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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.
What we’re watching
“Hank Holder” has had a pretty good year, thanks to corn futures that recently soared to three-year highs above $5 per bushel, economist Ed Usset said. “This year, Hank is a big winner,” Usset said during a panel discussion at the Farm Progress Show. That doesn't mean it’s always good strategy to hold on to old-crop stocks into the following summer. Hank is actually still climbing out of a big hole dug over the past five years.
Warm temperatures and limited moisture prospects are expected to persist across the Midwest through mid-September, speeding crops toward maturity. The National Weather Service’s six- to 10-day and eight- to 14-day outlooks, which cover Sept. 9-17, calls for above-normal temperatures for the entire Midwest while shifting rain odds to near normal for the eastern and central Corn Belt.
U.S. markets will be closed Monday for the Labor Day holiday.
Corn near 3-year highs on lower yield outlook
December corn futures rose 0.25 cent to $5.41 per bushel late in overnight trading after dropping 2.75 cents Thursday. Futures are down from a three-year intraday high of $5.4975 posted Wednesday but are still up from $5.3650 at the end of last week.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price rose fell just over 3.25 cents Thursday to about $4.9450, roughly 24.25 cents under September futures.
Thursday’s sharp rebound off early-session lows illustrated the corn market’s bullish underpinnings. December futures dropped to $5.2650, the lowest intraday price since Aug. 26, but bounced back to end over 14 cents off the low. But the market may be vulnerable to speculator profit-taking ahead of the long holiday weekend with funds holding a massive net-long position, and a weak close today could fuel ideas the market may have reached a near-term top.
Both corn and wheat market face headline risk to the upside and downside amid uncertainty over the direction of the Russia-Ukraine and U.S.-Iran wars. Wheat futures slumped Thursday in the wake of reports Vladimir Putin said there was a chance of reaching an agreement to end the war. A further sell-off in wheat would likely encourage selling in corn.
Corn prices retain support from expectations USDA will lower its U.S. average yield estimate in the agency’s Sept. 11 Crop Production report, possibly by 2 to 3 bushels per acre from its curent 180.7 bpa forecast. Any yield cut would likely be accompanied by a drop in USDA’s production forecast, which stands at slightly over 16 billion bushels.
Thursday’s weekly USDA export sales report showed an upturn in new-crop corn purchases but commitments are still down sharply from last year’s record pace. USDA reported net new-crop U.S. corn sales for the week ended Aug. 27 at 1.986 million metric tons (78.2 million bushels), up 86% from the previous week. Mexico led buyers at 665,000 MT.
Sales commitments for 2026-27 to date now total 568.7 million bushels, down almost 31% from the same point a year ago.
The corn sales pace “will be worth monitoring moving forward, especially with the recent rally making U.S. corn look less competitive to prospective buyers,” StoneX analyst Mike Castle said in a note. “But ongoing global factors such as the growth of corn-based ethanol demand in Brazil and disrupted exports from Ukraine amid a weak EU crop likely to keep support under demand for U.S. corn exports in the year ahead.”
Soybeans supported by upturn in China buying
November soybeans fell 1.5 cents to $13.1475 late overnight after gaining 6 cents Thursday to $13.1625. Futures are down from a 2 ½-year high of $13.24 posted Wednesday but are still up from $12.88 at the end of last week and up 13% from a mid-August low around $11.65.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price rose almost 4.75 cents Thursday to $12.57, roughly 49.5 cents under September futures.
December soymeal fell $1.20 to $354.30 per ton after jumping 1.7% Thursday to $354.20, the highest close for a most-active contract since June 2024. December soy oil fell 51 points to 69.53 cents per pound.
Soybean futures are consolidating near this week’s highs as the market awaits next week’s USDA reports. Prices retain support from rallying soymeal and strength in crude oil and diesel futures, as well as an outlook for sharply higher biofuels blending mandates.
U.S. soybean export sales for the new-crop year fell last week, but China remained a prominent buyer. USDA reported net U.S. sales for the week ended Aug. 27 at 1.95 MMT (70.8 million bushels), down 21% from the previous week. China was the top buyer at 972,000 MT, followed by “unknown destinations” at 669,000 MT.
As of Aug.27, outstanding sales of U.S. soybeans to China for 2026-27 delivery totaled 7.76 MMT (285.1 million bushels). That total represents 31% of a 25-MMT full-year purchase target that arose from a trade truce struck with the U.S. last fall.
Also Thursday, USDA reported private exporter soybean sales totaling 192,000 MT for delivery to China during 2026-27. Thursday’s announcement was the latest in a series of over a dozen so-called USDA flash sales reports since late July detailing Chinese purchases of U.S. beans.
Wheat mixed after Putin reports trigger slump
December soft red winter wheat wheat fell 0.25 cent to $7.54 after tumbling 19.75 cents Thursday to $7.74, the contract’s second consecutive daily decline and its lowest close in over a week. Futures are down from $7.84 at the end of last week and poised to break a four-week winning streak.
December hard red winter wheat rose 1.75 cents to $8.1725 after shedding 18.75 cents Thursday. Futures are down from a three-year intraday high of $8.5825 posted Wednesday.
Wheat futures found some buying interest overnight after Thursday’s sell-off, which was fueled by hopes for an end to the Russia-Ukraine war. President Vladimir Putin, speaking at an economic forum in Russia’s far east, said a number of countries including the U.S. and China were ready to support a peace settlement, Reuters reported.
Earlier this week, futures rallied to the highest levels in over three years behind ideas that disruptions to Black Sea grain shipments could boost export demand for U.S. wheat.
“The focus remains on how much additional demand gets shifted to the U.S. in the year ahead, primarily a function of the duration of exports from the Black Sea remaining disrupted,” Castle wrote. Despite the reports of potential peace talks, “there remains little evidence of improvement on the ground.”
Wheat export sales slumped last week, tempering ideas that Black Sea disruptions and a drought-slashed harvest in Europe was prompting top importers to increasingly turn to the U.S. for supplies.
USDA reported net U.S. wheat sales for the week ended Aug. 27 at 313,500 MT (11.5 million bushels), down 22% from the previous week but up 7% from the average for the previous four weeks. Sales were led by Mexico at 80,400 MT.
For 2026-27 to date, U.S. wheat sales commitments (including accumulated exports) now total 315.3 million bushels, down 31% from the same period in 2025-26.