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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.
What we’re watching
As fertilizer costs soar, farm groups are ramping up pressure on the Trump Administration to look into the industry’s pricing and market concentration. The Justice Department recently launched an investigation into antitrust practices by major fertilizer producers, but whether it brings any relief remains an open question as another planting season looms, Policy Editor Joshua Baethge reports.
Corn hit by spillover weakness from soybeans
May corn futures fell 5.5 cents to $4.6175 per bushel late in overnight trading after gaining 4.75 cents Friday to $4.6725, the contract’s highest close since June. Futures added 6.75 cents last week to record a third straight weekly advance. December futures fell 3.75 cents to $4.8775 after touching $4.9850 a week ago.
Corn's bullish technical momentum faded overnight but prices are still in the upper half of the past week’s wide trading range. The market may see some sideways consolidation this week with May futures well off a 10-month high at $4.76 posted a week ago but up from last week’s low at $4.4550. Near-term support comes in at Friday’s low at $4.5850 and the 10-day simple moving average (SMA) around $4.5625.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price rose 4.75 cents Friday to just above $4.2350, up 5.5 cents for the week and the highest since May 2025. Friday’s average was about 43.75 cents below May futures, widening from 42.25 cents a week earlier.
Corn futures fell overnight as spillover weakness in the soy complex and in crude oil drove profit-taking in the wake of this month’s sharp gains. Selling pressure followed reports President Trump threatened to delay his summit with China’s Xi Jinping if Beijing doesn’t help secure the Strait of Hormuz as the war with Iran disrupts oil supplies.
April WTI crude futures fell about $1, or 1%, to just under $98 late in overnight trading after topping $102 overnight and closing at a four-year high Friday. Oil prices have soared over 45% over the past two weeks.
Corn futures may be vulnerable to profit-taking after speculators bought heavily in grain futures this month as the market followed crude oil higher. The managed money net long as of March 9 neared 199,000 corn futures contracts, the equivalent of nearly 1 billion bushels, the biggest in a year, based on Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.
Traders will watch for demand indicators this week including USDA’s weekly export inspections report today.
A week ago, USDA reported corn inspected for export for the week ended March 5 at 1.518 million metric tons (59.8 million bushels), down 18% from the previous week and down 18% from the same week a year earlier. For 2025-26 to date, corn shipments total 1.622 billion bushels, up 42% from the same period in 2024-25 and 49% of USDA’s full-year export projection, a record 3.3 billion bushels.
Soybeans down sharply on China concerns
May soybeans plunged 32 cents to $11.9325 overnight after slipping 2 cents Friday to $12.2525, down from a 21-month intraday high at $12.3875 last Thursday. Futures still gained 24.5 cents last week to post a sixth consecutive weekly advance. November soybeans fell 11.5 cents to $11.50.
Soybeans technicals lost upside momentum as prices fell sharply overnight, which could foster ideas the market may have established a near-term peak with last week’s high at $12.3875 in the May contract. May futures overnight dropped under $12 and the 10-day SMA ($11.9775). Downside levels to watch include last week’s low at $11.7775, which roughly coincides with the 20-day SMA ($11.7750).
Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price fell 2 cents Friday to just above $11.5025 but still added almost 23.75 cents last week. Friday’s average was about 75 cents below May futures, widening from 74 cents a week earlier.
May soybean meal fell $6.90 to $315.80 per ton after gaining $2.50 Friday to close at a 3 ½-month high. May soyoil fell 102 points to 66.42 cents per pound after gaining 1.3% last week.
Soybean futures tumbled overnight as President Trump’s threats to delay his summit with Xi Jinping jeopardized a key catalyst in the market’s winter rally: hopes for additional Chinese purchases of U.S. beans. Demand optimism accelerated last week ahead of a meeting between Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese counterparts over the weekend in Paris.
The soybean market may also be vulnerable to profit-taking after speculators bought heavily this month. The managed money net long as of March 9 surpassed 211,000 soybean futures contracts, or more than 1 billion bushels, the highest since early December, based on CFTC data.
199,000 corn futures contracts, the equivalent of nearly 1 billion bushels, the biggest in a year, based on Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. In soyoil futures, the fund net long reached the highest level since late 2022.
Could Brazilian quality issues open the door for U.S. soybean exports? Some soybean shipments from Brazil have failed to clear the country’s own sanitary inspections, raising concerns about potential disruptions at a crucial time for trade with China. Earlier this week, Cargill Inc. suspended exports from Brazil to China because of the issue.
A week ago, USDA reported soybean inspections for the week ended March 5 at 879,190 MT (32.3 million bushels), down 24% from the previous week but up 2.5% from the same week a year earlier. China was the top destination at 411,462 MT. For 2025-26 to date, shipments now total 995.2 million bushels, down 30% from the same period in 2024-25 and 63% of USDA’s full-year target of 1.575 billion bushels.
Plains dryness underpins wheat futures
March SRW wheat fell 4 cents to $6.0975 after rallying 15.25 cents Friday to $6.1375, though futures still fell 3 cents for the week, the first weekly decline in five weeks. A week ago, May SRW futures rallied to $6.4175, the highest intraday price for a most-active contract since June 2024.
March HRW wheat rose 3.25 cents to $6.3325 after jumping 16.5 cents Friday to $6.30, a gain of 6.5 cents for the week. March spring wheat fell 1.5 cents to $6.44 after adding 9.25 cents Friday to end near a nine-month high.
SRW wheat futures extended last week’s price pullback and appear to be slipping into sideways consolidation as upside momentum fades and traders monitor the Middle East war. The market remains underpinned by a dry outlook for most of the Plains through late March, fueling concerns over winter wheat yields as the crop comes out of dormancy.
Signs of improved export demand helped give wheat futures an early boost Thursday, but gains faded later in the day.
A week ago, USDA said wheat export inspections for the week ended March 5 totaled 496,108 MT (18.2 million bushels), up 40% from a four-week low the previous week and more than double the total from the same week in 2025.
For 2025-26 to date, shipments now total 702.7 million bushels, up 20% from the same period in 2024-25 and 78% of USDA’s full-year target of 900 million bushels.
Drier week ahead for Midwest and Plains
Light precipitation may fall over the Northern Plains and upper Midwest during the first half of this week, with trace amounts to 0.5 inch expected today through Thursday, based on the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. The rest of the Midwest and Plains should be dry.
After an early-week cold snap, conditions across much of the central U.S. are expected to warm up and turn drier into late March. The latest 6-to-14-day and 8-to-14-day outlooks from the National Weather Service, which cover March 21-29, show expansion of above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation from the Southwest across the Plains and most of the Corn Belt.
Stock index futures firmer overnight
Stock index futures climbed overnight as Treasury yields fell and investors monitored the Middle East war, which has entered its third week.
Futures based on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 indexes rose 0.7% and 0.8%, respectively, while Dow futures gained over 0.4%. The U.S. dollar index was down 0.4% after earlier reaching its highest level since late May.
April WTI crude futures fell about $1, or 1%, to just under $98 late in overnight trading but prices are still up over 45% over the past two weeks. Gold futures were down over 0.7% at about $5,022 per ounce.