Farmfutures

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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.

What we’re watching

USDA’s Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports March 31 come at a particularly sensitive time for markets still rattled by the Middle East war. With the historically most volatile period of the year ahead for grains, it’s a good idea to get ahead of the “spring rush,” Advance Trading’s Brett Mapel says. Consider a few steps now so if the rally resumes, you’re positioned to act.

Corn lifted by renewed crude oil strength

May corn futures rose 3 cents to $4.6250 per bushel late in overnight trading after trading in an unusually wide 17.25-cent range Monday and ending with a loss of 6 cents. Futures earlier reached a two-week high at $4.7350. December futures rose 1.75 cents to $4.8825 after dropping 3.75.

Corn traded in a relatively tight range overnight as May futures remained in the upper half of this month’s range, with a 10-month high at $4.76 marking the high end. Near-term technicals appear neutral as the market remains in an uptrend from January lows but May futures are showing some signs of erosion with Monday’s close below the 10-day simple moving average, currently $4.6076. A push under the 20-day SMA ($4.5525) could fuel further weakness.

Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price fell almost 6 cents Monday to $4.1675. Monday’s average was about 42.75 cents below May futures, narrowing from 43.5 cents a week earlier.

Corn futures generated a modest rebound overnight with help from renewed upside in crude oil, which rose back above $90 following reports Iran ‌denied it had talks with the U.S. to end the war in the Gulf, contradicting President Trump’s statement Monday that a deal could be reached soon.

May WTI crude climbed nearly $2.50, or over 2.8%, to $90.57 per barrel late in overnight trading. Two weeks ago, crude futures neared $120 shortly after the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran.

Grain traders will continue to monitor the war with Iran while waiting for USDA’s March 31 Prospective Plantings report. Speculators retain a heavy bullish position in corn futures, with the managed money net long as of March 16 surpassing 230,000 contracts (over 1.15 billion bushels), the largest since February 2025, based on CFTC data. The market could therefore be vulnerable to sharp, profit-taking-driven losses.

“That's way too big of a long position given the non-war fundamentals, which makes topsy-turvy action like yesterday much easier to unfold,” John Zanker, senior analyst at Farmer’s Keeper Financial, said in report today. “I've been trying very hard to be at least moderately bullish corn,” he added, citing strong exports and declining acreage. However, “there are going to be some nervous days between now and the ultra-important reports on the last day of the month.”

The plantings report is widely expected to show a pullback in corn acres from a nine-decade high at 98.79 million acres in 2025, and any decline could be magnified because of war-related disruptions to global fertilizer supplies.

On Monday, advisor AgMarket.Net said it forecast a 4.5% drop in corn plantings, to 94.4 million acres, and a 6% jump in soybean plantings, to 86.1 million acres, citing stronger prices for the latter crop.

Soybean prices “are at levels we haven't had a chance to hedge at in a long time,” AgMarket.Net co-founder and CEO Matt Bennett said in a statement. “The combination of stronger soybean prices, the natural corn-to-soybean rotation and what it costs to put corn out this year - all of those things point to a larger shift in soybean acres.”

Another advisor, Allendale, last week estimated U.S. corn plantings at 93.68 million acres, which would be down 5.2% from 2025. The firm cites rising input costs and a corn-to-soybean ratio that appears to favor the former crop. In February, USDA forecast corn plantings at 94 million acres.

USDA’s weekly inspections report today underscored a robust corn export pace. Corn inspected for export during the week ended March 19 totaled 1.7 million metric tons (66.9 million bushels), up 1.7% from the previous week and up 9.8% from the same week a year earlier, USDA said. Mexico was the top destination at 483,835 metric tons.

For 2025-26 to date, corn shipments now total 1.755 billion bushels, up 38% from the same period in 2024-25 and 53% of USDA’s full-year export projection for a record 3.3 billion bushels. Year-to-date corn export inspections exceed the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 306 million bushels, down from 315 million the previous week, according to a StoneX estimate.

Also Monday, USDA reported private exporter corn sales totaling 102,000 MT to Mexico for delivery during the 2025-26 marketing year. USDA also reported private exporter soybean sales of 161,120 MT to Mexico, also for 2025-26 delivery.

Elsewhere, StoneX Brazil reported the country’s 2025-26 soybean harvest at 67.5% this week, up from 60% last week but still behind 75% last year. Harvest of the first corn crop rose to 53% complete from 45% to 53%, above 49% a year ago, while planting of the second corn crop was 94% finished, down slightly from the year-earlier pace.

Soybeans burdened by bearish supplies

May soybeans fell 4.25 cents to $11.5925 overnight after climbing 2.25 cents Monday to $11.6350, around the middle of the market’s range since the March 16 selloff. Futures remain down sharply from a 21-month high near $12.39 posted March 12. November soybeans fell 2.75 cents to $11.4375.

Soybeans retain a neutral-bearish near-term posture with May futures extending sideways consolidation following the selloff a little over a week ago. May futures continue to trade under the 10- and 20-day SMAs ($11.79 and $11.7850, respectively). Downside levels to watch include last week’s low at $11.4525 and the $11.40 area.

Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price rose about 2.5 cents Monday to just under $10.8925. Monday’s average was about 74.25 cents below May futures, narrowing from 75 cents a week earlier.

Soybean traders disregarded the rally in crude oil and sent prices lower overnight as bearish supply fundamentals, including a likely-record Brazil harvest, hanging over the market. Strong crush demand continues to underpin prices but speculators hold large bullish bets in both soybeans and soyoil, which could lead to another round of profit-taking.

As of March 16, the managed money in soybean futures totaled slightly over 195,000 contracts, or about 976 million bushels. The soyoil net long was nearly 120,000 contracts, the biggest since 2016, based on CFTC figures.

The market retains support from expectations for greater biofuels demand. Futures rallied briefly last week following reports that Trump invited farmers and biofuel producers to the White House for a “Celebration of Agriculture” event Friday, boosting hopes the president will announce ramped-up biofuels blending requirements, known as Renewable Volume Obligations.

“We should see the EPA’s final RVO requirements for 2026 & 2027 biofuel by Friday’s Celebration of Ag event at the White House,” StoneX analyst Arlan Suderman wrote. “Probably one of the bigger risks would be if the RVO were trimmed for this year, since a quarter of the year is already past (and) due to energy inflation worries ahead of the midterm elections. That’s not a prediction, but a statement of risk.

The prospect for a large increase in soybean plantings this year, and a subsequent surge in supplies, could limit price upside in new-crop futures. Allendale forecast soybean plantings at 85.66 million acres, up 4.44 million acres, or 5.5%, from a six-year low in 2025. In February, USDA came out at 85 million acres.

USDA’s weekly inspections report showed some improvement in soybean shipments. Soybean inspections for the week ended March 19 totaled 1.102 MMT (40.5 million bushels), up 12% from the previous week and up 32% from the same week a year earlier. China was the top destination at 664,967 MT.

However, shipments remained sharply off last year’s levels after China avoided buying U.S. beans for about six months in 2025 amid a protracted trade dispute with the U.S. For 2025-26 to date, shipments totaled 1.072 billion bushels, down 27% from the same period in 2024-25 and a seven-year low. Year-to-date inspections are running short of the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA’s target by about 116 million bushels.

Elsewhere, StoneX Brazil reported the country’s 2025-26 soybean harvest at 67.5% this week, up from 60% last week but still behind 75% last year.

Wheat supported by eroding crop ratings

May SRW wheat rose 1.75 cents to $5.8950 and remains down sharply from a nine-month intraday high of $6.4175 posted March 9.

May HRW wheat rose 2 cents to $6.0525. May spring wheat rose 3 cents to $6.30.

Winter wheat futures came under pressure in recent days amid easing concern that dry conditions in the Plains could trim yields. The latest 6-to-10 and 8-to-14-day outlooks from the National Weather Service show greater precipitation changes for the Plains and Midwest starting later this month.

However, continued slippage in state-level USDA crop ratings further fueled worries over drought.

In Kansas, 46% of the winter wheat crop was rated “good” or “excellent” at the start of this week, down from 52% a week earlier and 56% two weeks earlier, according to the state’s Department of Agriculture. Topsoil moisture across Kansas was rated 60% “short” or “very short,” up from 48% a week earlier, and 43% “adequate.”

USDA’s March 31 report is also expected to show a decline in wheat acres, reflecting the market’s protracted price slump that’s squeezed growers.

AgMarket.Net forecast 2026 plantings of all U.S. wheat varieties at 44.7 million acres, down from 45.3 million acres in 2025 and the lowest since 2020. The firm cited “weak profit margins” for wheat producers, noting that winter wheat acres are largely “locked in,” while spring wheat acres are expected to decline.

S&P projected total U.S. wheat plantings for 2026 at 44.05 million acres, 40,000 acres above its January projection but down by about 1.3 million acres from 2025. The firm estimated winter wheat plantings at 32.4 million acres, unchanged from January but down from 33.15 million a year earlier.

Allendale said U.S. producers may plant 44.88 million acres to all varieties of wheat this season, which would mark a decline of 423,000 acres from last year. Of that total, spring wheat plantings were estimated at 9.68 million acres. In February, USDA pegged all U.S. wheat plantings at 45 million acres, down 300,000 acres from last year and the lowest since 2020.

USDA’s weekly export inspections indicated some improvement in wheat shipments but exports remain sluggish as the 2025-26 crop year winds down.

Wheat export inspections for the week ended March 19 totaled 458,411 MT (16.8 million bushels), up 33% from the previous week but down 5.5% from a year earlier. Mexico was the top destination at 128,882 MT. For 2025-26 to date, wheat shipments now total 732.2 million bushels, up 18% from the same period in 2024-25 and 81% of USDA’s full-year target of 900 million bushels.

Rainfall possible for eastern Corn Belt

Some precipitation may develop in the eastern Corn Belt later this week, with 0.5 inch to 1.5 inches of rain possible for much of Indiana and Ohio today through Friday, based on NOAA’s 72-hour outlook. The western Corn Belt and the Plains should be mostly dry.

The latest National Weather Service 6-to-10-day and 8-to-14 day outooks, which cover March 29-April 6, extend the call for above-normal temperatures across the central U.S. through early April. Both outlooks have also turned wetter, with above-normal precipitation expected for the Midwest and Plains during that period.

Stock index futures weaker as oil resumes climb

Stock index futures pulled back slightly overnight after hopes for a resolution to the Iran war fueled gains Monday, but a renewed upswing in oil prices showed traders remained jittery.

Futures based on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 indexes both fell around 0.1% while Dow futures eased about 0.2%. The U.S. dollar index strengthened over 0.3% but was still down from a 10-month high posted a week ago.