Trading headlines was never for the faint of heart. These days computers account for two-thirds or more of futures volume, so playing the news flow may not require even having a pulse.
With so many market-moving stories around, it may be best to leave the heaving lifting to automated systems anyway. Hoping any shiny new number will last may just be a bridge too far.
That’s true of updated World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates released June 11. Breakouts for corn and soybeans didn’t change much, but no matter — they were obsolete from the get-go. While the market waited for details of a Middle East truce, worries about a so-called “Super El Nino” tried to elbow their way on stage. Either or both could be a big deal — or a big bust.
Uncertainty and interest rates
Super El Nino wasn’t a fighter in cage matches at the White House. Rather, the tag describes warming of the equatorial Pacific forecast to be more intense than usual for these events. As ominous as that sounds, the data tell a different story. If anything, El Nino is associated with above-average yields in the U.S. “Super” conditions occurred five times since 1950: 1972, 1982-83, 1991-92, 1997-98, and 2015-16. Yields in 1983 and 1991 were poor for corn though soybeans were off a lot only in 1983. So “super” isn’t interchangeable with “suffer.”
Truce impacts are likewise hard to interpret. Open navigation through the Strait of Hormuz could lower both fuel and fertilizer prices, but it’s unlikely either market could drop in time to change 2026 production. Fears of acreage shifts in the Southern Hemisphere this fall or next year in northern countries might even wind up hurting prices if traders buckle up for expansion.
Still, the uncertainty is forcing officials to rethink positions. Fearing inflation, some countries are already raising interest rates as a safeguard. Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve weighs in at the end of its two-day meeting June 17 when new chairman Keven Warsh helms the central bank.
Forces for upside
Weather data is just as inconclusive. Some 75% of the U.S. experienced some type of drought last week, but crop ratings are still around average. Was this a ticking time bomb, or a dud? Crop Progress ratings put 67% of corn and 65% of soybeans in Good or Excellent condition, right on track with long-term averages since national reports began in 1986.
Vegetation Health Indexes were 15% below normal, which projected corn yields nearly 2% below expectations at 179.9 bushels per acre. Futures didn’t seem concerned: December 2026 closed the week at $4.4025, nearly 75 cents below my forecast selling range of $5.10 to $5.55.
Crop Progress and VHI still kept soybeans on track for good production, taking the top third of the price range for the 2026 crop to $12.50 to $13.50. My models added nearly $1.50 to the selling ranges if strong demand emerged from processors and exporters.
Much depends, as usual, on China, which could be swung by politics and economics. Cheaper Iranian crude could help Beijing manage a struggling economy. The World Bank downgraded China last week, seeing growth below the 5% target of the Communist Party. GDP growth and soybean imports move in tandem, suggesting strong U.S. exports aren’t assured.