Historic data shows higher chances of USDA increasing corn yield estimates when the Aug. 12 report is released. And in 2025, that likelihood falls in line with trade expectations.
In this episode of the video series Ag Marketing IQ In Depth, Total Farm Marketing’s Naomi Blohm looks at the corn and soybean markets, where they could go based on historic data and fundamentals, and suggests farmers monitor basis, maintain flexibility in their marketing strategies and consider options for stored grain.
“This corn market just continues to shuffle in a sideways pattern,” Blohm says. “What it's balancing is the potential for a large crop. … The missing piece of the puzzle for corn right now is yield. Once we know that, we can look ahead to South American production and weather patterns," Blohm says.
What is the potential corn yield?
USDA’s last projection held around a 181 bpa average for corn yield, that’s about 4 bpa lower than the trade estimates. An educated guess at where USDA will fall with the Aug. 12 WASDE and Crop Production reports would lean toward a higher estimate. In six of the last 10 years, Blohm’s research shows USDA increased its crop production forecast by an average of three to four bushels.
“However, there's pollination issues in some portions of the country. So that puts a lot of uncertainty out there in terms of yield and where the production is going to be,” Blohm says, nothing USDA’s August report relies on farmer surveys and satellite imagery. “I think overall, with the satellite imagery probably looking good, we're maybe looking to see a production increase on the yield side. So that could be negative for prices.”
As harvest looms, farmers faced with large crops and weak basis likely are looking at storage to strengthen pricing opportunities.
Storage strategies and basis considerations
Given that wider basis levels could persist longer through harvest and into winter, Blohm offers three tips to improve chances to grab better basis opportunities.
- Monitor basis levels from October through spring
- Capture market carry when available
- Explore call option strategies to offset storage costs
Will soybean prices pivot?
Turning to the legume side of the grain market, Blohm notes uncertainties, with November soybeans recently falling below $10 support.
Blohm doesn’t “really expect any changes on the production side of things” in USDA’s upcoming reports.
Exports numbers, she says, are the ones to watch in the soybean sections of the reports. The critical question is whether China will start buying again, as that country accounts for half of U.S. export sales.
“We haven't seen China show up yet to purchase anything,” Blohm says. “So, you know, the question will be, does the USDA acknowledge the lack of China's presence on the August WASDE report or not? Or will they say: ‘Everything's going to be fine and China's going to show up.’ … If that biggest customer isn't there, that's an issue.”
Ultimately, China purchases—or the lack thereof—impacts soybean fundamentals.
“Beans are a big question mark,” Blohm says. “I could see them having a reason why prices could drop 50 cents lower yet. Or if China shows up, if we get some yield surprises that are lower, beans have every reason [to] shoot a dollar higher. So, we're at that turning point right now with the market.”
To hear more in-depth conversation with Blohm, watch the Aug. 6 episode of Ag Marketing IQ In Depth.