Farmfutures

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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.

What we’re watching

“I stay in my lane,” Tennessee farmer Terry Rainwaters said—unless someone veers into his children’s. That mindset led to Rainwaters prevailing in a case against Tennessee wildlife authorities. At issue was whether officers could install game cameras facing Rainwaters’ land and then bypass a locked gate to enter the property because they suspected violations of wildlife laws. Rainwaters said he didn’t sue for money. He sued to be left alone.

Corn higher as crude rallies overnight

May corn futures rose 5.75 cents to $4.58 per bushel late in overnight trading after slipping 1.5 cents Tuesday to $4.5225, down almost 20 cents from a 10-month high at $4.76 posted at the start of the week. December futures rose 6 cents to $4.8575.

Corn technicals firmed with Tuesday’s rebound from initial lows, which lifted May futures back above the 10-day simple moving average, currently $4.5025, and kept prices above the 100- and 200-day SMAs ($4.4650 and $4.4750). Futures remain in a strong uptrend from mid-January lows but will face an uphill climb to return near the early-week highs. Near-term resistance comes in around $4.60 and last week’s high at $4.62.

Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price fell over 1.25 cents Tuesday to $4.0875. Tuesday’s average was about 43.5 cents below May futures, widening from 40.75 cents a week earlier.

Corn futures joined a grain market upswing overnight as signs of worsening conflict in the Middle East sent crude oil prices higher. April WTI crude futures surged over 3.5% to $86.50 per barrel after the UK Navy said three vessels were attacked today in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf.

Also, U.S. Central Command said late Tuesday American forces destroyed 16 Iranian mine-laying ships near the Strait of Hormuz. The International Energy Agency is said to be considering the largest emergency oil reserve release in its history.

Grain prices likely will continue to closely track the oil market as traders mark time ahead of USDA’s March 31 Prospective Plantings report. Oil’s pullback early this week spurred heavy speculator selling in corn. Funds sold an estimated 61,000 corn futures contracts the first two days this week after buying a net of 3,000 contracts last week.

Prices had little reaction to Tuesday’s USDA Supply and Demand report, which carried few major surprises or changes to U.S. or global balance sheets.

USDA raised its estimate for Brazil’s corn crop by 1 million metric tons to 132 MMT (5.197 billion bushels) but also lowered its Argentina forecast 1 MMT to 52 MMT. Ukraine’s crop was hiked almost 6% to 30.7 MMT. Estimated global ending corn stocks for 2025-25 increased 1.3% to 292.75 MMT, a reflection of downgraded demand, though supplies would still be down 1% from 2024-25 and the lowest since 2014-15.

Among key U.S. figures, USDA left 2025-26 estimated corn exports unchanged at a record 3.3 billion bushels. Ending stocks were held at 2.127 billion bushels, a seven-year high.

Trade focus now zeroes in on USDA’s March 31 Prospective Plantings and quarterly Grain Stocks reports, which will be one key to spring price direction. At its annual Outlook Forum in February, USDA forecast 2026 U.S. corn plantings at 94 million acres, down almost 5% from a nine-decade high in 2025.

But the March 31 report will be the first of the season that incorporates farmer survey data, and acreage numbers could shift in light of recent grain market moves as well as outside factors, such as the Iran war and its impact on energy and fertilizer supplies.

In Tuesday’s report, lower Argentinian production “was the most positive news reported, but it was offset completely by higher Brazilian production,” John C. Zanker of Farmers Keeper Financial said in a report. Now, “all eyes are on the USDA's more consequential report, Prospective Plantings, which will give us our first ‘official’ estimate on 2026-27 crop acreage.”

The Energy Information Administration is scheduled to report weekly ethanol production and exports later this morning. A week ago, EIA reported production averaged 1.085 million barrels per day during the week ended February 27, down 1.6% from the prior week and a four-week low.

The U.S. and Israel’s attacks on Iran have disrupted fertilizer supplies, and farmers worldwide are rushing to secure critical nutrients ahead of the spring growing season. “We grabbed what we needed,” South Dakota farmer Chet Edinger told Bloomberg, referring to urea, which he said cost 22% more than it did in late 2025. It was “the highest price I ever had to pay.”

Soyoil leads soybeans higher

May soybeans surged 15 cents to $12.1675 overnight after adding 5.5 cents Tuesday to $12.0175, the highest close for a most-active contract since May 2024. Futures are still down from a 21-month intraday high at $12.3375 posted at the start of the week. November soybeans rose 8.75 cents to $11.6225.

Soybeans technicals strengthened as Tuesday’s rebound extended overnight, keeping prices in a steep uptrend from mid-January lows. May futures appear to have solidified this week’s move above $12, with bulls likely aiming for the $12.20 area and eventually a test of Monday’s highs. Downside levels to watch include the 10-day SMA ($11.8325). Upside levels to watch include the May 2024 highs around $12.58, based on continuation charts.

Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price rose over 5.5 cents Tuesday to almost $11.2725. Tuesday’s average was about 74.75 cents below May futures, widening from 73 cents a week earlier.

May soybean meal fell 90 cents to $313.60 per ton after gaining $1 Tuesday. May soyoil soared 221 points to 67.83 cents per pound after dropping 48 points Tuesday. Futures are down from Monday’s high of 69.91 cents, the highest intraday price for a most-active contract since November 2022.

Soyoil futures led soybeans higher overnight as crude oil again spiked up amid concern over disruptions from the Middle East conflict. Demand optimism continues to buoy soybeans and soyoil ahead of an expected meeting between Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese counterparts this weekend in Paris, which precedes a meeting between President Trump and Xi Jinping around April 1.

But price upside may be stanched by heavy supplies from Brazil, which is in the middle of what’s expected to be a record harvest. U.S. farmers would be wise to unload whatever they have left from last fall’s harvest in case prices take a turn lower, Zanker said.

“I'm trying to stay a little friendly in here given the ongoing war threat, in addition to the potential for a successful U.S./China summit early next month,” Zanker said in a report. “That being said, the downside potential is substantial and warrants getting the old-crop selling wrapped up before the calendar strikes March 31. Acreage will be increasing, with the only question being, by how much?”

Tuesday’s USDA report was viewed as largely a non-event for the soybean market. USDA lowered its soybean harvest estimates for Argentina by 1%, to 48 MMT (1.76 billion bushels) following a dry February, but kept Brazil unchanged at a record 180 MMT (6.61 billion bushels).

Among U.S. numbers, USDA bumped up 2025-26 estimated soybean crushing by 5 million bushels to 2.575 billion bushels, up 5.3% from 2024-25 and a record for the fifth year in a row. Exports were kept at 1.575 billion bushels, a 13-year low, while ending stocks held steady at 350 million bushels, a six-year high. Soyoil use by the biofuels industry was cut 5.4% to 14 billion pounds.

Wheat supported by Plains dryness

March SRW wheat rose 9 cents to $6.00 after tumbling 12.25 cents Tuesday to $5.91, the contract’s second straight daily decline after an initial rally early this week to $6.4175, the highest intraday price for a most-active contract since June 2024. Futures are still up about 68 cents, or almost 13%, from February lows around $5.32.

March HRW wheat rose 10.25 cents to $6.19 after shedding 11 cents Tuesday to $6.0875. March spring wheat rose 1.25 cents to $6.3625, down from Monday’s 21-month intraday high at $6.6925.

Wheat futures rebounded with corn and soybeans overnight as grain markets continued to tag along with crude oil’s rally. A dry outlook the rest of the month for the Southern Plains, much of which remains in drought, is also lending support.

State-level USDA crop ratings continued to paint a mixed picture for winter wheat, keeping drought in parts of the Southern Plains a background concern. Improvement in Oklahoma suggested some benefit from last week’s rains.

In Kansas, 56% of the winter wheat crop was rated “good” or “excellent” at the start of this week, down from 58% a week earlier, according to the state’s Department of Agriculture. Topsoil moisture across Kansas was rated 38% “short” or “very short.” Oklahoma’s good-to-excellent rating rose to 24% from 19%, while Texas held unchanged at 16%.

Fundamentals otherwise remain mostly bearish amid ample global wheat supplies and eroding U.S. wheat exports.

Tuesday’s USDA data underlined the bearish fundamentals that have limited wheat rallies. Estimated 2025-26 U.S. wheat ending stocks remained at 931 million bushels, up almost 9% from 2024-25 and a six-year high. Exports held at 900 million bushels, a five-year high. USDA boosted its average farm price by 5 cents to $4.95 per bushel.

Global ending stocks were trimmed 0.2% to 276.96 MMT (10.18 billion bushels). But USDA slightly lifted 2025-26 production to 842.12 MMT, up 5.2% from 2024-25 and a record for the sixth year in a row.

Dry Plains, Midwest outlook for second half of March

The western Corn Belt and Central and Southern Plains look mostly dry the rest of this week while light rains could continue for the eastern Belt, based on the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Indiana and Ohio may receive 0.25 inch to 1.25 inches today through Saturday.

The National Weather Service’s 6-to-14-day outlook, which covers March 16-20, continues to predict below-normal temperatures from the Midwest into the Southeast while expanding below-normal precipitation prospects from the Plains into the central Corn Belt. Little moisture relief is seen in the 8-to-14-day outlook for the Plains and western Corn Belt, with below-normal precipitation expected March 18-24.

Stock index futures up ahead of CPI report

Stock index futures climbed overnight as investors continued to watch the Middle East conflict and waited for the February Consumer Price Index report this morning for a read on inflation.

Futures based on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 indexes both rose over 0.1%, while Dow futures were up about 0.1%. The U.S. dollar index rose over 0.1% in a rebound from Tuesday’s one-week low.

April WTI crude futures surged over 3.5% to $86.50 per barrel late in overnight trading but are down sharply from a four-year high above $119 posted Monday. Gold futures fell almost 1% to about $5,192 per ounce.

What else I’m reading at www.FarmFutures.com this morning: