Most of the sunflower crop has been rated in the good-to-excellent category in Colorado, Kansas, Minnesota, North Dakota and South Dakota throughout the growing season. This means yields should be above trend, assuming normal weather through the rest of the fall and the lack of an early freeze.
The exception to this would be areas that are affected by drought, where yields will likely be affected. Overall, most market analysts are expecting U.S. sunflower yields to be close to or slightly above the five-year average this year.
Increased planted acres
In July, USDA issued its initial outlook for 2025 sunflower production and usage for the 2025-2026 marketing year. The area planted to oil-type sunflower varieties was estimated at 881,000 acres, which is up 48% from 2024.
Harvested area for oil types was expected to increase 49% from last year to 848,200 acres. Planted acreage of non-oil varieties, estimated at 117,000, is down 8% from last year. Harvested area is expected to decrease 6% from last year to 109,500 acres. Given the higher oil-type acreage, sunflower seed crush was increased by 64 million pounds to 758 million pounds on higher 2025 production.
The other use category (nonoil use and residual) was increased by 145 million pounds to 1.9 billion pounds. Ending stocks are forecast to rise to 254 million pounds, a 26% increase from marketing year 2024-2025 but well below the five-year average. USDA will provide its updated yield and production estimates for sunflowers in October.
USDA increased global sunflower seed production in MY 2025-2026 to 55.1 million metric tons due to higher production in Argentina, Russia and Ukraine. The Black Sea area had an extended period of above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation in May, June and July, causing some concern for sunflower production prospects in the region.
Traders will be watching this region closely during harvest, monitoring yields, as Russia and Ukraine are the largest sunflower producers in the world. Higher production could result in global sunflower seed ending stocks increasing by 5% in MY 2025-2026.
With the higher global seed supply, the MY 2025-2026 global sunflower crush is forecast to reach 50.7 MMT on higher crush volumes in Russia and Ukraine, slightly above MY 2024-2025. Global sunflower oil production is expected to be 21.36 MMT.
Despite the higher global supply of sunflower oil, global sunflower oil stocks are projected to be 2.47 MMT by the end of September 2026, which is down 3% from last year. This is all good news for sunflower prices as we move into the new marketing year.
In preparation for harvest, producers are cleaning out storage bins, and deliveries to crush plants have been on the rise. The situation in Russia and Ukraine bears watching, as they are the largest exporters of sunflower oil. The potential reduced availability of sunflower seed and oil production poses risks for global markets, and U.S. sunflower prices could be responsive to the potential production shortfalls.
To keep up with price movement, go to sunflowernsa.com or follow on X @NatlSunflower.