Global sunflower production in 2026-27 is forecast to increase 12% from the previous year to 62.06 million metric tons following two years of below-average yields driven by dry weather conditions.
USDA expects increased production in the U.S., the European Union, Argentina, Russia, Ukraine and Turkey. Ukraine’s sunflower production is forecast to recover moderately from 2025-26 as farmers shift planted area from grain in favor of oilseeds; however, the crop will remain significantly lower than pre-conflict levels.
Russia is expected to remain the world’s largest producer, followed by Ukraine and the EU. Seed exports are forecast to remain relatively flat at 3.54 MMT this year, as Russia and Ukraine resume crushing a larger portion of their crop domestically.
Global sunflower seed stocks at the end of 2026-27 are forecast at 3.95 MMT, up 38% from the previous year.
What’s next?
With the additional seed supply, global crush is expected to increase by 11% from 2025-26 to 55.6 MMT. Sunflower oil production for 2026-27 is forecast to increase by 2.4 MMT to 23.5 MMT, on higher sunflower crush in the U.S., the EU, Argentina, Ukraine, Russia and Turkey.
Global sunflower oil consumption is projected to grow 12% to 21.7 MMT, driven by the larger crush and competitive prices. Sunflower oil exports are expected to increase by 16% from last year. India, China and Turkey sunflower oil imports are anticipated to see the largest increases.
With global demand growth keeping up with global supply, global sunflower oil ending stocks for 2026-27 are forecast to increase slightly from 2025-26 levels.
2026 U.S. sunflower production is still undetermined and will not be known until this fall. Initial industry estimates pegged 2026 U.S. sunflower production at 2.38 billion pounds, which would represent an increase of 4% from last year. The higher production is based on an increase in planted area from 1.29 million to 1.39 million acres, and trend yields for oil type and confection sunflowers.
USDA reported March 1 seed stocks for all sunflower seed types at 899 million pounds, up 41% from last year. The March seed stocks figure aligned closely to historic levels and was welcomed by crushers and bird food buyers.
Using this stocks figure and a 2026 production increase will allow for market share gains for sunflower products. It also sets up a very positive price trend through 2026-27.
Take these figures with a grain of salt, as they are the first estimate for the next marketing year. Much of the global sunflower crop is just being harvested and is a long way away from being in the bin.
These figures can change dramatically over the course of the next few months depending on weather conditions this summer and fall. Current demand should keep old-crop prices firm, and there is a strong likelihood that price premiums will be in place to encourage growers to desiccate and harvest early.
Bird food demand also should start to heat up this month. Overall, new-crop price direction will be driven by demand news and eventual 2026 crop production.
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