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Hurricane Polo is making landfall in Mexico today, with the remnants expected to move through parts of the Midwest and Plains later this week. That leaves a wide swath of the U.S., stretching from Arizona all the way through Wisconsin, susceptible to another 1 to 3 inches or more between Tuesday and Friday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Later on, NOAA’s new eight- to 14-day outlook predicts a return to drier-than-normal conditions for most of the Corn Belt for Oct. 5-11, with warmer-than-normal temperatures likely for the western half of the country during this time.
On Wall Street, the Dow tilted 278 points lower in afternoon trading to 51,549 after U.S. Treasury yields moved back to multiyear highs. Those yields have “come back up meaningfully today, and that’s causing an understandable weakness in the tape,” said Justin Bergner, portfolio manager at Gabelli Funds, to CNBC. “The competition for capital with AI hyperscaler spending ... also pressures the consumer with higher rates, so it kind of makes the market more one-sided than it already is.”
Energy futures were mixed, with Brent crude oil up almost 0.5% this afternoon as it closed back in on $98 per barrel. Gasoline futures failed to follow suit, stumbling 1% lower. The U.S. dollar firmed moderately.
Corn prices fail in bid to move higher
Some late-session technical buying wasn’t enough to get prices back in the green, ultimately incurring losses of around 1% on Monday. December futures fell 5.25 cents to $5.23, with March futures down 5.5 cents to $5.3650.
Corn export inspections reached 61.7 million bushels in the week through Sept. 25. That was on the very high end of analyst estimates, which ranged between 49.2 million and 63 million bushels. Still, it was a week-over-week decline of around 20%.
South Korea, Mexico, Japan, Colombia and Portugal were the top five destinations. For the young 2026-27 marketing year, total volume is up around 12% after reaching 225.4 million bushels since the beginning of September.
The strengthening El Niño conditions heading into the winter months could lead to generally mild, wet weather that could hamper both corn harvesting and winter wheat planting. That has some traders expecting higher prices depending on what actually unfolds.
“In our view, markets continue to underestimate the cumulative impact of these overlapping supply shocks, leaving stock-to-use ratios vulnerable to further tightening and agricultural prices skewed to the upside,” according to analysts with Citi Research in a note.
Sometimes, wills are worthless — but not because they simply exist. Instead, a will can be worthless “because it didn’t reflect what the family actually built, worked for and talked about,” said Mike Downey, manager of succession planning with Uncommon Farms. “This matters because a lot of the documents built to protect your farm are designed around tax strategy first, equal distributions second and family intent last.”
What can be done about this unfortunate reality? Downey offers some relevant advice in his latest More Than Dirt column — click here to learn more.
Corn settlements on Friday were for 570,949 contracts.
Soybean prices slump noticeably lower
Prices incurred double-digit losses following an ample round of technical selling on Monday amid concerns over the state of U.S.-China trade for this key commodity. January futures stumbled 29.5 cents lower to $13.03, with March futures down 27.5 cents to $13.12.
The rest of the soy complex was also in the red. December soymeal futures eroded more than 3% lower. December soy oil futures were relatively spared, down around 0.25%.
Soybean export inspections reached 42.4 million bushels in the week through Sept. 25, which was a week-over-week improvement of nearly 50%. It was also above the entire set of trade guesses, which ranged between 22 million and 33.1 million bushels.
China, Egypt, Japan, Algeria and Italy were the top five destinations. Cumulative totals for the 2026-27 marketing year are trending more than 25% above last year’s pace so far after reaching 104.5 million bushels.
Finally, some details on the U.S.-China trade talks that took place last week: “Both governments said they intend to cut rates on about $30 billion of imports as they take further steps to steady ties following last week’s summit between presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping,” according to reporting from Bloomberg. “For China, that includes American farm products from corn to wheat and sorghum, plus many types of meat, seafood and fresh produce.”
However, China was conspicuously absent from this list. Tariffs that amount to 13% have kept some private traders on the sidelines in recent months. Click here to learn more.
Grain markets are in a holding pattern after hitting new highs, with corn and soybeans trading in tight ranges despite record fund long positions — raising concerns about potential explosive moves. Multiple high-impact catalysts loom: the Trump-Xi summit, the USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks report coming this Wednesday, Corn Belt harvest delays from waterlogged fields, Middle East and Black Sea tensions, record diesel prices, and aggressive Fed tightening.
The latest Top Tips edition offers guidance on navigating this uncertainty by asking five critical questions as September ends. Click here to learn more.
Brazilian consultancy AgRural estimates that 3.4% of the country’s 2026-27 Center-South soybean plantings are complete through Sept. 24, which is modestly above last season’s pace of 3.2% so far.
Soybean settlements on Friday were for 335,659 contracts.
Winter wheat prices struggle to find traction
While ongoing concerns around the Black Sea region have driven prices higher earlier this year, a multinational peace effort from Turkey, Egypt and others seems to be making some headway, which dampened U.S. prices to start the week. The U.S. Plains will also receive some much-needed rains later this week, although some areas will get an overabundance that will slow winter wheat planting progress. Today, December Chicago soft red winter futures fell 14.5 cents to $6.8875, with December Kansas City hard red winter futures down 16.25 cents to $7.4575.
Wheat export inspections were fairly pedestrian last week after only reaching 11.4 million bushels. That was around a 9% decline from the prior week’s tally and were slightly on the higher end of analyst estimates, which ranged between 7.3 million and 14.7 million bushels. Marketing year-to-date totals have reached 233 million bushels, which is slumping 34% below last year’s pace so far.
What can artificial intelligence do for you and your farming operation? Fourth-generation rancher Carrie Richards, with some help from Agco’s Adrian Crawford, are leveraging AI to solve some critical challenges in her operation.
“If you are not JBS, Tyson or Cargill and own the whole supply chain, the middle part of meat production is very hard to track,” Richards said. “Our costs fluctuate from month to month. Overnight, gas prices could change, and my hauling costs could go from $3,000 to $4,000 real quick.”
Farm Progress tech editor Andy Castillo took a closer look at some of the challenges faced and solutions discovered in his latest reporting. Click here to learn more.
And finally, the latest edition of “This Week in Agribusiness” covered a wide variety of topics, including 45Z tax credits, the Agronomy Zone at this year’s Farm Progress Show, fertilizer supplies, exports to China, new farm products and more. Click here to listen to farm broadcasters Mike Pearson and Max Armstrong navigate these waters.
CBOT wheat settlements on Friday were for 138,720 contracts.