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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.

What we’re watching

Live cattle futures jumped to a record high around $2.27 per pound Wednesday as the market extended a rally that shows few signs of slowing. The cattle market looks like a “freight train that nobody can stop,” CommStock Investments’ Eric Relph said in the latest Ag Marketing IQ In Depth video interview. But he cautioned that such rallies inevitably reverse.

Corn export sales in focus

December corn futures rose 1.25 cents to $4.1875 per bushel late in overnight trading after dropping 0.5 cent Wednesday to $4.1750, the contract’s third consecutive daily decline and its lowest settlement since July 11. September futures rose 2.75 cents to $4.0174 after sinking 0.75 cent Wednesday to $3.9850, the second-straight sub-$4 close.

Wednesday’s poor chart performance illustrated how “massive” trade deals are no match for massive crops. The market’s overnight rebound lifted prices slightly above the mid-point of the past three weeks’ trading range, marked by a December contract low of $4.0750 on July 14 and last week’s high at $4.3025.

Near-term resistance includes the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4.2150, while near-term support begins at Wednesday's intraday low at $4.1575.

Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price fell about 1 cent Wednesday to $3.8475.

Corn and soybean futures erased an overnight rally Wednesday that followed President Trump’s announcement of a “massive” trade deal with Japan. Reports of trade deals with Indonesia and the Philippines contributed to initial strength. But price gains faded as trade focus shifted back to bearishly-perceived Midwest weather and growing beliefs U.S. farmers will harvest a record crop.

Wednesday’s gains “gave way to reality” as details of the deals “showed no new net-demand was created within those nations for the grains that would interest the futures market,” StoneX analyst Bevan Everett said in a report.

Trade barriers were lowered for U.S. imports, Everett said, “but the barriers were not holding back total import demand, just restricting the number of players involved in the economic “pie.” Essentially, the impact on the grain sector was the “rearrangement of the furniture in the room,” Everett said. “With that realization, the market returned to trading U.S. weather and Brazilian exportable supplies.”

Weather forecasts continued to hold strong odds for widespread rainfall coverage across the Midwest into early next week, followed by cooler temperatures in early August. Rain totals for southern Iowa and northern Illinois could range from 1.25 inches to 2 inches by Sunday, based on the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA.

USDA will report U.S. export sales numbers for the week ended July 17 early today. Corn exports ran at a robust pace much of the 2024-25 marketing year but have faded sharply this month.

Analysts expect old-crop sales to range between 100,000 metric tons and 800,000 MT (3.94 million to 31.5 million bushels), while new-crop sales are expected at 400,000 MT to 800,000 MT. A week ago, USDA reported old-crop sales of 97,600 MT, down 89% from the four-week average and a marketing year low.

China “notably absent” from U.S. soybean market

November soybeans rose 3.25 cents to $10.26 late overnight after sinking 2.75 cents Wednesday to $10.2275, the contract’s third straight decline and a one-week low. Futures failed to hold initial gains that sent November futures as high as $10.3550.

Overnight trade saw November futures extend a consolidation phase after last week’s rally, with a potential “bull flag” forming on the daily bar chart drawn from the July low at $9.9825. A breakout above the $10.30 area (which coincides with the 200-day SMA) could have bulls targeting the July high at $10.4325. Initial support includes this week’s low at $10.2025.

Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price fell about 4.5 cents Wednesday to $9.6925, a one-week low.

August soymeal rose 60 cents to $272.70 per ton after shedding 0.7% Wednesday, as the market pulled back from an early climb near three-week highs. August soyoil rose 23 points to 56.37 cents per pound after gaining nearly 1% Wednesday.

Soybeans retain longer-term underlying support from hopes recent trade deals may boost demand for U.S. agricultural goods, as well as sharply higher biofuels mandates in the recently passed budget bill. But with few threats seen in August weather outlooks so far, the soybean market continues to struggle sustaining rallies. Trade is growing increasingly confident the soybean crop will also post a record nationwide yield at or above USDA’s current target of 52.5 bushels per acre.

An absence of Chinese interest in new-crop soybean supplies is also weighing on prices. Net weekly soybean export sales are expected to range 100,000 MT and 350,000 MT (3.67 million to 12.9 million bushels) for the old-crop year, while new-crop sales are pegged at 250,000 MT to 500,000 MT.

A week ago, USDA reported old-crop sales of 271,900 MT, down 46% from the previous week and down 39% from the four-week average. New-crop sales were stronger at 529,600 MT, with Mexico the top buyer at 326,600 MT.

“Global end-users continue to take advantage of cheap U.S. corn supplies at a record clip, but the trade needs to see increased interest from China” for 2025-26 U.S. soybeans,” StoneX Chief Commodities Economist Arlan Suderman said.

So far, the Chinese are “mostly and notably absent, with no new daily ‘flash’ sales in the past week and very few beans on the books, as they gobble up Brazilian supplies and attempt to avoid U.S. purchases at all costs amid the ongoing trade war.”

Wheat export sales may slip

September SRW wheat futures rose 0.75 cent to $5.4125 late overnight after tumbling 9 cents Wednesday to $5.4050, the contract’s lowest close since July 17.

Wheat technicals remain neutral-bearish and are poised to extend the sideways trend of the past two weeks, though a push above Tuesday’s intraday high at $5.5275 in September SRW futures could spark short-covering rally. The July 11 high at $5.5750 looms as another upside target. Initial support includes this week’s low at $5.3675.

September HRW futures rose 1.25 cents to $5.2475 after the contract dropped 9.75 cents Wednesday and ended near a one-week low. September spring wheat rose 2 cents to $5.90.

Ample U.S. and global supplies continue to weigh on wheat futures, even with Russia scaling back its harvest outlook earlier this week and U.S. new-crop export sales off to a strong start.

USDA’s weekly export sales report is expected to include net U.S. wheat sales at 250,000 MT to 500,000 MT (9.2 million to 18.4 million bushels). Sales during the week ended July 10 totaled 529,600 MT, led by Mexico’s purchases of 326,600 MT.

Elsewhere, LSEG Research and Insights raised its estimate for Argentina’s 2025-26 wheat production to 742.2 million bushels, citing improved soil moisture conditions. Planting progress has reached 92%, according to Argentina’s agriculture ministry.

Cool-down coming in August for Midwest

Generous rains are expected across much of the Midwest today through Sunday, with totals for southern Iowa and the northern halves of Illinois and Missouri potentially ranging from 1.25 inches to 2 inches by Sunday, based on the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Eastern Kansas could receive over 3 inches.

Early August looks to bring some relief from the heat. Below-normal temperatures are expected to move into the northern Corn Belt and expand throughout most of the region, based on the National Weather Service’s 6-to-10-day and 8-to-14-day outlooks, which cover July 29-August 6. Both outlooks hold near to above-normal precipitation prospects.

Stock index futures mixed as earnings loom

Stock index futures were mixed overnight as investors awaited another batch of quarterly earnings reports from major companies.

Futures based on the S&P 500 index were little changed, while Nasdaq-100 futures rose 0.3% and Dow futures fell 0.4%. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.2% after earlier dropping to its lowest level in over two weeks.

September WTI crude oil futures rose 63 cents to $65.88 per barrel, while gold futures fell 0.8% to about $3,370 per ounce.

What else I’m reading at www.FarmFutures.com this morning: