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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.

What we’re watching

Friday’s USDA reports prompted grain market bulls to turn tail, with soybean futures retreating over 20 cents. But the initial bearish response doesn’t necessarily mark the end of the recent rallies, AgMarket.Net’s Tyler Schau says. Considering yields could be revised lower as more data comes in, it’s “too early to say that highs are in” for corn or soybeans, Schau said. “More fireworks” could be coming in upcoming USDA reports, he says. Read the Farm Futures recap.

Corn burdened by record crop forecast

December corn futures rose 0.5 cent to $4.3075 after earlier dropping to $4.2850, the contract’s lowest intraday price since November 11. Future sank 11.25 cents Friday to $4.3025, down from a five-month closing high the previous day. December futures still gained 3 cents last week to record the market’s fourth weekly advance in the past five weeks.

Corn managed a modest rebound overnight from Friday’s bearish close, with December futures climbing to gains after a brief drop under the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) around $4.3025. The most-active contract hasn’t closed under the 20-day SMA since October 15. Other key downside levels to watch include last week’s low at $4.2625.

Last week’s double-top high at $4.4275 in December futures and chart damage from Friday’s selloff raise the prospect that the market has established a near-term peak.

“Despite staying positive on the week, corn futures posted a negative turn on the charts technically,” Grain Market Insider said, referring to Friday’s trade. Prices this week “could remain pressured by technical selling and possible selling pressure from other grains. However, the weakness in corn prices should open the U.S. market back up for additional export activity.”

Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price fell about 11 cents Friday to just under $3.9150, which was still up 4.5 cents for the week. Friday’s cash average was about 39 cents below December futures, narrowing from slightly less than 40.25 cents a week earlier.

Friday’s bearish USDA numbers further underscored the likelihood a record crop will lead to heavy supply overhang next year, despite record exports and otherwise strong demand. In its November Crop Production report, USDA lowered its estimate for the average U.S. corn yield less than expected, to 186 bushels per acre (bpa) from 186.7 bpa in September. Analysts expected the yield to come in closer to 184 bpa.

USDA also lowered its estimate for the 2025 U.S. corn harvest less than expected with a cut of 62 million bushels to 16.752 billion bushels, compared to expectations for a drop of over 250 million bushels. Both the new yield and production figures remain records. Based on USDA’s new estimate, this year’s crop will surge 1.86 billion bushels, or over 12%, above 2024’s crop.

In its Supply and Demand report also released Friday, USDA boosted its forecast for corn stocks at the end of the 2025-26 marketing year by 44 million bushels to 2.154 billion bushels, lower than analysts projected but still a seven-year high. Exports for 2025-26 rose 100 million bushels to 3.075 billion bushels, while ethanol demand was kept unchanged at 5.6 billion bushels.

AgMarket.Net’s Schau cautioned that Friday’s losses don’t necessarily mean the recent rallies in corn and soybeans are over. It’s possible yields could be revised even lower in subsequent USDA reports.

“If you look at state-level yield data as reported by the USDA, we feel it is too early to say that highs are in” for corn or soybeans, Schau said. “There seems to be a lot of variability in yields in some important states, notably, Iowa and Illinois. More fireworks for December and January WASDE reports are likely.”

With USDA reopened following the end of the record government shutdown, the grain markets should start receiving more data this week, including weekly Crop Progress after today’s close. The corn harvest was estimated to be about 92% finished at the start of last week.

USDA will also report weekly export inspections today. A week ago, corn inspections for the week ended November 6 totaled 1.425 million metric tons (56.1 million bushels), down 17% from the previous week and but still up 76% from 807,420 metric tons (MT) for the same week a year earlier.

Also Friday, USDA released a backlog of so-called flash sale announcements from October 1 through November 12, with 4.915 million metric tons reported as large sales (exceeding 100,000 metric tons). The totals included 12.2 million bushels of new-crop soybean sales to China from October 30-November 3.

Soybeans rebound from Friday’s downturn

January soybeans rose 11 cents to $11.3550 after earlier dropping to $11.1425, the contract’s lowest intraday price since November 7. On Friday, futures plunged 22.5 cents to $11.2450, down from a 17-month intraday high of $11.5225 posted overnight. Futures still gained 7.5 cents for the week to mark a fifth consecutive weekly advance.

Soybeans generated a sharp rebound overnight as corrective buying emerged, lifting January futures back above the 10-day SMA ($11.2750). The market’s technical posture took a bearish turn with Friday’s selloff, however, raising the potential prices may have established a near-term peak following a $1-plus rally since mid-October. On Friday, January futures closed under the 10-day SMA for the first time since October 16.

Key downside levels to watch this week include the 20-day SMA ($11.0625) and the November low ($11.0350).

Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price dropped about 22.75 cents Friday to $10.5025, still up over 7.25 cents for the week. Friday’s average was about 74.25 cents below January futures, narrowing slightly from 74.25 cents a week earlier.

Friday’s USDA numbers were more of a mixed bag for soybeans. USDA cuts its average U.S. yield estimate to 53 bpa, down from 53.5 bpa in September and slightly lower than expected. The yield would be up from 50.7 bpa in 2024 and surpass the existing record of 51.9 bpa, set in 2016.

USDA also lowered estimated U.S. soybean production more than expected, with a reduction of 48 million bushels to 4.253 billion bushels, down almost 4% from the 2024 crop. U.S. soybean stocks at the end of 2025-26 were lowered 10 million bushels to 290 million bushels, a three-year low.

However, bullishness was tempered by other numbers, including a 50-million-bushel cut in 2025-26 U.S. exports, to 1.635 billion bushels, down 13% from 2024-25 and a 13-year low. The export reduction outweighed USDA’s ending stocks cut, “making the report net bearish,” Grain Market Insider said.

USDA also hiked the 2024-25 Brazilian soybean crop 1.5% to a record 171.5 MMT (6.3 billion bushels). In 2025-26, USDA expects Brazil’s crop to expand another 2% to 175 MMT. World ending stocks were lowered 1.6% to a record 121.99 MMT (4.48 billion bushels).

The market will be watching closely for export sales announcement this week amid ongoing hopes for new China soybean business. Also today, the National Oilseed Processors Association is expected to report recent October soybean crushing at 209.55 million bushels, up from 197.9 million bushels in September.

A week ago, USDA reported soybean export inspections at 1.089 MMT (40 million bushels) for the week ended November 6, up 11% from the prior week and down 54% from the same week in 2024.

Wheat fundamentals remain bearish

March SRW wheat rose 4.75 cents to $5.32 after dropping 10.75 cents Friday to $5.4150, a two-week closing low. The most-active contract gave up 0.75 cent last week.

March HRW futures rose 3.75 to $5.19 after tumbling 12 cents Friday to a two-week closing low. March spring wheat rose 5.25 cents to $5.70 after shedding 6.75 cents Friday to $5.7625, still up 3.25 cents for the week.

Wheat futures remain well-above five-year lows posted in mid-October but rally potential likely will be limited by bearish fundamentals underscored by Friday’s USDA reports.

USDA raised 2025-26 U.S. wheat ending stocks more than expected, by 57 million bushels to 900 million bushels, a six-year high. Analysts expected stocks to increase only about 23 million bushels. The increase reflected a larger 2025 U.S. wheat harvest, which, at 1.985 billion bushels, marked the highest in nine years.

Global wheat stockpiles look to rise sharply next year due to stronger production prospects in top producers including Argentina, Australia and Russia. USDA hiked estimated world ending wheat supplies at the end of 2025-26 by 2.8% to 271.43 MMT (9.97 billion bushels), up 3.8% from 2024-25.

World production was revised up 1.6% from USDA’s September forecast to 828.89 MMT (30.5 billion bushels), the highest since at least 1990.

U.S. exports for 2025-26 were held unchanged at 900 million bushels, up 9% from 2024-25.

A week ago, USDA reported weekly wheat export inspections at 290,514 MT (10.7 million bushels), down 17% from the previous week and down 18% from the same week in 2024.

Elsewhere, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange last week raised its 2025-26 Argentine wheat production estimate to a record 24 MMT, up from 22 MMT from a previous forecast and above the previous 22.4 MMT record set in 2021-22.

FranceAgriMer reported that the French soft wheat crop was 89% planted at the start of last week, up from 79% from the week before and above the 76% planted at the same time a year earlier.

Rain likely for much of Midwest this week

Rainfall is heading for much of the central and eastern Corn Belt this week, with trace amounts to 0.75 inch possible from Iowa, Missouri and southern Minnesota eastward to Ohio today through Thursday, based on NOAA’s 72-hour map.

The rest of the month likely will continue to bring above-normal temperatures, as well as elevated precipitation potential, for the central U.S. up to Thanksgiving, based on the National Weather Service’s 6-to-10-day and 8-to-14-day outlooks. The latest outlooks, which cover November 22-30, call for above-normal precipitation from the Central and Southern Plains into the Midwest.

In Brazil, growing regions in the northeast and center-west were expected to see limited precipitation through early this week, leading to net drying conditions, according to World Weather. However, rain potential is seen improving starting the middle of this week. “That rain will be very important,” the forecaster said, because northeastern areas “will be quite dry and in need of greater precipitation to support new planting.”

Northern Brazil dryness is not a “crisis,” World Weather added, “But improved rainfall is needed to protect production potentials, especially during the latter part of this month and in December.”

Stocks mixed following volatile week

Stock index futures were mixed overnight following a volatile week during which the major averages came under pressure from concern over high technology company valuations and reduced prospects for interest rate cuts.

Futures based on the S&P 500 index rose 0.1%, while Nasdaq-100 futures added over 0.2% and Dow futures were little changed. The U.S. dollar index rose less than 0.1% as the market extended a modest rebound from Thursday’s drop to a two-week low.

January WTI crude oil futures fell 7 cents to $59.88 per barrel. Gold futures fell over 0.3% to about $4,080 per ounce.

What else I’m reading at www.FarmFutures.com this morning: