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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.
What we’re watching
USDA’s annual January data parade, which launches today at 11 a.m. CT sharp, will be one key to the direction of grain markets the rest of the winter, if not longer. Will corn and soybean yields be cut, as the market expects? The only surprise would be if there are no surprises. Check Farm Futures for market and analyst reaction to USDA's data drop.
Corn hits two-week high ahead of data
March corn futures rose 1.75 cents to $4.4750 per bushel in late overnight trading after earlier climbing to $4.4850, the contract’s highest intraday price since December 29. Futures slipped 0.25 cent Friday but still gained 8.25 cents for the week, the third weekly advance in the past four weeks, and are up from a two-week low of $4.3625 posted January 5.
Last week’s strong technical performance carried over into overnight trading, with March futures now on track to close above the 200-day simple moving average, currently $4.45, for the fourth consecutive day. Futures continue to face stiff resistance at the $4.50 area, though bullish numbers in today’s reports could catalyze a rally above that mark.
Bearish numbers could lead to a test of some key near- and mid-term support levels, including the 50-day SMA ($4.4450) and the 10- and 20-day SMAs (both around $4.4350), and send prices to the low $4.40s.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price fell slightly over 0.25 cent Friday to $4.0725. Friday’s average was about 38.5 cents below March futures, narrowing from 44 cents at the end of 2025.
Futures extended last week’s gains amid expectations USDA will lower its estimates for U.S. corn production and yields. The reports include USDA’s monthly Supply and Demand and quarterly Grain Stocks updates, along with its Crop Production Annual Summary, which typically features “final” 2025 estimates for U.S. corn and soybean production and yields.
Speculators went on a buying streak last week as near-term technicals firmed. Funds bought about 47,000 corn futures contracts last week after selling 48,000 contracts the previous week, based on StoneX estimates.
Last week’s gains indicated traders were positioning for potentially bullish numbers, including expected reductions for U.S. corn. The following are trade expectations for several closely followed USDA figures, based on a Reuters survey of analysts:
- U.S. 2025 corn production: 16.552 billion bushels (vs. USDA’s November estimate of 16.752 billion bu.)
- U.S. corn average yield: 184.0 bushels per acre (vs 186.0 bpa in November)
- U.S. December 1 corn stocks: 12.962 billion bu. (vs 12.075 billion bu. a year earlier)
- U.S. corn ending stocks, 2025-26: 1.972 billion bu. (vs 2.209 billion bu. in December)
If USDA reduces U.S. yield and production numbers to trade expectations, that would still leave both figures at all-time highs, with 2025’s harvest up about 11% from 14.89 billion bu. in 2024. But last year’s bullish January surprise likely remains fresh in many traders’ minds.
Today’s data will help set the direction for grain prices in early 2026, and farmers should be prepared for bullish and bearish outcomes and anything in between. “This is the big one,” says Total Farm Marketing’s Naomi Blohm. Get ready for “lots of surprises, twists and turns.” How can farmers prepare for what could be a harrowing ride? Exports suggest five possible paths.
Last January, USDA’s unexpectedly large cut to the U.S. corn yield helped trigger a winter rally that sent corn futures up as much as 63 cents over the next five weeks, with prices peaking at $5.19 on February 19, based on the most-active contract. That price turned out to be the high for the year, and most-active futures haven’t traded above $5 since last February.
USDA lowered its final yield average for the 2024 corn harvest to 179.3 bpa from 183.1 bpa previously, contrary to expectations for a smaller reduction. Many analysts believe the final yield number will be lower again this year after crop disease and unfavorable weather hampered yields in parts of the Midwest last summer.
Early Thursday, USDA reported export sales for the week ended January 1, meaning the market is now fully current on weekly data that was backlogged during last fall’s government shutdown. The latest figures showed a continued slide in corn sales, which is common around the holidays.
USDA said net U.S. corn sales for the week totaled 377,600 metric tons (14.9 million bushels), less than half the previous week’s sales, down 76% from the average for the previous four weeks and a marketing-year low. Sales fell well short of trade expectations that ranged from 700,000 MT to 1.5 million metric tons. South Korea led buyers at 139,000 MT.
Corn exports are still running at a record pace, which may prompt USDA to raise its forecast in Monday’s Supply and Demand report. Sales commitments for 2025-26 to date (including accumulated exports) now total 2.004 billion bushels, up 30% from the same period in 2024-25.
Soybeans supported by more China buying
March soybeans rose 4.5 cents to $10.67 overnight after adding 1.25 cents Friday to $10.6250. Futures gained 16.75 cents last week and are up almost 28 cents, or 2.8%, from a 2 ½-month low of $10.38 posted January 2.
Soybeans showed a firmer tone overnight but otherwise extended a sideways pre-USDA consolidation, with March futures testing but failing to push above the 200-day SMA ($10.6725). Last week’s sharp advance indicates growing confidence the market has established a near-term bottom.
Funds reduced a net-long position five weeks in a row through January 5, but bullish numbers in today’s USDA reports could spark a renewed buying binge. Key upside levels to watch include last week’s high at $10.7050 and the $10.75 area. Downside levels to watch include the $10.55 area and last week’s low at $10.4550.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price rose about 1.5 cents Friday to $9.8975. Friday’s average was about 72.75 cents below March futures, narrowing from 83.75 cents at the end of 2025.
March soybean meal fell 60 cents to $303.10 per ton after jumping 2.6% last week. March soyoil rose 71 points to 50.41 cents per pound after gaining 0.8% last week, the market’s third consecutive weekly advance.
Soybean futures gained overnight after Reuters reported Friday that China’s state stockpiler Sinograin purchased at least 10 cargoes, or at least 600,000 MT of U.S. soybeans, for shipment in April and May. The purchases brought China closer to fulfilling the White House’s 12-MMT initial target following last fall’s trade truce.
Traders may also be positioning themselves for bullish adjustments in today’s USDA reports, including possible downward revisions to U.S. soybean yield and production. The following are expectations for several closely followed USDA figures, based on the Reuters survey:
- U.S. 2025 soybean production: 4.229 billion bushels (vs. USDA’s November estimate of 4.253 billion bu.)
- U.S. soybean average yield: 52.7 bushels per acre (vs 53 bpa in November)
- U.S. December 1 soybean stocks: 3.25 billion bu. (vs 3.1 billion bu. a year earlier)
- U.S. soybean ending stocks, 2025-26: 292 million bu. (vs 290 million bu. in December)
- Brazil 2025-26 soybean production: 176.4 MMT (vs. 175 MMT in December)
Not all potential USDA adjustments may be price-supportive. Some analysts believe USDA will trim its forecast for 2025-26 U.S. soybean exports due to a sharp slump in sales after China halted buying part of last year. Based on USDA’s current forecast, exports are already expected to tumble 13% from 2024-25, to a 13-year low at 1.635 billion bushels. An expected hike to Brazil’s soybean crop could tame rally prospects.
A year ago, a bullish January surprise in soybeans last year also sparked a winter rally. USDA slashed its average soybean yield estimate for the 2024 crop by a full bushel to 50.7, while production was reduced to 4.366 billion bushels, down 2.1% from the previous figure.
Soybean futures subsequently climbed as much as 81 cents, peaking at nearly $10.80 on February 5 before slumping the next two months and falling as low as $9.6950 in early April.
Traders will also watch for confirmation of additional soybean sales to China this week. China’s flurry of purchases in recent weeks has the country close to the 12-MMT initial target that arose from October’s trade truce with the U.S.
Based on last Thursday’s USDA weekly export sales report, China’s confirmed shipments and purchase commitments for U.S. soybeans now total around 7 MMT for 2025-26, though analysts believe the actual number is closer to 10 MMT when factoring in unreported sales.
Wheat rises to four-week high
March SRW wheat rose 6.5 cents to $5.2375 after earlier reaching $5.2525, the contract’s highest intraday price since December 15. Futures eased 0.75 cent Friday but still gained 10.75 cents last week, the second weekly advance in three weeks.
SRW futures are up over 15 cents from last Friday’s contract low at $5.0150, suggesting prices may have found a bottom following a two-month slide. Speculators bought actively last week as they moved to reduce a still-large net short position. Funds bought about 13,000 SRW futures contracts last week, based on StoneX estimates.
March HRW wheat rose 8 cents to $5.3825 after ending unchanged Friday but still notching a 15.25-cent gain for the week. March spring wheat rose 4.25 cents to $5.7175 after shedding 3.75 cents Friday to $5.6750, a lifetime-low close for the contract.
Futures extended last week’s strength amid concern expanding drought in the Southern Plains could eventually threaten the winter wheat crop. Initial state crop ratings last week showed some slippage.
Today’s reports include USDA’s initial 2025 U.S. winter wheat planting estimates for the crop that will be harvested in 2026. Weak prices and low returns likely meant wheat lost acres to corn and soybeans, analysts say. Total winter wheat seedings are expected to drop to a six-year low.
The following summarizes expectations for several key USDA figures, based on the Reuters survey:
- U.S. 2025 all winter wheat seedings: 32.413 million acres (vs. 33.153 million in 2024)
- U.S. 2025 HRW wheat seedings: 23.028 million acres (vs. 23.489 million in 2024)
- U.S. December 1 wheat stocks: 1.636 billion bu. (vs 1.573 billion bu. a year earlier)
- U.S. wheat ending stocks, 2025-26: 896 million bu. (vs 901 million bu. in December)
Slumping exports may cap price upside in wheat. Last Thursday, net U.S. wheat sales during the week ended January 1 totaled 118,700 MT (4.36 million bushels), up 24% from a marketing-year low the previous week but down 55% from the four-week average. Export demand is still up sharply from last year. For 2025-26 to date, U.S. wheat sales commitments (including accumulated exports) total 739.1 million bushels, up 18% from the same period in 2024-25.
Wall Street poised to open low on Fed concerns
Stock index futures fell overnight amid heightened concern over interest rate policy and the independence of the Federal Reserve following reports the Department of Justice has opened a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
Futures based on the S&P 500 fell 0.6%, while Nasdaq-100 futures dropped 0.8% and Dow futures slipped 0.7%. The market is coming off a week that saw the S&P 500 index and Dow industrials close at record highs. The U.S. dollar index fell 0.3% after four straight days of gains.
February WTI crude oil futures fell 49 cents to $58.63 after earlier climbing to a five-week high. Gold futures rose over 2% to about $4,592 per ounce after earlier touching a record above $4,600 as escalating tensions between the Trump administration and the Fed fueled safe-haven buying.
What else I’m reading at www.FarmFutures.com this morning:
- USDA flips food pyramid, puts animal protein first. New Trump administration dietary guidelines boost protein recommendations 50% and embrace beef tallow, butter and full-fat dairy, which industry experts say could lead to a surge in meat demand.