Pick a field of High Plains sorghum at random, and the odds are good that the grain it produces might go to an ethanol plant this fall. In some years, up to one-third of the U.S. sorghum crop is used to produce ethanol. Over the last two decades, ethanol has grown into the most stable domestic market for sorghum, bringing stronger basis, more consistency and demand that farmers can count on.
When the ethanol industry is healthy, the sorghum industry is better for it. That’s why the recently proposed renewable volume obligations (RVOs) for 2026 and 2027 matter so much to sorghum farmers.
Set by the EPA under the Renewable Fuel Standard, RVOs are annual blending targets for renewable fuels in the U.S. fuel supply. These numbers might seem like a Washington abstraction (and they are to an extent), but they ripple all the way down and influence farm-level decision-making, from the Midwest to the High Plains.
When RVOs rise or at least remain strong, the entire biofuel economy — from farmers to ethanol plant managers to investors — gains confidence. When they fall or stall, everyone starts to worry.
The proposal on the table calls for 15 billion gallons of conventional ethanol to be blended in both 2026 and 2027. That’s a strong signal. It says the federal government sees a future for ethanol, and it gives the industry permission to think long term. That’s good news for plant expansions, technology upgrades and for farmers looking for a reliable home for their grain.
The proposal also calls for historically large amounts of advanced biofuel to be blended. This is notable for sorghum farmers because sorghum can qualify as an advanced biofuel where corn can’t. Advanced biofuel has a premium associated with it, and today, that premium is 5 to 10 cents per gallon. With every bushel packing the potential for about 3 gallons of ethanol, that means 15 to 30 cents per bushel is the farmgate value proposition of advanced biofuel production from sorghum.
Of course, setting targets is one thing, and meeting them is another. There are a significant number of political factors that will play into the EPA’s final decision on RVOs, and there will be as many unhappy industries and businesses as happy ones when the dust settles. Fortunately, regardless of the final numbers, there are other reasons for optimism.
E15 continues to gain traction, with momentum building in the country and support growing in Washington for permanent, nationwide access to the higher blend of ethanol. At the same time, U.S. ethanol exports remain a bright spot, especially in key markets such as Canada, Mexico and Europe. Sure, current uncertainty around trade is creating challenges, but the fundamentals are strong. The world is increasingly looking to increase the sustainability of its fuel supply, and U.S. ethanol offers a singular opportunity to do so.
All of this means we’re only going to need more ethanol, not less. And that’s where sorghum farmers come in.
Sorghum has a long history with ethanol and a strong future ahead. It uses one-third less water than corn, produces the same amount of ethanol, and often provides more consistent starch in arid regions. If blending volumes grow, we’ll need more gallons. And more gallons means more grain.
We still have work to do. The RVOs aren’t finalized yet, and there will undoubtedly be opposition from interests that would rather see biofuels shrink than grow. But for now, the signal from the Trump administration is clear: There’s a place for American-grown fuel in the years ahead.
When the time comes to deliver, sorghum farmers will be ready.