Sorghum is the third-largest cereal grain in the U.S., and half or more of every crop goes overseas. Exports have long been the lifeblood of our market, supporting prices along with seed companies, elevators, truckers, railroads and exporters across the High Plains and beyond.
For more than a decade, China has been a pillar of that system, buying 70% to 90% of U.S. exports. That reality has changed fast.
In 2025, exports to China are down 97% from last year. That decline has left bids in the Sorghum Belt as low as $2.35 per bushel, far below the cost of production. USDA projects $3.70, but that seems optimistic, with some elevators not even posting bids.
With harvest set to almost a quarter larger than a year ago, storage is tight, basis is widening, and losses in some areas are expected to exceed $100 an acre. We haven’t seen a picture this dire since the Chinese investigation of U.S. sorghum farmers in 2018-2019. Today is worse.
The problem isn’t that China no longer needs sorghum. In fact, demand has held steady. What has changed is suppliers. Australia now supplies more than half of Chinese imports, and Brazil, newly approved in late 2024, is ramping up quickly. About $2 billion in demand has vanished since marketing year 2020-2021. Without renewed access, more of the U.S. crop and the infrastructure that supports it will remain at risk.
These effects reach beyond sorghum. Seven elevators in West Texas have already closed. When acres decline, supply chain partners outside the farmgate feel it as well. These losses ripple into rural schools, hospitals and small businesses. Truly, sorghum is a pillar of heartland resilience, conserving water, building soil health, and sustaining generations of farm families and their communities.
Next moves
Fortunately, we’re far from out of options. First, we can work to restore trade with China. That market remains the single biggest relief valve, capable of absorbing the entire U.S. sorghum crop.
At the same time, we must diversify. Mexico has already stepped back into the market, booking at least 13 million bushels for 2025-2026, with potential for millions more. Vietnam could take up to 20 million bushels, and India represents a longer-term opportunity, especially in ethanol and poultry feed, where non-GMO sorghum has an edge. Every new buyer we secure makes growers less vulnerable to being cut off by one.
Second, food aid has to be part of the solution. Historically, U.S. programs have moved 12 million to 20 million bushels of sorghum per year. Scaling that up now could stabilize basis levels and clear bin space before winter. We should push for those purchases today, not months from now, when the damage is already done.
Finally, the Trump administration and Congress should recognize that while stopgap payments are needed in the short term, they aren’t enough. What will sustain the industry are reliable markets and fair-trade agreements that protect the $1 billion to $2 billion in export value sorghum should generate every year.
Overall, 200 million bushels need to move in the next 100 days. Without reliable outlets, acres will be pressured, and infrastructure will face strain. Farmers are prepared to weather difficult times, but strong markets and sound policy are essential. Sorghum means too much to rural America, water conservation, and the way of life on the High Plains and beyond to accept anything less.