Farmfutures

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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.

What we’re watching

July corn futures could symbolize the Last Chance Saloon for farmers hoping to price remaining old-crop grain from fall’s harvest at stronger prices. If that’s the case, it’s a good idea to be ready in case “last call” happens early. The recent crude oil-driven rally lifted prices near $4.90, but remember, the market is still carrying the weight of a 17-billion-bushel harvest. Time to belly up?

Corn follows weaker oil as war concerns ease

May corn futures fell 3.25 cents to $4.5925 per bushel late in overnight trading after gaining 3 cents Tuesday to $4.6250. December futures fell 3.25 cents to $4.8575.

Corn technicals eroded slightly overnight as May futures moved closer to the middle of the month’s trading range, putting prices well below the 10-month high at $4.76 hit March 9. Bears may be aiming for a test of the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and this week’s low, both around $4.5625. A break below those levels could foreshadow a test of last week’s low at $4.4925. Sideways-to-possibly lower action looks likely ahead of the March 31 reports.

Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price rose almost 3.25 cents Tuesday to $4.20. Monday’s average was about 42.5 cents below May futures, narrowing from 43.5 cents a week earlier.

Corn futures followed crude oil lower overnight following reports that the U.S. has handed Iran a plan that could bring the conflict to an end. The moves came after President Trump on Tuesday said that the U.S. is “in negotiations right now” with Iran.

May WTI crude tumbled over $5, or about 6%, to $86.82 per barrel late in overnight trading. Prices have dropped sharply from a brief rally near $120 at the beginning of March, shortly after the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran.

Grain traders continue to eye the Iran war and crude oil while waiting for USDA’s March 31 Prospective Plantings report. Funds retain a massive net-long in corn futures, which could leave the market vulnerable to sharp downside if USDA’s acreage number comes out higher than expected. Weakness in oil prices suggests the war is becoming less of a supportive factor.

“Without the war card in play, the funds are now way too long given the current fundamentals, which could eventually push futures to their recent low,” John Zanker, senior analyst at Farmer’s Keeper Financial, said in a note. However, a lower acreage number Tuesday “which could put a floor under the December contract for a while.”

The plantings report is expected to show a sharp drop in corn acres from a nine-decade high of 98.79 million acres in 2025. Any drop may be magnified because of war-related disruptions to global fertilizer supplies. “The big question is not whether we see corn acres decline in 2026, but rather by how much,” StoneX analyst Arlan Suderman said in a report.

“The spike in nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer values due to the ongoing war in the Middle East have brought this question further into the spotlight, given the significantly greater input needs of corn relative to soybeans,” Suderman added. “But it’s worth keeping in mind that a fair amount of the survey responses for next week’s report were likely collected prior to this spike.”

Private analyst estimates show corn acres dropping anywhere from 3.6% to over 5%. Early this week, AgMarket.Net forecast a 4.5% drop in corn plantings, to 94.4 million acres, citing a stronger price outlook for soybeans. Another advisor, Allendale, estimated U.S. corn plantings at 93.68 million acres, down 5.2% from 2025. In February, USDA forecast corn plantings at 94 million acres.

Later this morning, the Energy Information Administration is scheduled to report weekly ethanol production, exports and stocks. A week ago, EIA reported production averaged 1.093 million barrels per day for the week ended March 13, down almost 3% from a seven-week high at 1.126 million barrels a day the previous week and the lowest weekly average in four months.

USDA’s Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports March 31 come at a particularly sensitive time for markets still rattled by the Middle East war. With the historically most volatile period of the year ahead for grains, it’s a good idea to get ahead of the “spring rush,” Advance Trading’s Brett Mapel says. Consider a few steps now so if the rally resumes, you’re positioned to act.

Soybean market awaits biofuels announcement

May soybeans rose 5 cents to $11.60 overnight after sinking 8.5 cents Tuesday to $11.55, the contract’s lowest close since February 23. Futures are down sharply from a 21-month high near $12.39 posted March 12. November soybeans rose 2.75 cents to $11.5750.

Soybeans generated a modest corrective bounce overnight but retain a neutral-bearish near-term technical posture with May futures extending sideways action following the March 9 selloff that inflicted potentially serious long-term chart damage.

May futures continue to trade under the 10- and 20-day SMAs ($11.7325 and $11.78, respectively). Downside levels to watch include last week’s low at $11.4525 and the $11.40 area.

Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price fell about 8.25 cents Tuesday to $10.81. Tuesday’s average was about 74 cents below May futures, narrowing from 75.25 cents a week earlier.

The soybean market appears to have detached from the day-to-day gyrations in crude, with soy complex prices holding up reasonably well despite today’s sharp oil declines.

Soybeans retain support from prospects for greater biofuels demand as the market awaits the White House’s “Celebration of Agriculture” event Friday, when the administration is expected to announce ramped-up biofuels blending requirements. There’s also a risk of a “buy-rumor, sell-news” effect because soybeans and soyoil have been rallying for months behind these expectations, with funds holding historically large bullish positions in both markets.

Price upside may be limited by expectations from bearish supply fundamentals, including a likely-record Brazil crop and outlook for a sharp increase in U.S. soybean plantings this spring.

The prospect for a large increase in soybean plantings this year, and a subsequent surge in supplies, could limit price upside in new-crop futures. AgMarket.Net forecast a 6% jump in soybean plantings, to 86.1 million acres. Allendale pegged plantings at 85.66 million acres, up 4.44 million acres, or 5.5%, from a six-year low in 2025. In February, USDA came out at 85 million acres.

Wheat pressured by wetter Plains forecast

May SRW wheat fell 8.25 cents to $5.8175 and remains down sharply from a nine-month intraday high of $6.4175 posted March 9. May HRW wheat fell 5.5 cents to $5.9850. May spring wheat fell 5 cents to $6.2625.

Winter wheat futures followed crude oil overnight as the market continued to extract war premium, with expectations for moisture relief for the dry U.S. Plains adding further pressure. The latest 6-to-10 and 8-to-14-day outlooks from the National Weather Service show greater precipitation chances for the Plains and Midwest starting later this month.

Earlier this week, continued erosion in state-level USDA crop ratings further fueled drought concern. Nearly all of Oklahoma, Nebraska and Texas was covered by “moderate” to “extreme” drought as of March 17, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

In Kansas, 46% of the winter wheat crop was rated “good” or “excellent” at the start of this week, down from 52% a week earlier and 56% two weeks earlier, according to the state’s Department of Agriculture. Topsoil moisture across Kansas was rated 60% “short” or “very short,” up from 48% a week earlier, and 43% “adequate.”

Among other states, Colorado’s good-to-excellent reading fell 5 percentage points to 24%, while Oklahoma dropped 4 points to 14% good-to-excellent.

Recent strength in the dollar and U.S. wheat’s relatively high prices on global markets continue to stymie rally attempts.

While the U.S. production outlook seems to be shrinking, the lack of export competitiveness “keeps the price outlook humble,” StoneX analyst Bevan Everett said in a report. U.S. HRW and SRW values “sit at a premium to the point of dissuading some business,” he said.

USDA’s March 31 report is also expected to show a decline in wheat acres, reflecting the market’s protracted price slump that’s squeezed growers.

AgMarket.Net projected 2026 plantings of all U.S. wheat varieties at 44.7 million acres, down from 45.3 million acres in 2025 and the lowest since 2020. The firm cited weak profit margins, noting that winter wheat acres are largely “locked in,” while spring wheat acres are expected to decline.

Allendale said U.S. producers may plant 44.88 million acres to all wheat varieties, which would mark a decline of 423,000 acres from last year. In February, USDA pegged all U.S. wheat plantings at 45 million acres, down 300,000 acres from last year.

Stronger moisture odds through early April

Rain prospects have expanded for the eastern Corn Belt later this week, with 0.5 inch to as much as 2 inches of rain possible for much of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio through Saturday, based on NOAA’s 72-hour outlook. Light scattered rains are possible across the western Corn Belt and Plains but both regions look largely dry.

Improved odds for moisture relief for the Plains and other parts of the central U.S. continue in the longer term outlooks through the first week of April. The National Weather Service’s 6-to-10-day and 8-to-14 day outooks, which cover March 30-April 7, call for above-normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures for most of that period.

Wall Street poised for firm open as oil tumbles

Stock index futures gained overnight as a sharp drop in crude oil prices fueled optimism over an eventual end to the Middle East conflict.

Futures based on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 indexes rose about 0.9% and 1.1%, respectively, while Dow futures also jumped over 1%. The U.S. dollar index eased almost 0.2% as the benchmark extended its pullback from a 10-month high last week.