Farmfutures

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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.

What we’re watching

The Trump administration’s $12 billion aid package may bring temporary relief for U.S. producers but is unlikely to kickstart a lasting recovery for the American farm economy, many farmers say. “This is kind of a Band-Aid — we need more markets more than we need aid,” Missouri farmer Marty Richardson told Bloomberg. “We’re behind the eight ball.”

Corn fails to follow through on bullish USDA numbers

March corn futures fell 1.5 cents to $4.4650 late in overnight trading after gaining 4.25 cents Tuesday to $4.48, breaking a two-day slide to post the contract’s highest close since December 2.

Corn futures dropped back toward the middle of the past month’s range overnight as the market struggled to generate follow-through buying from Tuesday’s gains amid slowing pre-holiday trade. Tuesday’s strength helped March futures close back above the 200-day simple moving average around $4.47, but the market continues to face stiff resistance just above $4.50.

Near-term support includes the 20- and 50-day SMAs ($4.45 and $4.4125, respectively), along with this week’s low at $4.4250.

Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price rose about 4.5 cents Tuesday to $4.0250. Tuesday’s cash average was about 45.5 cents below March futures, narrowing from 55.25 cents a month earlier.

USDA delivered some unexpectedly bullish data in Tuesday’s Supply and Demand update, including another boost to its corn export forecast. But upside momentum faded overnight amid continued weakness in the soy complex and bearish longer-term supply fundamentals.

In Tuesday's report, USDA hiked its estimate for U.S. corn exports during the 2025-26 marketing year for the fourth consecutive month, lifting the number 125 million bushels to a record 3.2 billion bushels. The increase was an acknowledgement of the robust demand that’s seen shipments so far this year running almost 70% above last year’s pace.

USDA also cut its outlook for U.S. corn supplies at the close of 2025-26 next August by a corresponding 125 million bushels, to 2.029 billion bushels. That was a much larger than expected reduction but still would leave stocks at a seven-year high.

StoneX Chief Commodities Economist Arlan Suderman noted USDA continued to keep its forecast for domestic corn feed use unchanged at 6.1 billion bushels, a level he believes is too high in light of current livestock inventories.

USDA’s increase in corn exports “can be justified, but it only delays the inevitable decrease in feed usage, which remains several hundred million bushels too high,” Suderman said in a note. “However, USDA is waiting for the final production numbers in January, hoping a big reduction will give it cover to cut feed use.”

Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins on Monday announced a $12 billion direct aid package for U.S. farmers hurt by trade disruptions, high input costs and slumping grain prices. The so-called bridge payments are expected to be distributed by the end of February and, according to President Trump, “would not be possible without tariffs.” Policy Editor Joshua Baethge breaks down the details.

USDA data a mixed bag for soybeans

January soybeans fell 4.5 cents to $10.8275 late overnight after earlier slipping to $10.8150, the contract’s lowest intraday price since $10.7050 on October 30. A loss today would be the contract’s seventh decline in the past eight days.

Soybean technicals remain in retreat after January futures on Tuesday settled under the 50-day SMA ($10.9075) for the first time since October 17 and appear heading for a test of some key chart areas, including $10.70. That price marks the top of a gap left in the daily bar chart from late October. Other downside levels to watch include the 100-day SMA (about $10.6725).

Futures have tumbled over 87 cents, or 7.5%, from a 17-month high of $11.6950 on November 18.

Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price fell about 6.5 cents Tuesday to $10.1650. Tuesday’s average was roughly 70.75 cents below January futures, narrowing from 74.25 cents a month earlier.

January soybean meal fell $2.10 to $299.20 per ton after earlier dropping below $300 for the first time since late October. A loss today would be the market’s ninth straight daily decline. January soybean oil rose 30 points to 51.32 cents per pound after easing another 0.3% Tuesday to end near a two-week low.

USDA’s Supply and Demand report was a mixed bag for the soybean market, as price-supportive U.S. figures were neutralized by bearish global numbers.

Estimated U.S. soybean stocks at the end of 2025-26 were unchanged at a three-year low of 290 million bushels, contrary to expectations for an increase of about 16 million bushels. However, USDA hiked its estimates for 2026 global soybean production and ending stocks, citing stronger crop prospects in India and Russia.

USDA boosted its forecast for ending 2025-26 soybean stocks 0.3% to 122.4 MMT (4.5 billion bushels), which would still be down 0.7% from 2024-25. Brazil’s soybean crop was kept unchanged at a record 175 million metric tons (6.43 billion bushels).

Sluggish U.S. exports could have justified another cut to USDA’s 2025-26 soybean export forecast, but the agency held its estimate at 1.635 billion bushels, a 13-year low. Suderman said USDA effectively “kicked the can down the road on exports, waiting to see if China comes through on its commitments” to make near-term purchases of U.S. beans.

Traders continue to monitor China after the country accelerated purchases of U.S. soybeans in recent weeks in the wake of a trade truce with the U.S. But the market remains skeptical whether Chinese purchases will reach the 12-MMT near-term target the White House touted.

Early Monday, USDA reported private exporter soybean sales totaling 132,000 metric tons (4.85 million bushels) for delivery to China during 2025-26. Monday’s announcement followed several previous USDA sales reports over the past three weeks and brought recent confirmed Chinese purchases to a total of just over 2.84 MMT (104.4 million bushels). That’s less than one-fourth of the 12 MMT the White House said China would purchase by the end of 2025. Trump officials this week clarified the time frame, saying they expected the target to be reached by the end of February.

Elsewhere, weather conditions appear to be improving for South American crops with frequent rain forecast the next two weeks in several key Brazil growing areas. Argentina is also expected to receive timely rainfall.

USDA report bearish for wheat

March SRW wheat fell 5.5 cents to $5.29 after earlier touching $5.2825, the contract’s lowest intraday price since October 24. A loss today would be the market’s fourth straight daily decline.

Wheat technicals continue to erode with March SRW futures pushing under the lower end of the range held since the last half of November. A drop under near-term support around $5.30, near last month’s low, could prompt bears to aim for the lower-$5.20s that traded during October.

March HRW futures fell 3.75 cents to $5.2325 after adding 0.5 cent Tuesday to $5.27 to halt a two-day losing streak. March spring wheat fell 1.25 cents to $5.75 after jumping 5 cents Tuesday in a bounce-back from a five-week low to start the week.

Tuesday’s USDA report included few changes to the domestic balance sheet, which was disappointing for bulls in light of expectations that strong exports could prompt a small cut to 2026 stockpiles.

Instead, USDA held its outlook for 2025-26 U.S. ending stocks unchanged at 901 million bushels, a six-year high. Exports were kept unchanged at 900 million bushels, a five-year high.

The report further underscored the bearish global supply picture. USDA boosted global ending wheat stocks to 274.9 MMT, up 5.7% from 2024-25 and a four-year high. Production was raised to 837.8 MMT, up 4.6% from last year and a record for the sixth year in a row. Increases in several key production areas, including Canada, Russia, Australia and Argentina, were noted.

Cold weekend, snow ahead for Midwest

A brief mid-week warmup across the Midwest will quickly reverse by the weekend, with more snow likely and temperatures tumbling into the teens and single-digits from Des Moines eastward through Indianapolis. Temperatures across the region appear poised to rebound early next week.

The National Weather Service’s latest 6-to-10-day and 8-to-14-day outlooks indicate extreme cold will start to shift out of the Midwest starting around the middle of the month and temperatures will return closer to normal. The 8-to-14-day outlook, which covers December 17-23, calls for normal temperatures for most of the eastern Corn Belt and above-normal temperatures for the western Belt and most of the Plains.

Wall Street anticipates another Fed rate cut

Stock index futures were little changed overnight as investors waited for the conclusion of the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting later today and the central bank's decision on interest rates. Economists expect the Fed to lower its benchmark funds rate for the third time in four months amid concern over slower job growth.

Futures based on the S&P 500 index fell about 0.1%, while Nasdaq-100 futures eased over 0.2%. The U.S. dollar index was little changed as the benchmark continued to stabilize following a drop to five-week lows last week.