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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.
What we’re watching
Consumers lost over $12.5 billion to fraud in 2024, up 25% from 2023, according to the Federal Trade Commission. Scammers “are becoming like a business right now,” says Emily McLeod of the Illinois Agricultural Association Credit Union. “We really have to know how to protect ourselves and protect our finances.” Read six pointers to avoid getting scammed.
Corn futures extend corrective bounce
March corn futures rose 2.25 cents to $4.2425 per bushel in late overnight trading after advancing 2.25 cents Wednesday to $4.22, a modest bounce from a steep two-day sell-off to five-month lows. Futures are still down over 20 cents so far this week after ending last week at $4.4575.
Futures extended Wednesday’s corrective rebound as the market attempts to form a bottom following the USDA-driven nosedive to five-month lows. Key near-term support in March futures lies at Tuesday’s low, $4.172, with further support around $4.15 and the contract low at $4.10. Futures have dropped near oversold levels, which may stem further downside for the time being.
Speculators sold heavily in the wake of Monday’s USDA releases but partially reversed those sales Tuesday. Funds bought 10,000 corn futures contracts Tuesday after selling 52,000 contracts Monday, based on StoneX estimates.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price rose about 2.5 cents Wednesday to just over $3.8375. Wednesday’s average was roughly 38.25 below March futures, narrowing slightly from 39 cents a week earlier.
Traders are shifting focus to today’s weekly export sales update and weather in South America as the market continues to digest Monday’s bearish USDA reports. This week’s price slump may stirrig some renewed buying interest among top importers. Any sustained price recovery rests partly on hopes that already strong demand gets stronger, led by a record export pace.
Traders will watch today’s weekly USDA export sales update to see if corn demand bounces back from a late-2025 slide. Early Wednesday, USDA reported private exporter corn sales totaling 136,000 metric tons to South Korea.
Analysts expect net U.S. corn sales for the week ended January 8 at 600,000 MT to 1.4 million metric tons (23.6 million to 55.1 million bushels), based on a Reuters survey. The previous week, sales shrank to 377,600 MT, less than half the prior week’s sales and a marketing year low. Sales commitments for the 2025-26 marketing year through January 1 (including accumulated exports) totaled 2.004 billion bushels, up 30% from the same period in 2024-25.
U.S. ethanol distillers cranked up production to an all-time high last week as cheap corn and strong exports propelled strong margins.
Ethanol production averaged 1.196 million barrels per day during the week ended January 9, up almost 9% from the previous week and topping the previous record, set a month ago, by 65,000 barrels, the Energy Information Administration reported Wednesday. Production over the past four weeks averaged 1.127 million barrels a day, up 2.1% from the same period a year earlier.
Nationwide ethanol stocks rose 3.5% last week to 24.5 million barrels, 2.1% from a year earlier.
Bearish supply implications of Monday’s USDA data likely will limit rally attempts for the near futures. USDA unexpectedly raised its final 2025 average U.S. corn yield estimate by 0.5 bushels per acre to a record 186.5 bushels per acre, and boosted production to a record 17.021 billion bushels, up 14% from 2024.
Check Farm Futures’ recap of Monday’s biggest market-moving numbers.
Could a “North America Strong” mindset be the key to restoring profitability for U.S. farmers? As global competition intensifies and regional economic blocs strengthen, leaning into competitive strengths of partnerships with Mexico and Canada offers a path forward, ag economist David Kohl says. In our latest Ag Marketing IQ In Depth video, Kohl offers a “SWOT” analysis of U.S. ag.
Soybean trade looks for strong crushing numbers
March soybeans rose 0.5 cent to $10.43 overnight after adding 3.75 cents Wednesday to $10.4250, the contract’s first gain in three days. Futures are still down almost 20 cents so far this week after ending last week at $10.6250.
Soybeans continued to generate light corrective buying in the wake of Monday’s USDA-fueled sell-off, which sent March futures to a 2 ½-month low at $10.3775. Continued strength could lead to ideas of a double-bottom that includes the $10.38 low hit January 2. But the market’s technical posture remains weak, which may prompt bears to target the $10.30 area, 2 cents above the October low.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price fell about 10 cents Tuesday to $9.6625. Tuesday’s average was about 72.5 cents below March futures, narrowing from 83.75 cents at the end of 2025.
March soybean meal rose $2.20 to $294.10 per ton after rebounding modestly Wednesday from a three-month low. March soyoil fell 45 points to 50.53 cents per pound after slipping 22 points Wednesday for the market’s first decline in five days. Prices hit a five-week high earlier Wednesday.
Soybeans have garnered some support from recent China business and expectations a record domestic crushing pace will continue in 2026. But rally prospects will be limited by the accelerating harvest of what’s expected to be another record crop in Brazil.
Today’s weekly export sales report likely will confirm additional China purchases of U.S. soybeans, pushing the country closer to a 12-MMT initial target touted by the Trump Administration.
Net U.S. soybean sales for the week ended January 8 are expected at 800,000 MT to 1.8 MMT (29.4 million to 66.1 million bushels), based on the Reuters survey. The previous week’s sales totaled 877,900 MT, down 42% from the four-week average.
USDA-confirmed China purchases for 2025-26 totaled around 7 MMT at the beginning of 2026, but analysts believe the actual figure is at least 10 MMT when factoring in unreported sales. Early Wednesday, USDA reported private exporter soybean sales of 334,000 MT to China for 2025-26.
Despite recent China demand, U.S. exports are still off sharply from last year. In its Supply and Demand report released Monday, USDA slashed its full-year export target by 60 million bushels to 1.575 billion bushels, down 16% from 2024-25 and a 13-year low.
U.S. soybean processors likely continued to run at a record pace in late 2025 to keep pace with growing demand from the biofuels industry.
Soybean crushing in December may have totaled 224.8 million bushels, up from 216 million bushels in November, based on a Reuters survey ahead of the National Oilseed Processors Association’s monthly update, scheduled for release at 11 a.m. CT. A December crushing figure that meets the trade estimate would be up nearly 9% from the same month in 2024.
Strong domestic crushing amid hopes for higher biofuels mandates from the Trump administration offer soybean farmers some reason for demand-driven optimism. On Monday, USDA hiked estimated crushing for 2025-26 by 15 million bushels to 2.57 billion bushels, up 5.1% from 2024-25 and a record for the fifth year in a row.
Elsewhere, Brazil’s National Supply Company, known as Conab, today said it lowered its estimate for the country’s 2026 soybean production by 0.6% to 176.12 MMT (6.47 billion bushels), though that would still be a record crop and up 2.7% from 2025.
Wheat supported by corn market rebound
March SRW wheat rose 4 cents to $5.1650 after gaining 2 cents Wednesday to $5.1250 to halt a four-day losing streak. Technicals have firmed somewhat after March futures overnight pushed above the 10- and 20-day simple moving averages (both about $5.13), fueling short covering amid ideas a bottom may be forming at a contract low at $5.0150 posted January 2.
March HRW wheat rose 5 cents to $5.2725 after rebounding from the contract’s lowest level in over a week and ending with a gain of 2.75 cents to $5.2225. March spring wheat was unchanged at $5.67 after bouncing back from a four-week low.
Wheat futures have gained on spillover strength from the upturn in corn but price upside remains limited by stiff export competition and an abundant global supply outlook illustrated by Monday’s bearish USDA reports.
Additionally, U.S. wheat exports have sagged in recent weeks and today’s sales report may show that trend continued in early 2026.
Net U.S. wheat sales are seen at 100,000 MT to 450,000 MT (3.67 million to 16.5 million bushels). Sales for the week ended January 1 were just 118,700 MT, up 24% from a marketing-year low the previous week but down 55% from the four-week average.
For 2025-26 to date, U.S. wheat sales commitments (including accumulated exports) totaled 739.1 million bushels, up 18% from the same period in 2024-25.
In its Supply and Demand report Monday, USDA boosted estimated U.S. wheat stocks at the end of the 2025-26 marketing year by 25 million bushels to 926 million bushels. On the global front, USDA hiked worldwide wheat supplies at the end of 2025-26 by nearly 3.4 MMT, or 1.2%, to 278.3 MMT (10.2 billion bushels), a five-year high. The increase reflects bigger crops in Argentina and Russia.
Elsewhere, European Union soft wheat exports for the 2025-26 marketing year through January 11 totaled 426.2 million bushels through January 11, up about 1.7% from the same period in 2024-25, European Commission data showed.
Stock index futures up on AI optimism
Stock index futures strengthened overnight after strong quarterly results from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing drove confidence in the AI trade and technology.
Futures based on the S&P 500 index gained almost 0.4% and Nasdaq-100 futures jumped 0.8%, while Dow futures were up less than 0.1%. The U.S. dollar index added 0.1%.
February WTI crude oil futures dropped over $2 to $59.95 per barrel after President Trump said killing of protesters in Iran was ending, easing concerns over military action and potential supply disruptions. Crude futures ended at a three-month high Wednesday.
Gold futures fell 0.3% to about $4,633 per ounce, slipping from Wednesday’s record as geopolitical tensions appeared to pull back.
What else I’m reading at www.FarmFutures.com this morning:
- The One Big Beautiful Bill Act includes a provision allowing for the deferment of capital gains tax payments when selling farmland if certain criteria are met. Attorney Mark Balzarini explains a few important farm sale tax rules to know.