On June 1, 2024, the wheat price in Pond Creek, Okla., was $6.69. During the 2009 through 2023 wheat harvest periods (June through August), the average Pond Creek price was
$5.85. The average price difference (range) from the lowest single harvest period price to the highest single harvest price was $1.83. The lowest single harvest price range was $0.78 (2013), and the highest range was $3.42 (2022).
Using the average price range of $1.83 (June through August 2024 Pond Creek, Okla.) wheat prices could get as low as $4.86 or as high as $8.52 ($6.69 ± $1.83). Given that between June 1 and June 17, 2024, Pond Creek wheat prices declined $1.03, $4.86 is probably more likely than $8.52.
The 2024/25 wheat marketing-year stocks-to-use ratios indicate the average June 2024 through August 2024 wheat price in Pond Creek will be near the $5.85 average harvest price. At this writing, wheat may be sold in Pond Creek for $5.65. Perryton, Texas, wheat prices are $0.10 less than Pond Creek. Altus, Okla.’s price is $0.35 less, and Weatherford, Okla. (I-40), is $0.25 less than Pond Creek’s price.
Average June, July, August price
Another historical price fact is that the average June price was $5.88, the average July price was $5.84, and the average August price was $5.83. On average, the September price was $0.25 cents less than the average June through August prices. (All prices were adjusted for $0.05 per month storage and interest costs.) In only four years (2010, 2012, 2020, and 2021) was the highest monthly average price higher than a June, July, or August price.
On average, by July 1, 42% of the world’s marketing-year wheat has been harvested. Of this 42%, the majority is not for export. Most mof the the world's exported wheat is harvested in July, August and September. Argentina and Australian wheat is harvested in October, November and December.
The June WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) report estimated the 2024/25 world wheat stocks-to-use ratio to be 32% compared to a five-year average of 34%. The United States’ wheat stocks-to-use ratio was projected to be 39% compared to a five-year average of 41%. Russia’s stocks-to-use ratio was projected to be 9% compared to an average of 15%.
The stocks-to-use ratios are all slightly below average. This should imply an average to slightly above average 2024/25 marketing-year average price. A caveat is that the stocks-to-use ratios are estimates of what the actual stocks-to-use ratios will be on May 31, 2025.
World 2024/25 marketing-year wheat production is estimated to be 29.06 billion bushels. Wheat use is projected to be 29.32 billion bushels. There is a degree of error around each estimate, and that error will determine whether actual wheat prices are above or below average.
In the June WASDE report, the U.S. 2024/25 marketing-year average price was projected to be $6.50. The May WASDE estimated the 2024/25 average price to be $6. The 15-year (2009-2023) average annual U.S. wheat price is $6.01.
What will wheat prices do?
The bottom line is that no one knows whether wheat prices will go up or down. What we know is that during the 2009 through 2023 wheat marketing years, Oklahoma and Texas Panhandle wheat prices averaged about $5.85 during harvest and then declined during fall and winter.
We also know that the average difference between the lowest harvest price and the highest harvest price was $1.83. The highest price since June 1, 2024, has been $6.69, implying a potential average harvest price low of $4.86. The lowest price since June 1 was $5.66, implying a top average of $7.49. The most likely average price is expected to be near $5.85.