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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.
What we’re watching
Soybean futures rallied Thursday following reports the Trump administration plans to finalize biofuels blending quotas by March, potentially setting the stage for higher production of biomass-based diesel. For soybean producers, higher blending targets could provide a much-needed demand boost to help offset lost export business.
Corn exports show signs of rebound
March corn futures rose 1.75 cents to $4.22 per bushel in late overnight trading after dropping 1.75 cents Thursday to $4.2025, back near five-month lows posted Tuesday. Futures are down almost 24 cents this week after ending last week at $4.4575.
Futures extended sideways consolidation overnight as the market continued to stabilize following Monday’s USDA-driven sell-off. A firm close today would bolster hopes the market has found at least a temporary bottom around the five-month low in March futures posted Tuesday at $4.1725. Holding that low in the week ahead will be key to building support.
Futures have dropped near oversold levels, hovering just above 30 on the Relative Strength Index, which may encourage corrective buying. Key downside levels to watch in March futures include $4.15 and the contract low at $4.10. Upside levels to watch include $4.25.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price fell about 1.5 cents Thursday to $3.8250. Thursday’s average was about 37.75 cents below March futures, narrowing slightly from 38.5 cents a week earlier.
Speculators sold heavily in the wake of Monday’s USDA releases and continued selling the past two days, much of which was likely adding new short positions. Funds have sold a net of about 72,000 corn futures contracts so far this week, based on StoneX estimates.
Corn futures gained support from an overnight rally in wheat prices, as well as signs export demand is bouncing back from a late-2025 dip. But Monday’s surprisingly bearish USDA reports likely will weigh on the market for the time being, limiting rally attempts. USDA unexpectedly hiked its estimate for the average U.S. corn yield to a record 186.5 bushels per acre and boosted 2025 production to 17.021 billion bushels, also a record.
Still catching up on Monday’s USDA data? Read Farm Futures’ recap of Monday’s biggest market-moving numbers.
Early Thursday, USDA reported net U.S. corn sales totaling 1.14 million metric tons (44.9 million bushels) during the week ended January 8, about triple the previous week’s sales but down 10% from the average for the previous four weeks. Sales came in at the upper half of trade expectations and were led by Mexico, at 265,800 MT.
Sales commitments for the 2025-26 marketing year through January 1 (including accumulated exports) totaled 2.049 billion bushels, up 29% from the same period in 2024-25.
While U.S. corn has held a price advantage on global markets in recent months, that’s starting to fade as Brazil’s values weaken with the country’s harvest approaching.
“Brazil is starting to encroach on the (U.S.) supremacy in the spot market with weakening basis,” StoneX analyst Bevan Everett said in a note Thursday. “The U.S. may have to resume a price war to reinvigorate exports.”
Elsewhere, Brazil’s National Supply Company, known as Conab, kept its estimate for the country’s overall 2025-26 corn production steady at 138.87 MMT (5.47 billion bushels). Argentina’s Rosario Grains Exchange raised its forecast for the country’s 2025-26 corn production by 1 MMT to a record 62 MMT, topping the previous record of 53.5 MMT set in 2023-24.
Farmers, like anyone else, can be targets of online scammers, who cost U.S. consumers $12.5 billion in 2024. Scammers “are becoming like a business right now,” said Emily McLeod of the Illinois Agricultural Association Credit Union. “We really have to know how to protect ourselves and protect our finances.” Prairie Farmer’s Ava Splear details six pointers to avoid getting scammed.
Soybeans supported by increased biofuels outlook
March soybeans fell 0.5 cent to $10.5250 overnight after jumping 10.5 cents Thursday to $10.53, up from a 2 ½-month low of $10.3775 posted Tuesday. Futures are still down from $10.6250 at the end of last week and poised for a fifth weekly decline in the past seven weeks.
Soybeans extended a post-USDA Monday rebound overnight and are poised for a third consecutive daily advance. Overnight, March futures pushed above the 10-day simple moving average, currently $10.5475. A close above that level and the 20-day SMA ($10.5825) could bolster hopes for a double-bottom that includes the $10.38 low hit January 2. But technicals remain weak, which may eventually lead to a test of the $10.30 area, 2 cents above the October low.
Funds bought about 15,500 soybean futures contracts Thursday, partially reversing sales totaling 46,000 contracts the first three days this week, based on StoneX estimates. Funds were also active buyers in soyoil futures Thursday, at nearly 30,000 contracts.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price climbed about 10.75 cents Thursday to $9.82. Thursday’s average was about 71 cents below March futures, narrowing from 73.25 cents a week earlier.
March soybean meal rose 50 cents to $289.70 per ton after shedding $2.70 Thursday to $289.20, the contract’s third decline in the past four days and a three-month closing low. March soyoil fell 15 points to 52.82 cents per pound after earlier rising to 53.48 cents, a four-month high.
Soybean futures jumped Thursday in the wake of reports the Trump administration plans to finalize biofuels blending quotas by March. Reuters reported the administration is weighing a proposed mandated biodiesel blending range of 5.2 billion to 5.6 billion gallons in 2026, which would mark a sharp increase over 3.35 billion gallons for 2025. The administration is also dropping a plan to penalize imports of renewable fuels and feedstocks.
Resurgent exports also supported soybean futures. Thursday’s weekly export sales report confirmed additional China purchases of U.S. soybeans, pushing the country closer to a 12-MMT initial White House target that followed last fall’s trade truce with the Trump Administration.
Net U.S. soybean sales during the week ended January 8 totaled 2.062 MMT (75.6 million bushels), more than double the previous week’s sales and up 54% from the four-week average. Sales surpassed the high end of expectations. China led buyers at 1.224 MMT, including 132,000 MT switched from “unknown destinations.”
Based on Thursday’s report, USDA-confirmed China purchases for 2025-26 now total about 8.12 MMT (298.3 million bushels), but analysts believe the actual figure is at least 10 MMT when factoring unreported sales. Early Thursday, USDA reported private exporter soybean sales of 204,000 MT to China for 2025-26 delivery.
Despite recent China demand, U.S. exports still lag last year’s levels. U.S. export commitments for 2025-26 to date (including accumulated exports) now total 1.126 billion bushels, down 25% from the same period last year. In its Supply and Demand report released Monday, USDA slashed its full-year export target to 1.575 billion bushels, down 16% from 2024-25 and a 13-year low.
Domestic soybean processors continued to run at a record pace in late 2025 as the industry sought to keep up with growing biofuels demand.
In a monthly update, the National Oilseed Processors Association said December soybean crushing totaled 224.991 million bushels, up 8.9% from the same month in 2024 and the second-highest monthly figure on record, next to October’s 227.65 million bushels. Soyoil stocks totaled 1.642 billion pounds as of December 31, up 33% year-over-year.
Elsewhere, Brazil’s Agroconsult raised its estimate for the country’s 2025-26 soybean crop by 4.1 MMT, or 2.3%, to 182.2 MMT (6.69 billion bushels), citing higher yield prospects. The firm also said there’s “room to increase” its forecast following an ongoing crop tour. Agroconsult also estimated Brazil’s 2026 soybean exports at 112 MMT, with 70% to 75% of that total potentially going to China.
Agroconsult’s forecast contrasts with an updated outlook from Brazil’s National Supply Company, known as Conab, released earlier this week. Conab lowered its estimate for the country’s 2026 soybean production by 0.6% to 176.12 MMT.
Wheat export sales remain uninspiring
March SRW wheat rose 5.75 cents to $5.1625 after slipping 2 cents Thursday to $5.1050, the contract’s fourth decline in the past five days. Futures are still down from $5.1725 at the end of last week after posting advances in two of the previous weeks.
Wheat technicals have firmed after March futures overnight pushed back above the 10- and 20-day SMAs ($5.1375 and $5.1325, respectively), fueling ideas that the contract low posted January 2 at $5.0150 may have marked a bottom.
March HRW wheat rose 7 cents to $5.2425 after dropping 5 cents Thursday to $5.1725, near a two-week closing low. March spring wheat rose 0.5 cent to $5.63 after ending Thursday at a four-week low.
Despite the overnight strength, wheat futures’ upside remains limited by stiff export competition and an abundant global supply outlook illustrated by Monday’s bearish USDA reports. U.S. wheat exports extended a recent slump into early 2026, based on USDA’s latest sales update.
“Wheat and corn, with their well supplied balance sheets are both trying to price in extra world demand,” Everett said.
USDA reported net U.S. wheat sales of 156,300 MT during the week ended January 8, up 32% from the previous week but down 21% from average for the previous four weeks. Sales were at the low end of trade expectations. “Unknown destinations” was cited as the top buyer, followed by the Philippines at 61,500 MT.
Exports remain up sharply from last year and on track to hit a five-year high, based on a USDA forecast. For 2025-26 to date, U.S. wheat sales commitments (including accumulated exports) totaled 744.8 million bushels, up almost 16% from the same period in 2024-25 and 83% of USDA’s full-year target of 900 million bushels.
Thursday also brought more reminders of the heavy supply outlook likely to weigh on grain supplies again this year. The International Grains Council raised its 2025-26 total global grain production estimate by 31 MMT, or 1.3%, to a record 2.461 billion MT. The council hiked its wheat production forecast 12 MT, or 1.4%, to 842 MMT, and boosted corn 1.2% to 1.313. billion MT.
In its Supply and Demand report Monday, USDA hiked estimated worldwide wheat supplies at the end of 2025-26 by 1.2% to 278.3 MMT (10.2 billion bushels), a five-year high. The increase reflects bigger crops in Argentina and Russia.
AI trade continues to buoy Wall Street
Stock index futures gained overnight as AI optimism buoyed technology stocks, which got an additional boost after the U.S. and Taiwan reached a trade agreement in which Taiwanese chip and tech companies will invest at least $250 billion in production capacity in the U.S.
Futures based on the S&P 500 index gained 0.2% and Nasdaq-100 futures added 0.5%, while Dow futures were up less than 0.1%. The U.S. dollar index eased 0.1% in a slight pullback from Thursday’s six-week high.
February WTI crude oil futures rose 78 cents to $59.97 per barrel amid ongoing concern over supply disruptions even as concerns eased over a potential U.S. strike on Iran. Gold futures fell 0.2% to about $4,615 per ounce, down slightly from Wednesday’s record high.
What else I’m reading at www.FarmFutures.com this morning:
- Use of technology and artificial intelligence is becoming more relevant on the farm, and one University of Missouri researcher shared how drones and robots can benefit the farmer.