Most of the sunflower crop has been rated in the good to excellent categories in the Northern Plains states throughout the growing season. This should mean yields will be above trend, assuming normal weather through the rest of this fall and the lack of an early freeze.
The exception to this would be the High Plains states that are affected by drought, where yields will likely be impacted. Overall, most market analysts are expecting U.S. sunflower yields to be around or slightly above the five-year average this year.
In July, USDA issued its initial outlook for 2026 sunflower production and usage for the 2026-27 marketing year. Beginning stocks were estimated at 324 million pounds. The initial yield estimate for all sunflower types was 1,775 pounds per acre.
This is lower than the 2025 yield of 1,863 pounds but higher than the five-year average yield of 1,721 pounds. Compared with last year, oil-type sunflower-harvested acreage is expected to be 3% higher, and non-oil sunflower-harvested acres are expected to be 25% higher.
A look at sunflower stocks
Total sunflower seed production was pegged at 2.31 billion pounds, which is slightly lower than 2025. Despite the higher oil-type acreage, sunflower seed crush decreased by 40 million pounds to 952 million pounds on slightly lower 2026 production. The other use category (non-oil use and residual) was increased by 82 million pounds to 2.07 billion pounds.
Ending stocks are forecast to rise to 359 million pounds, an 11% increase from 2025-26 but well below the five-year average. USDA will provide its updated yield and production estimates for sunflowers in October.
USDA increased global sunflower seed production in 2026-27 to 62.6 million metric tons due to higher production in Russia. Ukraine’s sunflower production forecast was reduced as farmers planted fewer sunflowers than expected. The European Union sunflower production forecast for 2026-27 was reduced on a lower yield forecast.
France experienced high temperatures and dry conditions, resulting in this yield decline. Higher production could result in global sunflower seed ending stocks increasing by 45% in 2026-27. Russia accounts for the majority of the increase.
With the higher global sunflower seed supply, the 2026-27 global sunflower seed crush is forecast to reach 55.8 MMT, which is 10% higher than in 2025-26. Global sunflower oil production is projected to reach 23.6 MMT, also up 12% from 2025-26.
Despite the higher global supply of sunflower oil, global sunflower oil stocks are projected to be 1.46 MMT by the end of September 2027, which represents only 7% stocks to use. This is all good news for sunflower prices as we move into the new marketing year.
In preparation for harvest, producers are cleaning out storage bins, and deliveries to crush plants have been on the increase. The situation in the European Union and Ukraine bears watching, as they are large exporters of sunflower oil. The potential reduced availability of sunflower seed and oil production poses risks for global markets, and U.S. sunflower prices could be responsive to the potential production shortfalls.
To keep up with price movement, go to sunflowernsa.com and follow on X @NatlSunflower.