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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.
What we’re watching
Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins last week hinted at government assistance soon to help distressed farmers, dubbed a “bridge payment” to help offset this year’s losses. But details remain sketchy, and Rollins continued to point fingers at very much no-longer-president Biden. What kind of numbers can farmers expect? Policy Editor Joshua Baethge examines a few key questions.
Corn trade watching for USDA report
March corn futures fell 0.25 cent to $4.4450 late in overnight trading after dropping 2.4 cents Friday to $4.4475. The most-active contract fell 3 cents last week, extending a string of alternating up- and down weeks to six.
Corn futures hovered around the middle of the past month’s range overnight with narrow-range activity persisting ahead of Tuesday’s USDA report. Prices have been hemmed in by tough resistance just above $4.50 in March futures, near last week’s high, and near-term support that includes last week’s low ($4.4175) and the 50-day simple moving average (just under $4.41).
Other key chart levels to watch include the 200-day SMA ($4.4750) and a four-week low of $4.3450 on November 24.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price fell almost 2.5 cents Friday to $3.9925. Thursday’s cash average was about 45.5 cents below March futures, narrowing from 54.5 cents a month earlier.
Sideways trade continued overnight amid light pre-holiday trading and limited fresh news, with firm cash markets and strong exports continuing to underpin the corn market. Tomorrow’s monthly USDA Supply and Demand update could bring some modest adjustments to demand figures but historically has produced limited market reaction.
“The government doesn’t do supply-side revisions until January so the demand side of the domestic corn and soybean balance tables will be in focus,” StoneX analyst Arlan Suderman said in a report Friday. That grain market expects “slightly lower corn ending stocks due to a strong ongoing export pace, and slightly higher soybean ending stocks due to (a) lagging export pace.”
In November, USDA hiked its outlook for U.S. corn stockpiles at the end of the 2025-26 marketing year to 2.154 billion bushels, up 41% from 2024-25 and a seven-year high.
USDA’s weekly export inspections report later this morning will be studied to see if China appears as a soybean destination. Traders will also watch to see if a dip in corn shipments late last month extended into December.
A week ago, USDA said corn inspected for export totaled 1.421 million metric tons (55.9 million bushels) during the week ended November 27, down 16% from the previous week but up 50% from the same week a year earlier. Corn shipments are still running 71% above last year’s levels.
Elsewhere, several Ukrainian ports have reportedly reduced grain intake due to ongoing Russian attacks and a shortage of locomotives, pushing Ukraine’s corn exports well below year-ago levels, according to Stewart-Peterson Group’s Grain Market Insider. “These disruptions have widened the U.S. export window, and the recent two-week break in the U.S. dollar has further improved U.S. competitiveness,” the report said.
Soybean charts breaking down as prices breach $11
January soybeans fell 5.75 cents to $10.9950 late overnight after earlier dropping to $10.9525, the contract’s first decline under $11 since October 30. The most-active contract sank 32.5 cents, or 2.9%, last week to halt a seven-week winning streak.
Soybean futures’ poor technical performance last week extended overnight with charts in the throes of an all-out breakdown after breaching $11 and appearing to have confirmed a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern. January futures are down over 70 cents, or 6%, from a 17-month high of $11.6950 on November 18, and there appears to be little significant support below the market.
Downside levels to watch in January futures include the 10-day SMA ($10.8850) and the $10.70 area, which marks the top of a gap left in the daily bar chart from late October.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price fell about 14.25 cents Friday to $10.3450. Friday’s average was about 70.75 cents below January futures, narrowing from 75 cents a month earlier.
January soybean meal fell 50 cents to $306.90 per ton after earlier touching the contract’s lowest intraday price since October 28. A loss today would be the market’s seventh consecutive daily drop. January soybean oil fell 24 points to 51.96 cents per pound after halting a four-week winning streak last week.
Soybean futures extended last week’s losses as traders remain unimpressed with the recent pace of China’s purchases even after a recent trade truce resulted in fresh business from the world’s top importer of the oilseed. The market has grown increasingly skeptical Chinese purchases will reach the 12-MMT target the White House touted by the end of this year or even early next year.
Last Friday, USDA reported private exporter soybean sales totaling 462,000 metric tons (17 million bushels) for delivery to China during 2025-26. The report was the first such flash announcement for a China soybean purchase in a week but failed to generate any bullish impact in futures. Friday’s announcement followed several previous USDA sales reports over the past two weeks and brought recent confirmed Chinese purchases to a total of just over 2.71 MMT (99.6 million bushels). That’s less than one-fourth of the 12 MMT the White House said China would purchase by the end of 2025.
Last week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent appeared to acknowledge the likelihood Chinese purchases will fall short of the 12-MMT target, saying he expected the total should be reached by the end of February. China “is on track to keep every part of the deal, every part of the deal,” Bessent said during an interview at a conference hosted by the New York Times.
Elsewhere, South American weather is increasingly in market focus with planting of the corn and soybean crops in Argentina and Brazil mostly complete. Recent reports indicated dryness stress in some key growing areas of Brazil, but beneficial rainfall is expected in coming weeks. Considering Brazil’s ongoing acreage expansion, it looks like a good bet the country will harvest a record soybean crop for the fourth year in a row, barring a severe, widespread drought.
Also, Reuters reported Brazil’s soybean exports surged 64% in November from a year ago to 4.2 MMT (154.3 million bushels), the government said last week, a reflection of increased demand from China. The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters, known as Anec, said it expects December shipments to soar 90% from the same month in 2025, to 2.8 MMT. For all of 2025, Anec pegged exports at 110 MMT, up 13% from 2024.
USDA’s weekly export inspections figures for soybeans have sagged sharply from last year’s levels, reflecting the absence of China until just recently. A week ago, inspections totaled 920,194 MT (38.8 million bushels), up 14% from the prior week but down 66% from the same week in 2024. China was not mentioned as a soybean buyer in last week’s report.
Wheat burdened by large global supplies
March SRW wheat rose 0.5 cent to $5.3625 after dropping 4.5 cents Friday to $5.3575. The most-active contract remains up from a five-week intraday low at $5.2975 posted December 2 but still lost 2.75 cents for the week, a fifth straight weekly decline.
March HRW futures fell 2.25 cents to $5.29 after falling 2.75 cents Friday, though the contract still ended the week with a gain of 3.75 cents. March spring wheat rose 1.25 cents to $5.7425 after ending unchanged Friday at $5.73, near a four-week closing low posted the day before.
Wheat futures extended the past two weeks’ sideways pattern overnight as the market draws some support from ideas recent weakness in the dollar could further support a strong overall U.S. export pace. Last week also saw the market generate some buying amid concerns the Russia-Ukraine war could disrupt Black Sea grain shipping.
However, rallies continue to be viewed as selling opportunities due to heavy bearish fundamentals, with global production on track for a record high for the sixth year in a row in 2026. Last week brought more reminders of a burdensome supply outlook weighing on prices.
On Thursday, Statistics Canada boosted its forecast for the country’s 2026 wheat crop to a record 39.96 MMT (1.47 billion bushels), up 3.3 MMT, or 9%, from a September forecast. The agency’s projected crop would be up over 10% from 2025.
Also, U.S. wheat shipments slipped in late November, suggesting global buyers may be turning more toward competitively-priced supplies from Russia and other top growers.
Wheat export inspections totaled 384.881 MT (14.1 million bushels) during the week ended November 27, down 20% from the previous week but up 29% from the same week in 2024. For 2025-26 to date, wheat shipments were still up 20% from the same period in 2024-25 and running at a 12-year high.
Despite the war with Russia that’s dragged on for nearly four years, Ukraine’s ag sector continues to show resilience and remains a key player in global grain markets. Ukraine ranks No. 6 in global wheat exports and No. 4 in global corn exports. That’s just one reason why U.S. farmers still need to pay attention to what’s happening in the Black Sea region.
Midwest cold returns by next weekend
Temperatures across the Midwest may warm up briefly around the middle of this week before dropping back below freezing by the weekend, and more snow is in the forecast for many areas.
Later this month, below-normal temperatures are expected across the eastern half of the U.S., with the greatest cold extremes seen expanding from the Northeast into the Great Lakes region, based on the National Weather Service’s 6-to-10-day outlook, which covers December 13-17. The same outlook calls for normal to below-normal precipitation prospects for most of the Midwest and Plains.
Stock index futures firm ahead of Fed Meeting
Stock index futures gained slightly overnight as investors waited for the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting, which concludes Wednesday and is expected to result in another cut in the central bank’s short-term interest rate.
Futures based on the S&P 500 index rose 0.1%, while Nasdaq-100 futures added 0.2% and Dow futures were little changed. The U.S. dollar index was little changed and near a five-week low reached late last week.
January WTI crude oil futures fell 66 cents to $59.42 per barrel. Gold futures fell less than 0.1% to about $4,224 per ounce.
What else I’m reading at www.FarmFutures.com this morning:
- USDA’s Supply and Demand update may also include some adjustments to wheat that could influence prices, Total Farm Marketing’s Naomi Blohm says.