by Kelsey Stremel
For Kansas farmers, grain marketing doesn’t begin at harvest. It starts the day the seed goes into the ground.
That lesson came through loud and clear in the 2024 Kansas State University Testing Ag Performance Solutions competition, where the most successful farms weren’t simply those with strong yields, but those that managed grain sales early and often.
In Colby, TAPS participants had to navigate a marketing year defined by sluggish corn prices and brief, unpredictable rallies. USDA’s harvest price of $4.16 per bushel came in 11% lower than the spring projected price of $4.66. December futures offered a 50-cent rally in late August before tumbling 35 cents in October, and only a short-lived rebound closed out the year.
Teams that seized those windows posted the best results: One farm hit $5.01 per bushel through a forward contract, while others that stayed unpriced until the deadline settled closer to $4.24.
Fast-forward to 2025, and the market picture feels familiar.
Closer look at future market
December corn futures peaked near $4.75 in February but have since slipped to about $4.11. Forward cash bids across six Kansas locations averaged $3.79 in late July, covering direct costs and cash rent but leaving little for family living expenses. Basis also is weaker than usual, running about 32 cents below the five-year average. For many, that makes storage a gamble rather than a guarantee of higher returns.
As K-State economist Dan O’Brien notes, the market remains singularly focused on supply, with moderate carryout projected but little demand-side strength showing yet. Without a shock — whether in exports or global disruptions — sideways trading may continue. That makes marketing timing critical.
“Producers need to decide whether they can afford to wait or whether they need to move now to cover costs,” O’Brien cautions.
Be ready to make a market move
TAPS data underscores the same point: Successful farms didn’t wait for the “perfect” price, they managed risk throughout the season.
In 2024, 86 contracts were completed across forward, futures, basis, hedge-to-arrive and spot sales. The spread between the top and bottom marketing performers was about 80 cents per bushel, a difference that shaped net farm income more than any single input decision.
For 2025, opportunities may lie in diversification.
Sorghum bids, for example, show forward prices 30 to 40 cents stronger than spot cash in some Kansas markets, offering a margin-protection play for producers willing to act.
“The first question to answer is always, ‘Can I cover my cost of production?’” says Mark Nelson, Kansas Farm Bureau’s director of commodities. “From there, it’s about matching the tools — whether it’s forward contracts, options or crop mix — to your own risk and opportunities.”
Whether in a competition or on your own acres, the story is the same: Marketing decisions don’t start when the combine pulls in, they start with the first pass across the field. And in a year where markets may stay flat, the farms that plan early and market steadily likely will be the ones still standing tall when the books close.
Stremel is the Western Kansas Research-Extension Center communications and marketing specialist based out of Hays, Kan. Learn more about KSU-TAPS at k-state.edu/taps or follow @KSUTAPS on X, Facebook and Instagram.