With global sunflower shortages creating unprecedented market opportunities and U.S. production potentially doubling, farmers who haven't considered sunflowers in recent years could be missing out on what may become their most profitable crop option for 2026.
Per Oil World, global sunflower production for 2025-2026 is estimated at 56.96 million metric tons, reflecting a recovery of only 1.6 MMT from last year’s low level. Back in June, initial production estimates were in the range of 60 to 61 MMT.
Dropping below expectations
Sunflower seed production is turning out sharply below earlier expectations, primarily in the Black Sea region. Oil World made downward revisions for Russia, Ukraine and some European Union member countries due to reports about considerably lower-than-expected yields per hectare.
Harvesting started late and still was running sizably behind last year in Russia and Ukraine. Sunflower production in the EU also is not reaching expectations. Harvest was not complete, but yield reports resulted in Oil World reducing its production estimate to only 8.56 MMT, the smallest in nine years, and down slightly from last year’s drought at 8.67 MMT.
Heat and dryness curbed yields and production for the second consecutive year. Currently, the estimate for Argentina’s sunflower seed crop is at 5.5 MMT for early 2026. A sharp increase since summer in export quotes for sunflower seed and oil reflects the tighter global market situation. Given the location of the crop losses, this bears watching, as international trade would assume much of the impact and could open some opportunities for U.S. exports.
More data to come
USDA was scheduled to release the first sunflower production estimate in its October supply and demand report, but that report was not released due to the government shutdown. It was largely expected that USDA’s sunflower yield estimate would imply record or near-record yields.
In June, USDA had forecasted a 48% increase in oil sunflower-planted acres and an 8% decline in non-oil sunflower-planted acres. Total planted acres were pegged at 998,000. According to the September USDA Farm Service Agency crop acreage report, area planted to sunflower in 2025 increased 78% from 2024 and totaled over 1.28 million acres.
The planted area of oil-type varieties, at 1.18 million acres, is up 99% from 2024. Planted acreage of non-oil varieties, estimated at 98,545 acres, is down 16% from last year. Initial estimates using FSA figures and trend yields have total oil and non-oil sunflower production in a range of 2.2 billion to 2.3 billion pounds, which is about 96% higher than last year’s crop. Traders are hopeful that USDA will release its final acreage and production estimates in January.
With harvest wrapped up in the Northern Hemisphere, traders’ attention will turn to the Southern Hemisphere. There are thoughts that oilseed production numbers for South America might be too high based on the developing La Niña.
If any major weather damage occurs to South American crops, it will be very bullish for new-crop values in the U.S. If you haven’t considered growing sunflowers for a few years, take another look, and you’ll be surprised how this crop’s genetics have changed.
As you prepare your crop budgets for this year, sunflowers might be your most profitable crop in 2026. To find confection and oil sunflower buyers to talk about contracting opportunities, check out sunflowernsa.com. Follow us on X @NatlSunflower.