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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.

What we’re watching

China sharply ramped up buying of U.S. soybeans over the past, a welcome development for farmers. However, there’s a risk that China-related “euphoria” may have led to an “overzealous rally” that’s now made U.S. prices relatively unappealing for global buyers, Total Farm Marketing’s Naomi Blohm says in an Ag Marketing IQ post. She advises farmers to be mindful of sales targets with a correction likely underway.

Corn futures near four-week lows

December corn futures fell 0.5 cent to $4.26 late overnight after earlier dropping to $4.2525 the contract’s lowest intraday price since October 24. The lead contract is down from $4.3025 at the end of last week. March futures fell 0.75 cent to $4.47 after earlier touching a four-week low.

Corn technicals took a bearish turn during Thursday’s poor performance, which saw December futures break below the range of the past month and post consecutive closes below the 10- and 20-day simple moving averages (SMAs), currently $4.32 and $4.3175, respectively. A chart breakdown could gain further momentum if December futures close under the 50-day SMA ($4.2050). Additional downside targets to watch include the 100-day SMA ($4.1950).

Further weakness next week may confirm a double-top high last week at $4.4275 as a price peak for December futures.

Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price fell about 3 cents Thursday to $3.8825. Thursday’s cash average was about 38.25 cents below December futures, narrowing from 39 cents a week earlier.

Futures extended the weakness of the previous two days overight as the market followed the lead of soybeans. Corn prices have been underpinned by firm cash markets, strong exports and easing harvest pressure. But with a lack of fresh bullish news and bearish longer-term supply fundamentals, the market is giving buyers less and less motivation.

Price upside has been stymied by an outlook for a record harvest that’s expected to boost U.S. supplies to a seven-year high in 2026. Last Friday, USDA estimated the average U.S. yield at a higher-than-expected 186 bushels per acre while pegging production at 16.752 billion bushels, which would be up12% from 2024’s harvest.

USDA export numbers reported Thursday were strong but too stale to have a market impact. Early Thursday, USDA reported net U.S. corn export sales of 2.26 million metric tons (89 million bushels) for the week ended October 2, at the high end of trade expectations that ranged from 1.4 MMT to 2.5 MMT. USDA plans several weekly export sales releases in coming weeks as the agency whittles down a backlog from the recently ended government shutdown.

That means the market won’t have a clear picture of current sales commitments until early 2026. But based on USDA export inspections, corn shipments for the 2025-26 marketing year to date are up 73% from the same period in 2024-25.

S&P Global said it expects U.S. farmers to reduce 2026 corn plantings by 3.8% from this year to 95 million acres while increasing soybean plantings. The firm’s 2026 figure would still rank among the top five planting years in the past two decades.

Despite this week’s price pullback, the corn market retains a bullish story thanks to record export demand. Corn “is America's strong suit,” analyst Mike Pearson said in our latest Ag Marketing IQ In Depth video. “We are leading the pack.” As the year draws to a close, Pearson suggests farmers keep eyes open for opportunities to lock in higher prices resulting from any fund-driven rallies.

Soybeans poised to break five-week upswing

January soybeans fell 3.5 cents to $11.19 after retreating 13.75 cents Thursday to $11.2250, the contract’s third straight daily decline and its lowest close since November 7. Futures are down from $11.2450 at the end of last week and poised to break a five-week winning streak.

Soybeans’ near-term technical posture eroded this week, with January futures on track for a fourth straight daily decline and down about 50 cents from a 17-month intraday high at $11.6950 reached overnight Tuesday. Continued weakness could fuel ideas the market established a near-term top at this week’s highs. January futures overnight pushed under the 20-day SMA ($11.23), a level the contract hasn’t closed below since October 16.

Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price fell about 13.5 cents Thursday to $10.4925. Thursday’s average was about 73.25 cents below January futures, tightening from 74.25 cents a week earlier.

China’s accelerating soybean purchases this week were encouraging for farmers but led to a buy-rumor, sell-news market reaction, indicating additional large-scale purchases will be needed to prevent further downside in futures.

Early Thursday, USDA confirmed another 462,000 MT of U.S. soybean sales to China for delivery during the 2025-26 marketing year. Thursday’s announcement followed several previous flash sales reports and brought recent total Chinese purchases to 1.816 MMT (66.8 million bushels).

That’s still short of the 12 MMT the White House has said China will buy from the U.S. by the end of this year, but the accelerating pace of purchases offers hope the gap can be at least partially closed.

USDA reported net U.S. soybean sales totaling 919,500 MT (33.8 million bushels) during the week ended October 2, toward the low end of expectations that ranged from 600,000 MT to 1.6 MMT. Based USDA’s export inspections, soybean shipments through mid-November totaled 371.4 million bushels, down 43% from the same period in 2024-25.

Soyoil futures were pressured this week by reports the Trump administration is considering delaying until 2027 or 2028 its proposed cuts to incentives for imported biofuels amid pressure from U.S. oil refiners, who argue the move could raise costs and tighten fuel supplies.

China’s recent U.S. soybean buying binge was welcomed by farmers, as prices extended a rally that’s approaching $12 per bushel. But be warned: China is unlikely to live up to reported purchase targets, according to Karen Braun of Zaner Ag Hedge. “We’ve seen this movie before,” Braun said in the latest FP Next podcast. “It doesn’t make sense for China to come in and buy these soybeans.”

Wheat futures hit three-week low overnight

March SRW wheat fell 3.25 cents to $5.3750 after earlier dropping to $5.3575, the contract’s lowest intraday price since October 31. Futures are still up about 29 cents, or almost 6%, from a contract low of $5.0850 posted October 14.

March HRW futures fell 2.75 cents to $5.21 after sinking 8 cents Thursday to a four-week closing low at $5.2375. March spring wheat fell 0.75 cent to $5.7975 as the market extended a pullback from a seven-week closing high on Tuesday.

Wheat futures followed corn and soybeans lower overnight and also remain burdened by ample U.S. supplies and other bearish fundamentals.

Rainfall expected in the Central and Southern Plains this week should support early crop development, but little precipitation is seen for Northern Plains and temperatures next week are expected to take a sharp turn lower.

USDA on Thursday reported net U.S. wheat sales totaling 887,900 MT (32.6 million bushels) during the week ended October 2, topping expectations that ranged from 350,000 MT to 600,000 MT and a marketing-year high. Based on export inspections, U.S. wheat shipments to date totaled 445.2 million bushels, up 19.3% from the same period in 2024-25.

Also Thursday, USDA reported a private exporter sale of 132,000 MT (4.85 million bushels) of white wheat to China.

Elsewhere, SovEcon raised its estimate for the 2025 Russian wheat crop by 800,000 MT, or 0.9%, from a previous estimate to 88.6 MMT (3.23 billion bushels). The firm also released its first 2026 production forecast, which came in at 83.8 MMT.

The International Grains Council boosted its global wheat production forecast for 2025-26 to 830 MMT (30.5 billion bushels) up 3 MMT, or 0.4%, from the previous forecast. The group’s new-crop outlook would mark a roughly 3.6% increase from USDA’s 2024-25 production estimate.

Colder Thanksgiving week ahead for Midwest

The Central and Southern Plains and the eastern Corn Belt may continue to receive rainfall into early next week, with potential amounts of 025 inch to 1.25 inch seen for Kansas, Oklahoma and Missouri today through Monday, based on NOAA’s 72-hour map. Illinois, Indiana and Ohio may receive similar amounts. The northern Plains and northern Midwest likely will remain dry.

Colder air will expand from the Northern Plains across the Corn Belt stating right before Thanksgiving, pushing temperatures below normal for the entire region into early December, based on the National Weather Service’s 6-to-10-day and 8-to-14-day outlooks. Both outlooks, which cover November 26-December 4, continue to call for above-normal precipitation across most of the central U.S.

Stock index futures mixed after tech selloff

Stock index futures were mixed overnight in the wake of a tech-led selloff on Thursday that sent shares of major companies like Nvidia tumbling from initial gains.

Futures based on the S&P 500 index rose about 0.1%, while Nasdaq-100 futures were little changed and Dow futures added 0.5%. On Thursday, the underlying S&P 500 index closed at its lowest level in over two months.

The U.S. dollar index was up less than 0.1% after earlier climbing to its highest point in nearly six months. January WTI crude oil futures dropped 58 cents to $58.42 per barrel. Gold futures slipped 0.1% to about $4,053 per ounce.

What else I’m reading at www.FarmFutures.com this morning: