The July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report from USDA, out Friday morning, didn’t hold a lot of surprising data points for traders to digest but nonetheless teed up a bullish price environment as they can now more fully pivot to weather trends unfolding later this month. Corn and soybean prices tracked 0.5% to 0.75% higher immediately following the report’s release. Winter wheat prices fared even better, with several contracts jumping more than 3.5% higher.
Corn
USDA trimmed 2026-27 corn beginning stocks by 125 million bushels to 2.0 billion, which is reflective of an increase in feed and residual use partly offset by reductions in corn used for ethanol. Yield estimates held steady, at 183.0 bushels per acre, with the agency assuming total production will reach 16.0 billion bushels this season. The season-average farm price remains unchanged, at $4.40 per bushel.
In South America, 2025-26 corn production potential is on the rise, according to USDA. In Argentina, it rose to 2.480 billion bushels, which was well above the average trade guess of 2.424 billion. Brazilian production estimates held steady, meantime, at 5.432 billion bushels.
World ending stocks for 2026-27 made notable declines, from 281.22 million metric tons in June down to 275.26 MMT. That was also well below the average trade guess of 278.85 MMT.
Soybean
USDA raised its soybean production estimates to 4.475 billion bushels (an increase of 40 million bushels) based on a higher harvested area of 84.4 million acres. That’s up 700,000 acres from the agency’s June estimates. Ending stocks were lower than the trade expected, at 310 million bushels. The season-average farm price held steady, at $11.40 per bushel.
USDA made no changes to its South American production estimates. That leaves Argentina at 1.837 billion bushels and Brazil at 6.614 billion bushels. Global ending stocks eased slightly lower, from 124.88 MMT in June down to 124.17 MMT. Analysts were expecting a modest increase, in contrast, with an average trade guess of 125.17 MMT.
Wheat
USDA expects the 2026-27 wheat crop to have the lowest production since 1970-71, with 1.536 billion bushels. That was still higher than the average trade guess of 1.525 billion bushels, with individual analyst estimates ranging between 1.498 billion and 1.568 billion bushels. Projected ending stocks faded 22 million bushels lower to 722 million, which is 22% below year-ago levels. The season-average farm price remained unchanged, at $6.00 per bushel – well above year-ago levels of $5.06 per bushel.
Global ending stocks declined from 275.42 MMT in June down to 272.84 MMT. That was also below the average trade guess of 273.17 MMT and moderately lower than year-ago volumes of 279.04 MMT.