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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.
What we’re watching
There are three actions you can take now to support your farm’s next-generation growth: Buy life insurance; outline installment sales, long-term land contracts or gifting programs; and restructure ownership, says Mike Downey of Succession Planning at Uncommon Farms.
After a wet week, much of the Midwest will receive light to moderate rain coverage this week. Heaviest amounts are seen from eastern Nebraska through southern Iowa and Missouri, where totals could range from 0.5 inch to as much as 2 inches by Saturday, based on a National Weather Service five-day outlook. Extended forecasts predict warm conditions through the rest of the month along with near-normal rainfall chances.
Corn lifted by smaller yield prospects
December corn futures rose 2.25 cents to $4.8550 per bushel late in overnight trading after earlier rising to $4.8725, the contract’s highest intraday price since $4.92 on July 24. Futures gained 21.25 cents last week. September corn rose 2 cents to $4.61.
Corn technicals extended last week’s strong finish overnight with December futures poised for a third positive close in the past four days. This week bulls will be gunning for December futures’ July high at $4.92, followed by the $5 area and the May high around $5.06. A run back toward the $5 level this week is sure spur a round of farmer selling that could make any rally short-lived.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price rose about 11.75 cents Friday to just over $4.30, up 21.5 cents for the week and a three-week high. Friday’s average was about 29 cents below September futures, narrowing from 30.5 cents a week earlier.
Corn futures opened overnight trading strong but faded from the initial highs amid conflicting forces: weakness in wheat futures and strength in crude oil, which rose on a lack of progress in diplomatic efforts to resolve the Middle East conflict. Black Sea shipping disruptions remain a background concern.
Prices retain support from last week’s bullish USDA reports, in which the agency cut its estimate for average 2026 U.S. corn yields to 180.7 bushels per acre, down from 183 bpa previously and short of the average analyst estimate at 182.4 bpa. In a separate report, USDA lowered expected corn stockpiles in 2027 and projected robust export demand to continue.
Corn traders this week will be looking to other markets and regions for direction this week. Weather continue to lean bearish, with abundant rains falling across much of the Midwest over the past week. Extended forecasts remain warm but have dropped precipitation odds closer to normal levels. The latest NWS 6-to-10-day outlook, which covers August 22-26, predicts above-normal temperatures for most of the Corn Belt while shifting to retaining normal rain chances.
In Europe, relentless heat and drought could halve this year's French corn harvest and reduce European Union production to its smallest in decades, despite expectations that crops in Poland and Romania will hold up better, Reuters reported. The European Commission in late July cut its forecast for the 2026/27 EU corn harvest to 51.9 million metric tons,
USDA will update weekly crop condition ratings this afternoon. A week ago, USDA reported 61% of the crop in 18 top corn states in either “good” or “excellent” condition as of August 9, steady with a week earlier but down from 72% a year ago. Another 25% of the crop was rated “fair” while the combined “poor” and “very poor” number was unchanged at 14%.
USDA also said 16% of the crop was dented, up from 6% a week earlier and above the 12% five- year average. About 61% of the crop reached dough stage, ahead of the 55% five-year average.
Market drama and sound marketing decisions do not make a good combination. That’s why farmers would be wise to avoid getting sucked into the sound and fury of August USDA crop data, says Matthew Pot of Grain Perspectives. “No marketing plan should ever be focused on the August USDA report,” he says. There are just too many unknowns. Details in Farm Futures weekly tipsheet.
Soybeans supported by China business
November soybeans rose 5.75 cents to $11.9825 late overnight after earlier touching $12.0050, the contract’s highest intraday price since July 29. Futures gained 16.25 cents last week to halt a two-week slide. September soybeans rose 7.25 cents to $11.85.
Soybean technicals strengthened overnight with November futures pushing above the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) around $11.9825 and nudging above $12 for the first time this month. A close above $12 would surely embolden bulls, though the market remains well below the July high around $12.56.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price rose over 10.75 cents Friday to almost $11.5125, up about 18.5 cents for the week. Friday’s average was about 26.5 cents below September futures, widening slightly from 26.25 cents a week earlier.
Soybeans climbed overnight as recent strength in crude oil and hopes for additional China demand offset bearish weather. Widespread rains and cooler temperatures should allow the soybean crop to finish strong this month, but localized flooding from excess rainfall could temper bearishness.
Market direction over the week ahead will be influenced by two potentially competing forces: bearish Midwest weather and bullishness over China, which has been ramping up U.S. soybean purchases.
USDA numbers last week were a mixed bag for soybeans. USDA estimated the average U.S. soybean yield at 52.7 bpa, down from USDA’s previous 53-bpa projection and slightly under the 52.9 bpa average analyst estimate. USDA hiked its soybean harvest forecast by 44 million bushels to a record 4.519 billion bushels, up 6% from 2025.
A week ago, USDA’s soybean condition ratings eroded slightly, fueling worries that extreme July heat and dryness in parts of the Midwest harmed yield potential. The U.S. crop’s good-to-excellent reading fell to 62% from 63%, contrary to analysts’ expectations for an improvement to 64%. Another 28% of the crop was rated fair, while poor-to-very-poor rose to 10% from 9%.
USDA also said 74% of the U.S. crop was setting pods as of August 9, up from 62% a week earlier and ahead of the 69% five-year average.
Last Friday, USDA reported private exporter soybean sales totaling 136,000 MT for delivery to China during the 2026-27 marketing year. Friday’s announcement followed six other flash sales reported since August 3 and brought the total China purchases since then to about 1.62 MMT.
USDA’s export sales report last Thursday showed China making progress toward a reported commitment to purchase 25 MMT (919 million bushels) of U.S. soybeans a year for the next three years. As of August 6, outstanding sales of U.S. soybeans to China for 2026-27 delivery totaled 4.56 MMT (167.4 million bushels), which represented just over 18% of the 25-MMT full-year purchase target.
Wheat sees corrective pullback from last week’s gains
December SRW wheat fell 5 cents to $6.6975 after rallying 21.25 cents Friday to $6.8950, the contract’s highest close since July 24. Futures surged 31.25 cents, or 4.7%, last week to mark a second straight weekly advance.
December HRW wheat fell 4.5 cents to $7.4975 after soaring 33 cents Friday to $7.6775, a three-week closing high. Futures gained 37.25 cents last week to record the market’s seventh weekly advance in the past eight weeks.
December spring wheat rose 1 cent to $6.7925 after gaining 9 cents Friday, but the market still posted a third consecutive weekly decline.
Wheat futures saw a corrective pullback overnight as traders monitored the Russia-Ukraine hostilities causing disruptions to shipping in the Black Sea. Unverified reports last week said the two sides were discussing a ceasefire of sorts, but nothing has been confirmed, and the war remains a supportive factor.
Last week, two of Russia's biggest grain terminals at the southern port of Novorossiysk suspended operations as a result of Ukrainian drone strikes, Reuters reported.
A week ago, USDA reported 51% of the spring wheat crop in good-to-excellent condition as of August 9, down from 55% a week earlier but up from 49% a year earlier (the “excellent” figure was steady at 7%, while “good” fell four percentage points to 44%). Analysts expected the number to hold at 54%. Acreage rated poor-to-very-poor increased to 16% from 12%.
However, the spring wheat harvest continued to race ahead while the winter harvest was nearly finished. USDA said the spring wheat harvest jumped to 24% complete as of August 9 from 9% a week earlier and ahead of the 19% five-year historical average. The winter wheat crop was 91% harvested, up from 86% a week earlier and even with the five-year average.
Sluggish U.S. exports continue to stymie rally attempts. USDA’s weekly export sales report extended a soft trend for U.S. wheat demand into the third month of the 2026-27 marketing year. Net U.S. sales for the week ended August 6 totaled 255,900 MT (9.4 million bushels), down 14% from the previous week and down 8% from the average for the previous four weeks. Sales were at the low end of expectations and led by Mexico at 101,100 MT.
For 2026-27 to date, U.S. wheat sales commitments (including accumulated exports) now total 274.6 million bushels, down 32% from the same period in 2025-26. In Wednesday’s Supply and Demand update, USDA kept its forecast for full-year U.S. exports unchanged at 775 million bushels, down 15% from 2025-26 and a three-year low.