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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.
What we’re watching
The soybean-to-corn price ratio, a long-followed gauge of farmer planting intentions, suggests a dead heat so far in 2026, not favoring either crop, yet, according to Purdue’s Michael Langemeier. It’s currently just under 2.4, slightly under historical averages. But it’s early, and the ratio is worth following in the months ahead as markets shift and planting intentions come into sharper focus.
Corn strengthens overnight ahead of ethanol update
March corn futures rose 3.5 cents to $4.2725 per bushel in late overnight trading after easing 1 cent Tuesday to $4.2375, down from Friday’s one-week high close.
Corn extended the past week’s modest rebound in overnight activity, with March futures now up over 9 cents from a five-month low at $4.1725 hit January 14. The recent gains reflect stabilization and perhaps even a near-term bottom as traders look beyond last week’s surprisingly bearish USDA data. March futures are nearing the 10-day simple moving average (SMA) at $4.2950, and a close above that level would further improve the technical posture. Longer-term, further price downside remains a risk.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price fell about 1.25 cents Tuesday to just under $3.86. Tuesday’s average was about 37.75 cents below March futures, narrowing slightly from 38.25 cents a week earlier.
Corn futures climbed overnight with help from spillover support from strength in the soy complex. Traders await demand-related updates, including the weekly ethanol production numbers from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) later this morning.
Ethanol output surged early this year as cheap corn and strong exports kept margins firm. A week ago, EIA reported U.S. ethanol production reached a record high at 1.196 million barrels a day during the week ended January 9.
Exports remain in market focus with USDA forecasting a record year for corn. U.S. corn shipments dipped slightly last week but continue to run sharply above last year’s levels amid strong demand from Mexico and other top importers. However, exports have shown some recent signs of leveling off from a robust pace much of last year.
USDA reported corn export inspections totaling 1.484 million metric tons (58.4 million bushels) for the week ended January 15, down 1.3% from the previous week and down 3.8% from the same week in 2025. Mexico was the top destination at 401,809 MT. For the 2025-26 marketing year to date, shipments total 1.178 billion bushels, up 55% from the same period in 2024-25 and 37% of USDA’s full-year export projection, a record 3.2 billion bushels.
While shipments are running ahead of the pace needed to hit USDA’s full-year target, “that's not a guarantee” the U.S. will ship more than 3.2 billion bushels this year, StoneX analyst Arlan Suderman said in a report. “We've had other years when we had shipped a higher percent of final corn shipments by mid-January, but it does increase the odds of higher shipments,” he said.
“In the end, that will likely be determined by Brazil's winter corn growing season for the crop that has just started to be planted,” Suderman added. “A bumper crop there could give us a weak finish to our marketing year shipments, while a poor crop could boost our numbers even higher.”
Last week’s unexpectedly bearish USDA numbers likely will limit rally attempts. USDA raised its U.S. corn yield estimate to an average of 186.5 bushels per acre and boosted production to 17.021 billion bushels, both records. Read Farm Futures’ recap of the biggest market-moving numbers.
Elsewhere, Brazil-based consultant AgRural estimated the country’s first corn crop at 1.6% harvested as of last Thursday, with the second corn crop pegged at 1.1% planted.
Soybeans lifted by export optimism
March soybeans rose 11.75 cents to $10.6450 overnight after touching $10.65, the contract’s highest intraday price since January 12. Futures slipped 4.75 cents Tuesday to $10.53, the contract’s first decline in four days.
Soybeans extended the past week’s upturn in overnight trade, putting March futures on track to close above the 20-day SMA (about $10.58) for the first time since November 28. Prices are up over 26 cents from a 2 ½-month low of $10.3775 posted January 13 and are closing in on the 200-day SMA ($10.6750). Further technical strength could fuel more corrective buying this week, but the longer-term picture is mixed, with futures still down over $1 from mid-November highs.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price fell about 5.5 cents Tuesday to $9.8175. Tuesday’s average was about 71.25 cents below March futures, narrowing from 72.5 cents a week earlier.
March soybean meal rose $3.40 to $295 per ton after jumping $1.60 Tuesday. March soyoil rose 28 points to 52.84 cents per pound, near a four-month high posted last Friday.
Soybean futures are climbing this week behind strengthening charts and renewed optimism over exports following reports China reached an initial White House purchase target that followed a Beijing-Washington trade truce in October. Following a buying spree over the past two months, China has now booked enough cargoes to meet the 12-MMT target.
“The big question now is whether they continue buying or back away in anticipation of Brazilian harvest,” StoneX analyst Matt Zeller said in a note. If China only buys 12 MMT from the U.S. in 2025-26, “it would mark our smallest sales to them in 19 years.”
Soybeans are also gaining some support from concern over crop damage in Argentina, with forecasts calling for hot and dry conditions over the near-term.
Weekly export inspections reported Tuesday showed an uptick in soybean shipments amid further confirmation of China buying.
USDA reported soybean export inspections at 1.337 MMT (49.1 million bushels) during the week ended January 15, down 16% from the previous week but up 35% from the same week a year earlier. China was the top destination at 611,983 MT. Shipments for the marketing year to date now total 710.4 million bushels, down 40% from the same period in 2024-25 and near a 14-year low.
Elsewhere, AgRural estimated Brazil’s soybean harvest at 2% complete as of last Thursday. Late last week, Safras & Mercado estimated the 2025-26 Brazilian soybean harvest at 179.28 MMT (6.59 billion bushels), up from 178.76 MMT in November.
Wheat joins corrective rally
March SRW wheat rose 4 cents to $5.1425 after shedding 7.75 cents Tuesday to $5.1025, the contract’s lowest settlement since January 2.
March HRW wheat rose 4 cents to $5.27. March spring wheat rose 3.5 cents to $5.6550, up from a contract low at $5.6050 last Friday.
Wheat futures joined a corrective rally in corn and soybeans overnight but remain near contract lows posted earlier this week. Exports are showing signs of fading following a strong start to 2025-26, and last week’s bearish USDA reports underscored ample global supplies.
On Tuesday, USDA said wheat export inspections for the week ended January 15 totaled 391,611 MT (14.4 million bushels), up 23% from the previous week and up 50% from the same week a year earlier. Mexico was the top destination at 110,660 MT.
For 2025-26 to date, wheat shipments now total 586.9 million bushels, up 20% from the same period in 2024-25 and about 65% of USDA’s full-year target of 900 million bushels.
In its January 12 Supply and Demand report, USDA hiked estimated worldwide wheat supplies at the end of 2025-26 by 1.2% to 278.3 MMT (10.2 billion bushels), a five-year high. The increase reflects bigger crops in Argentina and Russia.
Stock index futures lower ahead of Trump address
Stock index futures fell slightly overnight as investors nervously waited for President Trump’s address at the World Economic Forum in Davos. U.S. equities tumbled sharply Tuesday after Trump ramped up tariff threats against Europe amid an escalating dispute over Greenland.
Futures based on the S&P 500 index and the Dow industrials were both down about 0.1%, while Nasdaq-100 futures dropped 0.3%. On Tuesday, the underlying S&P 500 fell 2.1%. The U.S. dollar index fell less than 0.1% after sinking to a two-week low Tuesday.
March WTI crude oil futures rose 19 cents to $60.55 per barrel. Gold futures surged another 2% and touched a record above $4,891 per ounce amid ongoing safe-haven buying following Trump’s Greenland threats.
What else I’m reading at www.FarmFutures.com this morning:
- What makes “sub-prime” farmland worth $20,000 an acre? The story isn’t about the soil — it’s about the people and business structures behind the soil, First Mid Ag Services’ Michael Lauher says.