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Light rains are expected across most of the eastern Corn Belt and Ohio River Valley over the next several days, but very few fields are likely to gather more than a quarter inch between Tuesday and Friday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Later this month, NOAA’s new eight-to-14-day outlook calls for a return to seasonally wet conditions for most of the central U.S. from Nov. 16-22, with warmer-than-normal temperatures likely throughout the Midwest and Plains during this time.
On Wall Street, the Dow jumped 1,094 points higher in afternoon trading to 52,380, fueled by declining crude oil prices and pushing past a bit of a postelection slump. Energy futures were on the decline, with Brent crude oil tilted almost 5.5% lower this afternoon to fall back below $93 per barrel. Gasoline futures shifted more than 4% lower. The U.S. dollar softened moderately.
Corn prices slip into the red
Prices were trimmed by some technical selling that led to losses of 0.5% or more as traders finished squaring positions ahead of tomorrow morning’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. Analysts are still expecting to see total production hovering around 16 billion bushels this season. December futures dropped 2.25 cents to $4.3925, with March futures down 3 cents to $4.5225.
Private exporters announced to USDA the sale of 4.3 million bushels of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2026-27 marketing year, which began Sept. 1.
Corn export inspections reached 35.6 million bushels in the week through Nov. 5, which was fractionally higher than the prior week’s volume. That was also slightly toward the lower end of analyst estimates. Mexico, Colombia, Japan, Spain and Italy were the top five destinations. Cumulative totals for the 2026-27 marketing year have reached 456.4 million bushels, which is a year-over-year decline of almost 16% so far.
A Bloomberg survey of analysts expects to see corn yields trimmed by 0.6 bushel per acre to 180.6 bpa in tomorrow’s USDA WASDE report. That would leave production 54 million bushels lower, to a sliver under 16 billion bushels (15.98 billion). U.S. ending stocks are expected to ease 3 million bushels lower, to 1.846 billion bushels.
The latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) report showed large speculators changing over to a net short position of 22,900 contracts in the week through Nov. 3 after adding an additional 78,843 short contracts to its total position last week.
Corn settlements on Friday were for 456,928 contracts.
Soybean prices follow corn lower
Analysts are expecting to see a modest production boost in tomorrow’s WASDE report, which triggered some technical selling on Monday. Seasonal harvest pressure is still on the table but becoming less of an immediate factor as the 2026 season draws closer to the finish. January futures dropped 5.5 cents to $11.8825, with March futures down 4.25 cents to $11.95.
The rest of the soy complex was mixed. January soymeal futures tracked 0.38% higher, while January soy oil futures trended 0.35% lower.
Soybean export inspections reached 69.7 million bushels in the week through Nov. 5, which was a 25% decline from the prior week’s volume. It was also on the very low end of analyst estimates. China, Mexico, Bangladesh, Taiwan and Italy were the top five destinations. Cumulative totals for the 2026-27 marketing year are now at 519.7 million bushels, jumping 58% higher year over year so far.
A Bloomberg survey of analysts expects USDA to increase its soybean yield estimates by 0.4 bpa to 53.5 bpa in tomorrow’s WASDE report. That would leave production 34 million bushels higher, at 4.596 billion bushels — still a record, if realized. Ending stocks are expected to rise 17 million bushels to 332 million, which would be a 5.4% increase from October.
The latest CFTC report showed large speculators cutting 52,601 contracts from their net long position in the week through Nov. 3, leaving it at a new net long position of 132,799 contracts.
Soybean settlements on Friday were for 262,152 contracts.
Winter wheat prices still struggling to find traction
Prices are still sensitive to large domestic and global stocks, although November’s WASDE report isn’t expected to show any dramatic changes in USDA’s current wheat data. Keep watching action in the Black Sea region, where rumors of peace talks between Ukraine and Russia are still swirling. December Chicago soft red winter wheat futures dropped 3.25 cents to $5.88, while December Kansas City HRW futures held steady at $6.325.
Wheat export inspections reached 9.1 million bushels in the week through Nov. 5, which was more than double the prior week’s volume. Still, that was fractionally below the range of trade guesses. Vietnam, Mexico, Nigeria, Peru and the Philippines were the top five destinations. Cumulative totals for the 2026-27 marketing year have slumped 36% below last year’s pace after reaching 286.7 million bushels.
Ukrainian consultancy APK-Inform raised its estimates for the country’s 2026 wheat production by around 36.7 million bushels after offering a new projection of 973.7 million bushels.
Meantime, Russia’s Sovecon consultancy lowered its estimates for this season’s wheat production by 25.7 million bushels with a new projection of 1.323 billion bushels. Both countries rank among the world’s top wheat exporters but continue to struggle moving grain out of the Black Sea region. Any “credible ceasefire or export-security agreement” will likely increase expectations for better regional grain flows, according to Joe Davis of Futures International.
Turkey issued an international tender to purchase 14.7 million bushels of wheat, likely sourced from the Black Sea region, that closes on Nov. 17. Shipment terms will be confirmed once the tender closes.
The latest CFTC report showed large speculators increasing their net short position for CBOT wheat by 13,867 contracts, with a new short position of 88,726 contracts in the week through Nov. 3.
CBOT wheat settlements on Friday were for 256,141 contracts.
And finally, should you buy farm equipment now or wait? Delays could prove risky if interest rates keep rising, and used equipment sales have been relatively swift.
“The best advice I can give producers is: Find what you’re looking for, talk to your tax accountant, and make a really well-informed decision,” said Greg Roberg, vice president of sales at AgDirect. “Producers who need equipment should be looking at what is available now that might fit their operation and their budget.” Click here to learn more.