Wherever traders post calendars — on walls, cell phones or computers — they circle a few key dates:
- Grain Stocks in early January
- Prospective Plantings at the end of March
- Crop Production in August
That last one now looms. The Crop Production report, due Aug. 12 this year, is USDA’s first survey of farmers and their fields. Though it provides the agency’s first real look at 2026 crop expectations, it is, after all, just a starting point. The size of 2026 corn and soybean crops almost certainly will change before final estimates are printed in September 2027. But until the August numbers drop, thoughts about production are only opinions — guesses really. USDA’s projections aren’t perfect by any measure but at least are made with a modicum of statistical rigor.
Just as hard to predict as yields and acreage is how markets will react to the findings. Some years traders lean into the report with bullish bents, only to suffer when numbers aren’t as friendly as expected. Other times big changes are the consensus, but USDA mostly keeps its powder dry until more is known about yields in September and subsequent reports.
Limit moves, both up and down, are not out of the question the day following the news, and week-later changes can be staggering. Cash corn has been known to gain 45 cents the day of, only to lose a like amount in the week after. Cash soybeans lost $1.80 in tumultuous 2009 trading.
Unusual growing seasons suffering from drought, floods or frost make predictions even more fraught. Historical comparisons also must navigate government shutdowns, funding lapses and even technology. Back in the 1970s and 1980s a few headline numbers rattled to life over wire service teletype machines, but much of the data was only available by snail mail in printed booklets shipped out of Washington. Talk about the good old days!
Watch for patterns
Despite these limitations, a few patterns are discernable.
Reversion to mean. While year-to-year can be huge, these shifts tend to average out over time. In the 53 years from 1973 to 2025, moves by December corn futures added up to an average of just less than a penny, and the median was a loss of a quarter-cent. November soybeans dropped an average of 2.25 cents over this period, with the median change smack dab at zero — there were as many up years as down ones, with one tie.
Following suit. Corn and soybeans don’t always trade in tandem, but comparing price changes between the two crops is a good starting point since they account for up to 45% of each other’s difference.
Supply and demand also factor in, especially for soybeans. Moves for both crops the day after the reports inversely correlate with how tight stocks could get over the course of the marketing year. That is, the tighter the projected supply, the bigger the price reactions in August tend to be, and vice versa. However, changes a day after the report on average are the strongest, with markets quieting down in the week after.
Prepare for market movement
So, what’s the best way to prepare for decision day?
Make sure you can handle a surprise, however unlikely it may seem. The day-after range for corn has swung from a loss of 7% to a gain of 5.5%, with week-after changes from down 11.5% to up 10%. Soybeans are just as volatile, with day-after changes from down 7% to up 7%, and week-after trade from down 13% to up 8%.
Base predictions on more than the view out your window (however pretty that may be). And recognize the limitations of any forecasts.
Both corn and soybean conditions declined over the past month but still look on track for decent yields. Vegetation Health Index maps translate into an average U.S. corn yield at 182.6 bushels per acre, fractionally lower than the 183 bpa benchmark USDA has incorporated so far in 2026. The soybean VHI translates to a 53.2 bpa yield, also within spitting distance of the USDA print in July.
Crop Progress metrics published Monday also look average or better. Soybeans are at 51.9 bpa to 54.2 bpa, with corn running 183.9 bpa.
