In October, USDA released its first production estimate for the 2026 sunflower crop, pegging production at 2.3 billion pounds. That’s down 1% from the revised 2025 production of 2.34 billion pounds.
USDA increased oil sunflower production by 11.4 million pounds and non-oil-type production by 2.5 million pounds from last year.
Acreage updates were made in several states. Area planted, at 1.35 million acres, is up less than 1% from the June estimate and up 5% from last year. Sunflower growers expect to harvest 1.31 million acres, up 1% from the June forecast and up 4% from 2025.
The October yield forecast, at 1,761 pounds per acre, is 100 pounds lower than last year’s average yield but, if realized, still will represent the fourth highest on record for the U.S. Lower yields are expected in California, Colorado, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota and South Dakota. Texas is the only state expected to see higher yields than last year.
Production in North Dakota, the leading sunflower-producing state this year, is projected to reach 1.06 billion pounds, a decrease of 3% from 2025. Compared with last year, the average yield forecast of 1,740 pounds per acre in North Dakota is down 217 pounds per acre.
In South Dakota, the average yield is forecast at 1,959 pounds per acre, down 16 pounds per acre from last year’s record high.
The next yield and production estimates will be released in early January.
A look at the finer details
In its old-crop sunflower seed stocks report, USDA pegged old-crop sunflower stocks in all positions on Sept. 1 at 302.7 million pounds, up 45% from a year ago. All stocks stored on farms totaled 26.4 million pounds, and off-farm stocks totaled 276.4 million pounds.
Stocks of oil-type sunflower seed sit at 263.4 million pounds; of this total, 20.9 million pounds are on-farm stocks and 242.5 million pounds are off-farm stocks. Non-oil sunflower stocks totaled 39.3 million pounds, with 5.4 million pounds stored on the farm and 33.9 million pounds stored off the farm.
Stocks of oil-type sunflower seed were 54% higher than last year and in line with trade expectations. Non-oil stocks were up 2% from last year and also in line with industry estimates.
As of mid-October, crushers are offering 2027 new-crop cash high-oleic contracts at about $25.50 per cwt., with act of God (AOG) contracts at $25. Something else to consider is the oil premiums that crush plants pay on sunflower oil. Sunflower is the only oilseed that pays premiums for oil content above 40%.
Oil premiums at the crush plants on oil content above 40% are offered at a rate of 2% price premium for each 1% of oil above 40%; this pushes a contract with 45% oil content to a gross return of 10% higher per cwt. The $25 AOG contract increases to $27.50, and the $25.50 cash contract moves up to $28.05.
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