Farmfutures

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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.

What we’re watching

Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins on Monday announced a $12 billion direct aid package for U.S. farmers hurt by trade disruptions, high input costs and slumping grain prices. The so-called bridge payments are expected to be distributed by the end of February and, according to President Trump, “would not be possible without tariffs.” Policy Editor Joshua Baethge breaks down the details.

USDA may cut supply forecast amid strong exports

March corn futures rose 0.5 cent to $4.4425 late in overnight trading after shedding 1 cent Monday to $4.4375, the contract’s second-straight daily decline. Futures are down about cents from a four-month intraday high of $4.57 posted November 14.

Corn futures extended sideways trade ahead of today’s USDA report, with March futures continuing to gyrate around the middle of the past month’s range. Tough resistance just above $4.50 looms just above current prices, though the market retains a few key near-term support points, including last week’s low at $4.4175 and the 50-day simple moving average at $4.41.

Other chart levels to watch include the 200-day SMA ($4.4725) and a four-week low of $4.3450 on November 24. There’s always potential a USDA surprise could push the market above or below the current range, but the December Supply and Demand update tends to generate limited response.

Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price fell almost 1.25 cents Monday to $3.9825. Monday’s cash average was about 45.5 cents below March futures, narrowing from 55 cents a month earlier.

Firm cash markets and strong exports continue to underpin corn while bearish longer-term supply fundamentals stemming from a likely-record U.S. harvest cap price upside. Today’s monthly USDA Supply and Demand update, scheduled for 11 a.m. CT, could bring some modest adjustments but historically has been a non-event in terms of market reaction.

Given a record export pace, USDA may reduce its forecast for U.S. corn stocks at the end of the 2025-26 marketing year. Stocks may be lowered about 8 million bushels to 2.146 billion bushels, based on a Bloomberg survey of analysts, but such a number would still put supplies heading for a seven-year high. Exports could be increased from an already-record 3.075 billion bushels.

U.S. corn shipments fell for the third consecutive week in early December but continued to sharply outpace last year’s levels, based on USDA’s latest inspectations data.

Corn inspected for export totaled 1.453 million metric tons (57.2 million bushels) in the week ended December 4, down 11% from the prior week but up 36% from the same week a year earlier. Mexico was the top destination at 520,691 metric tons followed by Japan at 310,828 MT.

For the 2025-26 marketing year to date, shipments now total 812.2 million bushels, up 69% from the same period in 2024-25 and 26% of USDA’s record full-year forecast, 3.075 billion bushels.

Late last week, USDA released long-term corn, soybean and wheat baseline estimates for acreage, production and other key metrics for coming years. USDA projected U.S. corn plantings in 2026 at 95 million acres, which would be down 3.7% from an 89-year high at 98.7 million acres in 2025 but still rank as the fourth-highest planted acreage since 1940. The 2026-27 harvest is seen dropping to 15.82 billion bushels from 16.75 billion bushels this year.

The forecast has the average farm price for corn rising slightly to $4.10 in 2026-27 from $4 in 2025-26 and climbing modestly the rest of the decade amid increasing export and ethanol demand.

Elsewhere, corn exports from Brazil, the world’s second-largest exporter, are expected to fall short of expectations at the end of this year, according to the Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters, known as Anec. In an updated forecast, the group cut its corn shipment projection by 1 MMT for 2025, to 41 MMT, citing increasing demand from domestic ethanol and meat industries.

Soybean futures extend nosedive

January soybeans fell 6.75 cents to $10.87 late overnight after earlier dropping to $10.8625, the contract’s lowest intraday price since $10.7050 on October 30. A loss today would be the market’s sixth decline in the past seven days.

Soybeans’ slumping technicals crumbled further overnight as January futures pushed under the 50-day SMA ($10.8950), a key chart point the contract hasn’t closed below since October 17. Futures have tumbled over 82 cents, or 7%, from a 17-month high of $11.6950 on November 18.

The confirmation of a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern early this week is adding pressure. Bears may now be targeting the $10.70 area, which marks the top of a gap left in the daily bar chart from late October, as well as the 100-day SMA (about $10.67).

Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price fell about 11.5 cents Monday to $10.23. Monday’s average was about 70.75 cents below January futures, narrowing from 74.25 cents a month earlier.

January soybean meal fell $3 to $303.30 per ton after earlier touching the contract’s lowest intraday price since October 28. A loss today would be the meal market’s eighth consecutive daily decline. January soybean oil rose 1 point to 51.19 cents per pound after slipping 1% Monday to end near a two-week low.

Soybean futures remain burdened by sluggish exports and longer-term bearish supply fundamentals with another record harvest likely from South America next year. Further pressure overnight followed reports Argentina will lower export taxes on grains and oilseeds, with soybeans cut from 26% to 24%. The reduced taxes could lead to heightened export competition for the U.S.

China has accelerated purchases of U.S. soybeans in recent weeks in the wake of a trade truce with the U.S., but traders are dubious whether Chinese purchases will reach the 12-MMT near-term target the White House touted.

Early Monday, USDA reported private exporter soybean sales totaling 132,000 metric tons (4.85 million bushels) for delivery to China during 2025-26. Monday’s announcement followed several previous USDA sales reports over the past three weeks and brought recent confirmed Chinese purchases to a total of just over 2.84 MMT (104.4 million bushels). That’s less than one-fourth of the 12 MMT the White House said China would purchase by the end of 2025.

In today’s report, USDA may increase its estimate for 2025-26 U.S. ending soybean stocks to reflect the sharply weaker export pace so far this year. Analysts on average see ending stocks revised about 16 million bushels higher to 306 million bushels, based on the Bloomberg survey. Brazil’s crop could be boosted slightly from USDA’s current 175-MMT forecast (6.43 billion bushels).

USDA’s weekly export inspections report showed U.S. soybean shipments continue to severely lag last year’s levels. However, Monday’s update did include China as a soybean destination for the first time in the 2025-26 marketing year.

Soybean export inspections during the week ended December 4 totaled 1.018 MMT (37.4million bushels), up 9.2% from the prior week but down 41% from the same week in 2024. Mexico was the largest destination at 132,050 MT followed by 119,895 MT to China. Based on USDA inspections, soybean shipments through early December totaled 473.9 million bushels, down 45% from the same period in 2024-25 and the slowest pace in at least 12 years.

“While it’s great to finally see the confirmation of bushels flowing to China once again… the reality of the hole we’re digging out of appears to be setting in for the trade,” StoneX analyst Arlan Suderman said in a note.

Also, USDA’s baseline forecast released last week pegged 2026 U.S. soybean plantings at 85 million acres, up 4.8% from 81.1 million acres in 2025, and next year’s harvest at 4.465 billion bushels, which would be up 5% from this year and a record. The average farm soybean price in 2026-27 is predicted to drop to $10.30 from $10.50 in 2025-26.

Elsewhere, weather conditions appear to be improving for South American crops with frequent rain forecast the next two weeks in several key Brazil growing areas. Argentina is also expected to receive timely rainfall.

China’s soybean imports reached their highest November level since 2021, with full-year arrivals set for a record amid strong purchases from South America and a U.S. trade truce, Reuters reported, citing customs data. The world’s top soybean buyer brought in 8.11 MMT in November, up 13.4% from a year earlier. In the first 11 months of the year, China’s soybean imports rose 6.9% from a year earlier to 103.8 MMT, the customs data showed.

“November soybean imports came in slightly below our expectations,” said Rosa Wang, an analyst at Shanghai-based agro-consultancy JCI, according to Reuters. “Looking ahead to (full year) 2025, we expect China’s soybean imports to reach a record high - potentially exceeding 110 million tons - driven by strong commercial buying from Brazil as well as arrivals of U.S. soybeans.”

USDA could trim wheat supply outlook

March SRW wheat fell 2 cents to $5.3275 after dropping 1 cent Monday to $5.3475, a two-week closing low. The most-active contract is probing the lower end of the range that’s held since the last half of November. A push under near-term support around $5.30, near last month’s low, could prompt bears to push the market back toward the lower-$5.20s that traded during October.

March HRW futures fell 1.5 cents to $5.25 after falling 4.75 cents Monday to settle at a two-week low. March spring wheat rose 1.75 cents to $5.73 after shedding 1.75 cents Monday to end at the contract’s lowest close since October 30.

Today’s USDA report holds potential for some mildly price-friendly adjustments for wheat, but longer-term supply fundamentals remain bearish with the U.S. facing stiff competition from top global producers.

USDA may slightly reduce its 2025-26 U.S. ending stocks forecast by about 7 million bushels, reflecting strong exports. In November, USDA boosted ending stocks forecast by 57 million bushels to 901 million bushels, a six-year high.

U.S. wheat shipments rebounded modestly early this month following a brief downturn in late November, based on USDA export inspections.

Wheat export inspections for the week ended December 4 totaled 393,341 MT (14.5 million bushels), up 2% from the previous week and up 59% from the same week in 2024. Mexico was the top destination at 75,789 MT followed by Indonesia at 75,174 MT.

For 2025-26 to date, wheat shipments now total 500.9 million bushels, up 21% from the same period in 2024-25 and running at a 12-year high.

More snow and frigid temperatures for Midwest

After a brief warmup today and tomorrow, temperatures across the Midwest will quickly nosedive back below freezing across much of the Midwest, with high temperatures in the teens and single-digits possible for the Chicago, Des Moines and Minneapolis areas over the weekend. The region could also see more snow.

The National Weather Service’s latest 6-to-10-day and 8-to-14-day outlooks suggest below-normal temperatures will persist through the middle of the month before extreme conditions ease somewhat, with more limited precipitation prospects. The latest outlooks, which cover December 14-22, call for normal to below-normal precipitation for most of the Midwest and Plains.

Wall Street watching Fed policy meeting

Stock index futures were little changed overnight as investors looked toward the start of the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting today. The Federal Open Market Committee, the central bank’s policy-setting arm, is widely expected to lower its benchmark funds rate for the third time in four months amid concern over a slowing job market.

Futures based on the S&P 500 index and the Dow both rose less than 0.1%, while Nasdaq-100 futures were little changed. The U.S. dollar index was little changed and remained near a five-week low hit late last week.

January WTI crude oil futures rose 25 cents to $59.13 per barrel. Gold futures rose 0.3% to about $4,213 per ounce.

What else I’m reading at www.FarmFutures.com this morning: