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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.

What we’re watching

Soybean futures whipsawed sharply overnight as traders monitored a meeting between President Trump and China’s Xi Jinping. Buyers were encouraged after Trump said China will buy a “tremendous” amount of U.S. soybeans, but details were light and markets remain skeptical. “I expect choppy markets to continue until we see actual cargoes purchased,” one trader said.

Corn eases from four-month high

December corn was unchanged at $4.34 per bushel late overnight after earlier rising to $4.37, the contract’s highest intraday price since $4.4225 on July 3. Futures posted gains in five of the past six days and are up about 24 cents from a six-week intraday low of $4.0925 in mid-October.

Corn futures traded in a wide range overnight as the market was pulled back and forth by a volatile soybean market. Corn retains a supportive near-term technical posture, though December futures faded after testing the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) around $4.37 overnight. Funds have been active buyers, reportedly adding about 21,000 corn futures contracts the first three days of this week. Farmer selling has accelerated somewhat this week, limiting price upside.

Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price rose about 3 cents Wednesday to $3.9450, near a four-month high. The cash average was about 39.5 cents below December futures, down from 40.75 cents a week earlier.

Markets were encouraged by reports from Trump’s meeting with Xi in South Korea. China agreed to pause export controls on rare earths, while the U.S. will immediately lower fentanyl tariffs from 20% to 10%. China also agreed to resume purchases of U.S. soybeans. The meeting’s outcome was broadly in line with market expectations.

Corn prices remain underpinned by strength in cash markets, robust exports and expectations yields will be revised lower. Dry conditions expected for much of the Midwest the rest of the week should allow for the harvest to near conclusion.

The ongoing government shutdown means another missed weekly USDA export sales report, but analysts believe corn demand remained strong. Traders surveyed by Reuters expected net corn sales ranged from 1.1 million to 2.1 million metric tons (43.3 million to 82.7 million bushels) during the week ended October 23.

Based on weekly export inspections data, which USDA is still reporting, U.S. corn shipments for the 2025-26 marketing year through October 23 totaled 414.7 million bushels, up 58% from the same period in 2024-25 and 12.3% of USDA’s record full-year projection for 2.975 billion bushels.

U.S. ethanol producers dialed back slightly last week but continued to run near a record pace.

On Wednesday, the Energy Information Administration said nationwide ethanol production averaged 1.091 million barrels a day during the week ended October 24, down 1.9% from a four-month high the previous week. During the past four weeks, production averaged 1.087 million barrels a day, up 2.5% from the same period in 2024.

Nationwide ethanol stocks rose 2.3% last week to 21.9 million barrels, up 2.7% from a year earlier.

Farm industry struggles aren’t confined only to the U.S. Banco do Brasil SA, the biggest lender to Brazil’s ag industry, is threatening to stop making loans to farmers who file for bankruptcy protection as a wave of defaults hits the nation’s rural regions. The bank’s profit slump is one of the clearest signs of trouble facing both farmers and banks in one of the world’s top ag producers.

Soybeans volatile overnight

January soybeans surged 9 cents to $11.0350 late overnight after earlier jumping to $11.1450, the highest intraday price for a most-active contract since July 2024. January futures are up about 84 cents, or 8.2%, from about $10.20 at the end of September.

Soybean futures whipped wildly up and down overnight as traders monitored Trump-Xi trade talks, with January futures trading in an unusually wide 44-cent range. Funds have bought heavily in soybean futures this week, with purchases totaling 41,000 contracts through Wednesday.

Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price rose about 2.25 cents Wednesday to $10.1250, the highest since early July. The price was about 67.75 cents below November futures, compared to 72.25 cents a week earlier.

Results from the Trump-Xi meeting were encouraging for soybean market bulls, with China apparently ready to return to the U.S. market after avoiding purchases for the past several months.

China will start buying soybeans immediately, Trump said in comments to reporters after talks with Xi in South Korea on Thursday but he did not provide any additional details. The Chinese commerce ministry said later that the two countries had agreed to expand agricultural trade, without making a specific reference to soybeans.

China may have agreed to purchase as much as 12.5 MMT (459.3 million bushels) of U.S. beans this year and 25 MMT for the next three years, according to StoneX analyst Matt Zeller, who cited reports from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessett. For comparison, China bought about 841 million bushels in 2024-25.

Net U.S. soybean sales during the week ended October 16 were an estimated 600,000 metric tons to 1.6 MMT (22 million to 58.8 million), based on the Reuters survey. USDA inspections data Monday showed U.S. shipments for 2025-26 so far at 246.7 million bushels, down 37% from the same period in 2024-25 and a 17-year low for the marketing year to date, according to StoneX.

Elsewhere, Argentina “will continue to experience a good alternating pattern of rain and sunshine during the next two weeks, although some of the precipitation will be lighter than usual,” World Weather Inc. said.

In Brazil, rain “will improve in center-west and center-south crop areas this weekend through all of next week,” the forecaster added. “The moisture should induce better planting, emergence and establishment conditions for soybeans and first season corn.”

Wheat lower overnight

December SRW wheat futures fell 4.75 cents to $5.2750 late overnight after earlier touching $5.3550, the contract’s highest intraday price since $5.3575 on September 17. Futures added 3.25 cents Wednesday for a fifth gain in the past six days.

Wheat futures’ strengthening charts continue to bolster confidence the market may have finally established a near-term bottom, with December SRW futures up over 35 cents from a contract low at $4.9225 on October 14.

Wheat futures eased overnight in a corrective pullback from recent sharp gains fueled by strength in corn and soybeans. Prices should stay underpinned by strong export demand and potential weather concerns in HRW wheat country.

Net U.S. wheat exports during the week ended October 23 ranged from 350,000 MT to 600,000 MT (12.9 million to 22 million bushels), based on the Reuters survey. For 2025-26 to date, wheat shipments totaled 421.2 million bushels, 19% above the same period in 2024-25 and a 12-year high for this point of the marketing year, which began June 1.

In Plains HRW wheat country, dry-biased weather the next 10 days “will continue to be great for late-season fieldwork to advance,” World Weather said.

“However, greater rainfall would benefit western production areas of the region,” the forecaster added. “More widespread freezes in central and western areas are expected this week and are normal for this time of year. The cold air isn’t expected to be a problem.”

Dry weekend ahead for Midwest

The rest of the week should be mostly dry for the Plains and Midwest, with only trace amounts of precipitation seen for the Dakotas, Minnesota and Wisconsin today through Sunday, based on NOAA’s 72-hour precipitation map. Any exception may be the far eastern Corn Belt, where southeastern Indiana and Ohio may receive rains of 0.25 inch to as much as 2 inches.

Next month, the central U.S. will shift warmer and drier during the first two weeks of November, with the National Weather Service’s 6-to-10-day and 8-to-14-day outlooks both expanding potential for above-normal temperatures across the Plains and most of the Corn Belt. The 6-to-10-day outlook, which covers November 4-8, calls for an expansion of below-normal precipitation prospects from the Plains into much of the western and central Corn Belt.

Stock index futures flat overnight

Stock index futures were little changed overnight as investors processed reports from the meeting between President Trump and Xi Jinping and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut announced Wednesday. As expected, the Fed lowered its benchmark funds rate by 25 basis points for the second consecutive month.

Futures based on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 indexes were both flat, while Dow futures fell about 0.2%. The U.S. dollar index was also little changed.