During the month of July, November 2026 soybean futures soared nearly $1.25, only to have most of that gain wiped away in recent weeks due to better U.S. Midwest precipitation. Will soybeans have another chance at a rally before year-end?
What’s happened
Soybean futures have been on a wild price ride since spring. The November 2026 contract peaked near $12 in May, fell to the $11.25 price area during June, then sprang higher to around $12.50 price in July due to weather concerns. Prices recently retreated to the $11.75 neighborhood. Those volatile price swings provide both risk and reward.
Where to from here? The recent August 2026 USDA report had a neutral to slightly negative tone for soybeans, confirming that short-term U.S. and global supplies are sufficient for now.
Looking at a breakdown of the recent report, the USDA lowered yield potential for the crop growing now to 52.7 bushels per acre, down from 53 bpa last month. However, the agency offset that yield reduction by increasing planted acres of soybeans. Planted acres are now pegged at 86.8 million acres, up from 85.4 million acres previously. Harvested acres are estimated to be 85.8 million acres, up from 84.4 million acres last month. The net result was an overall increase in production for the 2026-27 crop year to 4.519 billion bushels, up from 4.475 billion bushels last month.
The bright note continues to be strong demand for U.S. soybeans. On the demand side, the USDA stood firm in its export demand number of 1.66 billion bushels, meaning they feel China will commit to buying the 25 mmt they are expected to purchase. The USDA did increase demand for domestic crush. Crush demand for 2026-27 increased to 2.78 billion bushels, up from 2.75 billion bushels last month.
The report included other minor adjustments, but the bottom line is that U.S ending stocks for 2026-27 increased to 320 million bushels, up from 310 million last month.
From a marketing perspective
On the global scene, the supply situation is deemed sufficient for now. Global ending stocks for soybeans for the 2026-27 crop year are pegged at 124.21 mmt, up from 124.17 last month. This is still near record-large but is down just a touch from the 2025-26 crop year of 125.12 mmt.
Who is growing the soybeans?
- Brazil is still the largest producer of soybeans, with production for 2026-27 pegged at 186 mmt, up from 180.5 last year. The United States is the world’s second largest grower of soybeans (the conversion into metric tons puts U.S. production at 122.99 mmt).
- Argentina is the world’s third largest grower of soybeans with production pegged at 50 mmt.
- China is actually the world’s fourth largest grower of soybeans, with production pegged at 21 mmt. Keep in mind that while China does grow some of their own soybean needs, their domestic demand is a whopping 136 mmt, and therefore, they need to import nearly all of their needs. The USDA thinks they will ultimately import 115 mmt, with the United States earning a slice of that number, marked at 25 mmt.
Prepare yourself
In the short term, due to the perception of sufficient supplies, soybean prices might trade in a simple, sideways trading pattern. Traders will be monitoring upcoming U.S. Midwest crop tours to gain additional insight as to the yield potential of the crop. Traders also are keeping tabs on Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans.
As the weeks press on, soybean prices also may take price cues from corn and wheat, which both have reductions in both U.S. and global supplies. Additionally, traders are focused on South American weather as those farmers head into soybean planting season in October and November. The El Nino weather pattern is still strong and might affect both planting and growing conditions in South America.
Should there be any hint of weather or production problems in Brazil or Argentina, then the perception of an ample global soybean production and ending stock surplus could shift quickly. Be ready.
Reach Naomi at naomi@totalfarmmarketing.com or find her on X at @naomiblohm.
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