Farmfutures

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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.

What we’re watching

The fast-evolving Middle East war, which fueled last week’s grain market rally, is just one of several variables for farmers to keep an eye on in coming days. Tuesday’s monthly WASDE update, for example, and then USDA’s much-anticipated Prospective Plantings report March 31. How will prices respond? Run through a quick watch-list with Total Farm Marketing’s Naomi Blohm.

Corn futures hit highest level since late May

May corn futures rose 5.25 cents to $4.6575 per bushel late in overnight trading after earlier jumping to $4.76, the highest intraday price since late May. Futures surged 12 cents last week to post a fourth weekly advance in the past five weeks. December futures rose 6.25 cents to $4.9075 after earlier touching $4.9850.

Corn futures gapped higher at the opening of overnight trading as the market extended bullish momentum from last week’s spike higher. Futures have jumped over 25 cents, or almost 6%, from last week’s lows. Upside levels to watch include intraday highs from last May and April at $4.7925 and $4.88, respectively. But prices are approaching overbought levels and could be vulnerable to profit-taking. Downside levels to watch include the overnight gap between $4.62 and $4.63.

Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price rose about 6.5 cents Friday to just over $4.1825, up 12 cents for the week and a nine-month high. Friday’s average was about 41.25 cents below May futures, narrowing from 42.25 cents a week earlier.

Grain futures continued to follow the oil market higher overnight amid ongoing concern over disruptions from the Middle East war. Three top OPEC producers, Iraq, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, lowered production, while the Strait of Hormuz remains largely shut to tanker traffic.

April WTI futures were up over $12, or 13.5%, at about $103 per barrel after earlier reaching $119.48, the highest for a most-active futures since June 2022. Crude futures gained almost $24, or 36%, last week. The oil rally has fueled a wave of speculator buying in grain markets this month, forcing out shorts and lifting managed money to its first net long position in corn futures since late December.

Crude’s rally “is pulling the grains and oilseeds market with it as traders and ‘algos’ pile into the space,” StoneX analyst Mike O’Dea said in a report Friday.

USDA’s Supply and Demand report Tuesday isn’t expected to show any major revisions, though any changes to South American corn and soybean production bear watching. Prospective Plantings and quarterly Grain Stocks reports March 31 loom as major price influencers for spring markets.

Strong export data also fueled buying in corn futures last week and traders will look for further confirmation of a record demand pace in today’s weekly inspections report.

A week ago, USDA said corn inspected for export during the week ended February 26 totaled 1.859 million metric tons (73.2 million bushels), down 8% from the previous week but up 38% from the same week a year earlier. For 2025-26 to date, shipments totaled 1.56 billion bushels, up 45% from the same period in 2024-25 and 47% of USDA’s full-year export projection.

USDA has raised its 2025-26 corn export forecast four times since August and may need to make further upward revisions, analysts say. The most recent was a 100-million-bushel increase, to a record 3.3 billion bushels, in February’s Supply and Demand report.

Elsewhere, Brazil exported 61 million bushels of corn in February, a year-over-year increase of 9.3% but down from January. If this trend continues in March, USDA could up its estimates for U.S. corn exports to fill the gap in global supplies.

Also, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange reported that 7.2% of Argentina’s 2025-26 corn crop has been harvested. The group left its production estimates unchanged, at 2.245 billion bushels. That production potential is robust but remains a bit below record levels harvested in 2020-21.

After two days of debate last week, the House Ag Committee approved a Republican authored farm bill, moving the long-awaited legislation closer to a full House floor vote. The bill is “will move the needle for farmers, ranchers and rural Americans,” committee chair Glenn “GT” Thompson said in a statement. Get the details from Farm Progress Policy Editor Joshua Baethge.

Soybeans trading near 22-month highs

May soybeans rose 12.5 cents to $12.1325 overnight after earlier rising to $12.3375, the highest intraday price for a most active contract since late-May 2024. Futures jumped 30 cents, or 2.6%, last week to record a fifth straight weekly advance. November soybeans rose 9.5 cents to $11.5625 after earlier hitting $11.7250.

Soybean futures also gapped higher at the overnight open and breached the key $12 level to extend the sharp rally of the past month, but prices have moved further into overbought territory, which could lead to some profit-taking this week. Upside levels to watch include the May 2024 highs around $12.58, based on continuation charts. Prices have come off sharply from the initial overnight high and may eventually test the gap between $12.0275 and $12.1050.

Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price gained 21.25 cents Friday to $11.2675, up almost 33.75 cents for the week. Friday’s average was about 74 cents below May futures, narrowing from 77.75 cents a week earlier.

March soybean meal rose $1.60 to $318.80 per ton after adding 2.6% Friday in a rebound from two-week lows. March soyoil rose 140 points to 67.98 cents per pound after earlier reaching 69.91 cents, the highest intraday price for a most-active contract since November 2022.

Soybeans extended gains overnight behind rallying crude oil and soyoil prices and concern over Iran war disruptions. Expectations for sharply higher biofuels blending mandates continue to add support. Managed money funds have been active buyers in the soy complex, expanding their net long in soybean futures to over 187,000 contracts at the start of last week, the highest since early December, based on data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Traders will watch for fresh export numbers this week and any changes in USDA’s Supply and Demand balance sheet. The market will also keep an eye on production prospects from Brazil’s soybean harvest, which was nearing its halfway point late last week.

A week ago, soybean inspections for the week ended February 26 totaled 1.138 MMT (41.8 million bushels), up 67% from the previous week and up 62% from the same week a year earlier. China was the top destination at 734,698 MT. For 2025-26 to date, shipments totaled 962 million bushels, down 30% from the same period in 2024-25.

Based on last Thursday’s export sales report, USDA-confirmed China purchases for 2025-26 total about 10.82 MMT (397.4 million bushels). That still leaves China’s purchase commitments at about half the roughly 21.2 MMT sold by this point in 2024-25.

Last week, Agroconsult raised its 2025-26 Brazilian soybean production estimate by 850,000 MT to 183.1 MMT (6.73 billion bushels). The consultant is running a crop tour through Brazil’s soybean country that has yet to visit the Rio Grande do Sul region, where yields are believed to have suffered from dryness. Agroconsult’s forecast is above USDA’s current record 180-MMT projection.

Wheat futures supported by fund short covering

March SRW wheat rose 4 cents to $6.2074 after earlier touching $6.4175, the contract’s highest intraday price since $6.4525 on June 20. Futures gained 25.25 cents, or 4.3%, last week (from $5.9150) to post the market’s fourth consecutive weekly advance.

March HRW wheat rose 5.75 cents to $6.2925 after earlier reaching $6.4750, the contract’s highest intraday price since $6.48 in April 2025. March spring wheat rose 9.25 cents to $6.5225 after reaching $6.6925, an eight-month intraday high.

Wheat’s explosive rally gained momentum late last week as strengthening technicals and soaring crude oil prices prompted speculators to rapidly pare back what was a historically-large net short position. Funds bought an estimated 31,000 SRW futures contracts last Thursday and Friday, according to StoneX.

Charts have turned increasingly bullish after both May HRW and SRW futures closed above the psychologically important $6 level. Concerns over slumping crop ratings in Plains winter wheat country also supported prices last week. In HRW futures, funds have shifted to a net-long position the past two weeks after having held a net short since August 2023, based on CFTC data.

Concerns over war-related disruptions to energy shipments and the global ag supply chain have overshadowed, for now, largely bearish wheat fundamentals. Global wheat supplies remain abundant and U.S. wheat exports have been eroding.

A week ago, USDA reported weekly wheat export inspections sank to a four-week low at 344,272 MT (12.6 million bushels), down 39% from the previous week and down 12% from the same week a year earlier. For 2025-26 to date, wheat shipments totaled 684 million bushels, up 19% from the same period in 2024-25 and 76% of USDA’s full-year target of 900 million bushels.

Elsewhere, French farm office FranceAgriMer reported 84% of the country’s soft wheat crop was rated in good-to-excellent condition, unchanged from the prior week. Durum wheat was 81% good-to-excellent.

Last week, Statistics Canada estimated the country’s farmers will seed 26.74 million acres to all varieties of wheat in 2026, slightly above analysts’ expectations for a figure closer to 26.4 million acres. Spring wheat was estimated at 18.78 million acres, slightly below 2025.

Wet week ahead for eastern Corn Belt

Much of the eastern Corn Belt and the Southeast will receive precipitation this week, and parts of the Southern Plains could also see some rainfall relief. Heaviest amounts are expected across Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio, where 0.5 inch to as much as 2 inches are possible today through Thursday, based on the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA.

Later this month, conditions are expected to turn warmer and drier across the Plains and western Corn Belt, according to the National Weather Service’s latest 6-to-14-day and 8-to-14-day outlooks. The latter forecast, which covers March 16-22, calls for below-normal precipitation chances and above-normal temperatures for most of those regions.

Soaring oil prices weigh on Wall Street

Stock index futures slumped overnight as the rally in oil prices drove concerns over rising inflation and economic slowdown.

Futures based on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 indexes each fell about 1.2%, while Dow futures also dropped 1.2%. The U.S. dollar index was up almost 0.3% after earlier touching the highest level since late November.

April WTI crude oil futures surged over $12, or 13%, to over $103 per barrel after earlier reaching $119.48. Gold futures fell over 1.3% to about $5,089 per ounce.

What else I’m reading at www.FarmFutures.com this morning: