Two USDA reports will be released this month: the January Cattle on Feed and the highly anticipated Cattle Inventory report, said David Anderson, Texas A&M AgriLife Extension livestock marketing economist.
In a recent Southern Ag Today article, Anderson discussed report expectations, key points to consider and possible market implications of each.
Cattle on Feed report
The Cattle on Feed report, set to be released Jan. 23, includes an extra slaughter day because of the alignment of weekends and holidays in December.
“That extra day shows up in prereport estimates of increased marketings for the month,” Anderson said. “December marketings are expected to be about 2% higher than December 2024. Daily average marketings should have lagged behind last year, which is to be expected with fewer cattle on feed.”
There are expected to be fewer feedlot placement feeders than a year ago, and prereport estimates are down about 5%, he noted. Comparing December placements reflects the Mexico border closure, with no cattle imported in December 2024 and 2025.
“This is the first full month of comparison with no imports for a month in either year. Large declines in placements during 2025 included the impact of no Mexican feeder cattle, so in coming months, year-over-year placements will indicate changes in domestic feeder cattle placements,” Anderson said.
Larger marketings combined with smaller placements leaves the cattle on feed numbers likely down more than 2% on Jan. 1, compared with Jan. 1, 2025. The report will also include the heifers on feed estimate. “This may be the most anticipated number in the report as evidence of any heifer retention for herd growth,” Anderson said.
Annual cattle inventory report
The U.S. Cattle Inventory Report, released by the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service, is set for Jan. 30. Anderson expects this report to provide insights into herd rebuilding and indicate whether the cattle cycle has reached its lowest point, which signals growth.
“I tend to focus on the beef cow herd and heifers held for beef cow replacement more than other data points in the report,” he noted.
Preliminary estimates indicate a cow herd number similar to the one a year ago. “Beef cow slaughter during 2025 was down almost 20% compared to the year before, and that is low enough for a slight increase in cow numbers. High calf prices certainly provided an incentive to try to get one more calf out of older cows before culling them,” Anderson said.
As for cow herd growth, there is “little hard evidence” of heifer retention. Anderson listed the following as contributing factors to low herd growth expectations:
- continued high heifer slaughter
- a large number of heifers on feed as a percent of all cattle on feed
- very low heifer numbers held last year to enter the herd
- a historically small calf crop
The dairy herd, on the other hand, is likely to show the largest number of cows since the early 1990s. In the coming months, Anderson noted his curiosity regarding the number of potential placement stockers on small grain pastures. “The number of all cattle will be interesting as a historical number for the cattle cycle,” he said.