With harvest season drawing to a close, it’s now time to plan for 2025 inputs, meet with accountants, and engage with lenders to secure stable footing for the new season. With input costs remaining volatile, taking advantage of off-season pricing opportunities could make a substantial difference to next year’s bottom line.
Preparing a post-harvest marketing plan is more critical than ever as we navigate these uncertain times.
- With lower option volatility, now may be a good opportunity to secure puts on unsold grain or consider forward sales to lock in favorable board carries.
- By maintaining flexibility with call options into the spring or summer, producers can protect against downside risks while remaining positioned to capitalize if the market rallies.
Despite these uncertainties, demand for U.S. corn has shown resilience, with sales climbing as buyers eye U.S. competitiveness. This demand will be key as the Southern Hemisphere’s growing season unfolds, which could shape the global market’s direction in the coming months.
Grain producers face a pivotal period in shaping their marketing strategy for the upcoming year.
- The outcome of the U.S. presidential election will ignite discussion on the new administration’s influence on trade policies, especially with China. In recent years, evolving trade relationships and policies have created a dynamic environment for U.S. agriculture, underscoring the importance of having flexible but proactive marketing strategies.
- A new farm bill remains in limbo, and its eventual framework could bring significant changes to the industry.
- USDA on Thursday, Nov. 7, will release balance sheets for 2025 and beyond. This is their first unofficial look at the 2025-26 crop year for corn and beans. USDA will update the numbers in February when the entire Baseline Projections are released.
- This week also brings the much-anticipated November WASDE report, with harvest progress for corn at 91% and soybeans at 94%—well ahead of the average pace in previous years. This faster harvest may lend greater accuracy to this month’s WASDE report.
Is 2024 a record season?
Many regions report strong yields, prompting speculation of a record season. Reviewing past data, the USDA has adjusted corn yield estimates downward in four of the last 10 Novembers. USDA made upward revisions in six of those years. Soybeans have seen yield changes, too, with adjustments balanced across increases, decreases and unchanged figures over the decade.
- The largest corn yield revisions ranged from a 2.6 bpa decrease in 2020 to a 3.6 bpa increase in 2017.
- Soybean yield changes have been smaller, with a maximum 1.1 bpa increase in 2015 and 2016 and a 1.2 bpa drop in 2020.
Market reactions to these yield adjustments can be unpredictable, and past November WASDE reports have triggered varied responses in both corn and soybean prices. To help anticipate potential price movements, a review of November report-day price changes over the last 10 years is provided below.
The holiday rush will only compound the time pressures faced by producers, so having a strategy in place now is essential. By setting target prices and engaging the right market tools, you can stay prepared to act on market rallies without scrambling to make decisions later. With a structured plan, you won’t miss out on opportunities due to year-end demands.
Taking time to invest in these planning efforts will not only prepare you for 2025 but also offer peace of mind. A strong, well-thought-out marketing plan allows you to adapt to market swings while keeping your operation on track. So, let’s take these final weeks of the year to lay the groundwork for success and be ready for whatever the next season may bring.
A disciplined approach now can help leverage market dynamics and position operations for a profitable start to 2025.
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