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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.
What we’re watching
Monday’s USDA data onslaught promises to set the tone for grain prices in early 2026, and trying to outguess the market or the numbers is fraught with risk. “This is the big one,” says Total Farm Marketing’s Naomi Blohm. Get ready for “lots of surprises, twists and turns.” How can farmers prepare for what could be a harrowing ride? Blohm and other advisors detailed five possible paths.
Corn ending stocks may be lowered
March corn futures fell 0.25 cent to $4.4575 per bushel late overnight after easing 0.75 cent Thursday to $4.46, down from Wednesday’s near-two-week high. Futures are still up from a two-week low of $4.3625 hit early Monday and up from $4.3750 at the end of last week.
Futures extended a sideways grind overnight as traders bided time ahead of Monday’s USDA reports, though technicals retained a firm tone. March futures briefly dipped under the 200-day simple moving average, currently $4.45, before bouncing back, and the market is poised for a third consecutive close above the key long-term indicator. Futures continue to face stiff resistance at the $4.50 area. Near-term support comes in at the 50- and 10-day SMAs ($4.4450 and $4.4375, respectively).
Speculators continued a buying streak this week amid strengthening near-term technicals. Funds bought about 44,000 corn futures contracts over the past four days after selling 48,000 contracts the previous five days, based on StoneX estimates.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price fell slightly over 0.25 cent Thursday to $4.0750. Thursday’s average was about 38.5 cents below March futures, narrowing from 44 cents at the end of 2025.
The market’s holding pattern continued overnight with many traders sidelined ahead of Monday’s USDA reports, which will include final numbers on 2025 corn and soybean harvests and could key the next significant price moves in both markets. The reports include USDA’s monthly Supply and Demand and quarterly Grain Stocks updates, along with its Crop Production Annual Summary, which typically features “final” 2025 estimates for U.S. corn and soybean production and yields.
This week’s gains suggest traders are positioning for potentially bullish numbers, including expected reductions for U.S. corn. The following are trade expectations for several closely followed USDA figures, based on a Reuters survey of analysts:
- U.S. corn production: 16.552 billion bushels (vs. USDA’s November estimate of 16.752 billion bu.)
- U.S. corn average yield: 184.0 bushels per acre (vs 186.0 bpa in November)
- U.S. December 1 corn stocks: 12.962 billion bu. (vs 12.075 billion bu. a year earlier)
- U.S. corn ending stocks, 2025-26: 1.972 billion bu. (vs 2.209 billion bu. in December)
If USDA reduces U.S. yield and production numbers to trade expectations, that would still leave both figures at all-time highs, with 2025’s harvest up about 11% from 14.89 billion bu. in 2024. But last year’s bullish January surprise likely remains fresh in many traders’ minds.
Last January, USDA’s unexpectedly large cut to the U.S. corn yield helped trigger a winter rally that sent corn futures up as much as 63 cents over the next five weeks, with prices peaking at $5.19 on February 19, based on the most-active contract. That price turned out to be the high for the year, and most-active futures haven’t traded above $5 since last February.
USDA lowered its final yield average for the 2024 corn harvest to 179.3 bpa from 183.1 bpa previously, contrary to expectations for a smaller reduction. Many analysts believe the final yield number will be lower again this year after crop disease and unfavorable weather hampered yields in parts of the Midwest last summer.
Early Thursday, USDA reported export sales for the week ended January 1, meaning the market is now fully current on weekly data that was backlogged during last fall’s government shutdown. The latest figures showed a continued slide in corn sales, which is common around the holidays.
USDA said net U.S. corn sales for the week totaled 377,600 metric tons (14.9 million bushels), less than half the previous week’s sales, down 76% from the average for the previous four weeks and a marketing-year low. Sales fell well short of trade expectations that ranged from 700,000 MT to 1.5 million metric tons. South Korea led buyers at 139,000 MT.
Corn exports are still running at a record pace, which may prompt USDA to raise its forecast in Monday’s Supply and Demand report. Sales commitments for 2025-26 to date (including accumulated exports) now total 2.004 billion bushels, up 30% from the same period in 2024-25.
The Trump Administration’s Farmer Bridge Assistance Program, details of which were rolled out in late 2025, is aimed at providing relief for growers squeezed by years of weak crop prices. But agricultural economists question whether the checks, expected to arrive in February, can address years of mounting farm losses.
China nearing U.S. soybean purchase target
March soybeans rose 5 cents to $10.6625 overnight after shedding 5.75 cents Thursday to $10.6125, down from Wednesday’s near-two-week high. Futures are still up about 28 cents from a 2 ½-month low of $10.38 last Friday and up from $10.4575 at the end of last week.
Sideways pre-USDA consolidation continued overnight with futures retaining a stronger technical bias amid ideas the market has established a near-term bottom following the past week’s sharp rebound. March futures briefly pushed above the 20-day SMA ($10.67) while holding above the 10-day SMA ($10.6025). Near-term resistance includes this week’s high at $10.7050.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price fell about 5.75 cents Thursday to $9.88. Thursday’s average was about 73.25 cents below March futures, narrowing from 83.75 cents at the end of 2025.
March soybean meal rose $1.60 to $305.20 per ton. March soyoil rose 18 points to 49.63 cents per pound and is poised for a third consecutive weekly advance.
Soybean futures strengthened this week behind as fresh buying by China moved the country closer to a 12-MMT near-term purchase target the White House has said is part of a truce struck with the U.S. in October. Early Thursday, USDA reported private exporter soybean sales totaling 132,000 MT for delivery to China during 2025-26.
Additionally, the market may be anticipating price-supportive figures in Monday’s USDA reports, including possible downward revisions to U.S. soybean yield and production. The following are expectations for several closely followed USDA figures, based on the Reuters survey:
- U.S. soybean production: 4.229 billion bushels (vs. USDA’s November estimate of 4.253 billion bu.)
- U.S. soybean average yield: 52.7 bushels per acre (vs 53 bpa in November)
- U.S. December 1 soybean stocks: 3.25 billion bu. (vs 3.1 billion bu. a year earlier)
- U.S. soybean ending stocks, 2025-26: 292 million bu. (vs 290 million bu. in December)
- Brazil 2025-26 soybean production: 176.4 MMT (vs. 175 MMT in December)
USDA may also lower its forecast for U.S. soybean exports in 2025-26 due to a sharp dropoff in sales after China halted buying for part of last year. Exports are already expected to tumble 13% from 2024-25, to a 13-year low at 1.635 billion bushels, based on USDA’s current projection.
Similar to corn, a bullish January surprise in soybeans last year also sparked a winter rally. USDA slashed its average soybean yield estimate for the 2024 crop by a full bushel to 50.7, while production was reduced to 4.366 billion bushels, down 2.1% from the previous figure.
Soybean futures subsequently rallied as much as 81 cents, topping out at nearly $10.80 on February 5 before slumping the next two months, dropping as low as $9.6950 in early April.
Thursday’s export sales report provided further confirmation of Chinese purchases. Net U.S. soybean sales for the week ended January 1 totaled 877,900 MT (32.3 million bushels), down 26% from the week prior and down 42% from the four-week average. Sales were led by China, at 470,100 MT, including 66,000 MT switched from “unknown destinations.”
Based on the latest USDA report, China’s confirmed shipments and purchase commitments for U.S. soybeans now total around 7 MMT for 2025-26, though analysts believe the actual number is closer to 10 MMT when factoring in unreported sales.
U.S. exports are still off sharply from last year. Overall U.S. soybean export commitments for 2025-26 to date (including accumulated exports) now total 1.05 billion bushels, down 29% from the same period last year and a 14-year low.
Wheat exports continue to soften
March SRW wheat fell 0.25 cent to $5.1775 after ending unchanged Thursday, fading late from a two-week intraday high at $5.2450. Futures are up from $5.0650 at the end of last week.
SRW futures are up over 15 cents from last Friday’s contract low at $5.0150, suggesting prices may have found a bottom following a two-month slide. Speculators bought actively this week as they moved to trim a still-large net short position. Funds bought about 11,000 SRW futures contracts the first four days this week, based on StoneX estimates.
March HRW wheat fell 0.5 cent to $5.2975 after slipping 1.25 cents Thursday to $5.3025 for the market’s first decline in five days. March spring wheat fell 0.5 cent to $5.7075 after adding 0.75 cent Thursday and settling around the middle of the past week’s range.
Futures climbed this week behind concern expanding drought in the Southern Plains could eventually threaten the winter wheat. Earlier this week, the Kansas Department of Agriculture said it rated the state’s winter wheat crop at a combined 60% “good” or “excellent” as of Sunday, down from 62% in late November. But gains have been capped by softening export numbers.
Monday’s reports include USDA’s initial 2025 U.S. winter wheat planting estimates for the crop that will be harvested in 2026. Weak prices and low returns likely meant wheat lost acres to corn and soybeans, analysts say. Total winter wheat seedings are expected to drop to a six-year low.
The following summarizes expectations for several key USDA figures, based on the Reuters survey:
- U.S. 2025 all winter wheat seedings: 32.413 million acres (vs. 33.153 million in 2024)
- U.S. 2025 HRW wheat seedings: 23.028 million acres (vs. 23.489 million in 2024)
- U.S. December 1 wheat stocks: 1.636 billion bu. (vs 1.573 billion bu. a year earlier)
- U.S. wheat ending stocks, 2025-26: 896 million bu. (vs 901 million bu. in December)
U.S. wheat exports extended a recent slump into the new year, based on USDA’s latest weekly update.
Net U.S. wheat sales during the week ended January 1 totaled 118,700 MT (4.36 million bushels), up 24% from a marketing-year low the previous week but down 55% from the four-week average. The Philippines was the week’s top buyer at 61,000 MT.
Export demand is still up sharply from last year. For 2025-26 to date, U.S. wheat sales commitments (including accumulated exports) total 739.1 million bushels, up 18% from the same period in 2024-25.
Stock index futures firmer ahead of jobs report
Stock index futures firmed overnight as investors readied for the Labor Department’s December employment report and a potential Supreme Court ruling on the Trump administration’s tariffs. Analysts expect the report to show nonfarm payrolls rose about 73,000 last month.
Futures based on the S&P 500 rose less than 0.1%, while Nasdaq-100 futures added 0.2% and Dow futures were flat. The U.S. dollar index was up 0.1% after earlier climbing to its highest level in over four weeks.
February WTI crude oil futures rose 49 cents to $58.25 per barrel amid concern over disruption to Iran’s production with widespread protests taking place across the country. Gold futures rose 0.5% to about $4,483 per ounce.