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Is it safe for corn market bulls (and farmers, for that matter) to come out of hiding? Corn futures have been in near free-fall since topping $5 a month ago, and the new-crop December contract sank further overnight to post a fresh contract low at $4.3550. But the market mustered some corrective buying and ended with modest gains. Could prices finally be nearing a bottom, or is there more downside ahead? The next few weeks will be telling, with Midwest weather looking mostly favorable but USDA’s big Acreage report looming June 30.
In other markets, crude oil futures slumped over 3% amid heightened hopes for a U.S.-Iran peace deal that could re-open the Strait of Hormuz, while major equity benchmarks climbed in the wake of the massive SpaceX IPO.
After a soggy week, Midwest rainfall coverage is expected to shrink through the middle of next week, with heaviest amounts seen for the southern Corn Belt. Much of Missouri and eastern Kansas could receive 1.25 inches to over 3 inches of by Thursday, based on a National Weather Service five-day outlook. Lighter amounts of 1 inch or less are possible for Indiana and Ohio, while the western Corn Belt and Northern Plains look mostly dry.
Corn sees corrective bounce from contract lows
July corn futures rose 1 cent to $4.1275 per bushel, rebounding from a contract low posted overnight at $4.0850. Futures still fell 4.75 cents for the week to record a third straight weekly loss. December corn rose 0.75 cent to $4.4025 after bouncing from a contract low at $4.3550.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price rose about 1.25 cents Friday to just over $3.8075. Friday’s average was about 32 cents below July futures, narrowing from 34.25 cents a week earlier.
July corn futures sank 11.75 cents Friday to $4.5575, the contract’s lowest close since April 14. Futures dropped 25 cents the past two days and lost 15.5 cents this week to record a second straight weekly decline.
December corn shed 10.25 cents Friday to end at $4.81, near a four-week low and down 12.5 cents for the week. The new-crop contract has tumbled 25.5 cents, or 5%, from a 2 ½-year high at $5.0650 posted Wednesday and has erased about 68% of a 37-cent rally from mid-April lows.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price fell about 11.75 cents Friday to just under $4.1525, down 14.5 cents for the week. Friday’s average was about 40.5 cents below July futures, narrowing from 41.75 cents a week earlier.
Corn futures shrugged off weakness in crude oil and generated a modest corrective rebound from a dip to contract lows overnight. Technicals indicate the market is severely oversold, which could encourage some near-term buying interest next week.
Early pressure stemmed in part from Thursday’s USDA Supply and Demand update, which included small tweaks to the U.S. balance sheet but also hikes to South America’s production. USDA raised Brazil’s corn harvest estimate 3 million metric tons, or 2.2%, to a record 139 MMT (5.47 billion bushels), and boosted Argentina’s crop 2 MMT to 61 MMT. USDA also cited higher production in India.
The report reinforced a generally bearish global supply picture that combined with mostly favorable Midwest growing conditions after widespread, soaking rains moved across the region this week. Relatively mild temperatures are expected during the second half of June, which should be ideal for crop development.
Trade focus now shifts to USDA’s June 30 Acreage report, which is widely expected to include a downward revision to corn plantings. Meantime, a crop-friendly weather outlook for the second half of June could keep futures on a downward path. However, if today’s lows hold next week, that could lead to ideas prices have found a near-term bottom.
Potential market influencers next week include Monday’s USDA crop ratings update, which, following widespread soaking rains this week, is expected to show improvement from intially disappointing numbers.
Last Monday, USDA reported 67% of the crop in 18 top U.S. corn states in either “good” or “excellent” condition as of June 7, unchanged from a week earlier and down from 71% a year earlier (this week’s “excellent” figure rose to 12% from 10%, while “good” fell to 55% from 57%). Analysts were expecting the good-to-excellent number to climb to about 69%. USDA said 86% of the crop had emerged, up from 76% a week earlier and even with the five-year average.
Ratings compiled by some private firms indicate variability in crop conditions across the Midwest. Earlier this week, Farmer’s Keeper said its initial national corn rating came in at 6.79 out of 10, reflecting an “above average” crop. State-level ratings ranged from 7.79 for Minnesota to 6.24 for Missouri. The ratings were based on a survey of over 4,000 farmers, the firm said.
“Farmers in Minnesota, Illinois and Iowa report good stands and strong early-season growth,” Farmer’s Keeper said in a report. However, “dry conditions and limited subsoil moisture (are) weighing on crops in Nebraska, Kansas and the Carolinas.”
Also Monday, traders will watch USDA’s weekly inspections update to see if corn can sustain an early-June surge in shipments.
USDA reported corn inspected for export during the week ended June 4 at a five-week high of 1.911 million metric tons (75.2 million bushels), up 9.2% from the previous week and up over 10% from the same week a year earlier. Mexico was the top destination at 497,128 metric tons.
While grain prices have been in near free-fall since mid-May, it’s no time for farmers to push the panic button. Many experts suggest a go-slow tack on pricing grain right now. “The selloff is technically overdone, and a price recovery bounce may be likely in the week ahead,” advisor Naomi Blohm says. Action items in our latest Top Tips.
Soybeans follow crude oil lower amid outlook for higher acres
July soybeans fell 1.5 cents to $11.1350, the contract’s 10th daily decline in the past 11 days and its lowest close since February 3. Futures fell 8 cents for the week to post a third straight weekly drop.
November soybeans fell 2 cents to $11.32, near a three-month closing low and down 5.5 cents for the week. Key downside levels to watch include the March low at $11.18 and the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) around $11.1425.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price fell 1.25 cents Friday just under $10.5950. Friday’s average was about 54 cents below July futures, narrowing from 58.25 cents a week earlier.
July soymeal fell 40 cents to $301.30 per ton. July soyoil fell 17 points to 74.28 cents per pound, down from a four-year closing high at 79.09 cents posted June 1.
Soybean prices sustained overnight losses as reports of a U.S.-Iran peace deal sent crude oil prices sinking to two-month lows. President Trump on Thursday called off strikes on Iran, and a memorandum between the two sides to halt the war could be signed as soon as Sunday, Reuters reported.
July WTI crude oil futures fell nearly 4% in late trading to $84.52 per barrel after sinking to the lowest levels since mid-April.
Otherwise, Midwest growing conditions remain favorable for crop development, while Thursday’s supply and Demand report included some mildly bearish soybean figures.
USDA kept its 2025-26 U.S. ending stocks estimate unchanged at 340 million bushels, contrary to expectations for a small cut. USDA also lowered 2025-26 soybean exports for the second month in a row, dropping its estimate 20 million bushels to 1.51 billion bushels, a 13-year low.
Among global numbers, USDA kept its 2026 soybean harvest estimate for Brazil unchanged at a record 180 million metric tons (6.61 billion bushels) but raised Argentina’s crop by 2 MMT, or 4.2%, to 50 MMT.
Price upside in new-crop soybeans likely will be limited by expectations USDA’s June 30 Acreage report will include a sharp upward revision in bean plantings. Some analysts see plantings rising 1 million to 2 million acres from the 84.7 million acres predicted in March, based on ideas that a war-driven surge in fertilizer costs prompted many farmers to shift land away from corn.
Monday’s weekly USDA crop ratings loom as one price influencer next week. As with corn, traders will likely expect stronger numbers after the past two weeks’ produced underwhelming results.
Last Monday, USDA reported the combined good-to-excellent rating at 65% as of June 7, down from 66% a week earlier and down from 68% a year ago. Analysts were looking for a bump up to about 68%.
Soybean planting in 18 top states advanced to 92% complete as of June 7, up from 87% a week earlier and ahead of the 88% five-year average, USDA reported. About 79% of the crop has emerged, up from 65% a week earlier and ahead of the 71% five-year average.
Also Monday, USDA’s weekly inspections data will be scrutinized for any signs of improvement and any further shipments to China. Soybeans inspected for expected during the week ended June 4 totaled 398,186 MT (14.6 million bushels), down 21% from the previous week and down 29% from the same week a year earlier.
Wheat burdened by weakness in corn, crude oil
July SRW wheat fell 2.25 cents to $5.8450 but was still up 4.5 cents for the week to halt a three-week losing streak.
July HRW wheat fell 0.25 cent to $6.3450 but still posted a gain of 13.75 cents for the week, the first weekly gain in four weeks. July spring wheat fell 1.25 cents to $6.1825, though prices remain near a 3 ½-month intraday low posted Wednesday.
Wheat futures sustained overnight declines as weakness in corn and crude oil outweighed price-friendly numbers in Thursday’s USDA reports. Additionally, stiff export competition also continues to weigh on wheat prices, with U.S. values still trading above those of other top producers, such as Russia.
In its monthly Crop Production report, also released Thursday, USDA estimated the 2026-27 total winter wheat crop at 1.03 billion bushels, down 18 million bushels from its initial forecast in May, down almost 27% from last year’s crop and the smallest since 1965. Analysts expected a figure closer to 1.041 billion bushels.
The hard red winter crop, hit hard by drought, was estimated at 496.9 million bushels, down 18 million bushels from May and down 38% from last year.
In its Supply and Demand report, USDA also reduced projected 2026-27 ending stocks by 18 million bushels to 744 million bushels, down 20% from 2025-26 and a three-year low.
Monday’s weekly Crop Progress report should show further advancement in the winter wheat harvest, while crop ratings likely will remain near historic lows.
USDA said 25% of the U.S. winter wheat crop was in good-to-excellent condition as of June 7, down from 26% a week earlier and down from 54% a year ago. Wheat rated “poor” or “very poor” increased to 46% from 44%.
USDA also said the winter wheat crop was 11% harvested as of June 7, up from 5% a year earlier and above the 6% average for the past five years.
Traders will study weekly USDA inspections Monday for any signs of improvement in new-crop wheat shipments, which have gotten off to a slow start.
USDA reported wheat inspections for the week ended June 4 at 319,730 MT (11.7 million bushels), down 21% from the prior week and down 1.4% from the same week in 2025. For 2026-27 to date, shipments totaled 7.94 million bushels, up 7.4% from the same period a year earlier.
USDA’s weekly Crop Progress update Monday probably will show wheat ratings still sagging near historic lows.