U.S. wheat growers enter the final months of a tumultuous 2026 facing the same tangle of complexities and questions that whipped grain markets to and fro much of the past year.
No easy or obvious answers are available. It’s been a tough year marred by drought, war-driven volatility and weak-trending demand. But hope glimmers for higher (and potentially profitable) wheat prices. With winter wheat planting season nearing, here are a few key questions that may factor into market direction and producers’ plans:
What about war? By late summer, Middle East hostilities appeared to be cooling, at least temporarily. Russia-Ukraine is a different matter. The two sides spent much of the summer exchanging drone and missile strikes, some of which disrupted grain shipments out of Black Sea ports and the Sea of Azov, part of a route that handles a third of Russia’s grain exports.
The conflict escalated through early August, with Russia attacking rail and bridge networks connecting Ukraine to Danube River ports. That’s kept global grain trade on edge, with U.S. hard red winter wheat futures hovering not far off a three-year high ($7.77 per bushel) posted in July. The Black Sea situation, as one analyst summed it up, is a “mess.” More bad headlines could easily lift the market above $8 or higher.
Will the Southern Plains drought break? Kansas gained much-needed moisture relief over the summer, but much of the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles remained under moderate to extreme drought conditions through early August, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Extended forecasts suggested stronger moisture potential for the Southern Plains, which could encourage farmers as planting season approaches. A StoneX survey in early August indicated Kansas wheat acres could increase 3%.
Will U.S. wheat planted acres find a bottom? Will production rebound? There are reasons to think both can happen in 2027. With U.S. plantings of all wheat varieties coming off the lowest level on record (42.7 million acres), there’s little where else to go but up.
One factor is that already-expensive fertilizer, driven sky-high by war disruptions, could be even pricier in 2027. That could discourage corn planting and push farmers into less fertilizer-intensive crops. In Kansas, of all places, corn plantings actually topped wheat in 2026 for the first time (7.05 million acres to 6.9 million acres). The pendulum may be about to swing back.
As for production, an increase in plantings could help replenish domestic supplies in 2027 after Plains drought devastated this year’s crop, shrinking the winter wheat harvest to 990.5 million bushels, down 29% from 2025 and the smallest since 1963.
What could improve export demand? U.S. wheat exports got off to a sluggish start in the 2026-27 marketing year, with shipments during the first two months of the year down 27% from the same period a year earlier. But it’s possible some combination of extended Black Sea disruptions, El Nino-related yield losses in Australia and drought losses in Europe could prompt importers to increasingly seek out U.S. wheat. The global balance sheet is getting snugger, with stockpiles expected to contract over 2% in 2027, based on a USDA forecast.