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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.
What we’re watching
Corn rootworms have grown increasingly resistant to pesticides over the years, which is a problem for Midwest farmers. But the nematode is an emerging bio-based solution. Last month, Persistent Biocontrols opened a small facility in Webster City, Iowa, to meet growing demand.
Many farmers in northern New York state know the name Elson Shields by reputation. After all, it was at his lab at Cornell University where insect-killing nematodes were bred to control alfalfa snout beetle. Now, these lethal weapons are taking aim at a scourge of Midwest farmers, corn rootworms, according to American Agriculturalist Editor Chris Torres.
Corn market awaits USDA plantings report
May corn fell 1.5 cents to $4.6750 per bushel late in overnight trading after gaining 7 cents Thursday to $4.69, the contract’s highest settlement since March 11. Futures are up from $4.5850 at the end of last week and poised to break a four-week losing streak. December futures fell 0.5 cent overnight to $4.5250.
Futures may extend a sideways holding pattern as traders watch for tariff policy developments and wait for USDA’s Prospective Plantings report March 31. Technicals have firmed somewhat after May futures on Thursday closed above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA), currently $4.6675, for the first time in a week and prices held support around the 200-day SMA, currently $4.5450. But the market faces near-term resistance at this week’s high of $4.7025.
Corn climbed late this week behind further indications of strong foreign demand. Early Thursday, USDA said net weekly U.S. corn sales for 2024/25 delivery totaled 1.497 million metric tons (58.9 million bushels), up 55% from the previous week and up 45% from the average for the previous four weeks. Sales were at the high end of expectations.
Top buyers last week included Japan, which purchased 487,700 metric tons (MT), and South Korea, which bought 397,200 MT. For the 2024/25 marketing year to date, accumulated U.S. corn exports totaled 31.4 MMT (1.24 billion bushels), up 30% from the same period in 2023/24.
Price gains may be limited by expectations for a jump in U.S. corn plantings this spring.
On Tuesday, S&P Global Commodity Insights said it hiked its estimate for 2025 U.S. corn plantings to 94.3 million acres, up 800,000 acres from the firm’s previous forecast in January and up 3.7 million acres from 2024. S&P Global’s revised forecast is slightly higher than the 94 million acres USDA projected in late February.
At the U.S. Gulf Coast, basis bids for barge-delivered corn and soybeans strengthened Thursday behind export demand and shipping delays on the mid-Mississippi River. Bids for CIF corn barges loaded in March rose 1 cent to 69 cents over May futures. April barge bids rose 2 cents to 68 cents over futures. FOB export premiums for April shipment held steady at around 78 cents over futures.
Slumping export weigh on soybean prices
May soybeans rose 1 cent to $10.14 late in overnight trading as the market extended the sideways trade that’s persisted much of this month. Futures are down from $10.16 at the end of last week and barring an upturn today would close lower for the fourth straight week. November soybeans fell 1.75 cents overnight to $10.0850.
Market technicals continue to lean bearish with May futures in a near five-week downtrend drawn from a four-month intraday high at $10.9250 on February 5. Extended price downside may be limited ahead of USDA’s Prospective Plantings report, which is expected to show a sharp drop in soybean acreage.
Initial support for May futures comes in around last week’s low at $9.94 and a 2 ½-month intraday low of $9.91 posted March 4.
May soybean meal rose $1 to $298.10 per ton. May soybean oil fell 11 points to 42.60 cents per pound. Malaysian palm oil futures fell 0.8% and dropped 4.4% for the week amid slow exports.
Soybean prices have been pressured by slipping U.S. exports and expectations for a large South American crop, along with concerns an escalating trade dispute may hurt foreign demand for U.S. agricultural products.
Exports continued to struggle as global buyers increasingly turned to abundant South American supplies. USDA said net weekly U.S. soybean sales for 2024/25 delivery totaled 352,600 MT (13 million bushels), down 53% from the previous week and down 29% from the average for the previous four weeks. Sales fell short of analysts’ expectations ranging from 400,000 to 900,000 MT.
China led last week’s soybean buyers with purchases totaling 269,900 MT, including 266,100 MT switched from “unknown destinations.” For the marketing year to date, accumulated U.S. soybean exports reached 39.13 MMT, up 10% from the same period in 2023/24. Exports to China, at 20.4 MMT, accounted for 52% of that total.
Despite ongoing trade tensions, China remains a major buyer of U.S. soybeans. During the first two months of 2025, China's soybean imports from the U.S. totaled 9.13 MMT, up 84% compared with the same period in 2024, Reuters reported. But competitive pricing and a trade standoff with the U.S. is expected to boost purchases from Brazil in the months ahead.
"The rise in U.S. soybean imports is mainly due to the Trump effect, where concerns about higher tariffs led to a rush in purchasing," an analyst at Shanghai-based consultancy JCI told Reuters.
At the Gulf Coast, bids for soybean barges loaded in March rose 2 cents to 82 cents over May futures, while April bids also rose 2 cents, to 75 cents over futures, according to Reuters. FOB export premiums for soybeans shipped from the Gulf in April held steady at about 90 cents over May futures.
Disappointing exports pressure wheat
May Chicago SRW wheat fell 0.25 cent to $5.57 late in overnight trading and is little changed from $5.57 at the end of last week. Prices have fallen four consecutive days after rising near a three-week intraday high of $5.7525 on Monday.
May Kansas City wheat rose 0.75 cent to $5.8725. May Minneapolis wheat fell 1 cent to $6.0375 (see charts below).
Wheat futures slipped this week as the U.S. dollar rebounded, though the market retains underlying support from tightening global supplies and concerns over possible weather damage to the winter crop in the U.S. Plains.
Disappointing export numbers contributed to selling pressure. While global wheat stockpiles have tightened after adverse weather hampered production in Europe and Russia, strong crops in other major producers, such as Australia, have picked up the slack.
USDA reported a net weekly U.S. wheat sales decline of 248,800 MT (9.14 million bushels), a marketing-year low and a sharp drop from net sales of over 700,000 MT the previous week. Sales to Vietnam and Indonesia were more than offset by reductions of 272,900 MT from Panama, plus a few other countries. For the marketing year to date, accumulated U.S. wheat exports were still up almost 17% from the same period in 2023/24.
"There is some pressure on wheat prices from the dollar and lower U.S. weekly exports," a trader in Singapore told Reuters. "But we feel the downside in wheat is limited, supplies are likely to tighten as there is going to be less Black Sea wheat available in the coming months."
On cash markets, hard red winter wheat basis levels held steady across Kansas on Thursday. Basis was unchanged at country elevators, with bids ranging from 64 cents under May futures at central locations to 90 cents under futures in the west, USDA reported. Terminal elevators held basis levels steady, with bids ranging from 30 cents under May futures at east and central locations to 70 cents under futures in the south.
Wetter conditions in Midwest as April nears
The Midwest and Northern Plains may receive light and variable showers today through Monday, with the southern halves of Illinois and Indiana likely to see the highest totals at 0.5 inch to 0.75 inch, according to the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Nebraska and Kansas are expected to be mostly dry.
The National Weather Service’s 8-to-14-day outlook calls for wetter than normal conditions for most of the Corn Belt from March 28 through April 3, with warmer than normal temperatures building across the Central and Southern Plains during that period.
U.S. stocks poised to break four-week loss streak
Stock index futures fell overnight as the market tracked weakness in Europe and Asia, but the S&P 500 index was still poised to break a four-week losing streak.
Futures based on the S&P 500 and the Dow industrials indexes were both down 0.2% to 0.3%. For the week, the underlying S&P 500 was up about 0.4% but still down almost 8% from a record high a month ago.
The U.S. dollar index was up slightly and pacing for a third straight daily advance but remained near a five-month low hit earlier this week. May WTI crude oil futures fell 33 cents to $67.74 per barrel after earlier climbing to its highest level in nearly three weeks.
What else I’m reading at www.FarmFutures.com this morning:
- Through bundling, sharing, analyzing and more, farmers can make the most of new technology on their operations. Allison Lynch walks through five ways to be profitable with new farm tech.