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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.
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Corn at $5 and beans at $12 would be nice, but it’s still possible to squeeze out profits even in a soft price environment. The idea is to use “dynamic break-evens” through the marketing year, factoring in harvest results and profits from earlier sales, to refine your selling strategy, AgMarket.Net partner Tyler Schau says in an Ag Marketing IQ In Depth video.
Corn rebounds from three-week lows
March corn futures fell 0.5 cent to $4.44 late in overnight trading after rising 4 cents Thursday to $4.4450, the contract’s second straight daily gain and its highest close since December 11. Futures are up from $4.4075 at the end of last week and poised to break a two-week slide.
Futures pulled back slightly overnight but the bounce-back from three-week lows posted Tuesday illustrates strong buying interest on any price dips and firm support around the $4.35 area. Thursday’s gains lifted March futures to a close back above the 10- and 20-day simple moving averages (SMAs), at $4.4275 to $4.43, respectively, and above the 50-day SMA ($4.42). Near-term resistance includes the 200-day SMA ($4.4625) and the $4.50 area.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price rose about 4 cents Thursday to $3.9975. Thursday’s cash average was about 44.75 cents below March futures, narrowing slightly from 45 cents a week earlier.
Corn futures found support this week behind ongoing bullish demand dynamics that could keep the market range-bound through the holidays, even as soybean and wheat prices remain under pressure. Speculators have also been active buyers. Funds bought an estimated 31,000 corn futures contracts the past two days, according to StoneX.
Early Thursday, USDA reported net U.S. corn sales for the week ended November 27 totaled 1.792 MMT (70.6 million bushels), down 2.6% from the previous week but at the high end of trade expectations. Mexico and Japan led buyers. Commitments to date (including accumulated exports) totaled 1.746 billion bushels, up 30% from the same period in 2024-25.
U.S. farmers’ bottom lines took a beating in 2025 from high input costs and below-breakeven crop prices, and 2026 isn’t shaping up to be much kinder. Prairie Farmer’s Ava Splear details seven keys for tackling another year of tight margins: Preserving cash reserves and walking away from high-cost land, for example.
Soybeans under heavy fund-driven pressure
January soybeans fell 2.25 cents to $10.50 overnight after earlier dropping to $10.48, the contract’s lowest intraday price since $10.4450 on October 22. Futures are down from $10.7675 at the end of last week and tracking for a third straight weekly loss. March futures rose 0.25 cent to $10.6225.
Soybeans extended a month-long slide overnight as the market continues to probe for an elusive price bottom. Technicals eroded further Thursday after January futures closed under the 200-day SMA ($10.5475) for the first time since October 17, then breached $10.50 overnight. With momentum on their side, bears may be targeting the $10.40 area.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price dropped nearly 6 cents Thursday to $9.8125, near a seven-week low. Thursday’s average was about 71 cents below January futures, steady with levels a week ago.
Soybeans remain under heavy fund-driven pressure as the recent chart breakdown overrules price-supportive news from more USDA-confirmed China purchases. Weakness also reflects skepticism China will reach the White House’s 12-MMT near-term purchase target by the end of February and mostly favorable weather in Brazil that’s bolstered prospects for another record crop.
Funds have sold an estimated 31,500 soybean futures contracts since December 11, according to StoneX.
The center-west of Brazil saw scattered showers around mid-week, with the heaviest totals at 3 inches to 4 inches seen in some areas. However, the country’s northeast largely missed out, as did far southern Brazil and most of Argentina. Forecasts show the major growing areas of both countries catching beneficial rains over the next two weeks, though some portions of Brazil look fairly dry until the tail-end of that window, according to StoneX.
China continues to make progress toward meeting a near-term soybean purchase target agreed to with the Trump Administration, securing at least 7 MMT following heavy buying the past two weeks, Bloomberg reported.
Early Thursday, USDA reported private exporter soybean sales totaling 114,000 MT (7.3 million bushels) for delivery to China during 2025-26. USDA also reported sales totaling 125,000 MT to unknown destinations for 2025-26 delivery. Wednesday’s announcement brought recent USDA-confirmed China soybean purchases to at least 3.81 MMT (140.1 million bushels). That’s about 32% of the 12 MMT the White House recently said China would purchase by the end of February.
However, USDA’s latest weekly export sales update was a disappointment, with Chinese purchases dropping sharply. Net U.S. soybean sales for the week ended November 27 totaled 1.106 MMT (42.6 million bushels), less than half the previous week’s figure and at the lower end of expectations. The week’s total included 509,000 MT of sales to China, down from 2.142 MMT the week prior.
Overall U.S. soybean export commitments for 2025-26 to date (including accumulated exports) now total 802 million bushels, down 39% from the same period last year and a 17-year low. Accumulated exports to China remain at zero, compared to 468 million bushels a year earlier.
“Soybean prices continue to struggle following their recent chart-related price breakdown,” StoneX analyst Arlan Suderman said in a note Thursday. “It’s hard for investors to justify a sustained rally to new highs when Brazil is on the cusp of a big harvest, and the EPA continues to delay announcement of the final regulations for the U.S. biofuel program.”
Wheat stabilizes after drop to contract lows
March SRW wheat was unchanged at $5.0775 after adding 1.5 cents Thursday to $5.0775, the market’s first gain in five days and a modest rebound from Thursday’s drop to a contract low at $5.04. Futures are still down from $5.2925 at the end of last week and heading for a seventh consecutive weekly decline.
Wheat technicals continue to sag in the wake of this week’s chart collapse, with March SRW futures down about 60 cents, or almost 11%, from an early-November high at $5.68. This week’s sell-off sent the market back near the psychologically important $5 level and the six-year lows around $4.92 reached in mid-October.
March HRW futures rose 0.25 cent to $5.1725 after rallying 9.25 cents Thursday to $5.17, a second straight daily gain. March spring wheat rose 0.75 cent to $5.7375 after jumping 10.25 cents Thursday in a sharp bounce from a $5.61 contract low.
Wheat futures appeared to stabilize Thursday in a modest rebound from the contract lows reached earlier this week, perhaps reflecting ideas cheaper prices and weakness in the dollar may spur renewed export business.
However, a record global production outlook for 2026 likely will limit rally attempts. The prospect of disruption from the Russia-Ukraine war remains a background concern in the wake of reports the Ukrainian farmers’ union said wheat exports have been curtailed by Russian attacks on ports in the Black Sea.
SovEcon raised its estimate of Russia’s 2025 wheat crop to 88.8 MMT, which would rank as the third largest on record.
U.S. wheat exports have eroded in recent weeks but remain above last year’s levels.
USDA reported net U.S. wheat sales for the week ended November 27 at 460,700 MT (16.9 million bushels), up 27% from a five-week low the prior week and around the middle of trade expectations. U.S. wheat sales commitments (including accumulated exports) for 2025-26 to date total 695.9 million bushels, up 23% from the same period in 2024-25 and a nine-year high.