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Deconstructing the various pros and cons of President Trump would take all day. But one thing is undeniable – Donald has the gift of gab. And he has been able to use it with some effect to move grain markets (soybean futures, in particular), in a positive direction as he tries to hammer out trade negotiations with China. He did it again today, in fact, posting on social media, “I was extremely honored by the fact that President authorized China to begin the purchase of massive amounts of Soybeans, Sorghum, and other Farm products. Our Farmers will be very happy!” To be sure, we have to take some of this rhetoric with a grain of salt until we see more of the specifics. But soybeans enjoyed double-digit gains on Thursday, with Trump’s comments sparking at least some of that technical buying.
Some light showers will be possible across the Corn Belt over the next several days, but few fields will be likely to gather more than 0.25” between Friday and Monday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Later on, NOAA’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts generally warm, dry conditions for the Midwest and Plains between November 6 and November 12.
On Wall St., the Dow pushed another 74 points higher to 47,706, while the S&P 500 fell 0.5% on losses from Meta and Microsoft. Energy futures were in the green, with Brent crude oil testing small gains and staying above $64 per barrel. Gasoline futures found fractional gains. The U.S. Dollar firmed moderately.
Corn prices failed to find forward momentum
Futures prices incurred moderate losses of around 0.5% to 0.75% on Thursday following a round of technical selling and profit taking. December futures dropped 3.75 cents to $4.3025, with March futures down 3 cents to $4.4375.
Amid the ongoing Federal government shutdown, analysts continue to make estimates for grain export sales. Trade guesses for corn sales in the week ending October 23 ranged between 43.3 million and 82.7 million bushels.
Rabobank estimates that Brazil’s 2025-26 corn production potential is currently around 5.39 billion bushels. That would be a year-over-year increase of up to 7.7%, if realized.
Corn settlements on Wednesday were for 473,614 contracts.
Soybean prices soared on China hopes
Prices generally found gains ranging between 0.75% to 1.25% after a round of technical selling that was largely triggered by hopes that China will resume buying soybeans and other U.S. agricultural goods following high-level trade talks that recently concluded. November futures rose 11 cents to $10.9125, with January futures up 13.25 cents to $11.0775.
The rest of the soy complex was mixed. December soymeal futures climbed 2.25% higher, while December soyoil futures eroded 1% lower.
For the week ending October 23, analysts think soybean sales ranged between 22.0 million and 58.8 million bushels. Absent new crop China sales, multiple other countries have been stepping up their own purchases, including Mexico, Egypt, Bangladesh, Taiwan and Japan. Soymeal sales were estimated at 50,000 to 500,000 metric tons last week, with soymeal sales projected to come in between 5,000 and 25,000 MT.
Following recently concluded trade talks, China has reportedly committed to purchasing 441 million bushels of U.S. soybeans that will begin “immediately,” according to U.S. officials. That would be worth almost $6 billion. After that, China plans to commit to annual purchases of around 919 million bushels per year over the next three years. That is in line with historic levels and would bring more stability to the markets. It’s also important to note that a trade agreement has not yet been signed, so these numbers remain somewhat speculative for now. However, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said an agreement could be signed as soon as next week.
Meantime, China is thought to have purchased three cargoes of soybeans yesterday, which is a volume that approximately totals 6.6 million bushels. That’s a step in the right direction, but some farmers and traders, including Chris Nikolaou, general manager of Australian-based Advantage Grain. “The news is no doubt positive, but the markets will be waiting to see what are the details of the agreement,” he told reporters at Bloomberg. Click here to learn more.
On the other hand, President Trump raised some ire with U.S. beef producers recently after arranging a $20 billion currency swap that will help Argentine cattle producers, among other things. The Administration also quadrupled the tariff-free quota on Argentine beef. “The economics in rural America right now is not sustainable,” according to farmer and former Montana Democratic Senator Jon Tester. The Argentine beef deal just “adds to that unsustainability across the board.” Click here to learn more.
Rabobank estimates that Brazil’s soybean production potential for the 2025-26 season is 6.51 billion bushels. Planted area is expected to move another 2% higher, with around 120.5 million acres. That would have average Brazilian soybean yields coming in around 54 bushels per acre this season.
Soybean settlements on Wednesday were for 430,908 contracts.
Winter wheat prices incurred heavy losses
Prices succumbed to a technical setback that pushed some contracts down more than 1.75%. Ample domestic supplies and strong overseas competition are once again causing prices to falter. December Chicago SRW futures fell 8 cents to $5.2425, with December Kansas City HRW futures down 9.75 cents to $5.13.
Analysts estimated that U.S. wheat exports ranged between 12.9 million and 22.0 million bushels in the week through October 23.
South Korea issued an international tender to purchase 1.5 million bushels of milling wheat that closes on Friday. The grain can be sourced from optional origins, but Canada appears to be the preferred supplier. The grain is for shipment between mid-December and mid-January.
CBOT wheat settlements on Wednesday were for 197,590 contracts.