Don’t miss the latest market commentary from the Farm Futures team. Sign up for the complimentary morning and afternoon market newsletters!
Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.
What we’re watching
China has reportedly purchased roughly 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans in the last three months, meeting a key pledge touted by the Trump administration following last October’s trade truce. This is surely welcome news for U.S. farmers, also a reminder that soybean demand “is now a geopolitical instrument as much as a feed input,” ag economist Wesley Davis says. Davis says the market now faces two big questions.
Corn burdened by bearish USDA data
March corn futures fell 2.25 cents to $4.2250 per bushel in late overnight trading after gaining 4.5 cents last Friday to $4.2475, the contract’s highest close since January 9. Futures still fell 21 cents last week.
Futures extended sideways consolidation overnight after grain markets reopened following Monday’s Martin Luther King Jr. holiday. A little over a week after a USDA-driven sell-off, corn continued to stabilize and work a little higher after March futures touched a five-month low at $4.1725. Holding that low will be key to building support and establishing a near-term bottom, through further downside can’t be ruled out.
“A move in March corn below chart support at $4.19 would give the bears more power and it would also become a selling opportunity,” technical analyst Jim Wyckoff said in a report. “The downside price objective would be $3.95 or below. Technical resistance, for which to place a protective buy stop just above, is seen at $4.30.”
Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price rose about 4.75 cents Friday to $3.87. Friday’s average was about 37.75 cents below March futures, narrowing slightly from 38.5 cents a week earlier.
Outside news grabbed trader focus overnight after President Trump threatened to impose new tariffs on several European countries amid an escalating dispute over Greenland, rattling financial markets and setting Wall Street up for a sharply lower open. The dispute could unnerve grain markets after trade tensions with China last year led to a sharp drop-off in U.S. soybean exports.
Last week’s bearish USDA reports continue to hang over the market and likely will mute rally attempts. U.S. corn yield to 186.5 bushels per acre and boosted 2025 production to 17.021 billion bushels, both records. Still catching up on last week’s USDA data? Read Farm Futures’ recap of the biggest market-moving numbers.
Potential market influencers this week include today’s USDA export inspections report and Friday’s weekly export sales update, both delayed a day by Monday’s holiday. Traders will also continue monitor South American weather, which has been generally favorable for crop development in Brazil but less-so in Argentina.
Last Thursday, USDA reported net U.S. corn sales totaling 1.14 million metric tons (44.9 million bushels) during the week ended January 8, about triple the previous week’s sales but down 10% from the average for the previous four weeks. Sales came in at the upper half of trade expectations and were led by Mexico, at 265,800 MT.
Sales commitments for the 2025-26 marketing year through January 1 (including accumulated exports) totaled 2.049 billion bushels, up 29% from the same period in 2024-25.
Soybean traders eyeing China’s next move
March soybeans fell 1 cent to $10.5675 overnight after adding 4.75 cents Friday to $10.5775, the contract’s third consecutive daily advance and its highest close since January 9. The contract still fell 4.75 cents last week to post its fifth weekly decline in the past seven weeks.
Soybean futures climbed initially following last night’s open before fading to slight losses, though the March contract remains up from a 2 ½-month low of $10.3775 posted a week ago. Technicals have strengthened modestly, with March futures closing above the 10-day simple moving average (SMA) to end last week and rising above the 20-day SMA ($10.58) overnight.
Continued gains could boost hopes the market has formed a double-bottom that includes the $10.38 low hit January 2.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price gained about 5.25 cents Friday to $9.8725. Friday’s average was about 70.5 cents below March futures, narrowing from 72.75 cents a week earlier.
March soybean meal fell 10 cents to $289.90 per ton. March soyoil rose 18 points to 52.79 cents per pound after reaching a four-month high last Friday.
Soybean traders will continue to closely monitor export markets this week following reports China has reached an initial White House purchase target that followed a Beijing-Washington trade truce in October. After avoiding U.S. soybeans for about six months in 2025, China has purchased about 12 MMT (441 million bushels) over the past two months.
China had been hovering close to the target for days and has now booked enough cargoes to meet it, Bloomberg reported, citing traders familiar with the shipments.
China meeting the initial target is surely “welcome news” for U.S. farmers, but also a reminder that soybean demand “is now a geopolitical instrument as much as a feed input,” Wesley Davis, Chief Ag Economist & Partner at Meridian Ag Advisors, said in a LinkedIn post Monday.
The “big questions” now, according to Davis, are: “Will this change U.S. farmer planting decisions for 2026?” he said. And, “will Beijing follow through on the longer-term commitment to buy around 25 MMT annually, or treat this as a one-off gesture in a fragile truce?”
On Thursday, USDA reported net U.S. soybean sales for the week ended January 8 at 2.062 MMT (75.6 million bushels), more than double the previous week’s sales and up 54% from the four-week average. China led buyers at 1.224 MMT, including 132,000 MT.
Soybean futures also gained last week on reports the Trump administration plans to finalize biofuels blending quotas by March. Reuters reported the administration is weighing a proposed mandated biodiesel blending range of 5.2 billion to 5.6 billion gallons in 2026, which would mark a sharp increase over 3.35 billion gallons for 2025. The administration is also dropping a plan to penalize imports of renewable fuels and feedstocks.
Wheat burdened by slumping exports
March SRW wheat fell 4 cents to $5.14. Futures rose 0.75 cent last week, the contract’s third weekly gain in the past four weeks.
Wheat technicals have firmed after March futures closed Friday above the 10- and 20-day SMAs ($5.14 and $5.1350, respectively), bolstering hopes the contract low posted January 2 at $5.0150 will mark a near-term bottom.
March HRW wheat fell 2.25 cents to $5.25. March spring wheat rose 1.5 cents to $5.6650, up from a contract low at $5.6050 last Friday.
Wheat futures remain burdened by stiff export competition, with last Monday’s bearish USDA reports providing additional reminders of ample global supplies. U.S. wheat exports have also extended a recent slide into early 2026, based on USDA’s latest sales update.
USDA said net U.S. wheat sales totaled 156,300 MT during the week ended January 8, up 32% from the previous week but down 21% from average for the previous four weeks.
Exports remain up sharply from last year and on track to hit a five-year high, based on a USDA forecast. For 2025-26 to date, U.S. wheat sales commitments (including accumulated exports) totaled 744.8 million bushels, up almost 16% from the same period in 2024-25 and 83% of USDA’s full-year target of 900 million bushels.
In its Supply and Demand report a week ago, USDA hiked estimated worldwide wheat supplies at the end of 2025-26 by 1.2% to 278.3 MMT (10.2 billion bushels), a five-year high. The increase reflects bigger crops in Argentina and Russia.
Wall Street heading for lower open on Greenland worries
Stock index futures sank sharply overnight after President Trump threatened to impose new tariffs on several European countries amid an escalating dispute over Greenland. In a Truth Social post, Trump said exports from eight European countries, including France and Germany, will face 10% tariffs starting February 1. Those countries oppose Trump’s efforts to control Greenland.
Futures based on the S&P 500 index and the Dow industrials both tumbled about 1.4%, while Nasdaq-100 futures dropped 1.7%. The U.S. dollar index fell 1% to a two-week low.
February WTI crude oil futures rose 62 cents to $60.06 per barrel. Gold futures rallied 3% to a record about $4,735 per ounce as Trump’s Greenland threats spurred safe-haven buying.
What else I’m reading at www.FarmFutures.com this morning:
- Why farmsteads are a hot property trend, thanks to modern technology and connectivity.