With grain in an unusually stable marketing period at the wrong end of the price cycle, commodity farmers are well-advised to focus on risk management and strategic planning. In other words: "Control what you can control and don't store for free."
Farmers must rely on solid marketing strategies rather than speculation as global trade uncertainties continue to lead the narrative and government reporting is delayed in the ongoing U.S. government shutdown. Ultimately, profit potential goes to those who capture available carry while maintaining flexibility to respond to potential fundamental changes in supply, demand or trade relationships.
During this week’s Ag Marketing IQ In Depth, Hedging Strategist Tyler Schau weighs in on storage opportunities and strategies. Shau says many soybean farmers likely will hold onto the 2025 crop well into the marketing year. In a twist on standard strategy, farmers are more likely to sell corn off the combine.
To those who choose to store grain, Schau’s key message is clear: "If you're going to stick them in the bin, there should be a plan. It shouldn't be … hold and hope."
The markets beat that lesson into corn farmers two years ago, the AgMarket.Net analyst recalls. Farmers who loaded their bins at harvest 2023 but made no forward sales ultimately paid storage for a year before selling in August 2024 “at $1 to $1.50 lower than they could have right out of the field."
A more viable strategy is to capture the carry.
Don’t assume a price will hold
For those with adequate storage, Schau says the market is offering attractive carry opportunities, particularly for soybeans. November soybeans were on the board Tuesday at $10.20 but the market offered $10.77 for July 2026. “The market's paying you 57 cents to store that soybean all the way out to July,” Schau says, but he points out that the market only guarantees that price if you forward sell.
To do that, Schau says a farmer can sell futures or use a hedge-to-arrive contract with the potential for better basis.
One reason to consider an HTA is basis levels remain problematic, particularly in western regions.
"You take where I'm at in western North Dakota. There's a lot of elevators out here that aren't even taking soybeans, or they've let their clientele know that as soon as their bin is full … they're shutting the pits and they're not dumping any more beans," Schau reports.
Even in traditional soybean areas, he says conditions are challenging: "We've got some brokers down in Iowa that were once merchandisers telling us it's as wide as they've ever seen the basis in some locations."
Hear more from Schau on this week’s Ag Marketing IQ In Depth.