The Sept. 30 Quarterly Grain Stocks and Small Grains Summary reports are right around the corner. Traders will closely monitor both reports as they play important roles for future USDA supply and demand reports.
What’s happened
This is a highly anticipated report for farmers because it provides firm estimates of the U.S. 2024-25 crop (old crop) grain being stored both on and off the farm for major grain and oilseeds.
The Small Grains Summary will take a detailed look at all wheat production, as well as rye, oat and barley production.
From a marketing perspective
The Quarterly Stocks report released the same day will reveal the quarterly stocks numbers for grains and ultimately serve as the ending stock number for the 2024-25 crop year, which then is represented as beginning carry-in for the 2025-26 crop year.
This report provides crucial insights into the available supplies of key crops like corn, soybeans and wheat. Should those numbers surprise the market, they could affect price movements. The report shows remaining supplies of old crop grain in on-farm storage and grain in commercial storage.
A cornerstone of future WASDE reports, this report is particularly important this year. If the prevailing feeling that yields at harvest could be dramatically smaller than expected is reflected in this report, overall combined supplies for grain heading into the 2025-26 crop year could be lower than what was expected earlier this summer. Note the “if.”
The small grains summary for wheat will take a deep dive on all production categories for wheat: hard red winter, soft red winter, white winter, spring wheat and durum wheat. The report will also examine rye, oat and barley production.
Prepare yourself
USDA’s Small Grains Summary and Quarterly Grain Stocks report on Sept. 30 will be closely watched for its impact on grain stocks and prices. With uncertainty regarding U.S. yields this harvest, the market will be keen to see how all factors mix together.
The unpredictable nature of this report, combined with varying yield results, month end position squaring, and end of third quarter position could potentially result in significant market movements heading into October.
Reach Naomi Blohm at 800-334-9779, on X: @naomiblohm, and at naomi@totalfarmmarketing.com.
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