The 2025 August WASDE report gave the futures market a surprise. Yield increases and acreage adjustments were startling. And the acreage adjustment was especially big. Has it ever been this big?
Not since 1995.
The USDA does change its acreage estimate significantly over the summer. A two-million-acre switch in acreage between corn and soybeans from June to August WASDE is common. But it’s been 30 years since acreage jumped by two million from the July to the August WASDE reports. A surprise for sure.
Observations from this information?
Every year is different when approaching marketing and the macrodata moving markets is almost impossible to predict. Markets—regardless of whether they’re trading grain, equities or metals—react to this data. Surprises like this acreage adjustment emphasize the importance of risk management and executing hedging plans moving into report day.
The following charts show the NASS publication data on acreage and change between WASDE reports from June and July to August.
The charts below show the difference between the June and August WASDE acreage and the July and August WASDE acreage going back to 1995.
* Note 2019 had high prevented plant acreage.
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