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Variable rains are possible across the central U.S. over the next several days, with parts of the Central Plains and eastern Corn Belt possibly gathering another 0.5” to 0.75” or more between Tuesday and Friday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Later on, NOAA’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts near-normal precipitation for most of the Corn Belt between August 3 and August 9, with warmer-than-normal temperatures likely for the Midwest and Plains during this time.
On Wall St., the Dow shifted 140 points higher in afternoon trading to 52,087, which was somewhat attributed to stumbling energy futures. (It’s worth mentioning again that lingering high oil prices put a strain on both the U.S. and global economy.) Energy futures took a big step back, with Brent crude oil sinking more than 6% this afternoon to $86 per barrel. Gasoline futures tracked more than 2.5% lower. The U.S. Dollar firmed slightly.
Corn prices fell into the ditch
Traders pounced on the opportunity for a round of technical selling and profit taking on Monday, sending prices spiraling noticeably lower on Monday. September futures fell 12.5 cents to $4.5175, with December futures down 13.5 cents to $4.74.
Corn export inspections eased 7.7% in the week through July 23 after reaching 58.6 million bushels. Mexico, Japan, Colombia, South Korea and Taiwan were the top five destinations. Cumulative totals for the 2025-26 marketing year have reached 2.965 billion bushels, which is nearly 25% ahead of last year’s pace so far.
Is today’s negative price movement a one-off or a signal that corn futures are near their projected 2026 peaks? That was a critical question asked by grain market analyst Bryce Knorr. “Corn appeared at greater risk of confirming a high, which wasn’t surprising because rallies off spring lows are tied to yield expectations,” he noted. “Conditions from USDA Crop Progress ratings were modestly above average, with my models projecting a yield of 185.1 bushels per acre, slightly above the 183 printed in July’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates and in line with readings from the Vegetation Health Index.” Knorr also took a look at some historical data worth peeking at in today’s Ag Marketing IQ blog – click here to learn more.
Illinois farmer Brian Krukewitt was tired of downloading maintenance apps that didn’t work like he wanted them to – “hated them,” is how he put it. After a while, he stopped looking and started building his own app, called FarmGuard Maintenance. “I’ve always had an interest in technology. I’m always doing stuff with precision ag around the farm and trying to find an edge,” he said. Krukewitt shared his thoughts on his process with our sister publication Prairie Farmer – click here to learn more.
Corn settlements on Friday were for 509,655 contracts.
Soybean prices shrugged off fresh demand clues
Another large sale of U.S. beans to China was announced this morning, but that bullish bit was mostly ignored as traders locked onto more favorable weather forecasts later this week and a sizable slump in crude oil prices, which triggered an ample round of technical selling on Monday. September futures stumbled 40.5 cents to $11.9975, with November futures down 39.75 cents to $12.1375.
The rest of the soy complex was also in the red. August soymeal futures spilled more than 3% lower, while August soyoil futures were down almost 4%.
Private exporters announced to USDA two large soybean sales to USDA on Monday. The first was for 4.9 million bushels to China, and the second was for 4.6 million bushels to unknown destinations. Both sales are for delivery during the 2026-27 marketing year, which begins September 1.
Soybean export inspections improved 9.3% in the week through July 23 after reaching 12.8 million bushels. Mexico, Egypt, Japan, Algeria and Colombia were the top five destinations. Marketing year-to-date volumes are down 17.5% versus last year’s pace after reaching 1.432 billion bushels.
“August may be late innings for summer, but it’s really just a warmup for the biggest guessing game going on in the grain markets: Just how big or small are this year’s corn and soybean crops?,” asked Farm Futures senior editor Bruce Blythe. The next WASDE report from USDA (out in mid-August) will be one of several futures attempts to nail down a more accurate production estimate. Blythe took a closer look at some of the factors driving yield trends right now in his latest Soybean Outlook – click here to learn more.
Soybean settlements on Friday were for 341,326 contracts.
Winter wheat prices followed other commodities lower
A pause in fighting in Iran sent oil prices eroding significantly lower, which dragged a bunch of other commodities into the red, and winter wheat prices were not spared from that trend. Harvest pressure also lurks in the background, with USDA set to deliver its next weekly crop progress report later today. September Chicago SRW futures fell 18 cents to $6.60, with September Kansas City HRW futures shifting 16.25 cents lower to 7.29.
Wheat export shipments jumped 72% higher in the week through July 23 after reaching 14.5 million bushels. Mexico, Bangladesh, Japan, Colombia and Egypt were the top five destinations, Still, marketing year-to-date totals for 2026-27 are slumping more than 23% below last year’s pace after reaching 93.4 million bushels.
And finally, sometimes the best farm safety advice is the simplest – and most overlooked – according to Allison Lynch, staff writer with our sister publication Indiana Prairie Farmer. That includes getting a good night’s rest. “This one is hard,” she said. “And I’m not going to pretend that we get adequate sleep during the busy seasons. But when you get home in the evening — or the wee hours of the morning — try to turn off your mind, set the phone aside and get some rest. Sleeping as much as you can between long days and nights will, hopefully, provide greater clarity and help you prepare for another busy day in the field.” Lynch shared additional advice in her latest Hoosier Perspectives blog – click here to learn more.
CBOT wheat settlements on Friday were for 223,226 contracts.