The 2025 marketing year for hard red winter wheat shows persistent price weakness despite favorable crop quality and significantly improved export volumes.
Wheat prices face downward pressure from abundant global supplies and intense international competition. Prices reached multiyear lows during the year, though growing export commitments provided some support to producers navigating one of the most challenging price environments in recent history.
As planning for the 2025 crop got underway during summer 2024, the prices seen over the last few growing seasons over $7 fell away. Despite a rally in April and May on prospective crop issues in the July 2025 hard red winter wheat harvest contract, prices fell below $6 in late July 2024 and stayed subdued into the early fall.
Planting progressed near historical averages, reaching 97% completion by November 2024. However, many areas faced dry planting conditions. An expansion of drought conditions across winter wheat production areas from September into early November raised significant concerns about crop establishment heading into winter dormancy.
Weather in November turned things around. Heavy precipitation saw crop conditions improve dramatically and give the crop some needed moisture heading into winter.
As 2025 began, market conditions improved and saw the July contract approach $6.50 in mid-February. The market response was short-lived, and price dropped to as low as $5.08 on May 12 as trade uncertainty and positive crop prospects came into focus. Timely late-spring rains helped fields rebound from earlier drought stress. Harvest ran later than normal due to frequent storms across key regions, but quality concerns proved minimal, and most disease pressures stayed localized.
Price pressures continued into late 2025. The season-average farm price for 2025-26 is projected at just $5 per bushel, down 30 cents from earlier forecasts and well below recent years (see table). December 2025 future price hit $4.88 on Oct. 14, a multiyear low, pressured by large global crops and abundant corn supplies. Despite strong export performance, domestic wheat prices remain under pressure from record global production levels.
Looking ahead
Growth in ending stock levels both domestically and globally keep prices in a somewhat narrow band, between $5.40 and $5.70, on the July 2026 harvest contract. The poor market conditions hung over preparation for the 2026 crop.
In many instances, the preparation for this year mirrors the last without the dramatic improvement in crop conditions during November. Winter wheat progress by the end of November came in like previous years’ benchmarks for planting and crop emergence. While crop conditions lagged behind last year’s levels, recent rains saw some improvement in conditions with the crop heading into dormancy.
Speculation on winter grazing impacting harvest rates and yields remains in place for the 2026 crop, like in previous years. Despite the strong market conditions for cattle, these issues never materialized in the previous crop. Lower prices generate speculation on a loss of winter wheat acres for 2026 with market observers indicating acreage levels flat to down 2%. It remains to be seen if those expectations are met, given policy incentives and low prices for other crops.
Trade policy could be major focus
Trade policy emerged as a major issue in 2025. Tariff policies injected uncertainty into international trade, and the uncertainty spilled into agricultural commodity markets.
Expanding ag exports remains a major topic of discussion for the Trump administration. Maintaining relationships and market access is crucial to the wheat market. U.S. wheat exports for 2025-26 are forecast at 900 million bushels, the highest in five years and up 25 million bushels from earlier projections.
This export strength is occurring despite headwinds from global competition and market pressures. Hard red winter wheat has shown resilience, with exports forecast at 275 million bushels for 2025-26, leading all wheat classes and representing a 26% increase from the previous year.
Strong competitive pricing and demand have supported hard red winter wheat exports, even as the U.S. remains the fifth-largest global wheat exporter, behind Russia, the European Union, Canada and Australia. Trade policy and tariff considerations continue to influence export commitments, particularly as the Trump administration shapes its approach to international trade.
The ability to maintain competitive prices and build on the recent momentum in exports will be influenced by trade negotiations under the present tariff policies and the renegotiation of United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement during 2026.
The combination of record global production, trade policy uncertainty and intense international competition creates one of the most challenging price environments in recent history. Wheat producers navigating the next crop year require a focus on cost management and efficiency, as the path forward remains challenging.