According to USDA, growers intend to plant almost 1.39 million acres of sunflowers in 2026, up 8% from 2025. Using a trend yield, the initial estimate of 2026 U.S. sunflower production is pegged at 2.38 billion pounds, which would represent an increase of 3% from last year.
Most of the increase is anticipated in oil-type sunflowers, with intended acres at 1.29 million, up 9% from 2025. Based on intended acreage and using a trend yield, oil-type sunflower production is projected to increase to 2.21 billion pounds in 2026, up 4% from last year.
Oil-type seed stocks were higher at the beginning of March, up 48% from a year ago.
Increased stocks were expected by traders given last year’s acreage surge and increased production versus the 2024 crop, which was relatively small. The March seed stocks figure aligned closely to historic levels and was welcomed by crushers and bird food buyers. Non-oil sunflower acres are expected to be slightly lower than last year at around 91,500 acres.
What does this mean?
The production increase will allow for market share gains for sunflower products. Industry estimates have domestic sunflower crush increasing to 1.03 billion pounds. Domestic sunflower oil consumption will continue to rise, reaching 720 million pounds in 2026-27, with exports of sunflower oil predicted to be 75 million pounds.
Meal usage is expected to expand to 516 million pounds. Domestic usage and exports of confection in-shell seed and kernel are expected to remain steady at last year’s levels. Bird food demand is projected to increase slightly from the 2025-26 marketing year. Ending seed stocks are expected to move above the five-year average, but not to burdensome levels.
For 2026-27, global sunflower production is going to be a moving target, depending on what actually gets planted in Ukraine this year. The war in Ukraine has left much uncertainty of what seed availability will be like this year, and potentially in 2027 as well. Ukraine was one of the major producers and exporters of sunflower oil, accounting for 50% of global sunflower oil trade.
The events in Ukraine escalated an already tight vegetable oil market. This conflict between Ukraine and Russia bears watching, as it has significantly increased the uncertainty of the agricultural supply and demand conditions in the region and globally.
Now that the South American oilseed harvest is finished, the attention of the oilseed market will shift to U.S. crop conditions and production prospects in the months ahead. Weather and demand news will be the main price-determining factors across the sunflower-growing region.
New-crop sunflower seed prices should remain firm in the months ahead, unless there is some pressure from lower prices in the soybean market during the first part of the marketing year. This can change dramatically over the course of the next few months depending on the number of acres planted and yields achieved at harvest.
Your one-stop shop to get answers to your sunflower production questions and keep up with market news and prices is the National Sunflower Association website at sunflowernsa.com. Follow on X @NatlSunflower.