Farmfutures

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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.

What we’re watching

The Trump administration is moving to locate backup sources of fertilizers for U.S. farmers at the start of the planting season after the Iran war shut down a key source. “We’ve been all over the fertilizer problem,” White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said on CNBC Tuesday. Two countries have emerged as alternate sources.

Corn follows crude oil lower

May corn futures fell 2 cents to $4.52 per bushel late in overnight trading after ending unchanged Tuesday following an early drop to a one-week low. December futures fell 1.75 cents to $4.80.

Corn technicals continued to stabilize overnight, with May futures up from Tuesday’s low at $4.4925 and holding above the 10-day simple moving average (SMA), currently about $4.4975. Holding those near-term support levels could encourage buyers, as the market remains in an uptrend drawn from the January lows. Prices are still well off the 10- month high at $4.76 posted March 9. Other downside levels to watch include last week’s low at $4.4550.

Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price was little changed Tuesday at just above $4.1050. Tuesday’s average was almost 43.5 cents below May futures, steady with a week earlier.

Corn futures slipped overnight amid weakness in crude oil prices, which came under pressure after Iraq struck a deal to export its oil through the Kurdistan region to Turkey’s Ceyhan port. That news helped ease concerns over Middle East war disruption to oil shipments. However, oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain largely shut, and Iran continues to target key energy infrastructure in the region. May WTI crude futures fell $1.26 to $94.95 late in overnight trading.

Grain markets may be settling into a holding pattern as traders monitor the Middle East war and look ahead to USDA’s Prospective Plantings report March 31. The report is expected to show a drop in corn acreage intentions this year, and the decline may be magnified because of war-related disruptions to global fertilizer supplies.

Prices are still at risk of further downside if speculators move to further pare back a still-heavy net long position in corn futures. Prices remain down for the week after President Trump said the U.S. asked to delay his planned meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing by “a month or so” due to the ongoing war with Iran. Trump was expected to travel to China at the end of March for the meeting with Xi.

The Energy Information Administration will report weekly U.S. ethanol production later this morning. A week ago, EIA said production averaged 1.126 million barrels per day during the week ended March 6, up 2.8% from the previous week and the highest since a record 1.131 million barrels-per-day average for the week ended December 12.

Grain market focus this month has been consumed by the Iran war, but farmers should also be keeping a close eye on Brazil. Planting of Brazil’s second corn crop, known as the safrinha, is behind as the dry season looms. “The sluggish planting place could directly affect final yields,” Advance Trading’s Brian Basting says. “That’s because Brazil has a unique climate.”

Soybeans extend weakness as China hopes fade

May soybeans fell 7.5 cents to $11.4950 overnight after gaining 1.75 cents Tuesday, up from a three-week low. November soybeans fell 2.25 cents to $11.29 after jumping 10.5 cents Tuesday.

Soybean technicals retain a near-term bearish bias after the early-week selloff broke May futures’ sharp uptrend from January lows. Futures remain under the 10- and 20-day SMAs ($11.9050 and $11.76, respectively) and are down about 7.3% from a 21-month intraday high at $12.3875 last Thursday. Downside levels to watch include the $11.40 area and the late-February low at $11.3650.

Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price gained about 2 cents Tuesday to $10.8175. Tuesday’s average was about 75.25 cents below May futures, widening from 74.5 cents a week earlier.

May soybean meal rose 30 cents to $312.00 per ton after shedding 50 cents Tuesday. May soyoil fell 51 points to 65.46 cents per pound after surging 3.2% Tuesday to 65.97 cents.

Soybean futures resumed a downward path overnight amid spillover pressure from a slide in crude oil prices. The delay in the Trump-Xi meeting continues to hang over the market, forcing traders to scale back hopes for any additional China purchases over the near-term. But prices remain underpinned by expectations for greater biofuels demand.

On Tuesday, prices climbed on reports that Trump invited farmers and biofuel producers to the White House on March 27 for a “Celebration of Agriculture” event, driving expectations the president will announce ramped-up biofuels blending requirements, known as Renewable Volume Obligations.

Last year, the administration proposed significantly boosting the amount of renewable fuel that must be blended into the nation’s fuel supply under the Renewable Fuel Standard, raising the total mandate to about 24.02 billion gallons in 2026 and 24.46 billion gallons in 2027, up from 22.33 billion gallons required in 2025, Reuters reported.

The report triggered a surge in November soybean futures and other deferred contracts as the market started trying to “buy” acres to produce enough feedstock for the anticipated 2027 RVOs, StoneX analyst Arlan Suderman said in a note. Tuesday’s futures strength ended up regaining only a fraction of Monday’s 70-cent, limit-down selloff.

Traders “have taken notice of the absence of talk about soybeans in a potential trade deal with China,” Suderman said. “A trade deal is still likely, but it may focus on other things beyond soybeans. China doesn’t have room for more soybeans at this point, but it does have room for other commodities.”

Elsewhere, Brazilian consultancy AgRural estimated the country’s 2025-26 soybean harvest at 61% complete as of March 12, below the 70% figure from a year earlier. Brazil is still widely expected to reap its third record harvest in the past four years, with USDA estimating the crop at 180 million metric tons (6.61 billion bushels).

Wheat burdened by bearish supply outlook

May SRW wheat fell 2 cents to $5.8775 after dropping another 7.5 cents Tuesday to $5.8975, the contract’s lowest close since March 5. Futures are down 54 cents, or 8.5%, from a 21-month high at $6.4175 posted March 9. Technicals weakened further Tuesday after May SRW futures closed under the 10-day SMA ($5.9750), for the first time in almost two weeks.

May HRW wheat fell 2 cents to $6.0475 after slumping 9.75 cents Tuesday to $6.0675, near a two-week low. May spring wheat rose 1.75 cents to $6.26.

Winter wheat futures remain under pressure as war premium fades and bearish global supply fundamentals keep bullishness over Plains dryness from gaining much traction. Additionally, the recent rally in the U.S. dollar is raising concerns over already-sagging export demand. Early this week, the U.S. dollar index touched a 10-month high.

Weekly state-level crop ratings reported early this week indicated dry conditions are taking a toll.

In Kansas, 52% of the winter wheat crop was rated “good” or “excellent” at the start of this week, down from 56% a week earlier, according to the state’s Department of Agriculture. Topsoil moisture across Kansas was rated 48% “short” or “very short,” up from 38% a week earlier, and 47% “adequate.”

Elsewhere, the European Commission said European Union soft wheat exports for the 2025-26 marketing year reached 615.88 million bushels through March 15, up 7.9% from the same period in 2024-25.

Mostly dry the rest of the week in Midwest

The Midwest and Plains will be mostly dry the rest of the week, with only light rains expected for Indiana, Ohio and Wisconsin today through Saturday, based on the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA.

The latest 6-to-14-day and 8-to-14-day outlooks from the National Weather Service continue a warmer, drier pattern from the Southwest through the central U.S. the rest of the month. The 8-to-14-day outlook, which covers March 25-31, calls for above-normal temperatures and normal to below-normal precipitation for most of the Plains and Midwest.

Stock index futures firmer ahead of Fed decision

Stock index futures climbed overnight as oil prices eased and investors awaited a decision from the Federal Reserve’s policy-setting committee later today. Fed leaders are widely expected to hold the central bank’s benchmark interest rate unchanged at a target range of 3.5% to 3.75%.

Futures based on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 indexes rose 0.5% and 0.6%, respectively, while Dow futures gained 0.2%. The U.S. dollar index fell slightly as the benchmark extended a pullback from a 10-month high posted Monday.