Grain markets are like abstract paintings. Different viewers can interpret the weird shapes and squiggles in dramatically divergent ways.
So it is with 2026 crops. My models suggest current conditions could mean corn yields ranging from 176.2 to 194.8 bushels per acre, a swing of more than 10%. Soybeans could vary less, from 51.9 to 53.8 bpa, a range of just 4%, but that still could spell the difference between boom and bust.
Different projections result from the statistical procedures used, as well as the source of the data they use. Forecasts based on five years of data may be substantially different from those going back 40 years or more, while weekly Crop Progress ratings may vary materially from Vegetation Health Index maps. And any estimate must be compared to official projections published monthly as part of USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.
As I suggested would be the case, the July 10 WASDE made no changes to its assumed 2026 yields, keeping them at 183 bpa corn and 53 bpa soybeans. The next monthly report on Aug. 12 could change all that, since it’s the agency’s first data set for 2026 based on surveys of farmers and their fields.
Price hinges on yield
There’s a name for the dispersion in yield guesses: tail risk. Averages, which are at the center of price curves, may be a lot different from either end — the tails — and it’s these extremes to be wary of as the countdown to real harvest results approaches.
The difference in price expectations is significant. A corn yield of 176.2 bpa could mean average futures prices of $4.45, with a selling range of $5.05 to $5.45. At the opposite end of the spectrum, a 194.8 yield could punish futures to an average of $3.40 with a selling range from $3.65 to $3.80.
The spread between soybean outcomes is much less — selling ranges from $13 to $14 and $13.50 to $14.50.
If USDA’s new crop yield estimates made no changes, old crop 2025-26 ending stocks were in line for some shuffling, spotlighting uncertainty over demand. Old crop corn carryout fell 125 million bushels with stronger feed use more than offsetting a small decline in non-ethanol food and industrial usage. The adjustment didn’t extend to USDA 2025-26 average cash price forecast, which stayed at $4.15 a bushel. New crop price expectations were unchanged at $4.40, despite a 170 million bushel cut in projected Aug. 31, 2027, stocks that dropped that number to 1.79 billion.
Soybean demand changes were even more restrained. Old crop carryout fell 10 million bushels on a slight uptick in exports, and that was the only real change on the oilseed’s balance sheet, old or new crop.
Crop size matters
My own forecasts for new crop depend on the size of the crop. Greater soybean production could knock around 50 cents off prices, but the damage in corn could be greater, approaching $1 or more due to increased uncertainties over production.
That dichotomy could be the real take-away from this divergent set of data. Some soybean market moves come from the supply side of the balance sheet, but most of the gyrations seem to stem from demand surprises, notably China’s buying patterns, which change due to both politics and economics. Relations between the U.S. and China seem better now than during the trade war, but a surge in buying could also result if crops in South America suffer from the much-hyped El Nino warming of the equatorial Pacific.
Rallies in corn, by contrast, face more headwinds trying to rally based on demand signals. Buying from livestock feeders is always dicey to predict, and buyers have many alternatives to U.S. feed grains if need be. That’s not true of soybeans, where the U.S. and South America dominate production.
Corn moves are more likely to stem from supply issues, due to the crop’s critical pollination window. Good-looking fields can wilt quickly, hurting yields if heat or drought interrupt the brief reproductive period. Soybeans can recover more quickly from this type of stress – fields aren’t planted and don’t bloom or fill at the same time.
As a result, corn yields can fall nearly 30% below normal in bad years, while soybeans fall less than 20%. Both crops can reach nearly 20% above trend when conditions are favorable.
The seasonal trend for corn tends to peak around the end of June or early July, while the pattern in soybeans favors a later, and longer top. This difference is important as the second half of summer gets underway.
