In 1990, the band Scorpions released the song “Winds of Change.” While the lyrics aren't exactly the most transparent (Who really knows what "the wind of change" smells like?), many believe it’s a metaphor for the collapse of the USSR and the hopeful idea that freedom and opportunity would follow. Now, before you think I’m about to draw some wild parallels between the fall of the Soviet Union and the new U.S. administration, let me stop you: I’m not. That would be, well, a little dramatic.
But one thing is for sure: change happens fast. And sometimes, it’s like switching from a calm breeze to a full-on tornado.
Take, for instance, the corn market over the last 12 months. In February of last year, speakers at USDA’s Outlook Forum projected the 2024-25 corn carryout would reach an overwhelming 2.53 billion bushels with a trendline yield. That number was enough to make even the most seasoned corn farmers take a deep breath—and not in the “fresh air” way.
This carryout was daunting. Yet by mid-August, it seemed not only possible but quite plausible. All the private crop tours found the same thing: a remarkably healthy and large crop. We all watched as the new crop corn price plummeted to $3.85 and wondered if we’d ever find a bottom.
Then—cue dramatic music—here we are, less than five months later, and corn futures have surged by $1-plus, with 30 cents of that coming from the Jan. 12 USDA report alone! A remarkably speedy change, to say the least. Let’s not dwell on how much USDA’s 3.8-bushel “oops” may have cost your farm. You’ve probably already calculated that in your head while looking at your financial statements, and wondering which Congressperson you should call.
Looking ahead, we’re also facing more potential “Winds of Change” — namely, the President and his—let’s call it enthusiastic—stance on trade. Many are worried about another trade war with China, or other countries that depend on U.S. ag goods (not to mention that trade war déjà vu with which we’re all familiar). But instead of jumping straight to "The sky is falling!," let’s think about what the market might do if a trade war happens. And what if we go the Phase 1 route again, with a successful negotiation? Between the "Trade War" years and the "Phase 1" years, nearby corn prices fluctuated by over $4.50, and beans had a range over $8.50. That’s quite a rollercoaster of potential profits or, um, oops moments.
The point is: You can manage these decisions so you’re not betting everything on black or red. You can balance the uncertainty, just like managing your poker hand with a bit of strategy.
So, take a deep breath, explore your options, and find ways to navigate the unpredictable "Winds of Change" that are blowing your way. Because if there’s one thing we can be sure of in this ever-shifting market, it’s that more change is coming — and possibly with a side of confusion.
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