For market year 2025-26, USDA projected that sunflower production recovered to 2.3 billion pounds, more than double the production in 2024-25. Based on updated statistics, USDA raised the 2025-26 sunflower crush to 992 million pounds, almost 200 million pounds higher than the revised 2024-25 crush.
The 2024-25 sunflower crush was raised to 796 million pounds. The seed, non-oil use and residual category for 2025-26 was revised down to 1.5 billion pounds, but it is still forecast to recover from 2024-25. With unchanged sunflower seed exports, ending stocks were lowered slightly to 325 million pounds.
USDA raised domestic use of sunflower oil for 2025-26 to 702 million pounds, up 21 million pounds from the revised oil consumption in 2024-25. Oil sunflower seed prices have continued to increase throughout this marketing year on strong domestic oil demand. Since October, sunflower prices at the crush plants have added another $2.75 per cwt, depending on location.
What does the future hold?
Will acres increase this year after last year’s big jump? According to chatter I’m hearing from both producers and processers contracting acres, I would say yes.
The common theme I hear is that oil and confection sunflowers offer a good alternative to be in the rotation in 2026. I would say confection acres will increase considerably from last year’s low level, while oil acres increase slightly.
Crushing plants still are offering new-crop cash and act of God production contracts for high-oleic seeds, but not NuSun. The market has shifted, as buyers want oils that have high amounts of monounsaturated fats, and saturated fat levels at or below 7%. High-oleic sunflower oil fits the bill here. There still will be a market for NuSun seeds, but it mainly will be restricted to the bird food market.
AOG clauses basically mean the producer doesn’t have a production risk. Should drought, hail, insects, disease, etc., result in a yield loss, and you don’t have enough production per acre to cover your sale, the AOG clause kicks in. You’re only obligated to deliver what you produced, not what you contracted.
Something else to consider is the oil premiums that crush plants pay on high-oleic contracts. Sunflower is the only oilseed that pays premiums for oil content above 40%. Oil premiums are offered at crush plants at a rate of 2% price premium for each 1% of oil above 40%; this pushes a contract with 45% oil content to a gross return 10% higher per cwt, and would raise the value of a $23.30 base contract to $25.60 per cwt.
In the months ahead, growing season weather from North America to the Black Sea region will be the main price setter. Other fundamentals that the markets will be focusing on will be South American corn and soybean production, and the impact it might have on U.S. exports, plus any news from Washington on trade policy. To keep up with price movement, go to sunflowernsa.com. Follow on X @NatlSunflower.