The USDA released the first official supply and demand estimates for the 2025/26 wheat, corn, and sorghum marketing years. Three numbers may be used to summarize the 2025/26 WASDE estimates. The average marketing year U.S. wheat price is projected to be $5.30 (Table 1), while the average corn price is estimated to be $4.35 (Table 2) and sorghum, $4.15.
Table 1. 2025/26 wheat marketing year projections and historical prices and stock-to-use ratios. | |||
|---|---|---|---|
2009-24 | 2025/26 | 2024/25 | |
Stocks-to-Use | |||
U.S. | 41.1% | 47.0% | 42.5% |
World | 33.5% | 33.0% | 33.0% |
Price | |||
U.S. | $5.99 | $5.30 | $5.50 |
Oklahoma | $5.85 | $5.25 | |
Texas | $5.76 | $5.13 | |
Pond Creek | $5.80 | $4.58 | $5.35 |
Source: USDA and CoMark Equity Alliance. 2025/26 Pond Creek projected price is the harvest contract price on May 12, 2025. | |||
These 2025/26 marketing year projected prices are below the average prices of the previous 16 marketing years. The 2009/10 through 2024/25 marketing year average U.S. wheat price was $5.99. The average U.S. corn price was $4.59. The average sorghum price was $4.45.
On May 12, 2025, wheat could have been contracted at $4.58 for harvest delivery in Pond Creek, Okla., for $4.38 in Perryton, Texas, and for $4.33 in Weatherford, Okla.
Corn could be contracted at $4.45 for harvest delivery in Pond Creek, $4.70 in Perryton, and $4.15 in Weatherford.
Sorghum could have been contracted at $3.85 for harvest delivery in Pond Creek, $4 in Perryton, and $3.75 in Weatherford.
Wheat prices are impacted by WASDE’s projected 47% 2025/26 marketing year U.S. stocks-to-use (STU) ratio and an anticipated 33% world wheat STU ratio. The 16-year average U.S. STU ratio was 41% and the world’s average STU ratio was 33.5%. The above-average U.S. STU ratio supports below-average U.S. wheat prices.
The 2024/25 U.S. marketing year average wheat price was $5.50, and the STU ratio was 43%. These numbers also support the below-average wheat price prediction for the 2025/2026 marketing year.
Table 2. 2025/26 Corn marketing year projections and historical prices and stock-to-use ratios. | |||
|---|---|---|---|
2009-24 | 2025/26 | 2024/25 | |
Stocks-to-Use | |||
U.S. | 12% | 14% | 11% |
World | 24% | 22% | 23% |
Price | |||
U.S. | $4.59 | $4.20 | $4.35 |
Oklahoma | $4.89 | $4.45 | $5.02 |
Texas | $5.05 | $4.70 | $5.30 |
Source: USDA and CoMark Equity Alliance. 2025/26 Oklahoma and Texas projected prices are the Harvest contract prices for Pond Creek, Oklahoma and Perryton, Texas on May 12, 2025. | |||
The U.S. corn STU ratio is projected to increase from 11% in 2024/25 to 14% in the 2025/2026 marketing year. The 2009/10 through 2024/25 average U.S. corn STU ratio was 11.5%. The higher U.S. corn STU ratios support the below-average corn price projection.
The 2025/26 marketing year corn price is estimated to be $4.20 compared to $4.35 in 2024/25. The 2009/10 through 2024/25 average corn price was $4.59.
The world’s projected corn STU ratio does not support below-average corn prices. The 2025/26 world STU ratio for corn is projected to be 21.8% compared to 23% in 2024/25 and a 16-year average of 24.3%.
The May WASDE report provides a starting point for prices in the 2025/26 marketing year. The one thing known for certain is that the numbers will change. As production and use estimates change, prices will change.
At this writing, the WASDE numbers are the best estimate of 2025/26 marketing year prices, and these prices are projected to be below average.