Analysts pencil in forecasts for a reason: Ink is a lot harder to erase. And crop estimates are highly likely to change, especially during the growing season when a few days of heat or drought can bring dramatic revisions to the outlook.
But don’t expect USDA’s July 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates to include wholesale upheaval. While the agency may juggle its forecasts to align with June 30 acreage and grain stocks data, shifts should be minor, while the weather clock ticks down.
One key WASDE factor that’s unlikely to change for at least another month: 2026 yield estimates, which the June report held over from May at 183 bushels per acre corn and 53 bpa soybeans, based on statistical trends. It’s not that USDA never modifies these in June. But changes typically don’t come this early unless growing conditions are already deteriorating sharply.
The best measure of early stress is the Palmer Z Index, due for an update July 9. Through May this metric was a little dry, but not abnormally so. The percentage of fields experiencing drought was only 1% higher than one year ago.
Temperatures and rainfall forecasts for the rest of the growing season call for easing stress, with improvements coming soon. Watch Crop Progress ratings and Vegetation Health Index maps for clues. Both corn and soybean conditions were slightly above average in the most recent June Progress reports, while VHI averages were a little below normal. But none of these readings show any signs of significant yield reductions yet that would impact the supply side of the balance sheet.
Grain demand changes?
Revisions to demand appear more likely, but these are not expected to be major either. One indication for this comes from Grain Stocks. Corn usage, or “disappearance” as it’s called, was up 6.8% from the previous year during the March-May quarter, but that was 2% less than the increase for the entire 2025-26 crop predicted in the June WASDE. With exports and buying by ethanol plants reported weekly, the wild card for corn demand tends to be feed usage, which could be slightly higher, trimming estimated stocks by 50 million bushels or so in the Aug. 31 report.
Soybean disappearance during the March-May quarter was around 18% more than the previous year, but the June WASDE predicted total year-over-year usage would fall 3.4%. I expect this jump ball to go to the bears, suggesting projected ending stocks could be raised Aug. 31.
But corn and soybeans don’t trade in a vacuum. Traders should continue to look over their shoulders for overlap from financial markets and international politics. Biofuels could feel fallout from Middle East energy shipments and China should set the tone for soybeans. Post-holiday peace on Wall Street could convince speculators it’s safe to tread into commodities as they seek the next hot market. That enthusiasm may be muted if interest rates offer safer returns: Why bother jumping on a bucking bronco when you can clip coupons on government bonds and earn 5% for your trouble?
Who has money?
Big IPOs and bond issuances from AI darlings could also suck capital out of the market, making corn and soybeans look like even more of a gamble. My models put the average nearby futures price for 2026 crop corn at $4.10, with a top-third selling range of $4.55 to $4.90. July 2027 futures fought to hold $4.70 last week, so make sure you can afford to bypass sales if the market breaks down.
New crop soybeans could offer less opportunity for now. My model puts the average 2026 crop nearby futures average at $12.30, with a top third of the selling range at $13.40 to $14.40, July 2027. We haven’t seen those levels for around three years, which means prices are either ready to rally – or ready to stick a fork into.
