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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.
What we’re watching
The U.S. and Israel’s attacks on Iran have disrupted fertilizer supplies, and farmers worldwide are rushing to secure critical nutrients ahead of the spring growing season. “We grabbed what we needed,” South Dakota farmer Chet Edinger told Bloomberg, referring to urea, which he said cost 22% more than it did in late 2025. It was “the highest price I ever had to pay."
Corn pullback suggests near-term top
May corn futures fell 2.25 cents to $4.5150 per bushel late in overnight trading after dropping 6.75 cents Monday to $4.5375, just 0.75 cent above the day’s low. December futures fell 3 cents to $4.7875.
Corn futures gapped lower at the overnight open as the market extended Monday’s poor chart performance. May futures didn’t quite attain a bearish outside day lower but the market’s sharp pullback from 10-month highs may fuel ideas that prices established a near-term top. Overnight, May futures briefly dipped below the 100- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) around $4.4625 and $4.4750, respectively.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price fell over 8 cents Monday to just above $4.10. Monday’s average was about 43.75 cents below May futures, widening from 41 cents a week earlier.
Corn futures extended Monday’s slide as a sharp pullback in crude oil prices spurred heavy speculator selling. Funds sold an estimated 43,000 corn futures contracts Monday after buying about 50,000 contracts last Thursday and Friday.
Oil prices retreated from four-year highs after President Trump said the war in Iran could end “very soon” and promised that the U.S. Navy would provide escorts for oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz. April WTI futures fell over $5 to about $89.35 per barrel late in overnight trading after jumping above $119 Monday.
USDA’s Supply and Demand report today may show a slight increase in estimated U.S. corn stocks at the end of 2025-26. Stocks may rise about 28 million bushels from 2.127 billion bushels in February’s report, based on industry analysts. General market impact is likely to be limited with traders eyeing Prospective Plantings and quarterly Grain Stocks reports March 31.
In February, USDA raised its estimate for U.S. corn exports during the 2025-26 marketing year for the fourth time since August, underscoring strong demand that’s consistently outraced government projections. Corn exports were lifted 100 million bushels to a record 3.3 billion bushels, up 15% from 2024-25. USDA made a corresponding cut of 100 million bushels to 2025-26 ending stocks, to 2.127 billion bushels, still a seven-year high and a 37% jump from 2024-25.
USDA kept its corn production estimates for Argentina and Brazil unchanged at 53 MMT (2.09 billion bushels) and 131 MMT, respectively.
USDA’s weekly inspections report Monday reflected a slight pullback in corn exports late last month, though shipments remain up sharply from last year.
Corn inspected for export during the week ended March 5 totaled 1.518 million metric tons (59.8 million bushels), down 18% from the previous week and down 18% from the same week a year earlier. Mexico was the top destination at 510,148 metric tons. For 2025-26 to date, corn shipments total 1.622 billion bushels, up 42% from the same period in 2024-25 and 49% of USDA’s full-year export projection for a record 3.3 billion bushels.
USDA has raised its 2025-26 corn export forecast four times since August and may need to make further upward revisions, analysts say. The most recent was a 100-million-bushel increase to a record 3.3 billion bushels in February’s Supply and Demand report.
Elsewhere, Brazil’s AgRural estimated the country’s first corn crop was 42% harvested as of last Thursday, behind the 54% pace last year. The second corn crop was about 82% planted, lagging the 92% pace from last year.
The Middle East war that sparked last week’s grain market rally is just one of many variables farmers must keep an eye on. Today’s monthly WASDE update, for example, and then USDA’s much-anticipated Prospective Plantings report March 31. Total Farm Marketing’s Naomi Blohm runs through a quick watch-list.
Soybean ending stocks may be trimmed
May soybeans rose 2.25 cents to $11.9850 overnight after sinking 4.5 cents Monday to $11.9625, a sharp pullback from an overnight surge to $12.3375, the highest intraday price for a most active contract since late May 2024. November soybeans rose 0.25 cent to $11.4850.
Soybeans also gapped lower at the overnight open before reclaiming much of the market’s initial slide after May futures held support at the 10-day SMA ($11.7750). Prices remain in a steep uptrend but the sharp reversal from Monday’s spike above $12 could foster ideas a market top is forming. Upside levels to watch include the May 2024 highs around $12.58, based on continuation charts.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price fell almost 5.25 cents Monday to $11.2150. Monday’s average was about 74.75 cents below May futures, widening from under 73 cents a week earlier.
May soybean meal rose $2.90 to $316.50 per ton after fading from a one-week high to end with a loss of 1.2% Monday. May soyoil fell 12 points to 65.98 cents per pound after dropping 48 points Monday. Soyoil futures initially rallied to 69.91 cents, the highest intraday price for a most-active contract since November 2022.
Soybeans initially followed crude oil lower before finding buying interest toward the end of overnight trading. But with overbought signals flashing, funds may be keen to book some profits on what’s become a sizable net long position, especially with Brazil in the midst of what’s expected to be a record harvest.
USDA’s Supply and Demand report today may include a small reduction in the agency’s estimate for 2025-26 U.S. ending stocks. Stocks may be trimmed about 7 million bushels from 350 million bushels currently, based on industry estimates.
The market will also keep an eye on production prospects from Brazil’s soybean harvest, which was nearing its halfway point late last week. In February, USDA raised its 2025-26 Brazil soybean production forecast by 2 MMT, or 1.1%, to 180 MMT (6.61 billion bushels), a 5% jump over 2024-25 and a record for the third time in the past four years. Argentina’s estimated crop was left unchanged at 48.5 MMT.
USDA’s weekly export inspections report Monday showed a pullback from late February levels despite continued shipments to China.
Soybean inspections for the week ended March 5 totaled 879,190 MT (32.3 million bushels), down 24% from the previous week and but up 2.5% from the same week a year earlier. China was the top destination at 411,462 MT. For 2025-26 to date, shipments now total 995.2 million bushels, down 30% from the same period in 2024-25 and 63% of USDA’s full-year target of 1.575 billion bushels.
Soybean inspections will need to average about 21.1 million bushels per week the rest of the 2025-26 marketing year to reach USDA’s forecast, according to StoneX analyst Randy Mittelstaedt. That would be higher than last year’s March-August average at about 16.6 million bushels per week.
Elsewhere, consultancy AgRural estimated that 51% of Brazil’s 2025-26 soybean crop was harvested as of last Thursday, down from 61% complete a year earlier.
Wheat pulls back as Middle East concerns ease
March SRW wheat fell 2.25 cents to $6.01 after dropping 13.5 cents Monday to $6.0325, a sharp retreat following an initial spike to $6.4175, the highest intraday price for a most-active contract since June 2024. Futures are still up almost 70 cents, or 13%, from February lows around $5.32.
March HRW wheat fell 0.75 cent to $6.19 after fading from near an 11-month high Monday to post a loss of 3.75 cents. March spring wheat fell 9 cents to $6.37 after adding 3 cents Monday, near an eight-month high.
Wheat futures extended declines overnight amid easing worries over an extended Middle East conflict. Further signs that the conflict may be relatively brief would likely result in the removal of additional war from wheat prices and raise the prospect that Monday’s highs marked a near-term top. An outlook for continued dryness in the Southern Plains could temper downside.
Fundamentals otherwise remain mostly bearish, with global wheat supplies ample and U.S. wheat exports eroding.
Today’s Supply and Demand report may include a slight decrease in U.S. 2025-26 wheat ending stocks. In February, USDA hiked its forecast by 5 million bushels to 931 million bushels, up almost 9% from 2024-25. But estimated global ending stocks shrank 0.3% to 277.5 MMT (10.2 billion bushels), contrary to expectations for little change.
U.S. wheat shipments began the month with a sharp upturn. USDA said wheat export inspections for the week ended March 5 totaled 496,108 MT (18.2 million bushels), up 40% from a four-week low the previous week and more than double the total from the same week in 2025. China was the top destination at 198,942 MT.
For 2025-26 to date, shipments now total 702.7 million bushels, up 20% from the same period in 2024-25 and 78% of USDA’s full-year target of 900 million bushels. Inspections need to average 13.6 million bushels a week through the end of May to reach the USDA’s forecast, Mittelstaedt estimated. A year ago, inspections averaged 18.2 million bushels per week during that period.
This year’s strong shipments may prompt USDA to raise its 2025-26 wheat export estimate, which is already pegged at a five-year high. Export sales “continue to run at a respectable pace,” Mittelstaedt wrote. “We continue to expect 2025-26 U.S. wheat exports to prove at least 25 million bushels larger than the USDA's current projection.”
Elsewhere, consultant APK-Inform estimated the 2026 Ukraine grain harvest at 58.6 MMT, down 4.1% from 61.1 MMT in 2025 and a reflection of a smaller wheat crop. The firm still expects Ukraine’s 2026-27 exports to increase 4.4% from to 41.96 MMT from 40.18 MMT the previous year.
Colder temperatures for Midwest next week
Much of the eastern Corn Belt and the Southeast is in line for precipitation this week, with 0.5 inch to as much as 2 inches possible across Illinois, Indiana and Ohio today through Friday, based on the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Lighter amounts are seen for the western Belt and Southern Plains.
Colder than normal temperatures are expected to expand from the Midwest into the Southeast starting next week, based on the latest National Weather Service 6-to-14-day outlook, which covers March 15-19. The 8-to-14-day outlook continues to call for little moisture relief for the Plains and western Corn Belt, with below-normal precipitation seen for the region March 17-23.
Stock index futures firmer as oil prices fall
Stock index futures firmed overnight after President Trump’s comments signaling a quick end to the Middle East conflict sent oil prices lower.
Futures based on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 indexes rose 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively, while Dow futures were little changed. The U.S. dollar index fell about 0.5% after earlier dropping to a one-week low amid easing concern over an extended war with Iran.
April WTI futures fell over $5 to about $89.35 per barrel late in overnight trading, down from a four-year high above $119 posted Monday. Gold futures jumped almost 2% to about $5,199 per ounce.
What else I’m reading at www.FarmFutures.com this morning:
- Grain prices have been sucked into a volatile market maelstrom sparked by the Iran conflict, and some moves by certain commodities were “head-scratching,” contributing analyst Bryce Knorr says. A dig down “in the weeds” offers clues to the key drivers, including money flow from big players.