Don’t miss the latest market commentary from the Farm Futures team. Sign up for the complimentary morning and afternoon market newsletters!
Nearly no rain is expected across the Midwest and Plains later this week, which should open the door to fields that were previously rained out of harvest and other critical fall fieldwork. The latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration shows trace amounts only possible in parts of Kansas and Nebraska between Tuesday and Friday.
Later on, NOAA’s new eight- to 14-day outlook calls for a return to seasonally wet weather for the western half of the country between Oct. 26 and Nov. 1, with warmer-than-normal temperatures likely for the central U.S. during this time.
On Wall Street, the Dow made modest inroads of 53 points, reaching 52,055 in afternoon trading, as investors “buy the dip” following cuts to AI stocks in recent sessions. Energy futures were in the red, with Brent crude oil sinking almost 0.75% lower this afternoon to stay above $109 per barrel. Gasoline futures tilted 1.5% lower. The U.S. dollar firmed moderately.
Corn prices crack on demand concerns
A tepid round of export inspection data, coupled with expectations for swifter harvest progress this past week, generated plenty of technical selling on Monday. December futures fell 7.25 cents to $4.67, with March futures down 6 cents to $4.8050.
Corn export inspections slumped to 26.5 million bushels in the week through Oct. 15, which was a weekly decline of almost 49%. That was also well below all trade guesses levied ahead of today’s report. Mexico, Colombia, Italy, Costa Rica and Panama were the top five destinations. Cumulative totals for the 2026-27 marketing year are now at 359.5 million bushels, which is a modest year-over-year decline of 2.3% so far.
Later today, traders will get a fresh peek at the next round of crop progress data from USDA. Last week, harvest progress reached 33% completion through Oct. 11. Ratings moved 2 points higher, with 56% of the crop in good-to-excellent condition over the same period.
A sharp upgrade to Nebraska corn yields contributed to USDA’s surprisingly high numbers in its October World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates report, noted Farm Futures commodities editor Bruce Blythe.
“Extreme heat and dryness ruled the summer [in Nebraska],” he said. “USDA, nonetheless, raised Nebraska’s estimated yield to 188 bpa, up 11 bpa from September, while South Dakota improved 6 bpa, bringing forecast yields there to 151 bpa.”
The October report raised more than a few eyebrows, and Blythe took a closer look at more data points worth paying attention to in his latest Corn Outlook column — click here to learn more.
Brazilian consultancy AgRural reported that the country’s first corn plantings are 48% complete through last Thursday, which is modestly below last year’s pace of 51% so far. Brazilian soybean plantings are modestly ahead of last season’s progress, meantime, with 26% completion through Oct. 15.
Corn settlements on Friday were for 350,513 contracts.
Soybean prices fail to find upside
Prices dipped into the red on Monday morning and were unable to recover, settling with losses of around 0.5% following a round of technical selling today. Traders largely shrugged off two more flash sales announced this morning (more on that below). January futures fell 7 cents to $12.6875, with March futures down 6.5 cents to $12.7775.
The rest of the soy complex also faded lower. December soymeal and soy oil futures were each down more than 0.5% today.
Private exporters announced the sale of 4.2 million bushels of soybeans to China and 9.6 million bushels of soybeans to unknown destinations. Both sales are for delivery during the 2026-27 marketing year, which began Sept. 1.
Soybean export inspections were pleasantly strong after reaching 73.6 million bushels in the week through Oct. 15. That was above all analyst estimates and a week-over-week boost of more than 80%. China, Mexico, Japan, Germany and Vietnam were the top five destinations. Cumulative totals for 2026-27 are now at 263.0 million bushels, which is a year-over-year gain of 55.3 million bushels so far (up 26.6%).
“Worry about rising food prices has gripped markets and traders alike since March when wars in Iran and Ukraine sent crude oil past $100 a barrel. But a surge in inflation could help farmers,” said grain market analyst Bryce Knorr. Why is that so? Knorr builds his case in today’s Ag Marketing IQ blog — click here to learn more.
The latest CFTC report showed speculative funds shedding 14,169 contracts to a new net long position of 237,491 contracts in the week through Oct. 13.
Soybean settlements on Friday were for 390,823 contracts.
Winter wheat prices continue to slide lower
A lackluster round of export inspection data did prices no favors today, which are already under pressure from large domestic and global stocks. Planting progress for winter wheat should accelerate amid drier forecasts as well, adding to the current bearish price sentiment. December Chicago soft red winter wheat futures dropped 5.25 cents to $6.5525, with December Kansas City hard red winter futures down 4.5 cents to $6.9950.
Wheat export inspections were tepid, with only 8.8 million bushels in the week through Oct. 15. That was below the entire set of trade guesses and a week-over-week decline of around 22%. Vietnam, Egypt, Colombia, Japan and Mexico were the top five destinations. Cumulative totals for the 2026-27 marketing year were down 35.6% versus year-ago totals, with 265.2 million bushels.
The latest CFTC report showed managed money adding 3,495 contracts to its position in CBOT wheat, with a new net short of 33,038 contracts. Speculative traders trimmed their net long position in Kansas City wheat by 6,649 contracts down to 17,391 contracts.
CBOT wheat settlements on Friday were for 131,197 contracts.