USDA is forecasting global sunflower seed production for 2025-2026 at 51.77 million metric tons, down 1% from 2024-2025. Back in June, initial production estimates were in the range of 60 to 61 MMT.
Lower production in Ukraine is the leading factor for the decrease. Ukrainian sunflower production estimates remain murky due to the ongoing war, but production is expected to be about 19% lower than in 2024. The European Union and Turkey are expected to have lower than average production as well.
Ending global sunflower seed stocks are expected to be 2.8 MMT, which is 4% lower than last year and 13% lower than two years ago.
The 2025-2026 global sunflower crush is estimated to reach 47.4 MMT, which is about equal to last marketing year. Global sunflower oil production also is expected to be about equal to 2024-2025 at 20 MMT.
Total world sunflower oil exports are anticipated to be 12.8 MMT, a decrease of 4% from the 2024-2025 marketing year. Ending global sunflower oil stocks are projected to decline by a whopping 15% to 2.28 MMT by the end of September 2026. This is the lowest level in many years.
At crush plants, sunflower prices are significantly higher than they were a year ago at this time. Reduced 2024 production, tight seed stocks and strong demand have crush plants searching for seed supplies.
Birdfood prices also have had some upward movement in some locations after being somewhat quiet. If tough winter conditions set in, birdfood prices could rally.
A look ahead
Looking to 2026 new crop, high-oleic sunflower prices are expected to be aggressive in the next few months as the industry tries to secure 2026 production. Oil-type sunflower acres returned to average historical levels in 2025. Crushers will want to maintain this momentum and potentially add more acres given current oil demand.
When looking at new-crop sunflower prices and crop budgets, producers need to consider the value of oil premiums paid on oil-type sunflowers. Oil premiums are offered at crush plants on oil content above 40% at a rate of 2% price premium for each 1% of oil above 40%. For example, 45% oil content results in a 10% price premium, which pushes gross returns from oil sunflower even higher.
Once again, 2026 will be another challenging year in terms of marketing commodities. Margins will be tighter, so producers are going to have to buckle down and watch their marketing in the year ahead. They also will have to sharpen their pencil when it comes to figuring out the bottom line, as crops that were profitable last year may not be in 2026.
In the months ahead, price direction will be determined mainly by export demand news and South American oilseed production prospects. The U.S. dollar continues to stay strong against other currencies, and this could lead to a slowdown in exports as importers look for cheaper sources of product.
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