For battered U.S. wheat producers, 2027 is shaping up to be a bounce-back year in at least a few ways.
Does that mean better prices? Not necessarily, not directly from the market, anyway. Even after wheat futures’ staggering $2-plus sell-off since the beginning of September, it’s still not entirely clear if any sort of price bottom is approaching.
But a few factors may encourage growers and likely will provide a boost to winter wheat plantings that shrank to a 117-year low last year:
Mother Nature brings rain relief. Devastating drought that gripped much of the Southern Plains in recent years has receded from many key growing areas. As of early November, most of Kansas and eastern Colorado were drought-free in the wake of widespread fall rainfall, based on the U.S. Drought Monitor.
More moisture is expected from El Niño. While much of Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle remain under drought, those areas could see relief thanks to a historically strong El Niño. AccuWeather’s Chad Merrill told Farm Futures he expects an El Niño-driven “very robust subtropical jet stream” to deliver heavy rain to Oklahoma and Texas this winter.
Government safety net is expanding. Sharp price increases in USDA’s Risk Management Agency crop rates should act as a strong enticement for many producers. The 2027 RMA rate for hard red winter wheat in Kansas and Oklahoma is increasing to $8.11 per bushel from $5.61, according to Tanner Ehmke, CoBank lead economist for grains and oilseeds.
U.S. winter wheat seedings fell four years in a row, with last year’s crop sinking to 31.2 million acres, the lowest since 1909 based on USDA records. Ehmke sees strong chances of a reversal this year, saying the combination of more moisture and higher insurance rates argues against leaving land idle.
“Winter wheat acres are going to be up for a number of reasons,” Ehmke said. “The higher insurance price is the main reason. Farmers in much of the Plains also have the ability and incentive to eliminate fallow from the rotation because they have a full profile of soil moisture.”
Planting of this year’s winter wheat crop was running at a historically slow pace this fall but was largely complete by early November. “Official” planted acreage estimates won’t be out until mid-January, when USDA releases its annual Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings report. Until then, USDA’s weekly condition ratings offer one way to track the crop’s progress.
Weak exports keep prices under pressure
Meanwhile, wheat’s price outlook is murkier. The combination of sagging U.S. exports (shipments were down 36% year over year) and reports/rumors of Russia-Ukraine peace talks (or at least a cooling of hostilities) has kept futures under pressure much of the fall. Speculators were betting heavily against the wheat market late in 2026, and that’s been a winning bet for some time. And a sizable jump in U.S. plantings wouldn’t seem to favor the bulls.
At some point, the downside pressure will be exhausted and buyers will step in, but bottom-picking is always a risky proposition.
Still, producers will want to keep in mind that the past three years have produced late-winter or spring rallies that could offer pricing opportunities. To be sure, 2026’s steep upswing was fueled by the U.S.-Iran war; 2024 and 2025 rallies were much more modest and short-lived.