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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.

What we’re watching

USDA’s acreage forecasts earlier this week generated some surprises and sharp price swings but should be viewed less as a verdict and more as a “calibration point” as spring weather takes center stage, Advance Trading’s Cesar Cruz says. Meantime, keep an eye on a “sleeper” market, wheat, in which a combination of Plains drought and record-low acres could make for a white-knuckle ride.

Corn lifted by concern over protracted conflict

May corn futures rose 4 cents to $4.5825 per bushel late in overnight trading after shedding 3.5 cents Wednesday to $4.5425, the contract’s lowest close since March 17. December futures rose 4 cents to $4.8525 after ending at a two-week low Wednesday.

Corn technicals firmed overnight as May and December futures rebounded from two-week lows, though both contracts are still poised for their fourth straight closes under the 20-day simple moving averages (SMAs) at $4.6025 and $4. 87, respectively. May’s bounce merely brought prices back to the mid-point of the past month’s range.

December futures flirted with a chart breakdown with a brief dip Wednesday below an uptrend line drawn from January lows. Key near-term downside levels include trendline support around $4.78 and Wednesday’s low at $4.76.

Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price rose almost 0.75 cent Wednesday to $4.1475. Wednesday’s average was about 39.5 cents below May futures, narrowing from 42.5 cents a week earlier.

Corn futures joined other grains in an overnight upswing following President Trump’s prime time address last night, which deflated hopes for an imminent end to the Middle War and a re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. is “going to hit (Iran) extremely hard over the next two to three weeks. We’re going to bring them back to the stone ages, where they belong,” Trump said.

May WTI crude surged over $9, or almost 10%, to $109.65 per barrel late in overnight trading and is heading for its highest close since 2022.

Oil’s rally injected some fresh bullishness into the corn market, driven in part by concerns over further escalation with Iran over the three-day holiday weekend. Corn’s gains were relatively muted, and December futures are still down about 13 cents from a high of $4.9850 in early March. But prices could close that gap if the war drags on for an extended period.

“I suspect the bulls are taking a cautious attitude into the long weekend, which is the safest play given what we've seen in recent weeks,” John Zanker, senior analyst at Farmer’s Keeper Financial, said in a note. “If this war does drag on for several more weeks, we might have seen our largest corn acreage number of the season on Tuesday.”

Corn took pressure earlier this week after USDA, in its Prospective Plantings report, forecast 2026 plantings at a higher than expected 95.338 million acres. While down from last year, plantings would still be historically high, signaling abundant corn supplies into 2027. The report appears to have shaken the resolve of speculators who built heavy bullish bets in the corn market over the past month.

Funds sold about 12,000 corn futures contracts Wednesday, according to a StoneX estimate. That selling likely reflected “less resilient” speculators reducing long exposure in the market, StoneX analyst Bevan Everett said. The fund net-long in corn is still “substantial and will take at least a week to cut in half,” Everett said in a report. “The question is, will the spring/summer risk be low enough to allow players currently in the contract to be comfortable enough to exit?”

With initial acreage numbers out, market focus shifts to spring weather. In our latest Ag Marketing IQ In Depth video, Farm Futures’ Bruce Blythe and Ben Potter discuss USDA implications and where farmers might seek opportunities. Read the full Farm Futures recap of Tuesday’s reports.

Strong demand fundamentals have helped keep corn prices on an upward track much of the year, and today’s USDA weekly export sales report likely will reflect a record demand pace.

Analysts expect net 2025-26 U.S. corn sales to range from 900,000 metric tons to 1.6 million metric tons (35.4 million to 63 million bushels) during the week ended March 26, based on a Reuters survey. A week ago, USDA reported net 2025-26 U.S. corn sales for the week ended March 19 at 1.218 MMT, up 4% from the prior week but down 10% from the four-week average.

The nation’s ethanol distillers scaled back production last week in a likely reflection of the start of seasonal maintenance at many plants.

Ethanol production averaged 1.075 million barrels per day during the week ended March 27, down 3.7% from the previous week and a two-month low, the Energy Information Administration reported Wednesday. Over the past four weeks, output averaged 1.103 million barrels per day, up 3% from the same period in 2025.

Weekly ethanol exports improved 3.4% to 123,000 barrels per day, up from a 10-week low the prior week. Ethanol stocks shrank 4.3% for the week to 26 million barrels, down 3% from a year ago.

Elsewhere, StoneX Brazil boosted its estimate for the country’s first corn crop 1.5% to 27.2 MMT but also trimmed its second-crop forecast by 0.7% to 106 MMT. The firm now sees Brazil’s overall 2025-26 corn production at 135.7 MMT (5.34 billion bushels), down 2.9% from 2024-25.

Soybeans supported by oil rally, lower acres

May soybeans rose 3.75 cents to $11.7225 overnight after dropping 2.5 cents Wednesday to $11.6850. November soybeans rose 4.5 cents to $11.60 after slipping 2 cents Wednesday to $11.5550, still up about 31 cents over the past month.

Soybeans technicals firmed slightly overnight, with November futures heading for a third consecutive close above 10- and 20-day SMAs (11.4950 and $11.4875, respectively) and a three-week high. A push above this week’s high at $11.64 could prompt bulls to target the mid-March high at $11.7425. Initial support is seen at this week’s low at $11.40.

Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price rose over 4.25 cents Wednesday to $10.9950. Wednesday’s average was about 69 cents below May futures, narrowing from 73.75 cents a week earlier.

Soyoil futures led the soy complex higher overnight, spurred by sharp rallies in crude oil as well as diesel futures, both on track for four-year highs. Prices also retain support from a lower-than-expected planting figure from USDA earlier this week.

USDA estimated 2026 soybean plantings at a lower than expected 84.7 million acres, up 4.3% from a six-year low in 2025 but about 849,000 acres short of the average estimate. Insufficient acres could lead to tighter supplies at a time domestic processors are crushing soybeans at a record pace in anticipation of higher biofuels use.

USDA’s export sales update today may show a pullback in soybean numbers after an unexpectedly strong figure the week prior. Any Chinese buying will be of keen interest.

Net 2025-26 U.S. soybean sales for the week ended March 26 are seen at 300,000 MT to 700,000 MT (11 million to 25.7 million bushels), based on the Reuters survey. A week ago, USDA reported net U.S. soybean sales at 668,900 MT, up 89% from the average for the previous four weeks and a five-week high. China led buyers at 263,000 MT.

For 2025-26 to date, U.S. export commitments now total 1.369 billion bushels, down 18% from the same period last year. USDA-confirmed China purchases for 2025-26 total 11.24 MMT (413 million bushels), roughly half the 21.8 MMT sold by this point in 2024-25.

Elsewhere, StoneX Brazil hiked its outlook for the country’s 2026 soybean harvest by 1.1% to 179.7 MMT (6.6 billion bushels), citing higher planted acreage and yields than previously forecast. Brazil’s soybean harvest was about 75% complete as of March 26, down from 82% on the same date a year earlier, AgRural said earlier this week.

Wheat climbs as war overshadows wet forecast

May SRW wheat rose 10.5 cents to $6.08 after plunging 18.75 cents Wednesday to $5.9750, down from a three-week high Tuesday and the contract’s lowest close since March 24.

May HRW wheat rose 9 cents to $6.2275 after tumbling 21.75 cents Wednesday to $6.1375, a one-week low. May spring wheat rose 6.75 cents to $6.4875 after sinking 16.5 cents Wednesday, down from a 22-month high Tuesday.

Wheat technicals were shored up to some extent overnight as May SRW futures rebounded back above 10- and 20-day SMAs ($6.01 and $6.00, respectively). Futures remain in an uptrend drawn from the January lows, but if the market is unable to sustain gains above $6 level, funds may scale up short positions, or, in the case of HRW, pare back a small net-long.

Wheat futures surged overnight as concern over Middle East escalation boosted crude oil and temporarily overshadowed beliefs that widespread rains this week across the central U.S. will bring some relief to drought that’s gripped much of the Southern Plains.

Rainfall is expected to soak much of the Southern Plains today through Sunday, with a band stretching from central Texas through Oklahoma and southeast Kansas bringing 1.5 inches to over 3 inches of rain possible.

Wheat futures also retain support from USDA acreage numbers. Plantings of all varieties of wheat in 2026 are seen at 43.775 million acres, down 3.4% from 2025 and the lowest in USDA records going back to 1919.

Today’s USDA export sales report is expected to continue to show light wheat purchases as the 2025-26 U.S. marketing year winds down.

Net weekly U.S. wheat sales for 2025-26 may range from 200,000 MT to 500,000 MT (7.35 million to 18.4 million bushels), based on the Reuters survey. A week ago, USDA reported net U.S. wheat sales at 397,200 MT, more than double the previous week and up 46% from the four-week average.

For 2025-26 to date, U.S. wheat sales commitments (including accumulated exports) totaled 885 million bushels, up 15% from the same period in 2024-25 and 98.3% of USDA’s full-year target of 900 million bushels.

Analysts expect net weekly wheat sales for delivery during the 2026-27 marketing year at 100,000 MT to 300,000 MT.

Much of Midwest, Plains to get soaking

Soaking rains are expected to sweep across most of the Midwest and part of the Southern Plains today through Sunday, based on NOAA’s latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map. Heaviest amounts are seen from central Texas through most of Oklahoma, with 1.5 inches to over 3 inches of rain possible. Illinois, Wisconsin and eastern Iowa could see similar amounts.

Longer-term outlooks continue to lift odds for warmer temperatures and greater rainfall for the central U.S. by mid-April. The National Weather Service’s latest 6-to-10-day and 8-to-14-day outlooks, which cover April 7-15, showed expanding prospects for above-normal precipitation across the entire Plains and most of the central and western Corn Belt.

Stock index futures nosedive after Trump speech

Stock index futures tumbled overnight after President Trump’s aggressive rhetoric in an address last night squashed hopes for an imminent end to Middle East hostilities and sent oil prices soaring to four-year highs.

Futures based on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 indexes dropped about 1.4% and 1.9%, respectively, while Dow futures sank 1.3%. The U.S. dollar index jumped 0.6%.