It’s no secret that Brazil is the largest producer of soybeans in the world. Their rate of soybean production expansion over the past decade has been remarkable.
Brazil grows 39% of the world’s soybeans, according to USDA.
What’s happened
The Brazilian soybean production number for the 2024-25 growing season is expected to be at 169 million metric tons. The U.S. by comparison is expected to grow 124.7 MMT of soybeans, with Argentina coming in third at 51.0 million metric tons.
Brazil is also the largest exporter of soybeans with export destinations primarily to China and Southeast Asia. Below is a map which shows the major global producers of soybeans, along with the major global exporters of soybeans.
Brazil is pegged to export 105 MMT of soybeans in 2024-25. Notice this is double the amount that the United States is expected to export.
From a marketing perspective
The potential for a behemoth Brazilian soybean crop is likely to keep the price of soybean futures in check for now. The perception is that global supply will be large, and that could potentially weigh on prices in the short term.
Yet, it is still early in Brazil’s growing season. Brazil is approximately just over the halfway mark with planting their soybean crop as of this writing. Plenty of growing season and potential weather worries are still to come.
Below is a production map of the major soybean growing areas within Brazil. This is helpful to visualize where to “weather watch” in the upcoming months as the soybean crop starts to grow in Brazil.
Brazil’s largest soybean growing area is Mato Grosso. It is said that Mato Grosso is nearly the equivalent size of Illinois, Indiana and Iowa combined. According to USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service, Mato Grosso is expected to account for 28% of Brazil soybean production. Parana is expected to grow 13% of total production. Goias and Rio Grande do Sul follow, each with 11% total production. Mato Grosso do Sul accounts for 9% of total production for Brazil soybeans.
With ample supplies expected globally, and the soybean crop for the most part being planted in a timely manner, the soybean market currently offers little weather risk premium regarding the Brazil crop.
That could change. Well, the perception of a potential weather threat in South America can sometimes lift soybean futures prices during late December and January. So late December and January is the time to watch weather in Brazil.
Why should you care?
Should this price rally occur, due to a weather scare in Brazil, it is often a wonderful opportunity for U.S. farmers to focus on cash sales for any soybean supplies in bins at home, or a potential opportunity to begin forward contracting new crop sales.
Prepare yourself
While the perception is for a large supply of Brazilian soybeans to be grown for the 2024-25 crop year, one never knows when Mother Nature has a trick up her sleeve. Weather watching in the coming weeks and months for the Brazil soybean crop will be important.
Market volatility can come and go quickly. Grain marketing opportunities can also come and go quickly. Be ready to act.
Reach Naomi Blohm at 800-334-9779, on X: @naomiblohm, and at naomi@totalfarmmarketing.com.
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