybeans rose 3.25 cents to $11.7275 overnight after easing 1 cent Wednesday to $11.6950. November soybeans rose 2.75 cents to $11.3325.

Futures held within Wednesday’s range overnight, and while prices remain near 21-month highs hit earlier this week, upside momentum appears to have slowed. May futures face resistance around $11.75 and at Monday’s high of $11.85. Initial downside support comes in at the 10-day SMA ($11.6325) and Monday’s low ($11.5750).

Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price fell almost 1.75 cents Wednesday to $10.9575. Wednesday’s average was about 73.75 cents below May futures, narrowing from 80.5 cents a week earlier.

March soybean meal fell 90 cents to $309 per ton after slumping 1.5% Wednesday to end near a two-week low. March soyoil rose 58 points to 64.17 cents per pound after earlier reaching a 30-month intraday high at 64.39 cents.

Soybeans joined an overnight upswing in grain futures amid ongoing support from rallying crude oil and soyoil prices and concern over Iran war disruptions. Expectations for scaled-up biofuels blending mandates and a smaller outlook for Brazil’s crop also added support.

Tuesday’s USDA report will be watched for any adjustments to the U.S. and global soybean balance sheets, as well as any changes to South American production. But the market is “largely focused” on the March 31 plantings and stocks reports, StoneX analyst Arlan Suderman wrote.

Also, proposed biofuels blending mandates from the Environmental Protection Agency are expected by the end of March, and President Trump is expected to meet with China’s Xi Jinping around April 1.

“The two are expected to sign a trade deal,” Suderman said in a report Wednesday. “Will soybeans and other commodities be a part of that deal? We don't know, and that has the markets marking time over the next several weeks. Meanwhile, good rains in the forecast for dry areas of the Plains and Midwest make the path of least resistance lower in this waiting period.”

USDA’s export sales update today may show some improvement in soybean numbers, which have been sluggish in recent weeks as China’s purchasing pace tapered off.

Net U.S. soybean sales for the week ended February 26 are seen at 300,000 MT to 1 MMT (11 million to 36.7 million bushels), based on the Reuters survey. The previous week’s sales were 407,100 MT, down 30% from the four-week average. China’s purchases for the week totaled just 75,500 MT.

Despite a flurry of buying since an October trade truce, U.S. soybean sales to China are still down sharply from recent years’ levels. For 2025-26 through February 19, sales commitments to China totaled about 392 million bushels, about half the level from the same period in 2024-25.

Wheat rebounds from three-day slide

March SRW wheat rose 5.25 cents to $5.7350 after shedding 5.75 cents Wednesday to $5.6825, the contract’s third straight daily drop and its lowest close since February 19. Futures have fallen about 30 cents from an eight-month intraday high at $6.0375 posted early Monday.

March HRW wheat rose 7.25 cents to $5.7975, down from an eight-month intraday high hit early Monday at $5.9525. March spring wheat rose 3.75 cents to $6.13, down from Monday’s six-month intraday high at $6.1675.

Prices gained overnight as rallying crude oil supported grain markets, encouraging continued short covering in wheat futures. Concerns over slumping crop ratings in Plains winter wheat country also provided underlying support, though the region is expected to receive rainfall this week.

Wheat traders will watch for planting estimates from Statistics Canada expected today. The agency is expected to forecast Canada’s 2026 all-wheat plantings at 26.4 million acres, down from 26.9 million acres in 2025.

Net weekly U.S. wheat sales may range from 200,000 MT to 500,000 MT (7.35 million to 18.4 million bushels), based on the Reuters survey. The previous week’s sales totaled 243,000 MT, down 43% from the four-week average and a six-week low.

Declining state-level crop ratings have fueled concerns Southern Plains drought may pinch yields. In Kansas, 58% of the winter wheat crop was rated “good” or “excellent” at the start of the week, down from 61% a month earlier, according to the state’s Department of Agriculture. In Colorado, the good-to-excellent rating fell to 39% from 57% a month earlier, while Oklahoma’s combined figure fell to 19% from 23%.

Elsewhere, European Union soft wheat exports from July 1 through March 1 reached 15.77 MMT (579.4 million bushels), up 9.4% from the same period a year earlier, based on European Commission Data. The commission also hiked its 2025-26 EU common wheat production estimate by 0.1% to 134.4 MMT (4.94 billion bushels).

Longer-term outlook turns drier for Plains

Light to moderate rains will move across most of the Corn Belt and Central and Southern Plains today through Sunday, based on the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Most of Iowa and Wisconsin could receive 0.5 inch to 1.5 inches, with similar amounts possible for Indiana and Ohio.

The National Weather Service’s 6-to-14-day outlook, which covers March 10-14, continues to call for above-normal precipitation prospects for the central and eastern U.S., with greatest chances for the eastern Corn Belt. But the 8-to-14-day outlook has turned drier, with precipitation levels near or below normal for the western Corn Belt and Southern Plains.

Stock index futures pressured by oil price surge

Stock index futures were flat to weaker overnight as Treasury bond yields surged to the highest levels in over a month and the Middle East conflict drove a continued rally in crude oil prices.

Futures based on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 indexes were both little changed, while Dow futures were down over 0.2%. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.1%, near five-week highs reached earlier this week.