By Celia Bergin
Ukrainian and European sunflower oil prices have jumped as forecasters expect low yields in the country and limited production across the continent, following a hot, dry summer that hampered crop development.
In Ukraine, sunflower yields are expected to fall below the five-year average “largely due to the drought in the south, where most sunflower cultivation takes place,” the European Union’s Monitoring Agricultural Resources unit said in a report. Europe is facing similar challenges, with top producer France expecting output to drop 15% below the five-year average, according to figures from the French agriculture ministry.
Europe could see its worst sunflower harvest in a decade, with output estimated at 8.3 million tons, according to analysis firm Strategie Grains. “It’ll be a bad harvest in the best case, and a disastrous one in the worst,” said Vincent Braak, a crop analyst at the firm.
Sunflower oil costs at French ports are trading near their highest levels since November 2022, while Ukrainian prices are close to a five-month high, data from Commodity3 show. The surge reflects mounting concerns over 2025–26 output, with Ukraine and the EU together accounting for about 40% of global sunflower production, according to the US Department of Agriculture.
Vegetable oil prices are already at their highest since July 2022, according to the FAO’s index of key food commodities, adding pressure to food inflation that remains stuck at a two-year high. Tighter supplies of oilseeds such as palm and rapeseed have also fueled the surge.
In August, sunflower oil was the costliest vegetable oil, World Bank data show. Buyers are responding by making smaller, piecemeal purchases rather than stocking up for months at a time, said Kyle Holland, a senior market reporter at price agency Expana.
“Normally we’d see probably 50%, 60% coverage by now,” Holland said, but purchases to cover demand through December may be only around 30%. Some users are also beginning to reformulate products to reduce sunflower oil use, he said, though that remains limited.
Still, some relief may emerge as harvests advance and supplies increase.
In Ukraine, a top sunflower oil exporter, crop collection has been slow, but “as harvesting progresses north and west, yields are improving,” consultancy UkrAgroConsult said in an email. The firm expects total sunflower production to rise more than 8% from last season, thanks to larger planting areas.
Harvesting is in full swing in Europe. Early yields and oil content remain low, said Braak from Strategie Grains, though he added that there could be “surprises from later crops.”
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