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Grain market analyst Bryce Knorr isn’t one to pull punches in his commentary, and today’s Ag Marketing IQ blog is a great example of that. One critical question he has been asking – is it time to price inventory and look to the future? “December corn stayed in the middle of my projected selling range of $4.60 to $5, keeping sales attractive for growers who can’t stomach a downturn,” he noted. Your mileage (and risk aversion) may vary, of course. Today, corn prices trended another 1.25% higher, with most soybean contracts up at least 1.75%. Winter wheat prices were steady to moderately higher to start the week.
After some severe flooding in parts of the eastern Corn Belt earlier this month, rains will let up a bit, although an area stretching between Nebraska and southern Indiana could gather another 1” or more between Tuesday and Friday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Later this month, NOAA’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts near-normal precipitation for most of the Midwest between August 24 and August 30, with widespread hotter-than-normal conditions for the central U.S. as the month draws to a close.
On Wall St., the Dow tilted 244 points lower in afternoon trading to 53,487 with ongoing tensions in the Middle East weighing on the market. Negotiations between the U.S. and Iran have stalled, with a ceasefire deadline looming today. Energy futures shifted higher on those headlines, with Brent crude oil up more than 2.25% this afternoon to clear back above $90 per barrel. Gasoline futures trended almost 2.5% higher. The U.S. Dollar softened slightly.
Corn prices pushed higher on Monday
Hot weather? Recent flooding in the eastern Corn Belt? Continued strong demand? Several factors converged to generate a round of technical buying on Monday that led to gains of around 1.25% today. September futures rose 6 cents to $4.65, with December futures up 6.25 cents to $4.8950.
Corn export inspections in the week through August 13 reached 75.2 million bushels, which was a week-over-week increase of 8.6%. Mexico, Japan, Colombia, Spain and Portugal were the top five destinations. Cumulative totals for the 2025-26 marketing year have reached 3.186 billion bushels, which is a year-over-year increase of more than 26% so far.
Research and advisory firm AgResource conducted a crop tour last week and estimates national corn yields at 178 bushels per acre on the heels of that trip. "It appears that due to high cost and unprofitable production margins, farmers trimmed their nitrogen application rate," says the firm. "This was not universal, but the wet spring also caused nitrogen leaching, which was not fully replaced during the growing season by the application of 32%." The Pro Farmer Crop Tour, which kicked off this morning, should offer more yield and production predictions for the industry to ponder.
Meantime, you should be asking three questions after the August WASDE report, according to grain market analyst Bryce Knorr. That includes: Will gains last? What could happen to yields as harvest reveals the real size of these crops? And is it time to price inventory and move on to 2027? Knorr untangles these questions in today’s Ag Marketing IQ blog – click here to learn more.
Corn settlements on Friday were for 430,836 contracts.
Soybean prices moved back above the $12 benchmark
Wet weather worries in the Midwest preceding the next USDA crop progress report, out later Monday afternoon, helped trigger a round of technical buying that led to substantial gains on Monday. A generally strong crushing report from NOPA added to the overall bullish sentiment. September futures rose 23.25 cents to $12.01, with November futures up 23.5 cents to $12.16.
The rest of the soy complex also pressed higher. October soymeal futures were up around 0.75%, while October soyoil futures climbed almost 3% higher.
Soybean export inspections in the week through August 13 only reached 9.9 million bushels, which was a week-over-week decline of 34%. Egypt, Japan, Mexico, Indonesia and Taiwan were the top five destinations, with China (the world’s No. 1 soybean importer) failing to crack that list last week. Cumulative totals for the 2025-26 marketing year have reached 1.471 billion bushels, which is a year-over-year decline of 18.2% so far.
The National Oilseed Processors Association reported earlier today that the July U.S. soybean crush totaled 216.65 million bushels. That was below the average trade guess of 221.5 million bushels but still a record for May volume after climbing 10.7% higher year-over-year. Soyoil stocks declined 9.4% year-over-year after reaching 1.36 billion pounds through July 31.
Soybean settlements on Friday were for 174,086 contracts.
Winter wheat prices found mixed beginning-of-week results
Ongoing tensions in the Black Sea region kept the bullish environment somewhat alive on Monday, but prices ultimately failed to pop like some other commodities today as some profit-taking also lurked in the background. September Chicago SRW futures held steady at $6.4775, while September Kansas City HRW futures rose another 4.5 cents to $7.5875.
Wheat export inspections reached 18.1 million bushels in the week through August 13, inching 1.3% above the prior week’s tally of 17.9 million bushels. Japan, Mexico, Indonesia, Thailand and Honduras were the top five destinations. Cumulative totals for the 2026-27 marketing year have slumped nearly 20% below the prior year’s pace so far after reaching 142.9 million bushels.
The USDA-ERS August 2026 Wheat Outlook noted domestic all-wheat production is falling to a 56-year low of 1.531 billion bushels. Combined with ongoing disruptions in the Black Sea region, that helped move the season-average farm price up 20 cents from July to $6.20 per bushel. Tighter U.S. stocks (down 13% year-over-year) are also contributing to a more bullish price environment. Click here to learn more.
A decade or more ago, agricultural drones were focused on improving field scouting experiences. Since that time, their capabilities have grown by leaps and bounds, according to Mike Horton, CEO of HyFix, a California-based startup that is developing computer chips that are especially designed to use in drones and robots. “We think the future is going to be spot spraying,” he says. “As you fly, [the chip] identifies what needs to be sprayed and where.” For now, China-produced drones tend to be cheaper and better, but that may change in the near future. Farm Progress Andy Castillo took a closer look at the unfolding situation – click here to learn more.
CBOT wheat settlements on Friday were for 260,972 contracts.