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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.

What we’re watching

China’s recent U.S. soybean buying binge was welcomed by farmers, as prices extended a rally that’s approaching $12 per bushel. But be warned: China is unlikely to live up to reported purchase targets, according to Karen Braun of Zaner Ag Hedge. “We’ve seen this movie before,” Braun said in the latest FP Next podcast. “It doesn’t make sense for China to come in and buy these soybeans.”

Corn settling into pre-holiday mode

December corn futures fell 1 cent to $4.3575 late overnight after gaining 2 cents Tuesday to $4.3675, the contract’s sixth advance in the past seven days.

Corn futures retain a neutral-positive tone with prices trading slightly above the 200-day simple moving average, currently $4.35, as well as the 10- and 20-day SMAs ($4.33 and $4.32, respectively). But prices may be heading into a sideways pattern ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday next week, with upside limited absent further strength in soybeans. December futures’ double-top high last week at $4.4275 looms as a possible price peak.

Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price rose about 2 cents Tuesday to $3.9825. Tuesday’s cash average was about 38.5 cents below December futures, narrowing from 40.25 cents a week earlier.

Prices took some corrective selling pressure overnight following Tuesday’s gains, with weakness checked by firm cash markets, strong exports and easing harvest pressure. Earlier this week, USDA reported the corn harvest at 91% complete as of Sunday, behind the 98% from a year earlier and slightly below the 94% five-year average.

But market upside appears limited following last Friday’s USDA reports, which included a larger-than-expected average U.S. yield estimate at 186 bushels per acre and record production at 16.752 billion bushels. USDA’s latest estimate would mark a 12% surge over 2024’s harvest.

USDA’s reports seemed to generate more questions than answers, with the WASDE update including an opening disclaimer that some data was missing due to a “lapse in government funding.” As a result, the report carried the taste of a “nothingburger,” Bryce Knorr wrote in an Ag Marketing IQ post. That leaves markets seeking clarity on the size of corn and soybean crops and potentially more volatility ahead with final USDA numbers two months away.

Meantime, foreign demand for U.S. corn remains robust. On Monday, USDA reported corn inspected for export during the week ended November 13 at 2.054 million metric tons (80.7 million bushels), up 38% from the prior week and more than double 807,420 metric tons (MT) for the same week a year earlier. For the 2025-26 marketing year to date, corn shipments are up 73% from the same period in 2024-25.

Soybeans pull back after China confirmation

January soybeans fell 8 cents to $11.4550 after dropping 3.75 cents Tuesday to $11.5350. Prices faded Tuesday from overnight strength that sent January futures to $11.6950, the highest intraday price for a most-active contract since June 2024.

Soybean technicals remain in a sharp uptrend with January futures up about $1.20 since mid-October, but near-overbought conditions and the approaching holiday could set the stage for a corrective pullback. Additional Chinese purchases may be needed to sustain upside momentum. Upside levels to watch include Tuesday’s high and the $11.80 area, near a daily chart gap on the continuation chart. Near-term support includes the 10-day SMA ($11.3425).

Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price fell 4 cents Tuesday to $10.7975. Tuesday’s average was about 73.75 cents below January futures, narrowing from 74 cents a week earlier.

December soybean meal fell $2.70 to $324.30 per ton after shedding 1.2% Tuesday. December soyoil fell 32 points to 51.85 cents per pound after surging 2% Tuesday to a two-month closing high at 52.17 cents.

Soybean futures faded after USDA confirmed rumors of larger-scale Chinese purchases of U.S. beans. Early Tuesday, USDA reported private exporter soybean sales totaling 792,000 MT (29.1 million bushels) for delivery during the 2025-26 marketing year. The announcement followed 232,000 MT of soybean sales to China last week, bringing the recent total to about 1.024 MMT, or less than 9% of the country's reported purchase target for 2025.

China’s recent purchases suggest the country is following through on terms from a trade truce struck with the U.S. in late October. The White House has said the truce will result in large Chinese purchases of U.S. beans, including 12 MMT (441 million bushels) by the end of this year.

However, U.S. soybean exports so far in the 2025-26 marketing year, which began September 1, still sharply lag last year’s levels. Based on USDA export inspections, soybean shipments through mid-November totaled 371.4 million bushels, down 43% from the same period in 2024-25 and 23% of USDA’s just-reduced full-year forecast of 1.635 billion bushels, a 13-year low.

China’s announced purchases this week signal “a major improvement to the outlook for overall (2025-26) U.S. soybean export demand, but don’t lose sight of the hole we’re digging out from,” StoneX Chief Commodities Economist Arlan Suderman said in a report.

“We’re still a considerable distance away from the stated 12-MMT target for sales to China by the end of the year no matter what perspective it’s viewed from,” Suderman said. “However, record strong domestic crush does help take the edge off concerns here for now.”

Elsewhere, the Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries, known as Abiove, estimated the country’s 2025-26 soybean crop at 177.7 MMT (6.53 billion bushels), down 0.4% from a previous forecast but higher than USDA’s outlook for 175 MMT. USDA’s projected crop would be up 2% from 171.5 MMT in 2024-25.

Dryness in Brazil’s northern soybean growing area is gaining attention, but rains are expected over the next 10 days.

Wheat futures near two-week high

March SRW wheat rose 3 cents to $5.62 after adding 0.5 cent Tuesday to $5.59, the contract’s highest close since $5.68 on November 5. Futures are up about 54 cents, or almost 11%, from a contract low of $5.0850 posted October 14.

March HRW futures rose 1.25 cents to $5.4425 after slipping 1.75 cents Tuesday to $5.43. March spring wheat fell 2.5 cents to $5.8550 after jumping 6.75 cents Tuesday to $5.88, the contract’s highest close since September 29.

Wheat futures have gained support this week behind fund short covering fueled in part by renewed concerns over potential disruption to Black Sea grain shipments. Additionally, USDA’s initial ratings for the 2025-26 crop year showed a wide range of conditions across the winter wheat belt.

Overall, USDA rated 49% of the winter wheat crop either “good” or “excellent” at the start of this week, compared to 45% a year ago. Kansas posted a 56% good-to-excellent figure, but Montana came in at just 6% and South Dakota at 35%.

Rainfall expected in the Central and Southern Plains this week should support early crop development, but little precipitation is seen for the Northern Plains and temperatures next week are expected to take a sharp turn lower.

Among state-level ratings, “the biggest standout centers on Montana… with minimal rain in the forecast and expectations for a serious cold snap to move in at the tail-end of next week,” Suderman wrote. “Similar concerns exist for other northern stretches of the (HRW) wheat belt, namely in South Dakota and western Nebraska, though these areas do show better chances to catch some beneficial precipitation in the 11-15-day window.

“It will be worth keeping an eye on these developments in the weeks ahead as the U.S. winter wheat crop enters dormancy,” he added.

USDA said 92% of the U.S. winter wheat crop had been seeded as of Sunday, slightly behind the 95% five-year average.

Temperatures will likely become “significantly colder” around November 26-27, which should “promote a greater transition to dormancy,” World Weather, Inc., said.

Price upside may be limited by signs wheat export demand is tapering off following a strong start to 2025-25.

On Monday, USDA reported weekly export inspections at 246,533 MT (9.06 million bushels), down 15% from the previous week but up 25% from the same week in 2024. For 2025-26 to date, wheat shipments now total 445.2 million bushels, up 19.3% from the same period in 2024-25.

Rainfall to blanket Plains, eastern Midwest

Rainfall will blanket the Central and Southern Plains and eastern Corn Belt the rest of this week, with potential amounts of 0.5 inch to as much as 2 inches seen for Kansas, Oklahoma and Missouri, based on NOAA’s 72-hour map. Illinois, Indiana and Ohio could receive 0.25 inch to 1 inch.

Above-normal temperatures are expected to persist up to the middle of next week before colder air starts moving in from the Northern Plains around Thanksgiving, based on the National Weather Service’s 6-to-10-day and 8-to-14-day outlooks. Both outlooks, which cover November 24-December 2, continue to call for above-normal precipitation prospects across the central U.S.

Wall Street poised for rebound

Stock index futures rose overnight, indicating Wall Street is poised for a modest rebound following declines the past four days. Investors await quarterly earnings from AI and semiconductor bellwether Nvidia after today’s close.

Futures based on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq-100 indexes both rose around 0.3%, while Dow futures gained 0.1%. The U.S. dollar index was up about 0.1% after nearing a two-week high.

January WTI crude oil futures dropped 2% to $59.44 per barrel. Gold futures added 1.2% to about $4,116 per ounce.

What else I’m reading at www.FarmFutures.com this morning: