We’re closing the books on one of the best sorghum crops in history. According to USDA, we’re on track for the second-highest yield ever at 75 bushels per acre. Anyone who has been around the crop for any length of time knows how hard it is to achieve a national average yield this high.
It took good management, timely rains and, of course, gritty farmers’ expertise at navigating one of the harshest production environments in North America. As a result, a big crop should feel like a celebration. This one does, but there’s definitely anxiety about the growing piles of grain across the Sorghum Belt.
We’ve known for years that sorghum needs more homes. The export story tells that clearly.
We once depended heavily on China — just a couple years ago, in fact. That trade has fallen by more than 90% this year, which leaves us with a gap that can’t be filled by hope.
India has potential, but cracking that market will take steady effort and patience. We’re optimistic with current discussions, but we’ll need policy action coupled with robust market development efforts going forward.
The good news is the world needs grain. Trade uncertainty aside, we run the world grain and oilseed balance sheets very tightly, so the fundamentals are strong if we can make it past the challenges of today.
U.S. market outlook
We need markets here at home as well. That’s why ethanol matters so much right now.
Sorghum is back in ethanol plants in a big way, and the fuel market is finally giving the crop its chance to shine. Ethanol plants in Kansas and Texas — and even a couple in places like Nebraska and South Dakota — are leaning on sorghum again, with some grinding it exclusively.
The proposed blending targets for 2026 and 2027 send a strong signal that domestic demand is headed in the right direction. The numbers suggest that the U.S. will need more gallons, not fewer, and more gallons always means more grain. Now, we just need a timely finalization of those targets.
The industry also continues to gain ground with E15. Access to higher blends is so close to becoming a year-round nationwide reality that it almost feels within reach. More stations are selling it every month, and drivers are warming to it.
The policy conversations in Washington seem to have shifted from whether we should adopt E15 to when. A market that size would help absorb a crop like the one we just raised. It also would stabilize demand in years when exports soften.
Like with the blending targets, the timeline for a move to year-round access seems to be slipping, but like grain demand, the fundamentals are strong. Ethanol is the cheapest source of octane we have, and consumers battered by the higher prices of the last few years are eager for a break at the pump. That bodes well for E15.
Looking ahead
Farmers are paying attention to the opportunity created by clean fuel markets as well. The Section 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit rewards ethanol plants for lowering carbon intensity, and sorghum fits that paradigm well.
Sorghum thrives on less water and fertilizer, and farmers across the Sorghum Belt already rely on no-till and reduced tillage. Those practices matter because they bring down the carbon score of the finished fuel, and in doing so create a pathway for farmers to share in the value once plants begin claiming the credit.
This year reminded us what sorghum can deliver, and it also showed how close we are to opening the doors that will carry the crop forward.
The work on exports, year-round access to E15, blending targets and low carbon fuel markets is setting the stage for a stronger demand picture, and the progress made in 2025 positions us well for the future.
If 2026 brings the follow-throughs we expect, the markets we’ve been preparing for finally will begin to fully match the kind of crop we know how to grow.