In a recent USDA supply and demand report, global sunflower production for marketing year 2025-26 was estimated at 52.06 million metric tons, which is about equal to the drought-reduced production in 2024-25. Lower production in the European Union, Turkey and Ukraine is the leading factor for a sluggish production outlook.
The 2025-26 global sunflower crush is estimated to reach 47.54 MMT, which is slightly lower than last marketing year. Global sunflower oil production is expected to be about equal to last marketing year at 20.05 MMT.
With the lower supply, global oil exports are expected to decrease by 6% to 12.82 MMT in 2025-26. Ending global sunflower oil stocks are projected to decline by 15% to 2.24 MMT by the end of September. This is the lowest level in many years.
Earlier this year, USDA released its estimate for 2025 U.S. sunflower production. Sunflower production was forecast to recover from 2024-25 to 2.3 billion pounds on higher acreage and yields. Sunflower yields were forecast at 1,863 pounds per acre, up 12% from 2024-25.
Dakotas help drive acres
The harvested acreage for sunflowers was estimated to be higher for North and South Dakota, which account for about 80% of total sunflower acreage combined. Total U.S. oil-type sunflower production is estimated at 2.1 billion pounds, and non-oil sunflower production is projected to be 200 million pounds.
USDA expects the higher total seed supply to result in increased crush, exports, non-oil-type use and residual. Sunflower crush is expected to be 32% higher than 2024-25 at about 408,000 MT.
Ending stocks are expected to rebound to 337 million pounds, from last year’s low level of 209 million pounds.
New-crop prices remain competitive, while the battle for acres continues. All sunflower demand sectors are offering act of God contracts for fall delivery. These “fail safe” contracts have become popular with farmers throughout the production region, providing an opportunity to lock in attractive prices now for fall delivery and remove that all-important factor of “price risk” in these very volatile times.
Something else to consider is the oil premiums that crush plants pay on high-oleic sunflower contracts. Sunflower is the only oilseed that pays premiums for oil content above 40%. Considering oil premiums that are offered at the crush plants on oil content above 40% at a rate of 2% price premium for each 1% of oil above 40%, this pushes a contract with 45% oil content gross return 10% higher per cwt, and would raise the value of a $22.60 base contract to $24.85 per cwt.
The main market mover from April onward will be USDA's March Prospective Plantings report. Trade expectations about planted acreage will likely be in a wide range before the report is released. After the release, North American weather conditions and 2026 U.S. oilseed crop prospects will progressively become more important factors in price. To keep up with price movement, go to sunflowernsa.com or follow on X @NatlSunflower.