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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.
What we’re watching
Deere & Co. shares plunged over 8% Thursday after the machinery maker reported sluggish sales and downgraded its South America outlook, raising renewed questions over the farm economy. Deere reiterated its outlook that 2026 would mark the bottom of a down cycle in the U.S. farm economy but also expressed caution. “Input costs, particularly fuel and fertilizer, have increased globally and will contribute to higher inflation across the ag economy,” Deere’s CFO said.
Corn lifted by corrective bounce, crude oil
July corn futures rose 1.5 cents to $4.6375 per bushel late in overnight trading after shedding 3.5 cents Thursday to $4.6225, the contract’s third consecutive daily decline. Futures are still up from $4.5575 at the end of last week. December corn rose 2.25 cents to $4.8725 after slipping 4.25 cents Thursday for a third straight daily loss.
Corn technicals firmed slightly overnight but the charts retain damage from a three-day selloff that erased most of an early-week rally. July futures are poised for a third consecutive close below the 50-day simple moving average, currently around $4.68, and are down about 22 cents, or 4.6%, from this month’s high at $4.8750 hit May 5. Further weakness could lead to a test of the 100-day SMA ($4.5875) and trendline support drawn from the January lows around $4.56.
December futures have held up somewhat better, having edged back above the 50-day SMA ($4.8725) but still near trendline support around $4.81, which will be a key level to watch next week. The new-crop contract is still up from $4.81 at the end of last week but down about 19 cents from a 2 ½-year intraday high at $5.0650 posted May 13.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price fell almost 4.5 cents Wednesday to just under $4.2575. Thursday’s average was about 39.75 cents below July futures, narrowing from 40.5 cents a week earlier.
Corn futures generated modest corrective buying overnight following three days of sharp losses driven by fund liquidation. A rebound in crude oil prices helped bring a bid back into the market, underscoring a need to maintain some risk premium ahead of the three-day holiday weekend. The Trump Administration’s penchant for making news over weekends no doubt is keeping markets on edge.
Crude oil futures rose early today amid skepticism over the potential for a breakthrough in U.S.-Iran peace talks. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio noted “some good signs,” though the countries remain divided on Tehran's uranium
Deflated hopes for fresh China business combined with deteriorating technicals to spur a wave of speculator selling across the grain complex much of this week. In corn, net selling by managed money funds totaled 41,000 futures contracts the past three days, based on a StoneX estimate. Net soybean selling totaled 18,000 futures contracts.
Grain traders will continue to monitor the Iran war but focus is increasingly shifting to spring weather, which leans bearish, with ample moisture reserves across most of the Corn Belt and warmer temperatures starting next week likely encouraging early crop development. Most of the corn and soybean crops will have been planted by the end of this week.
Absent a major escalation in the Middle East conflict over the weekend, the market appears poised to work lower next week, with charts showing progressively lower highs suggesting waning interest from the long side. Disappointment over a lack of details in the White House’s early-week announcement on $17 billion in new China ag purchases also continues to burden the market.
USDA on Thursday reported a sharp increase in weekly corn export sales, underscoring a record demand pace fueled by Mexico, Japan and other top global corn exporters.
Net U.S. corn sales during the week ended May 14 totaled 2.125 million metric tons (83.7 million bushels, up 71% from the average for the previous four weeks and a four-month high, based on USDA’s report. Sales topped the high end of expectations and were led by Japan at 779,800 MT.
For 2025-26 to date, U.S. corn sales commitments (including accumulated exports) still totaled 3.145 billion bushels, up 26% from the same period in 2024-25 and on track to surpass USDA’s current full-year projection for a record 3.3 billion bushels.
With 15 weeks left in the 2025-26 marketing year, old-crop corn sales would only need to average about 9 million bushels a week to reach the USDA's current export target, StoneX analyst Randy Mittelstaedt estimated. By comparison, sales averaged 18.1 bushels per week during the comparable period a year ago. USDA's projection “clearly appears to be too low,” he said.
David Kohl, professor emeritus with Virginia Tech University, thinks both farmland values and the stock market are due for a correction – but which will drop first? “Aside from the red-hot beef industry, economic pressure is now the defining reality,” Kohl said, noting a potentially troublesome disconnect in farm real estate. Read Kohl’s latest column on Farm Futures.
Soybean upside limited by favorable crop outlook
July soybeans rose 5 cents to $11.9925 overnight after dropping 5.5 cents Thursday to $11.9425, the contract’s third straight decline. Futures are still up from $11.77 at the end of last week. November soybeans rose 5.25 cents to $11.92 after retreating 6.75 cents Thursday to $11.8675, down from a two-year closing high of $12.0775 on May 13.
Soybeans’ near-term technicals showed some resilience overnight, with July futures holding support at the 50-day SMA ($11.90) but still on track for a third straight close under the 20-day SMA ($12.03). Despite the recent weakness, prices remain just above the mid-point of the past two months’ 78-cent range.
November futures overnight briefly pushed under the 20-day SMA ($11.86) before climbing. A breach of that level could lead to a test of last week’s low at $11.67, but prices remain well-above trendline support around $11.50.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price fell almost 9.25 cents Wednesday to just over $11.3675. Wednesday’s average was about 63 cents below July futures, narrowing from 65 cents a week earlier.
Soybean futures climbed overnight in a correct rebound from a three-day slide, helped by strength in crude oil. Old-crop futures face headwinds from fading hopes for fresh China demand, sagging U.S. exports and intense competition on global export markets from Brazil’s record crop, while rapid planting progress and favorable Midwest weather will limit upside in new-crop prices
Traders will keep an eye on weekend developments in the Middle East and any developments with China. The country has met most of an initial near-term soybean purchase target, 12 million metric tons (441 million bushels) that followed an October trade truce with the U.S. But it’s unclear when or if the country will follow through on the additional 25 MMT in annual purchase commitments the White House has touted.
USDA's export sales update Thursday showed some improvement in soybean numbers but the overall export picture remains uninspiring. USDA said net U.S. soybean sales totaled 351,400 MT (12.9 million bushels) during the week ended May 14, up from a marketing-year low the prior week and up 62% from the four-week average. Sales were within expectations. “Unknown destinations” was citied as the top buyer at 171,900 MT.
Also, USDA reported net sales of 172,700 MT for 2026-27, including 132,000 MT to unknown destinations. Such unnamed sales are sometimes, but not always, attributed later to China. “Interestingly, ‘unknown destinations’ were the feature for both old- and new-crop sales,” StoneX analyst Arlan Suderman wrote in a report. “This will likely spark rumors of Chinese buying.”
For 2025-26 to date, U.S. soybean export commitments now total 1.446 billion bushels, down 18% from the same period last year. Earlier this month, USDA cut its full-year export forecast by 10 million bushels to 1.53 billion bushels, down 19% from 2024-25 and a 13-year low.
For two decades, Brazilian farmers have aggressively expanded soybean acreage, fueling the country’s rise as the top producer and exporter of the oilseed. More recently, Brazil’s farmers face intensifying financial pressures that may force a slowdown. “I wouldn’t be surprised if we do see a reduction — even a modest reduction — in Brazil acres,” says Matthew Kruse, who runs farmland in both Iowa and Brazil, in an Ag Marketing IQ In Depth video.
Wheat burdened by strong SRW crop conditions
July SRW wheat fell 2.75 cents to $6.4475 after tumbling 13 cents Thursday to $6.4750, the contract’s lowest close since May 15. Futures are still up from $6.3575 at the end of last week and poised for the fifth weekly advance in the past six weeks.
July HRW wheat fell 3.75 cents to $6.8325 after sinking 11.75 cents Thursday to $6.87, the contract’s lowest close since May 11 and a drop of about 44 cents from a two-year closing high at $7.3125.
SRW technicals softened Thursday with July futures closing below the 10-day SMA ($6.5650) for just the second day in the past eight, and prices may be headed for a test of the 20-day SMA ($6.4475). Further weakness could prompt bears to target last week’s low at $6.3150. HRW charts are also eroding after July futures closed below the 20-day SMA ($6.9475) for the first time since April 13.
Wheat futures extended this week’s declines overnight amid forecasts for widespread rains across the Southern Plains over the next few days. The rains may provide some relief to drought-weakened winter wheat, but it’s likely that most of the damage is irreversible. Most of Oklahoma, western Kansas and the Texas Panhandle remain in moderate to extreme drought.
The winter wheat harvest is expected to shrink sharply this year, but production losses may have been factored in with the market’s recent rally to two-year highs. Stronger prospects for the SRW crop have also muted buying enthusiasm.
Last week, USDA estimated the 2026-27 total winter wheat crop at 1.048 million bushels, down 25% from 2025-26 and the smallest since 1965.
Weekly export sales numbers continued to illustrate a slow start for U.S. wheat in the 2026-27 marketing year, which begins June 1.
Net weekly U.S. wheat sales for 2025-26 delivery totaled 166,300 MT (6.1 million bushels) up 25% from the previous week and up 28% from the four-week average. Sales were at the high end of expectations and led by Japan at 98,300 MT. USDA also reported net sales of 130,500 MT for 2026-27 delivery, at the low end of expectations and led by “unknown destinations” at 51,500 MT.
New-crop wheat sales remain “tepid,” Mittelstaedt said, noting that total sales on the books so far for 2026-27, at about 75 million bushels, are less than half the total at the same point a year ago.
For 2025-26 to date, sales commitments now total 920.7 million bushels, up 17% from the same period in 2024-25 and 98.4% of USDA’s full-year export target of 935 million bushels, a five-year high. Earlier this month, USDA boosted its 2025-26 wheat export estimate by 35 million bushels, but even the updated number may be 15 million to 20 million bushels too low, Mittelstaedt said.
Eastern Corn Belt retains soggy outlook
Much of the Northern and Central Plains and the western Corn Belt will receive light to moderate rains over the next five days, with 0.25 inch to 1.5 inches possible for Kansas, Nebraska and South Dakota, based on a National Weather Service outlook. The eastern Corn Belt likely will remain soggy, with Ohio and the southern half of Indiana in line for 0.5 inch to as much as 3 inches.
Extended forecasts continue to show a warm-up for the Midwest starting next week and continuing into the first few days of June while expanding rain prospects for the Plains and western Corn Belt.
Both the 6-to-10-day and 8-to-14-day outlooks, which cover May 27-June 4, call for above-normal temperatures. Based on the 6-to-10-day, the eastern Belt can expect near to below-normal precipitation while the western Belt indicates above-normal probabilities.