When it comes to corn and soybean markets in 2026, whether the glass is half full or half empty depends on your point of view. Frayne Olson simply relates facts and trends that he sees and lets you decide.
“We saw a big increase in corn acres nationally in ’25 versus ’24, setting the stage for a massive crop,” said Olson, a professor and crops economist at North Dakota State University who serves as director of the Burdick Center for Cooperatives. “At the same time, soybean acreage was down in ’25 versus ’24.
“Expect a reversal this year, with corn acreage down compared to last year and soybean acreage up versus ’25. But there is lots of corn to chew through after last year’s massive crop.”
Several key trends
Here are key observations about current corn and soybean marketing trends:
Massive corn crop. The ’25 corn crop was massive, and there is no other way to describe it, Olson emphasized. At over 17 billion bushels, the ’25 U.S. corn crop was 1.7 billion bushels larger than the previous record U.S. corn crop in ’23.
“To put it in perspective, the increase alone over the previous record crop is almost as large as the entire U.S. wheat crop,” Olson said.
Working through corn bushels. Total corn consumption on the demand side increased and is very high, Olson noted. The ethanol market is sturdy, but with lower overall gas prices, big upticks in ethanol production aren’t likely.
Exports for corn will likely increase, with Mexico, the No. 1 customer for U.S. corn, feeding cattle that stay there due to the New World screwworm situation. Normally, those cattle are finished in the U.S.
The net result is likely a carryout after the marketing year of over 2.2 billion bushels, larger than the normal carryout figure by about a half-billion bushels.
Missing the soybean export window. The size of the ’25 U.S. soybean crop is in line with recent soybean crop sizes. However, soybean exports are down, largely due to reduced exports to China.
However, Olson noted that it appears China will meet its export obligations agreed to in the most recent trade talks. Mexico ranks as the second-largest importer of U.S. soybeans.
“Historically, U.S. soybean exports are highest in the fall before Brazilian soybean harvest,” Olson said. “We missed that window this year. What impact that will have on total exports for the year remains to be seen.”
Basis trends. Some farmers in the western Corn Belt have expressed concern over very wide basis numbers at local elevators.
“They should narrow some, but the problem in the Plains states is that grain for export goes to the West Coast, not to the Gulf, and transportation costs are higher,” Olson said. “Basis is going to be wider compared to the ‘I’ states.”
Price trends for corn and soybeans. Some price improvement occurred after the tough January World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, but Olson predicted primarily sideways movement in price for both corn and soybeans for the foreseeable future, barring unforeseen market news.
“For corn, we’re dealing with the huge ‘25 corn crop to move,” he said. “With soybeans, the export picture isn’t as strong as in recent years, with lots of uncertainty. The net result will likely be markets that don’t move a lot without new reasons to do so.”