At the 101st Annual Agricultural Outlook Forum, held February 27-28, 2025, the USDA projected that corn, sorghum, and wheat prices would be slightly lower than the 2024/25 marketing year prices and that soymeal prices would remain unchanged (Table 1). Fertilizer, fuel and oil, and pesticides prices are projected to be lower than 2024 prices (Carrie Litkowski, Agricultural Outlook Forum 2025, USDA/ERS).
Fertilizer costs were projected to be 11% lower than last year. Fuel and oil prices are projected to be 2% less than last year and pesticides are projected to be 6% lower.
On February 21, 2025, Oklahoma fertilizer prices per ton were Urea $500 ($535 in 2024), Potash $472 ($516 in 2024), and MAP $786 ($840 in 2024) (USDA/AMS, Oklahoma Production Cost Report). In late February, Oklahoma’s average farm diesel price was $2.72 compared to $3.20 in February 2024.
The USDA’s projected U.S. supply and demand situation for wheat indicated that planted acres would increase from 46.1 million acres to 47 million acres. Production was projected to be 1.926 billion bushels (Bb) compared to 1.971 Bb in 2024. Wheat exports were projected to be unchanged and ending stocks were projected to increase from 794 million bushels (Mb) to 826 Mb.
The U.S. wheat stocks to use ratio (ending stocks divided by total use) is projected to increase from 39.6% to 41.2%. The average 2009/10 through 2024/25 wheat marketing stocks to use ratio is 41%.
At the 2025 USDA Outlook Forum, the 2025/26 wheat marketing year average price was projected to be $5.50 compared to $5.55 for 2024/25 and a 2009/10 through 2024/25 average U.S. price of $5.99. Oklahoma’s 2009/10 through 2023/24 average price was $5.79 and Texas’ average price was $5.85 (Table 1).
Table 1. USDA 2025 Agricultural Outlook Forum projected prices and 2009/10 through 2023/24 historical Oklahoma Texas prices.
U.S. corn planted acres are projected to increase from 90.6 million acres in 2024 to 94 million acres in 2025. Corn production is projected to increase from 14.9 Bb to 15.6 Bb. Ending stocks are projected to increase from 1.540 Bb to 1.965 Bb. The corn stocks to use ratio is projected to increase from 10.2% to 12.9%. The 2009/10 through 2024/25 average U.S. corn stocks to use ratio is 11.9%
The 2025/26 corn marketing year average price is projected to decline from $4.35 in 2024/25 to $4.20 in 2025/26. The 2009/10 through 2024/25 U.S average corn price was $4.59. The average 2009/10 through 2024/25 Texas corn price was $5.05 and the average Oklahoma price was $4.89.
The U.S. 2025/26 sorghum stocks to use ratio is projected to be 11.4% compared to 9.2% for the 2024/25 marketing year. The 2009/10 through 2024/25 marketing years average sorghum stocks to use ratio was 8.8%.
2024/25 U.S. sorghum prices are projected to average $4 compared to $4.25 during the 2024/25 marketing year. The 2009/10 through 2024/25 average sorghum marketing year price is $4.46.
The 2009/10 through 2023/24 average annual sorghum price in Texas was $4.52 and the average Oklahoma sorghum price was $4.49.
The USDA 2025 Agricultural Outlook Forum projections are calculated using computer models and historical data. The first survey (WASDE) supply and demand estimates for the 2025/26 crop marketing year will be released May 12, 2025.
Current projections imply slightly lower corn, wheat, and sorghum prices and lower production costs for fertilizer, fuel and oil and pesticides.