Since we started keeping records on corn yields, the U.S. trendline yield has continually crept higher.
A lot of factors play into the higher trendline yield but the biggest reason is the advancement of seed genetics. In the last 30 years, only one is marked with a year-over-year decrease in average yield of more than 20 bu/a. The upward trend continues to stay strong, but is it running out of steam?
When you look at our corn yields from 2014 until now, our lowest national corn yield in the U.S. was 167.5 bu/a. That was the year we had 19.5 million acres of prevent plant and it was a markedly wet growing season.
In that same time frame, you will notice a couple of things.
- First, our above trendline yields seem to be plateauing to the upside. Last year we enjoyed highly productive growing conditions across the heart of the Corn Belt, and we still could not get U.S. corn yields above 180 bu/a. In fact, we saw record corn yields in Iowa and Illinois. Yes, record corn yield landed at 179.3 bu/a. But we started out the year with a trendline yield estimate of 181 bu/a. With the positive growing conditions we had, USDA in October 2024 estimated our corn yield as high as 183.8 bu/a.
- The second thing you will notice, the yields from low to high since 2014 are getting tighter and tighter. It is getting tougher to have a crop disaster in the U.S. Therefore, we may not break out to the upside on these yields but perhaps seed genetics are helping to prevent major crop disasters, and the low end the yields are simply getting higher.
So, where do we go from here? This year the U.S. is projected to plant 95.3 million corn acres, which is up 4.7 million acres from 2024. The increase in acres come from more corn-on-corn rotation and an increase in acres in the “fringe” areas like the Dakotas. Therefore, it will be tougher for the U.S. to achieve a record yield above 180 bu/a.
The demand for U.S. corn the past two years has been between 15 and 15.2 billion bushels. We have only grown three corn crops of 15-plus billion bushels. Odds, based on the planted acres expectation, suggest we will grow our fourth 15-plus billion-bushel corn crop. However, if our trendline yields stay below 180 bu/a, the U.S. will need to annually plant 92-plus million corn acres and expect good weather to meet the current demand.
Please give me a call directly to discuss further at 605-657-1978. To talk to any of the hedging strategists with the AgMarket.Net team, call 844-4AG-MRKT.
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