In its old-crop sunflower seed stocks report, USDA pegged old-crop sunflower stocks in all positions on Sept. 1 at 209 million pounds, down 63% from a year ago. All stocks stored on farms totaled 21.1 million pounds, and off-farm stocks totaled 187.8 million pounds.
Stocks of oil-type sunflower seed are 170.6 million pounds. Of this total, 15.4 million pounds are on-farm stocks, and 155.2 million pounds are off-farm stocks. Non-oil sunflower stocks totaled 38.4 million pounds, with 5.9 million pounds stored on the farm and 32.5 million pounds stored off the farm.
Stocks of oil-type sunflower seed were 66% lower than last year and in line with trade expectations. Non-oil stocks were down 44% from last year and also in line with industry estimates.
The most interesting item in the report was the change to the March 1 off-farm stocks figure for oil-type seed. USDA “found” an additional 75 million pounds since the report was released. This helps explain the increased crush and birdfood usage when most thought the bins were almost empty.
What’s next?
According to the latest USDA Farm Service Agency crop acreage report, area planted to sunflower in 2025 increased 78% from 2024 and totals more than 1.28 million acres. The planted area of oil-type varieties, at more than 1.18 million acres, is up 99% from 2024. Planted acreage of non-oil varieties, estimated at 98,545 acres, is down 16% from last year. Initial estimates of total oil and non-oil sunflower production are in a range of 2.2 billion to 2.3 billion pounds, which is about 96% higher than last year’s crop. USDA will release its final acreage and production estimates in January.
Most of the sunflower crop has been rated in the good to excellent categories throughout the growing season. This should mean that yields will be above trend assuming normal weather through the rest of this harvest season. Initial yield reports have been positive, and quality is generally very good.
Depending on the size of the 2025 crop, seed prices could drift lower as harvest deliveries arrive at plants and farmers pick up the selling pace in the next couple of months. After the initial harvest delivery period, prices will follow demand news.
U.S. producers also are looking at crop options for 2026. As of this mid-October writing, crushers are offering 2026 new-crop cash high-oleic contracts at about $22.70 to $22.80 per cwt, with act of God contracts at $22.20 to $23.
Something else to consider is the oil premiums that crush plants pay on sunflower. Sunflower is the only oilseed that pays premiums for oil content above 40%. Consider oil premiums that are offered at the crush plants on oil content above 40% at a rate of 2% price premium for each 1% of oil above 40%. This pushes a contract with 45% oil content gross return 10% higher per cwt. The AOG $22.20 contract increases to $24.40, and the cash $22.80 contract moves up to $25.10.
To keep up with price movement, go to sunflowernsa.com. Follow on X @NatlSunflower.