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As geopolitical tensions escalated in the Middle East last week, grain prices moved significantly higher at a pretty consistent clip. But it appears they have reached high enough levels to attract some profit-taking and technical selling, leading to mild to moderate cuts on Monday. Corn prices eroded more than 1% lower today, while soybean prices faced much more modest cuts. Wheat losses were variable, meantime. Tomorrow, prices will have a chance to get back into the green, depending on what the data from USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report reveals.
More rains will be arriving in the central U.S. later this week, with parts of the Mid-South and eastern Corn Belt set to gather another 1” to 2” between Tuesday and Friday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Later this month, NOAA’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts some drier-than-normal conditions returning to parts of the Midwest and Plains between March 16 and March 22, with warmer-than-normal temperatures likely for the western half of the United States during this time.
On Wall St., the Dow stumbled 357 points lower in afternoon trading to 47,143 amid ongoing anxiety over sharply higher crude oil prices, which could slow economic growth and introduce stagflation into the U.S. economy. Energy prices continued to rise, with Brent crude oil futures jumping another 6.25% higher this afternoon to $98 per barrel. Gasoline futures were up almost 2%. The U.S. Dollar firmed moderately.
Corn prices eased slightly into the red
A round of technical selling and profit-taking led to modest losses on Monday, with overnight gains evaporating during today’s session. May futures fell 6.75 cents to $4.5375, with July futures down 5.5 cents to $4.6550.
Corn export inspections for the week ending March 5 slid 18% lower from the prior week after reaching 59.7 million bushels. That was also a bit on the lower end of analyst estimates, which ranged between 43.3 million and 88.6 million bushels. Mexico, Japan, China, South Korea and Panama were the top five destinations. Cumulative totals for the 2025-26 marketing year have jumped 42% above last year’s pace after reaching 1.620 billion bushels.
Ahead of Tuesday morning’s WASDE report, analysts are expecting to see 2025-26 corn stocks increase from 2.127 billion bushels in February up to 2.155 billion bushels in March. Individual trade guesses ranged between 2.077 billion and 2.428 billion bushels.
Grain prices saw a strong run-up throughout February and early March. So, what’s in store moving forward? “Be ready for more volatility ahead,” notes Naomi Blohm, senior market adviser with Total Farm Marketing, who is looking at six important fundamentals worth monitoring moving forward. “First, keep an eye on the various upcoming USDA reports scheduled during March. The March USDA WASDE report is scheduled for Tuesday,” she says. “This report may show some modest tweaks on the demand side for U.S. grains for the 2025-26 crop year but also will include updates on global production. Traders are monitoring the updated size of the corn and soybean crops in Brazil and Argentina.” Blohm walked through five more factors at play in a recent Ag Marketing IQ blog – click here to learn more.
The Strait of Hormuz, which is regarded as a critical chokepoint for global energy trade, has been at a near standstill for shipping traffic since March 2 amid ongoing military strikes by the United States and Israel. Iran has recently targeted vessels attempting to transit the strait, claiming they were ignoring warnings. Ongoing actions in the region have caused energy prices to move dramatically and consistently higher throughout March so far.
Brazilian consultancy AgRural reported that 42% of the country’s first corn crop has been harvested through March 5, which is notably below the prior season’s pace of 54%. And Brazil’s second corn crop is 82% planted over the same period, also behind last season’s pace of 92%.
Corn settlements on Friday were for 769,878 contracts.
Soybean prices followed other grains lower
Prices were up double-digits heading into Monday’s session, but those overnight gains were lost following a pattern of technical selling today. May futures dropped 4.5 cents to $11.9625, with July futures down 4 cents to $12.09.
The rest of the soy complex also spilled into the red. May soymeal futures were down almost 1.25%, while May soyoil futures moved almost 0.75% lower.
Soybean export inspections faded 24% lower week-over-week after reaching 32.3 million bushels in the week through March 5. That was on the very high end of analyst estimates, which ranged between 18.4 million and 32.9 million bushels. China, Egypt, Indonesia, Mexico and Colombia were the top five destinations. Cumulative totals for the 2025-26 marketing year are trending 30% below last year’s pace so far after reaching 995.0 million bushels.
Prior to tomorrow morning’s WASDE report, analysts are expecting to see soybean stocks trimmed from 350 million bushels in February down to 343 million bushels in March. Individual trade guesses ranged between 265 million and 350 million bushels.
Brazilian consultancy AgRural reported that 51% of the country’s 2025-26 soybean crop has been harvested through last Thursday. That’s 10 points behind last year’s pace of 61% by the same date.
Soybean settlements on Friday were for 439,972 contracts.
Winter wheat prices faced variable cuts on Monday
Prices followed a broad set of other commodities lower to start the week, with Chicago SRW futures facing the sharpest cuts by a long shot. May futures stumbled 13.5 cents lower to $6.0325, while May Kansas City HRW futures dropped 3.75 cents to $6.1975. Traders will now look ahead to tomorrow’s WASDE report.
Wheat export inspections climbed almost 40% higher after reaching 18.2 million bushels in the week through March 5. That was also better than the entire set of analyst estimates, which ranged between 7.3 million and 16.5 million bushels. China, Mexico, the Philippines, Thailand and South Korea were the top five destinations. Cumulative totals for the 2025-26 marketing year are 20% above last year’s pace so far after reaching 703.0 million bushels.
Ahead of Tuesday morning’s USDA WASDE report, analysts expect the agency to show 2025-26 wheat stocks decrease from 931 million bushels in February to 923 million bushels in March. Individual trade guesses ranged between 900 million and 956 million bushels.
CBOT wheat settlements on Friday were for 320,915 contracts.