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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.
What we’re watching
The past year was certainly eventful, volatile and often nerve-wracking for American agriculture. But it wasn’t all about tariffs and China. Beyond the daily headlines were stories of ingenuity, resilience, hope and people working together to solve problems. Read Farm Progress editors’ favorite stories of 2025.
Best wishes for the new year from the Farm Futures team!
Corn extends slide to two-week lows
March corn futures fell 1.25 cents to $4.3925 per bushel late in overnight trading after earlier dropping to $4.39, the contract’s lowest intraday price since $4.36 on December 17. A loss today would mark the fourth consecutive daily decline. Futures are down over 4% for the year, based on the most-active contract.
Technicals continued to erode overnight as March futures extended a sell-off from a six-week high of $4.53 posted last Friday. Prices have dropped under several near- and long-term simple moving averages and may be heading for a test of the 100-day SMA at $4.3850. This week’s slide has sent futures toward the lower end of the past two months’ range, with critical support seen at the November and December intraday lows around $4.35.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price fell about 1.75 cents Tuesday to about $3.9725, near a two-week low. Tuesday’s cash average was about 42.75 cents below March futures.
Outside markets stabilized Tuesday but grain markets continued to sag amid speculator profit-taking in light-volume trade. Funds sold an estimated 35,000 corn futures contracts over the past three days, based on a StoneX estimate.
The apparent chart breakdown underway sets the market up for a weak start to 2026, and there’s little on the fundamental front that could help the bulls ahead of USDA’s January 12 crop reports. Lack of progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks means Black Sea disruptions remain a risk, but South American weather continues to be largely bearish. U.S. cash markets remain subdued.
For bulls, the best near-term hope likely is that strong export and ethanol demand continues in early 2026 and forestalls a more severe chart slump below the late-2025 lows.
Early today, USDA is scheduled to report export sales for the week ended December 18 as the agency moves closer to clearing backlogged numbers that went unreleased during the government shutdown. USDA should be caught up by the first full week of January. Sales for the weeks ended December 25 and January 1 are scheduled for January 5 and January 8, respectively.
Sales numbers reported last week continued to illustrate robust demand for corn from Mexico, Japan and other top buyers. Sustaining that demand will be critical to prevent further downside in corn futures.
Net U.S. corn sales for the week ended December 11 totaled 1.744 million metric tons (68.7 million bushels), up 18% from the previous week. Sales commitments for 2025-26 to date (including accumulated exports) now total 1.804 billion bushels, up 30% from the same period in 2024-25.
Actual shipments, however, suggest a late-December slowdown. On Monday, USDA said corn inspected for export totaled 1.301 million metric tons (51.2 million bushels) during the week ended December 25, down 26% from the prior week and a two-month low. Year-to-date shipments were still up 66% from the same period in 2024-25 at 1.007 billion bushels.
The weak farm economy hit equipment manufacturers hard in 2025, though some dealers reported sales upticks in the waning months. It may not seem like the best time to pony up for a tractor or combine, but there are at least four need-to-knows farmers can use to navigate the equipment market to their advantage, Prairie Farmer’s Ava Splear writes.
Chinese purchases fail to support soybeans
March soybeans fell 2.25 cents to $10.60 overnight after earlier slipping to $10.5725, the contract’s lowest intraday price since December 19. A loss today would be the contract’s fourth consecutive daily decline. Despite the recent sell-off, soybean futures are up almost 50 cents, or nearly 5%, for the year.
Soybean technicals continued to deteriorate overnight with March futures testing the eight-week low posted earlier this month, indicating hopes the market had established a near-term bottom were premature. A push under the $10.57 area could fuel further fund selling that sends prices toward the $10.50, a level last traded in mid-October. Funds sold an estimated 12,000 soybean futures contracts the past three days.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price fell about 4.25 cents Tuesday to $9.7550, around a two-month low. Tuesday’s cash average was about 67.25 cents below March futures.
Soybeans remain burdened by crop-favorable weather in Brazil that’s increasing confidence the country will reap another record harvest in 2026. Rains have covered key growing areas in Brazil late this month and while Argentina has been drier, some rain relief may arrive in early 2026.
Troublesome signs for bulls continue as confirmation of additional China purchases continues do little to excite buyers in soybean futures. Early Tuesday, USDA reported private exporter soybean sales totaling 136,000 MT (5 million bushels) for delivery to China during 2025-26. USDA also reported soybean sales totaling 231,000 MT for delivery to “unknown destinations,” also for 2025-26 delivery.
China’s buying trends will be of keen interest in today’s USDA weekly export sales report.
Last week, USDA reported net U.S. soybean sales for the week ended December 11 at 2.396 MMT (88 million bushels), up 54% from the previous week and a marketing-year high. China was the week’s top buyer at 1.383 MMT, bringing the country’s total reported soybean purchases for 2025-26 to slightly over 6 MMT (223 million bushels).
China’s confirmed purchases still lag the 12 MMT the White House has said China would buy by the end of February. But analysts believe China’s purchase total by now is actually at least 8 MMT when factoring in sales that haven’t yet been confirmed by USDA.
China avoided buying U.S. soybeans much of this year, sending U.S. shipments of the oilseed down sharply. Fortunately, the U.S. has been diversifying its export customers in recent years, enabling other countries to pick up some of the slack, according to a recent study by Purdue University. For soybean farmers, “the result has been manageable decline rather than a crisis,” the study said. “For corn, this means robust growth rather than modest gains.”
Wheat market shrugs off Ukraine concerns
March SRW wheat fell 2 cents to $5.0875 after earlier touching $5.0750, the contract’s lowest intraday price since December 19.
Hopes the wheat market may establish a near-term bottom have grown tenuous amid this week’s soft technical performance. March SRW futures appear heading for a third straight close under the 10-day SMA (currently $5.13), which may have bears targeting the $5.10. Further weakness could set up a test of the $5.04 contract low, posted December 17, early in the new year.
March HRW wheat fell 4.75 cents to $5.1725 after sinking 5.25 cents Tuesday for the market’s third consecutive daily decline. March spring wheat fell 0.5 cent to $5.78.
Wheat futures extended weakness overnight as traders appeared to shrug off early-week concerns over recent Russian attacks on Ukrainian port infrastructure. Disruption to Black Sea grain shipments remains a risk, but that’s being largely overshadowed by abundant global supplies that likely will continue to limit price rallies in 2026.
Recent U.S. wheat export numbers have showed a mixed pattern recently but overall remain up sharply from last year’s levels.
Last week, USDA reported net U.S. wheat sales during the week ended December 11 at 432,600 MT (15.9 million bushels), up 13% from the previous week. For 2025-26 to date, U.S. wheat sales commitments (including accumulated exports) total 725.8 million bushels, up 22% from the same period in 2024-25 and a nine-year high.
Russia-based consultant Sovecon raised its 2025-26 estimate for the country’s wheat exports by 400,000 MT, or 0.9%, to 44.6 MMT (1.64 billion bushels), higher than USDA’s current 44-MMT forecast. Sovecon’s update came a few days after Russia’s government released preliminary crop production results for 2025, with wheat production estimated at 91.4 MMT (3.36 billion bushels).
Wall Street poised for soft close to record year
Stock index futures eased overnight ahead of the final trading day of a record-breaking year for Wall Street.
Futures based on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 indexes both fell about 0.2%, while Dow futures fell about 0.1%. The underlying S&P 500 is up over 17% for the year and poised to record a third straight year of double-digit gains. On Christmas Eve, the S&P posted a record close near 6,930.
The U.S. dollar index was little changed but still extending a rebound from near three-month lows last week. The dollar still weakened over 9% this year.
February WTI crude oil futures rose 30 cents to $58.25 per barrel. Gold futures dropped 1.5% to about $4,231 per ounce after earlier slipping to a three-week low.