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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.
What we’re watching
Amid Mexico's expanding appetite for U.S. grain, export prospects for the next decade and beyond in part depend on whether the U.S-Mexico-Canada trade agreement is renewed July 1. Strong U.S.-Mexico trade can help underpin economic stability for farmers, Terrain’s Bree Baatz says. As Mexico’s population grows and more people move into the middle class, “we’re seeing a significant increase in protein consumption,” Baatz says in our latest Ag Marketing IQ In Depth video.
Corn traders wait for ethanol, export numbers
March corn futures rose 1.25 cents to $4.23 per bushel in late overnight trading after dropping 2 cents Wednesday to $4.2175. The contract faded from an early climb to a one-week high at $4.2775.
Corn traded in a narrow range overnight as the market extended a post-USDA consolidation, with March futures hovering around the mid-point of the past week’s range. Futures appear to have found a near-term bottom but the failure to hold Wednesday’s early gains suggests a lack of upside conviction, with funds having built their largest net short position in almost three months.
Key chart levels to watch in March futures include the 10-day simple moving average around $4.27, just under Wednesday’s high, and the five-month intraday low at $4.1725 posted January 14.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price fell about 1.5 cents Wednesday to $3.8450. Wednesday’s average was about 37.25 cents below March futures, narrowing from 38 cents a week earlier.
Corn futures generated some corrective buying overnight with help from strength in wheat and the soy complex. Traders await demand-related updates, including the weekly ethanol production numbers from the Energy Information Administration later this morning and USDA’s weekly export sales report Friday. Both reports were delayed a day due to Monday’s holiday.
A week ago, the EIA reported U.S. ethanol production jumped to an all-time high, reflecting cheap corn and strong exports driving distillers’ margins. Ethanol production averaged 1.196 million barrels per day during the week ended January 9, up almost 9% from the previous week and topping the previous record, set a month ago, by 65,000 barrels.
Corn exports continue to run at a record pace but have recently showed signs of leveling off. On Tuesday, USDA reported corn export inspections totaling 1.484 million metric tons (58.4 million bushels) for the week ended January 15, down 1.3% from the previous week and down 3.8% from the same week in 2025. For the 2025-26 marketing year to date, shipments total 1.178 billion bushels, up 55% from the same period in 2024-25.
Last week’s bearish USDA numbers likely will limit rally potential. USDA raised its U.S. corn yield estimate to an average of 186.5 bushels per acre and boosted production to 17.021 billion bushels, both records. Read Farm Futures’ recap of the biggest market-moving numbers.
The soybean-to-corn price ratio, a long-followed gauge of farmer planting intentions, doesn’t appear to favor either crop so far in 2026, according to Purdue’s Michael Langemeier. It’s currently just under 2.4, slightly under historical averages. The ratio is worth following in the months ahead as markets shift and planting intentions come into sharper focus.
Soybeans boosted by demand optimism
March soybeans rose 3.5 cents to $10.68 overnight after earlier touching $10.70, the contract’s highest intraday price since January 12. A gain today would mark the contract’s fifth advance in the past six days.
Soybeans technicals continued to strengthen overnight with March futures potentially poised to close above the 200-day SMA (about $10.68) for the first time since December 26. On Wednesday, March futures closed above the 20-day SMA ($10.5825) for the first time since November 28. Prices are up over 30 cents from a 2 ½-month low of $10.3775 posted January 13. A push above this month’s intraday high at $10.7125 could propel further gains.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price rose about 12.25 cents Wednesday to $9.94. Wednesday’s average was about 70.5 cents below March futures, narrowing from 71.5 cents a week earlier.
March soybean meal rose $2.90 to $294.30 per ton after easing 20 cents Wednesday. March soyoil rose 5 points to 54.06 cents per pound after soaring 2.8% Wednesday to the market’s highest close since late August.
Soybeans extended the past week’s rally on reports more U.S.-China talks may be in the works, with optimism over higher biofuels mandates also lending support. Last week, reports circulated that the Trump administration plans to finalize biofuels blending quotas by March. The administration is weighing a proposed mandated biodiesel blending range of 5.2 billion to 5.6 billion gallons in 2026, a sharp increase over 3.35 billion gallons for 2025.
For soybean producers, higher blending targets could provide a much-needed demand boost to help offset lost export business.
“Soybeans and soybean oil were higher on Wednesday as fund managers hope the EPA will submit final guidelines for the biofuel program,” StoneX analyst Matt Zeller said in a note. “There is cautious optimism this will be favorable for biofuel feedstock demand.”
South American weather remains in market focus. Key growing areas of Brazil’s Mato Grosso received solid rains earlier this week and more rain is forecast. Southern Brazil and Argentina are expected to remain dry. A heat wave is expected in Argentina over the next week, potentially pushing temperatures into the low 100s Fahrenheit in some areas.
Traders continue to monitor export markets following reports China reached an initial White House soybean purchase target that followed a Beijing-Washington trade truce in October. While China has now booked enough U.S. soybean cargoes to meet the 12-MMT target, it’s unclear whether the country will buy much more, especially with Brazilian beans trading at lower prices.
“Brazil's supplies are much cheaper, and harvest is just starting in Brazil,” Zeller wrote. “Since U.S. soybeans are more expensive, China no longer has an incentive to buy more U.S. beans. To meet the USDA target, other non-China buyers will have to come in. This brings risk to meeting the USDA soybean export target for 2025-26.”
Wheat technicals eroding
March SRW wheat rose 3 cents to $5.1075 after shedding 2.5 cents Wednesday to $5.0775, the contract’s lowest close since January 2.
Wheat technicals have eroded this week with March SRW futures posting two consecutive closes below the 10- and 20-day SMAs ($5.1250 and $5.13). Key initial support is seen at last week’s intraday low at $5.07, and a push below that level could lead to a test of the contract low at $5.0150.
March HRW wheat rose 2.5 cents to $5.2225 after sinking 3.25 cents Wednesday. March spring wheat rose 3.75 cents to $5.6750.
Wheat futures continue to face an uphill climb amid abundant global supplies and signs U.S. exports are fading following a strong start to 2025-26. Potential supply disruptions from the Russia-Ukraine war remain a background concern.
Ukrainian grain traders union UGA said the country had exported only 292,000 MT of wheat in the first half of January, with cumulative 2025-26 exports down 20% from the same period in 2024-25 due to a combination of ongoing Russian attacks and softer demand.
Earlier this week, UkrAgroConsult said Ukraine’s recent ice storms and subzero temps could damage winter wheat and rapeseed crops in the country’s southern and eastern growing areas where snow cover is less. The firm noted that Russia’s winter wheat belt largely had adequate snow cover to avoid serious damage, however.
Elsewhere, European Union cumulative soft wheat exports since the start of the 2025-26 marketing year reached 11.83 MMT as of January 15, down 2% year-over-year.
Stock index futures firmer overnight as tariff concerns ease
Stock index futures climbed overnight as the market extended Wednesday’s gains after President Trump pulled back on threats to impose tariffs on European countries over Greenland.
Futures based on the S&P 500 index rose almost 0.5%, while Nasdaq-100 futures added over 0.7% and Dow futures gained over 0.2%. The U.S. dollar index fell less than 0.1%.
March WTI crude oil futures dropped 92 cents to $59.70 per barrel. Gold futures eased 0.2% to about $4,827 per ounce after hitting a record high the previous two days.
What else I’m reading at www.FarmFutures.com this morning:
- Do you have a management gap on your farm? Results from a recent survey illustrate seven actionable items to increase opportunities for financial success and improve odds of leading your farm into the next generation, consultant Mike Downey says.