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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.
What we’re watching
Grain prices have nosedived since mid-May and USDA’s supply and demand report Thursday triggered another downdraft. But it’s no time for panic selling. Many experts suggest farmers go slow on pricing grain right now. “The selloff is technically overdone, and a price recovery bounce may be likely in the week ahead,” advisor Naomi Blohm says. Consider some action items from Blohm and other experts in Farm Futures’ latest Top Tips.
Corn sinks to fresh contract lows amid favorable weather
July corn futures fell 0.75 cent to $4.11 per bushel late in overnight trading after earlier dropping to $4.0850, a contract low for the second straight day. Futures are down from $4.1750 at the end of last week and heading for a third straight weekly loss. December corn fell 1.25 cents to $4.3825 after earlier hitting a contract low at $4.3550.
Corn technicals deteriorated further overnight as futures sagged to fresh contract lows, with July futures closing in on sub-$4 levels traded last August. The market is severely oversold but there’s little standing in the way of further losses. December futures broke below key support around $4.40, which could lead to tests of the $4.35 and $4.30 levels. The new-crop contract has tumbled over 70 cents, or 14%, from a May high around $5.06.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price fell over 6.75 cents Thursday to just under $3.7950, the lowest since October. Thursday’s average was about 32.25 cents below July futures, narrowing from 34.5 cents a week earlier.
Corn futures followed broader weakness across the grain complex overnight as reports of a U.S.-Iran peace deal sent crude oil prices sliding to two-month lows. President Trump on Thursday called off strikes on Iran, and a memorandum between
July WTI crude oil futures fell over 3.5% to $84.56 after sinking to the lowest levels since mid-April.
Corn prices were already under pressure in the wake of Thursday’s USDA supply and demand update, which included only small adjustments to the domestic balance sheet but also sizable upward revisions to South America’s production. USDA hiked Brazil’s corn harvest estimate 3 million metric tons, or 2.2%, to a record 139 MMT (5.47 billion bushels), and boosted Argentina’s crop 2 MMT to 61 MMT. USDA also cited higher production in India.
The report reinforced a generally bearish global supply picture that combined with mostly favorable Midwest growing conditions after widespread, soaking rains moved across the region this week. Relatively mild temperatures are expected during the second half of June, which should be ideal for crop development. Traders will likely expect improvement in USDA’s weekly crop ratings Monday.
Trade focus now shifts to USDA’s June 30 acreage report, which is widely expected to include a downward revision to corn plantings. Meantime, favorable weather likely will keep pressure on futures, and it’s unclear when prices may finally establish a near-term bottom.
In Thursday’s report, USDA raised estimated corn stockpiles at the end of the 2025-26 marketing year by 3 million bushels to 2.145 billion bushels, a seven-year high and clashing with expectations for a small cut. USDA also lifted 2026-27 ending stocks 3 million bushels to 1.96 billion bushels. Exports for 2025-26 were raised 25 million bushels to a record 3.325 billion bushels. But USDA also lowered ethanol use by the same amount, to 5.575 billion bushels.
Below are summaries of several closely-followed U.S. stocks numbers in Thursday’s USDA reports:
Also Thursday, USDA’s weekly export sales report suggested further cooling in old-crop corn demand but a sharp pickup in new-crop interest.
Net U.S. corn sales for 2025-26 delivery totaled 1 MMT (39.4 million bushels) for the week ended June 4, up 13% from the previous week but down 15% from the average for the previous four weeks. Sales were within expectations and led by Japan, at 373,100 metric tons (MT).
USDA also reported net sales of 926,900 MT for 2026-27 delivery, more than tripling the previous week’s figure. Japan was again cited as the top buyer at 241,000 MT.
The corn market’s slide may be deflating, but there’s still a lot of growing season left and potential to capitalize through options-based tools such as short-dated “courage calls,” according to Bolt Marketing’s DuWayne Bosse. “I want those calls in your back pocket, not to necessarily make money, but so when the market does rally… you to have the courage to go out and sell new crop, knowing you have those if it goes to six bucks,” Bosse said in an Ag Marketing IQ In Depth video.
Soybeans pressured by crude oil, soyoil weakness
July soybeans rose 0.75 cent to $11.1575 overnight after tumbling 8 cents Thursday to $11.15, the contract’s ninth daily decline in the past 10 days. Futures are down from $11.2150 at the end of last week and tracking for a third straight weekly drop.
November soybeans were unchanged at $11.34 after slipping 4.5 cents Thursday to $11.34. The new-crop contract fell near a three-month intraday low Thursday at $11.2650 and is down from $11.3750 at the end of last week. Key downside levels to watch include the March low at $11.18 and the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) around $11.1425.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price fell over 7.75 cents Thursday to just over $10.6050. Thursday’s average was about 54.5 cents below July futures, narrowing from 59.5 cents a week earliers
Soybeans were pressured overnight as slumping crude oil weighed on the soy complex, sending soyoil futures to the lowest levels in over six weeks. July soyoil fell 1% to 73.70 cents per pound. Midwest growing conditions remain favorable for crop development and Thursday’s supply and demand report included some mildly bearish elements for soybeans.
USDA kept its 2025-26 U.S. ending stocks estimate unchanged at 340 million bushels, contrary to expectations for a small cut, while 2026-27 ending stocks were also held steady, at 310 million bushels. USDA also lowered 2025-26 soybean exports for the second month in a row, dropping its estimate 20 million bushels to 1.51 billion bushels, a 13-year low. Crushing was raised slightly.
Among global numbers, USDA kept its 2026 soybean harvest estimate for Brazil unchanged at a record 180 million metric tons (6.61 billion bushels) but raised Argentina’s crop by 2 MMT, or 4.2%, to 50 MMT. The following summarizes several key South American production numbers in Thursday’s USDA report:
USDA will update its corn and soybean plantings estimates in its June 30 Acreage report, which will be a major key to summer price direction. Many analysts expect USDA to boost soybean plantings by 1 million to 2 million acres from the 84.7 million acres predicted in March, based on ideas that a war-driven surge in fertilizer costs prompted many farmers to shift land away from corn.
Thursday’s USDA weekly export sales report further underscored soft demand for both old-crop and new-crop soybean supplies.
Net weekly soybean sales for 2025-26 totaled 211,300 MT (7.76 million bushels), down 24% from the previous week and down 18% from the four-week average. Sales were at the low end of expectations and led by Egypt at 67,600 MT. USDA also reported net sales of 141,500 MT for 2026-27, down sharply from the previous week.
However, “unknown destinations” was cited as the top new-crop buyer, at 120,000 MT, for the latest week, which could fuel hopes that China may be in the market (China was not specifically mentioned as a soybean buyer in USDA’s report).
Wheat lower despite smaller harvest outlook
July SRW wheat fell 3 cents to $5.8375 after edging down 0.75 cent Thursday to end a three-day win streak. Futures are up from $5.80 at the end of last week and poised for the market’s first weekly advance in four weeks.
July HRW wheat fell 3 cents to $6.3175 after gaining 4.25 cents Thursday to $6.3475, the contract’s highest close since June 2. Futures are up from $6.2075 at the end of last week and on track to halt a three-week losing streak. July spring wheat fell 2.5 cents to $6.17 after gaining 1.5 cents Thursday, though prices remain near a 3 ½-month intraday low posted Wednesday.
Wheat futures were pressured overnight as weakness in corn and crude oil overshadowed supportive numbers in Thursday’s USDA reports. Stiff export competition also continues to weigh on wheat prices.
In its monthly crop production report released separately Thursday, USDA estimated the 2026-27 total winter wheat crop at 1.03 billion bushels, down 18 million bushels from its initial forecast in May, down almost 27% from last year’s crop and the smallest since 1965. Analysts expected a figure closer to 1.041 billion bushels.
The hard red winter crop, which has been hit hardest by drought, was estimated at 496.9 million bushels, down 18 million bushels from May and down 38% from last year.
In the supply and demand report, USDA also reduced projected 2026-27 ending stocks by 18 million bushels to 744 million bushels. The following summarizes several top U.S. wheat categories in Thursday’s crop production report:
Thursday’s USDA export sales report came out stronger than expected for wheat, suggesting the recent price pullback may be generating renewed interest among buyers in the recently begun 2026-27 marketing year.
Net U.S. wheat sales for the week ended June 4 totaled 666,300 MT (24.5 million bushels), which was down from the previous week but topped expectations that ranged from 200,000 MT to 600,000 MT. Mexico was the top buyer at 143,100 MT.
Rainfall coverage recedes for Midwest into next week
Rainfall coverage for the Midwest is expected to shrink through the middle of next week, with heaviest amounts seen for the southern Corn Belt. Most of Missouri could receive 1.25 inches to almost 3 inches by Wednesday, based on a National Weather Service five-day outlook. Lighter amounts of 1 inch or less are possible for Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. The western Corn Belt and Northern Plains look mostly dry.
Extended forecasts continue to show cooler receding from the Midwest during the second half of June and giving way to mostly normal temperatures but have also dialed up rainfall odds.
The latest NWS 6-to-10-day outlook, which covers June 17-21, calls for below-normal temperatures for the eastern Corn Belt but normal readings for the western Belt. Above-normal precipitation probabilities have expanded to cover most of the Corn Belt during that period. The 8-to-14-day outlook, covering June 19-25, also calls for above-normal precipitation for the region.