Dry weather is slowing soybean planting in Brazil coming into the critical month of October, says Matthew Kruse, an Iowa grower who also farms in Brazil.
Kruse took the time to check in with a couple Mato Grosso neighbors this week and filed a video report on what’s happening with the 2025-26 soybean crop in South America. Essentially, Kruse says, Mother Nature pulled a “head fake” by shutting the spigot that she opened in September.
“They've already planted 40% of their soybean crop, but they actually shut everything down and they're waiting for more rain,” Kruse reports. “And so, they feel like what they got planted initially had enough moisture for the crop to germinate but if they kept going, they didn't think there was going to be enough moisture at least the next week or two for that additional crop to be planted.”
It’s too early to predict whether dry weather will impact crop acres. Kruse notes that 70% or so of Brazil’s soybeans are planted after Oct. 6.
“So, if it's dry Oct. 1, it's not such a big deal, but if it's still dry Oct. 30th, then they're going to have a problem and things start going in late,” Kruse says.
Hear the full report on Ag Marketing IQ.
Expected soybean acres in Brazil
According to estimates from Brazil’s CONAB, farmers there will plant about 121.2 million acres of soybeans, or about 3.7% more than last year. With flat yields expected, total production then increases by about the same percentage with about 177.6 million tons in 2025-26, up 3.6% from 2024-25.
If rainy weather returns this month, and conditions are conducive to good yields this season, Brazilian soybean production will likely set another record for 2025-26.