The Iowa farmland market came into the 2026 growing season with stable legs. For many months now, a limited supply of farms for sale has helped to maintain land prices on the farms that have been offered to the market.
But as we look forward through the summer, what factors may impact the direction of the farmland market in the second half of the year? I see three primary topics to watch:
1. 2026 crop prospects. Success or struggle in the current growing season will play a direct and significant role in the land market for the remainder of the year. Farmers in Iowa still buy 70% to 75% of row crop farms offered to the market, so whether they feel happy or nervous about crop prospects impacts their aggressiveness in buying additional land.
For the past two years, farmers in Iowa — and the rest of the Midwest — have “out-busheled” commodity price weakness. Will it happen again this year? From what we’re seeing at Hertz Farm Management, producer sentiment remains closely tied to in-season yield expectations and margins.
2. Geopolitics. Two variables are geopolitical, and they carry the names of China and Iran. China has been a demand driver in world commodity markets, especially soybeans, for many years. President Donald Trump made a historic visit to Beijing in mid-May, and it is believed that one of his objectives was to influence China’s purchase of U.S. agricultural products. If China more fully reengages to purchase U.S. products, it can swing the commodity markets — and influence farm-level profitability.
Similarly, the early 2026 conflict in Iran has influenced worldwide oil, fuel and fertilizer prices, among other things. At the farm level, this has caused an even greater cost-price squeeze for agricultural producers.
Many had their diesel and fertilizer booked for 2026 production, but how will things stack up going into late summer and fall?
3. Interest rate direction. Finally, the U.S. Senate recently confirmed Kevin Warsh as the new chairman for the Federal Reserve System. Warsh was nominated by Trump, and he came into the position with a perceived bent toward lowering short-term interest rates.
However, with the Iran conflict seemingly relighting the fuse on inflation in our economy, higher short-term rates seem more likely than lower rates. And we’ve already seen the bond market spike higher for long-term treasury that directly impact long-term mortgage rates. Higher interest rates are not generally positive for asset values.
All this to say, the world is not boring! The factors mentioned above are those to watch as summer arrives and matures. Fortunately for Iowa farmland owners, amid all the motion, the sales below reflect the stability I mentioned in my opening comments:
Sioux County. Southeast of Rock Valley, ± 84 acres recently sold at public auction for $26,600 per acre. The farm consisted of ± 84 tillable acres with a Corn Suitability Rating index of 91.3, and equaled $291 per CSR2 point on the tillable acres.
Floyd County. West of Floyd, ± 116 acres recently sold at public auction for $11,075 per acre. The farm consisted of ± 115 tillable acres with a CSR2 of 85.0, and equaled $131 per CSR2 point on the tillable acres.
Fayette County. Southwest of Westgate, ± 40 acres recently sold at public auction for $14,400 per acre. The farm consisted of ± 36 tillable acres with a CSR2 of 88.9, and equaled $180 per CSR2 point on the tillable acres.
Harrison County. South of Logan, ± 177 acres recently sold at public auction for $9,700 per acre. The farm consisted of ± 169 tillable acres with a CSR2 of 63.1, and equaled $161 per CSR2 point on the tillable acres.
Story County. East of Slater, ± 93 acres recently sold at public auction for $18,000 per acre. The farm consisted of ± 88 cropland acres with a CSR2 of 88.0, and equaled $216 per CSR2 point on the cropland acres.
Cedar County. South of Clarence, ± 73 acres recently sold for $16,350 per acre. The farm consisted of ± 72 tillable acres with a CSR2 of 87.7, and equaled $189 per CSR2 point on the tillable acres.
Fremont County. Southeast of Tabor, ± 197 acres recently sold at public auction for $10,000 per acre. The farm consisted of ± 181 tillable acres with an average CSR2 of 71.6, and equaled $152 per CSR2 point on the tillable acres.
Marion County. Off the northeast corner of Knoxville, ± 92 acres recently sold for $13,043 per acre. The farm consisted of ± 82 tillable acres with an average CSR2 of 75.6, and equaled $193 per CSR2 point on the tillable acres.
Lee County. West of Denmark, ± 34 acres recently sold at public auction for $9,500 per acre. The farm consisted of ± 28 tillable acres with a CSR2 of 48.2, and equaled $239 per CSR2 point on the tillable acres.