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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.
What we’re watching
There’s no sugarcoating it – Monday’s USDA reports were just plain “ugly” for corn farmers, as one adviser put it. The blowout 17-billion-bushel crop was just one of many bearish figures that sent futures reeling toward $4, signaling burdensome supplies and a buyer’s market for the foreseeable future. As for marketing strategies, we’ll “have to go back to the drawing board,” the adviser said. Farm Futures runs down Monday’s biggest market-moving numbers.
Corn extends slide to five-month low
March corn futures fell 3.5 cents to $4.1825 per bushel in late overnight trading after earlier dropping to $4.1775, the contract’s lowest intraday price since $4.1425 on August 15. Futures plunged 24.25 cents Monday to $4.2150.
Corn technicals took a sharply bearish turn as Monday’s selloff sent March futures crashing below the past two months’ range and tumbling toward levels last traded late last summer. It’s an open question whether the market can find some support and consolidate for a few days or further probe the downside, perhaps for an eventual test of the $4 area given the market’s severely-weakened charts. Downside levels to watch include $4.15 and the contract low at $4.10.Monday’s bearish reports prompted speculators to flip to heavy sellers after last week’s buying spree. Funds sold about 52,000 corn futures contracts Monday after buying 47,000 contracts last week, based on StoneX estimates.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price tumbled 24 cents Monday to just under $3.8325. Monday’s average was about 38.25 cents below March futures, compared to a discount of about 44 cents at the end of 2025.
Corn futures extended Monday’s nosedive overnight as USDA’s shockingly bearish reports forced a major reassessment of the longer-term outlook for supplies and prices. USDA numbers included an unexpected 0.5-bushels-per-acre boost to its final 2025 average yield estimate, to a record 186.5 bushels per acre. Harvest was pegged at a record 17.021 billion bushels.
“From top to bottom, USDA’s reports were fundamentally negative for corn, soybeans and wheat,” StoneX analyst Randy Mittelstaedt said in a report, noting that 2025-26 ending U.S. stocks estimates for all three crops came out higher than expected. Supplies may climb further because it’s unlikely demand will rise much from already-high levels.
“With demand going forward remaining questionable, additional upward revisions in U.S. corn and soybean ending stocks appear possible/likely in our opinion as the 2025-26 marketing year progresses,” Mittelstaedt said.
Below is a summary of several key corn and soybean numbers from the reports:
Corn production soared last year after U.S. farmers boosted planted acreage to a nine-decade high, then benefited from largely favorable growing conditions across much of the Midwest last summer. USDA also raised average yields for several Midwest states, including Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska and North Dakota.
At 17.021 billion bushels, USDA’s final estimate for the 2025 crop surged 269 million bushels over a previous estimate in November would mark a jump of over 2 billion bushels, or 14%, from 2024. The production and yield numbers were part of USDA’s annual Crop Production Annual Summary.
USDA also raised its forecast for U.S. corn stocks at the end of the 2025-26 marketing year by 198 million bushels to 2.227 billion bushels, up 44% from 2024-25 and a seven-year high.
The heavy supply outlook further complicates matters for beleaguered farmers, who face another year of depressed prices and limited profit prospects.
“There are a lot of bushels of old-crop (corn) out there in the bins still, and that puts the commercials/grain buyers in a strong position to simply wait and buy when farmers will need to raise cash,” said Jon Prischmann, President of Blue Creek Commodities and Hedging LLC in Fergus Falls, Minnesota. “We will have to go back to the drawing board for 2026 hedge ideas to try and make some numbers work.”
Also Monday, USDA reported private exporter corn sales totaling 204,000 metric tons for delivery to South Korea during the 2025-26 marketing year, along with 310,000 MT to “unknown destinations,” also for 2025-26 delivery.
Soybeans pressed by sharply high Brazil crop
March soybeans fell 4.5 cents to $10.4450 overnight after earlier touching $10.4150, the contract’s lowest intraday price since January 2. Futures tumbled 13.5 cents Monday to $10.49.Soybeans didn’t take nearly as big a chart hit from the USDA data but technicals have softened this week, with March futures dropping back near a 2 ½-month low of $10.38 posted the first trading day of the year. A push under that low could prompt bears to test the $10.30 area, 2 cents above the October low. Futures have also dropped under the 10- and 20-day simple moving averages (SMAs) at $10.5575 and $10.62, respectively.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price fell about 13.25 cents Monday to $9.7650. Monday’s average was about 72.5 cents below March futures, narrowing from 83.75 cents at the end of 2025.
March soybean meal fell $2.20 to $296.10 per ton after sinking $5.40 Monday. March soyoil rose 33 points to 50.60 cents per pound and is tracking for the contract’s fourth consecutive daily advance.
Monday’s USDA numbers were also generally bearish for soybeans. USDA pegged the average 2025 U.S. soybean yield at 53 bpa, unchanged from the November estimate. Analysts expected a reduction of about 0.3 bpa. USDA boosted production 9 million bushels to 4.262 billion bushels, down 2.6% from 2024’s crop but contrary to expectations for a drop of about 24 million bushels.
USDA also cut its U.S. soybean export forecast, reflecting U.S.-China trade tensions that prompted the Chinese to avoid buying U.S. beans much of last year. Soybean exports for 2025-26 were lowered 60 million bushels to 1.575 billion bushels, down 16% from 2024-25 and a 13-year low.
U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2025-26 were raised 60 million bushels to an estimated 350 million bushels, up 25 million bushels from 2024-25 and a six-year high.
Prospects for another massive South American crop further fueled bearishness. USDA raised its 2026 Brazil crop estimate more than expected, lifting production to 3 million metric tons to 178 MMT (6.54 billion bushels), up almost 4% from 2025. Analysts expected an increase closer to 1.4 MMT. Global soybean stocks this year are seen heading for a record 124.4 MMT.
“It’s going to be hard to climb out of the (market’s) hole with South America’s harvest starting to ramp up toward the end of January,” Prischmann said.
Soybean traders will continue to watch for additional Chinese purchases after a flurry of buying recent weeks. On Friday, Reuters reported China’s state stockpiler Sinograin bought at least 10 cargoes, or at least 600,000 MT of U.S. soybeans, for shipment in April and May. China now appears to be close to fulfilling the White House’s 12-MMT initial purchase target that arose from last fall’s trade truce between Beijing and Washington.
Also Monday, USDA said soybean export inspections totaled 1.53 MMT during the week ended January 8, up 55% from the previous week and up 13% from the same week a year earlier. China was the top destination at 901,118 MT. Shipments for the marketing year to date now total 658.9 million bushels, down 43% from the same period in 2024-25 and near a 14-year low.
USDA’s wheat numbers also bearish
March SRW wheat fell 1.5 cents to $5.0975 after shedding 6 cents Monday to $5.1125, the contract’s lowest close since January 6. SRW futures are up over 15 cents from a contract low at $5.0150 on January 2.
March HRW wheat fell 3.75 cents to $5.23 after dropping 3.5 cents Monday to $5.2675. Prices faded after rising earlier in the day to an eight-week intraday high at $5.4475. March spring wheat rose 3.5 cents to $5.6925 after losing 1.75 cents Monday to end near a four-week low.
Wheat futures extended weakness from Monday’s bearish USDA data. In its Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings report, USDA estimated 2025 U.S. winter wheat plantings at 32.99 million acres, down about 163 million acres from last year but about 577,000 acres above expectations.
USDA’s number would still mark the fewest winter wheat seeded acres since 2020. HRW seedings are expected to drop slightly to 23.5 million acres, while SRW areas are expected to rise less than 1%, to 6.14 million acres.
In its Supply and Demand report, USDA boosted estimated U.S. wheat stocks at the end of the 2025-26 marketing year by 25 million bushels to 926 million bushels. As of December 1, nationwide wheat stockpiles totaled 1.675 billion bushels, about 40 million bushels above expectations and up 6.6% from a year earlier.
The global supply outlook continued to expand. USDA hiked its estimate for worldwide wheat supplies at the end of 2025-26 by nearly 3.4 MMT, or 1.2%, to 278.3 MMT (10.2 billion bushels), a five-year high. The increase reflects bigger crops in Argentina and Russia.
Wheat supplies are “comfortable, not tight,” Puglisi said in his LinkedIn post. “Winter wheat seedings for 2026 are only marginally lower — not a game changer.”
U.S. wheat export demand may be perking up from a late-2025 slump, based on USDA’s weekly export inspections report Monday.
USDA said wheat export inspections for the week ended January 8 totaled 317,465 MT (11.7 million bushels), up 73% from a marketing-year low the previous week and up 2.2% from the same week a year earlier. The Philippines was the top destination at 100,459 MT. For 2025-26 to date, wheat shipments now total 572.4 million bushels, up 19% from the same period in 2024-25 and about 64% of USDA’s full-year target of 900 million bushels.
Stock index futures lower ahead of CPI report
Stock index futures eased overnight as investors waited for the release of the December Consumer Price Index report, which will help set the outlook for interest rate policy in early 2026. Analysts look for a year-over-year increase of about 2.7% in overall CPI.
Futures based on the S&P 500 and the Dow industrials both fell about 0.1%, while Nasdaq-100 futures dropped 0.2%. On Monday, the underlying S&P 500 posted its third record close of the year. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.1%, putting it on track for its fifth gain in the past six days.
February WTI crude oil futures jumped $1.10 to a two-month high at $60.60 amid escalating concern over supply disruptions stemming from anti-government protests in Iran. Gold futures fell 0.5% to about $4,593 per ounce in a modest pullback from Monday’s record above $4,640.
What else I’m reading at www.FarmFutures.com this morning:
- Federal bridge payments for struggling farmers are expected to go out next month, but the chairman of the House Ag Committee thinks it won’t be enough.