Farmfutures

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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.

What we’re watching

Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins earlier this week hinted at government assistance soon to help distressed farmers, dubbed a “bridge payment” to help offset this year’s losses. But details remain sketchy, and Rollins continued to point fingers at very much no-longer-president Biden. What kind of numbers can farmers expect? Policy Editor Joshua Baethge examines a few key questions.

Corn trading sideways amid slow holiday markets

March corn futures fell 1.75 cents to $4.450 late in overnight trading after climbing 3.75 cents Thursday to $4.4725, up from a one-week low close on Wednesday. Futures are down from $4.4775 at the end of last week.

Corn extended sideways, back-and-forth action overnight as March futures hovered around the middle of the past three weeks’ range, marked by a four-month high at $4.57 November 14 and a four-week low of $4.3450 on November 24. The $4.50 area, near this week’s high, continues to pose tough resistance, along with the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $4.4750.

Sideways trade may persist ahead of USDA’s monthly Supply and Demand update Tuesday, absent any sharp moves in soybeans or wheat. Near-term support comes in at the 20- and 10-day SMAs ($4.4475 and $4.4375 respectively), along with this week’s low ($4.4175).

Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price rose about 4 cents Thursday to $4.0175. Thursday’s cash average was about 45.5 cents below March futures, tightening from 53.25 cents a month earlier.

Corn futures are locked in a sideways pattern as volume dwindles ahead of the year-end holidays and fresh news remains scarce. Strength in cash markets and robust exports continue to underpin prices ahead of Tuesday’s monthly USDA Supply and Demand update, though that report historically generates little market reaction.

Analysts still expected further downward revisions to corn yield and production numbers, but USDA’s updated survey-based estimates are likely at least a month away.

USDA export numbers continue to underscore a record demand pace that may prompt the agency to revise its full-year forecast, currently a record 3.075 billion bushels, even higher.

Net U.S. corn sales during the week ended October 30 totaled 1.995 million metric tons (78.5 million bushels), USDA reported early Thursday. Sales were at the high end of expectations that ranged from 800,000 metric tons (MT) to 2.5 MMT. Corn sales commitments (including accumulated exports) for the 2025-26 marketing year through October 30 totaled 1.47 billion bushels, up 31% from the same period in 2024-25.

Corn futures gained a boost Thursday after USDA reported private exporter corn sales totaling 392,500 MT (15.5 million bushels) for delivery to Mexico during the 2025-26 marketing year, along with sales of 100,800 MT to Colombia for 2025-26 delivery.

Volatility in today’s grain market’s is a given. That’s why executing a thoughtful marketing strategy—going beyond simply “hoping for better prices”—is essential, Advance Trading’s J.D. Schuerman says. Futures and options, used properly and judiciously, can keep upside opportunity on the table, J.D. says in an Ag Marketing IQ post.

Soybeans ending week on soft note

January soybeans fell 2.25 cents to $11.1725 late overnight after adding 3.75 cents Thursday in a rebound from a brief early dip to a two-week intraday low at $11.14. The most-active contract is still down from $11.3775 at the end of last week and poised to halt a seven-week winning streak.

Soybean futures are ending the week on a soft note with January futures on track for a fourth decline in the past five days. Upside momentum appears to have been exhausted, or at least severely depleted, with futures down over 52 cents, or 4.5%, from a 17-month high near $11.6950 on November 18.

Further weakness the next few days could confirm a potentially bearish head-and-shoulders formation on the daily bar chart. Thursday’s low at $11.14 and a late-November low around $11.13 mark near-term support, and a break under those levels could have bears targeting the $11 area.

Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price rose about 3.75 cents Thursday to $10.4875. Thursday’s average was about 70.75 cents below January futures, narrowing from 75 cents a month earlier.

January soybean meal fell $1.20 to $310.00 per ton after slipping 10 cents Thursday for the contract’s fifth consecutive daily decline and its lowest close in five weeks. January soybean oil rose 36 points to 52.15 cents per pound after gaining 12 points Thursday.

Soybean futures remain burdened by a lack so far this week of any additional announcements of sales to China. The most-recent confirmation came a week ago, when USDA reported another so-called flash sale of 312,000 MT of U.S. soybeans to China during 2025-26. Friday’s announcement followed several previous so-called flash sales reports over the past two weeks and brought recent confirmed Chinese purchases to a total of 2.25 MMT (82.7 million bushels). That’s still well-under the 12-MMT initial target the Trump administration initially touted.

On Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said China remained on pace to fulfill its near-term commitments that resulted from a trade truce with the U.S. in late October. The White House had previously said China would purchase 12 MMT of U.S. soybeans by year-end, but Bessent said the total should be reached by the end of February.

“Even if China does end up meeting its 12 MMT commitment by the end of February… the sales pace will have plenty of work to do to meet the already-conservative USDA export estimate for 2025-26 on that side,” StoneX analyst Arlan Suderman said in a note. In November, USDA cut its 2025-26 U.S. soybean export forecast to 1.635 billion bushels, a 13-year low.

Early Thursday, USDA said net U.S. soybean sales during the week ended October 30 totaled 1.249 MMT (45.9 million bushels), around the middle of trade guesses that ranged from 600,000 MT to 2 MMT. Soybean sales commitments for 2025-26 through October 30 totaled 613.8 million bushels, down 38% from the same period in 2024-25 and a 17-year low for this point in the marketing year.

USDA’s report for the week ended October 30 included outstanding soybean sales of 232,000 MT to China, this year’s first official recorded U.S. sales to the world’s biggest soybean importer. At the same point a year earlier, shipments and sales commitments to China totaled 12.3 MMT.

Wheat pressured by heavy global stocks

March SRW wheat fell 0.25 cent to $5.40 after adding 2 cents Thursday to $5.4025. Futures are up from a five-week intraday low at $5.2975 posted Tuesday and up slightly from $5.3850 at the end of last week.

March HRW futures rose 1.5 cents to $5.3550 after gaining 4.5 cents Thursday to $5.34, the contract’s highest close since November 18. March spring wheat rose 1 cent to $5.74 after dropping 3.25 cents Thursday to $5.73, the contract’s lowest close since November 7.

Wheat futures extended sideways trade overnight after generating modest fund buying Thursday, which followed a brief rally earlier this week sparked by concerns the Russia-Ukraine war could disrupt Black Sea grain shipping. But rallies remain selling opportunities amid bearish fundamentals, with global production on track for a a record high for the sixth year in a row in 2026.

This week brought more reminders of a heavy supply outlook weighing on prices. On Thursday, Statistics Canada boosted its forecast for the country’s 2026 wheat crop to a record 39.96 MMT (1.47 billion bushels), up 3.3 MMT, or 9%, from a September forecast. The agency’s projected crop would be up over 10% from 2025.

Elsewhere, SovEcon reported Russian wheat export values have dropped about $4 per MT since mid-November, to near $228 to $230 per ton. The drop may reflect pressure from Argentina, where a bumper harvest has pushed export offers down to roughly $208 per MT, according to Grain Market Insider.

Net U.S. wheat sales during the week ended October 30 totaled 505,400 MT (18.6 million bushels), in the upper half of trade expectations. Wheat sales commitments (including accumulated exports) for the 2025-26 marketing year through October 30 totaled 617.4 million bushels, up 22% from the same period in 2024-25 and a nine-year high.

Despite the war with Russia that’s dragged on for nearly four years, Ukraine’s ag sector continues to show resilience and remains a key player global grain markets. Ukraine ranks No. 6 in global wheat exports and No. 4 in global corn exports. That’s just one reason why U.S. farmers still need to pay attention to what’s happening in the Black Sea region.

Midwest cold to persist through mid-December

Below-normal temperatures are expected to persist across the eastern half of the U.S. through the middle of this month, with the greatest cold extremes seen expanding from the Great Lakes into the Midwest, based on the National Weather Service’s 6-to-10-day outlook, which covers December 10-14.

The same outlook holds above-normal precipitation prospects for the Northern Plains and northern Midwest, with near- to normal to below-normal chances further south. The 8-to-14-day outlook, which covers December 12-18, also calls for below-normal temperatures.

Wall Street poised for firm open

Stock index futures firmed overnight as investors waited for a key inflation report that may influence investor expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate policy. Later this morning, the Commerce Department is scheduled to report the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

Futures based on the S&P 500 index rose 0.2%, while Nasdaq-100 futures added almost 0.4% and Dow futures climbed 0.1%. The U.S. dollar index was little changed and near a five-week low reached Thursday.

January WTI crude oil futures fell 19 cents to $59.48 per barrel. Gold futures rose 0.3% to about $4,240 per ounce.

What else I’m reading at www.FarmFutures.com this morning: