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For all the talk about the so-called “China trade war 2.0,” I think grain market analyst Bryce Knorr has cracked the code. Because at the end of the day, it comes down to some simple math, Knorr says. Brazil can’t grow enough to feed China by itself, and Argentina doesn’t grow enough to pick up the slack. The United States, therefore, remains an important long-term part of this equation, despite some of the short-term pain China levied by abstaining from new crop sales earlier this fall. Still, it will be critical to pay close attention to see how much U.S. soybeans China ends up buying later this year, and we’ll have to wait and see if they come through on promised volumes for 2026 and 2027.
The Midwest and Plains should remain completely dry between Tuesday and Friday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. If you happen to catch a stray shower later this week, it's definitely an anomaly. Later on, NOAA’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts some seasonally wet weather possible for Missouri, Illinois and Indiana between November 10 and November 16, with warmer-than-normal conditions likely for the central U.S. during this time.
On Wall St., the Dow shifted 163 points lower in afternoon trading to 47,399, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq tested modest gains to start the week. Energy futures moved higher, with Brent crude oil up 0.25% to close in on $65 per barrel. Gasoline futures rose almost 1% higher. The U.S. Dollar firmed slightly.
Corn prices grabbed moderate gains
Prices responded positively to start the week, largely due to spillover support from surging soybeans. December and March futures each added 2.75 cents to settle at $4.3425 and $4.4675, respectively.
Corn export inspections jumped substantially higher week-over-week after reaching 65.7 million bushels. That was comfortably within analyst estimates, which ranged between 39.4 million and 72.8 million bushels. Mexico was the No. 1 destination, with 20.2 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2025-26 marketing year have jumped an impressive 64.0% above last year's pace so far after reaching 482.6 million bushels.
SNAP payments don’t just benefit direct recipients – they help entire communities, notes Jenni Latzke, editor of Kansas Farmer. “USDA-ERS in 2019 reported that for every $1 in SNAP benefits, $1.54 is generated in economic activity,” she writes. “The same government report also shows that every $20,000 of SNAP redemptions in what you and I call rural counties supports about one agricultural job. “USDA-ERS reports, too, that farmers received about 24.3 cents for every $1 spent on food at home in 2023 — and that included SNAP purchases.” Latzke explores the matter in greater detail – click here to learn more.
Ukraine’s economic minister reported that the country’s corn exports reached 31.5 million bushels in October, which is a year-over-year decline of 53.8%. The country is dealing with significant harvest delays following prolonged rains earlier in the season. Ukrainian farmers continue to deal with various infrastructure damage and logistical challenges amid the ongoing war with Russia.
Brazil’s AgRural consultancy reports that 60% of the country’s first corn crop has been planted through October 30, which is fractionally above last year’s pace so far. Total corn acreage may decline 4% year-over-year, although first crop plantings could see a 6% boost.
Argentina’s Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that 35% of the country’s 2025-26 corn crop has been planted through late October. Argentina is currently in position to produce a record-breaking volume of up to 2.4 billion bushels if favorable weather patterns hold up.
Corn settlements on Friday were for 364,110 contracts.
Soybean prices jump higher on easing trade tensions
Prices tilted a bit lower briefly on Monday morning but made a remarkable recovery by the close, raking in double-digit gains in the process as China reportedly continues to book additional cargoes for delivery later this year. November futures climbed 20 cents higher to $11.1975, with January futures up 19 cents to $11.3425.
The rest of the soy complex was mixed. December soymeal futures eased 0.25% lower, while December soyoil futures rose almost 2.5% higher.
Soybean export inspections declined 16.8% lower week-over-week after reaching 35.5 million bushels. That was within analyst estimates, which ranged between 29.4 million and 51.4 million bushels. Egypt was the No. 1 destination, with 8.6 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2025-26 marketing year are trending 40% below last year’s pace so far after reaching 286.0 million bushels.
“As I’ve pointed out recently, China has no choice but to buy U.S. originations,” notes grain market analyst Bryce Knorr. “Brazil can’t grow enough to feed the world’s largest nation all by its lonesome, and Argentina can’t pick up the slack – its processing industry is a key source of jobs and revenue for the government. And, as the deal to end the first trade war showed, goals on paper are one thing. Actually buying all those beans is another.” Knorr explores the situation in greater detail in today’s Ag Marketing IQ blog – click here to learn more.
Brazil’s AgRural consultancy reported that 47% of the country’s 2025-26 soybean crop has been planted through October 30, which is a seven-point reduction versus last season’s pace so far. However, total plantings this season could reach a record of around 117 million acres.
In the most recent edition of This Week in Agribusiness, farm broadcaster Mike Pearson caught up with Naomi Blohm, senior market adviser with Total Farm Marketing, to talk about several key things affecting the markets right now, including China’s recent soybean purchases, soybean basis swings, re-ownership strategies and much more. Click here to watch.
Soybean settlements on Friday were for 288,893 contracts.
Winter wheat prices joined in on the fun today
Prices enjoyed a round of ample technical buying that was largely spurred by speculation that China is interested in making the first U.S. wheat purchases in more than a year. December Chicago SRW futures rose 9.5 cents to $5.4350, with December Kansas City HRW futures up 7.25 cents to $5.3175.
Wheat export inspections rebounded to 12.9 million bushels last week, recovering from the prior week’s disappointing 9.9 million bushels. It was above the midpoint of trade guesses, which ranged between 9.2 million and 16.5 million bushels. The Philippines topped all destinations, with 2.1 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2025-26 marketing year are tracking 20.5% above last year’s pace after reaching 434.6 million bushels.
China has not purchased U.S. wheat since October 2024, but a major Chinese grain importer made inquiries this past week for U.S. wheat cargoes loading between December 2025 to February 2026. That may represent the reopening of a large export market for U.S. wheat producers if it comes to fruition. China is also expected to step up purchases of other U.S. commodities, including soybeans and sorghum.
Argentina’s Buenos Aires Grains Exchange estimates that 8.4% of the country’s current wheat crop has been harvested so far. Production could come in at near-record levels, with estimates ranging between 808 million and 845 million bushels. More than 80% of the country’s wheat acres have maintained adequate to optimum soil moisture levels.
CBOT wheat settlements on Friday were for 218,171 contracts.