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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.
What we’re watching
A record U.S. harvest and heavy supply outlook have corn prices under pressure, but biofuels offer a “glimmer of light” in the form of a potential year-round E15 gasoline blend, Total Farm Marketing’s Naomi Blohm says. Year-round E15 “presents the most straightforward path to preserve existing ethanol demand and create new growth,” according to the American Farm Bureau. Blohm explains the “wow” factor in her latest Ag Marketing IQ column.
Corn exports expected to show resurgence
March corn futures rose 0.25 cent to $4.2425 per bushel in late overnight trading after adding 2.25 cents Thursday to $4.24. Futures are little changed from $4.2475 at the end of last week.
Corn traded in a narrow range overnight as March futures extended the past week’s consolidation roughly between $4.28 and the five-month low posted January 14 at $4.1725. Sideway-higher price action suggests the market found a near-term bottom, but technicals remain weak and upside impetus remains limited. A close above the 10-day simple moving average (SMA) around $4.2475 could presage further strength next week.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price rose about 2.25 cents Thursday to $3.8675. Thursday’s average was about 37.25 cents below March futures, narrowing from 37.75 cents a week earlier.
Corn futures saw further corrective buying overnight behind strength in wheat and the soy complex and strong demand signals from the ethanol industry. Today’s weekly export sales update from USDA is expected to show resurgence in corn demand after purchases leveled off starting late last year. The report was delayed a day due to Monday’s holiday.
Analysts expect net U.S. corn sales for the week ended January 15 at 1.9 million metric tons (MMT) to 3.1 MMT (74.8 million to 123.2 million bushels), based on a Reuters survey. The previous week’s sales totaled 1.14 MMT, down 10% from the average for the previous four weeks. Sales were still running at a pace that would exceed USDA’s full-year projection for a record 3.2 billion bushels.
Domestic ethanol production last week slipped from a record high but continued to run above year-ago levels as low-priced corn and strong exports buoyed distillers’ margins.
U.S. ethanol production averaged 1.119 million barrels per day during the week ended January 16, down 6.4% from a record 1.196 million barrels the previous week, the Energy Information Administration said Thursday. Production over the past four weeks averaged 1.133 million barrels a day, up 2.9% from the same period a year earlier.
Exports last week surged 83% to an average of 218,000 barrels per day, just under the weekly record of 219,000 reached in December.
Despite strong production, the ethanol industry’s corn use is running slightly below the pace needed to hit USDA’s full-year target of 5.6 billion bushels, which would be up 3% from 2024-25. For the 2025-26 marketing year to date, estimated corn use for ethanol totaled 2.135 billion bushels, up 0.8% from the same period in 2024-25.
Rally prospects in corn likely will be held in check by last week’s bearish USDA numbers, which indicate burdensome supplies will persist through much of 2026. USDA’s final estimate for the 2025 came in at a surprisingly high 17.02 billion bushels, and stockpiles at the end of the current marketing year are expected to swell to a seven-year high at 2.23 billion bushels.
In the wake of a record corn crop, it’s critical the industry continues to look for ways to expand already-strong demand, including that from export markets. That’s one reason it makes sense to renew the U.S-Mexico-Canada trade agreement in July 1, Terrain analyst Bree Baatz says in our latest Ag Marketing IQ In Depth video.
Soybeans lifted by stronger exports
March soybeans rose 3.75 cents to $10.6775 overnight after fading Thursday from an initial climb near a four-week high to end with a 0.5-cent loss. Futures are still up from $10.53 at the end of last week. New-crop November futures rose 3.5 cents to $10.8075, up over 11 cents for the week and poised to close at a four-week high.
Soybeans rebounded overnight after Thursday’s failed attempt to close above the 200-day SMA in March futures (currently $10.6825). Early Thursday, the March contract touched $10.7250, the contract’s highest intraday price since December 29. A firm close today could lay groundwork for further gains next week, with upside targets including $10.75 and $10.80. Initial support includes the 20- and 10-day SMAs ($10.5825 and $10.5525).
Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price was little changed Thursday at about $9.94. Thursday’s average was about 70 cents below March futures, narrowing from 71 cents a week earlier.
March soybean meal rose 70 cents to $296.90 per ton after jumping $4.80, or 1.7%, Thursday. March soyoil rose 45 points to 54.23 cents per pound after earlier reaching a four-month high.
Traders continue to monitor export markets following reports earlier this week China reached an initial White House soybean purchase target that followed last October’s trade truce. China has bought enough U.S. soybean cargoes to meet the 12-MMT target, but analysts are skeptical whether the country will buy much more with another likely-record Brazil harvest underway.
USDA’s export sales update should reflect China’s recent buying flurry. Net U.S. soybean sales for the week ended January 15 are expected to come in at 1.5 MMT to 3 MMT (55.1 million to 110.2 million bushels), based on the Reuters survey. The previous week’s sales totaled 2.062 MMT, with China the top buyer at 1.224 MMT.
Optimism over biofuels mandates also underpinned the soy complex. Last week, reports circulated the Trump administration plans to finalize biofuels blending quotas by March. The administration is weighing a proposed mandated biodiesel blending range of 5.2 billion to 5.6 billion gallons in 2026, a sharp increase over 3.35 billion gallons for 2025.
Weather in Brazil remains largely favorable for crop development, with key growing areas receiving more rain this week. But extreme heat and dryness in Argentina looms as a potential negative for yields. A heat wave starting this weekend in Argentina could boost temperatures into the low 100s Fahrenheit in some areas.
Brazilian soybean crushing group Abiove estimated the country’s 2025-26 soybean crop at 177.1 MMT (6.51 billion bushels), up 3.3% from 171.5 MMT in 2024-25. The group also forecast 2026 exports at 111.5 MMT up 3% from 2025, and domestic crush at 61 MMT, up 4.3% and a record.
Wheat climbs on winterkill concerns
March SRW wheat rose 4 cents to $5.1950 after jumping 7.75 cents Thursday to $5.1550 to halt a two-day losing streak. Futures are up from $5.18 at the end of last week and are poised to record a third straight weekly gain.
Wheat technicals strengthened after March SRW futures closed Thursday above the 10- and 20-day SMAs (both about $5.1325). Upside targets include last week’s high at $5.21 and the January high at $5.28. Initial support is seen at last week’s intraday low at $5.07 and the contract low at $5.0150.
March HRW wheat rose 5.75 cents to $5.3125 and are tracking for the contract’s highest close since December 24. March spring wheat fell 1.75 cents to $5.72 after surging 10 cents Thursday to $5.7375, the contract’s highest close since December 31.
Winter wheat futures generated buying interest overnight amid concerns a major winter storm heading for the central and southeastern U.S. could damage crop. The storm may bring variable snow and ice and could send temperatures plunging below zero in some areas.
In the U.S. Plains, “areas without snow could suffer some winterkill,” StoneX analyst Bevan Everett said in a report Thursday.
USDA’s weekly export sales update may show continued, modest improvement from a late-2025 slump. Analysts see net U.S. wheat sales for the week ended January 15 at 150,000 MT to 450,000 MT (5.5 million to 16.5 million bushels), based on the Reuters survey. The previous week’s sales totaled 156,300 MT, up 32% from the previous week but down 21% from average for the previous four weeks.
For 2025-26 to date, U.S. wheat sales commitments (including accumulated exports) totaled 744.8 million bushels, up almost 16% from the same period in 2024-25 and 83% of USDA’s full-year target of 900 million bushels.
Stock index futures lower amid tech weakness
Stock index futures fell overnight following a two-day upswing fueled by easing geopolitical concerns. A disappointing earnings report from chipmaker Intel was expected to weigh on the technology sector.
Futures based on the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq-100 both dropped about 0.2%, while Dow futures also declined 0.2%. The U.S. dollar index was little changed and hovering near a two-week low posted Thursday.
March WTI crude oil futures advanced $1.04 to $60.40 per barrel. Gold futures were up about 0.2% after earlier touching a record at $4,970 per ounce.
What else I’m reading at www.FarmFutures.com this morning:
- There are six market dynamics that could shake up farm income forecasts, Farm Futures contributing analyst Bryce Knorr says.