Corn futures rallied near three-week highs and soybeans also climbed after USDA lowered its yield estimates more than expected, illustrating the deleterious impact of extreme heat and dryness in parts of the Midwest this summer. USDA also signaled a sharp tightening in corn stockpiles next year with strong demand helping absorb what’s expected to be the second largest crop on record.
In its Crop Production report today, USDA cut its estimate for average 2026 U.S. corn yields to 180.7 bushels per acre (bpa), down from 183 bpa previously and short of the average analyst estimate at 182.4 bpa. Soybean yields were pegged at 52.7 bpa, down from USDA’s previous 53-bpa projection and slightly under the 52.9 bpa average estimate (see full USDA tables below).
Corn and soybean futures both soared to double-digit gains in the wake of the report’s release. But bullish impact was blunted to some extent by boosts to planted acreage that resulted in stronger-than-expected production, including a record soybean crop. USDA hiked estimated combined corn and soybean plantings by nearly 2.8 million acres from the agency’s June forecast.
“The biggest outlier in today’s numbers was the increase in planted acres for both corn and soybeans,” said Kaden Sweeney, hedging strategist at AgMarket.Net. “That’s what is keeping a lid on the market today post-report. Without this acre increase, corn would likely be up 25 to 30 cents.”
USDA boosted corn plantings by 1.39 million acres to 96.73 million acres, down from 98.79 million acres in 2025 but still the third biggest planted acreage figure since 1940. These “found” acres “equate to roughly about 250 million bushels of corn that we didn’t know we had before,” Sweeney said.
The lower-than-expected corn yield may offset added bushels on the overall balance sheet, Sweeney added. “But if for some reason yield works its way back up to trend, those added acres begin to matter a lot,” he said. “It’s definitely a bearish tilt on what was overall a bullish yield report.”
December corn futures rose 20.25 cents to $4.8075 per bushel, the contract’s highest close since July 24. November soybeans rose 14.5 cents to $11.8315 but finished over 15 cents of the high. September SRW wheat jumped 22.5 cents to $6.5275, near a two-week high.
Higher acres lead to bigger than expected production
The August Crop Production report, which includes the first farmer survey-based estimates of the season for corn and soybeans, is typically one of the most anticipated and market-moving USDA reports of the year. The estimates were based in part on surveys of about 14,500 producers between July 25 and August 5, USDA said.
USDA didn’t provide specifics on reasons behind the higher corn and soybean acres. But it’s likely that acreage certification data collected by USDA’s Farm Service and Risk Management agencies in recent weeks showed farmers planted more of both crops than what was forecast in June.
The higher plantings resulted in corn and soybean production outlooks that surpassed trade expectations. USDA hiked its corn harvest estimate 13 million bushels to 16.013 billion bushels, while soybeans were raised 44 million bushels to a record 4.519 billion bushels, up 6% from 2025 and topping the previous record 4.464 billion bushels reaped in 2021.
USDA’s unexpectedly low corn yield seemed to confirm beliefs that extreme heat and dryness in parts of the Midwest during the crop’s critical pollination phase in July likely pinched yield potential. This year’s estimated yield would mark a sharp slide from a record 186.5 bpa in 2025.
The 2.3 bpa drop in the average “is a substantial move, but it's important to note production actually went up due to an increase in acres,” said Jeremy McCann, farmer relations manager with Farmer’s Keeper. “Fortunately, demand was revised higher as well so that keeps wind in bullish sails.”
Looking ahead, the weather forecast for August and September “is anything but bullish, with cooler temperatures and ample rainfall, so it will be interesting to see if this crop continues to ‘decrease’ in size,” McCann added.
Strong demand foundation continues into 2026-27
Even with the larger acreage and expected production, farmers could find reason for price optimism in USDA’s month Supply and Demand report, which indicated strong demand will continue into 2027 and help shrink burdensome supplies.
U.S. corn supplies at the end of the 2026-27 marketing year were lowered to 1.653 billion bushels, down 137 million bushels from last month’s forecast and down 292 million bushels, or 15%, from 2025-26. Stocks at the close of the 2025-26 marketing year at the end of this month were cut 75 million bushels to 1.945 billion bushels, reflecting another hike in exports.
USDA raised its estimate for U.S. corn exports for the sixth time over the past year amid robust demand from Mexico and other top importers. Exports for 2025-26 are now seen at a record 3.4 billion bushels, up 75 million bushels from USDA’s previous figure. USDA also raised its 2026-27 export forecast by 75 million bushels, to 3.275 billion bushels.
A stronger soybean crop prompted USDA to increase estimated 2026-27 ending stocks by 10 million bushels to 320 million bushels. But the agency also lowered 2025-26 ending stocks by 5 million bushels to 325 million bushels.
USDA sustains rally after uneventful USDA numbers
Wheat futures had already rallied overnight before USDA released the reports and sustained sharp gains through today’s trade, fueled by concerns over war-related disruptions to shipping in the Black Sea, a key grain export hub. Two of Russia's biggest grain terminals at the southern port of Novorossiysk suspended operations as a result of overnight Ukrainian drone strikes, Reuters reported today.
Today’s numbers as a whole leaned neutral-bearish for U.S. wheat prices. USDA lowered its estimate for 2026 production of all varieties of U.S. wheat by 5 million bushels to 1.531 billion bushels, smaller than analysts’ expectations for a cut of about 11 million bushels.
Winter wheat production was lowered about 585,000 bushels to 989.9 million bushels, also a smaller-than-expected cut but still down 29% from 2025 and the weakest harvest since 1963. U.S. stocks at the end of 2026-27 were trimmed 5 million bushels to 717 million bushels, a three-year low. Global 2026-27 ending stocks were raised about 41,000 metric tons to 273.3 million metric tons, still down 2.5% from 2025-26.
The following are summaries of key numbers from today’s Crop Production and Supply and Demand reports:
