The market seemed to have higher corn acres built into futures prices, according to trading in the wake of Monday’s Prospective Plantings Report from USDA.
Despite “somewhat of a negative report,” Iowa farmer Matthew Kruse said, “We're actually trading up higher. … We bounced off our lows in corn and I think a lot of that has to do with just a lot of it was priced into the market.”
In the wake of USDA forecasting 2025 corn plantings on 95.3 million acres, which is 4.73 million acres more than 2024, the answer to one more question remains: Did the trade also build in a 200,000-million-bushel drop in exports? Kruse, who also is president of Commstock Investments, wondered out loud Monday afternoon.
“We can easily tack on 200 million bushels to our ending stocks just by cutting exports,” Kruse said. “And so, we'll have to see what happens on Liberation Day,” which is what President Trump is calling April 2, the day he plans to implement wide-ranging tariffs. The general expectation is that if the tariffs are enacted, export demand will falter – at least temporarily.
“We’re increasing our corn acres and we're increasing our production. USDA is projecting a record crop for next season,” Kruse noted. “The biggest outlier obviously is the tariffs and what's going to happen with exports.”
Diminished export demand adds to supply, with Commstock now estimating 2.18 billion bushels in ending stocks.
No surprises from USDA
Other crops noted in the report – wheat, cotton, soybeans – came in at or below expected numbers. The Quarterly Stocks report, released at the same time, was similar.
Kruse offers his post-reports analysis in this video.