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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.
What we’re watching
There’s an old saying in grain markets: “Oats know where corn goes,” meaning that oats are more of a “pure” market subject less to the whims of fund money. Late last week, oat futures surged to a 28-month high above $4.20, while corn slumped to a four-week low. Total Farm Marketing’s Naomi Blohm examined the relationship between the two grains.
After a soggy week, waterlogged farmers in the western Corn Belt likely will see little relief this week. Potentially heavy rain totals near or above 3 inches are expected for much of Nebraska, Iowa and Kansas by Saturday, based on a National Weather Service five-day outlook. Similar totals are seen for the Panhandle region and much of Oklahoma. However, extended forecasts show a drier trend moving into the region next week.
Corn follows soybeans lower
December corn futures fell 7.5 cents to $5.2075 per bushel late in overnight trading after rebounding from an early sell-off Friday to post a 0.75-cent gain. Futures rose 0.75 cent last week to halt a two-week losing streak. March futures fell 7.75 cents to $5.3425.
Corn technicals showed impressive bullish resilience with Friday’s recovery, which saw December futures bounce back from a four-week intraday low at $5.1475 to close 13.5 cents off the low. Price action early this week will be telling as to the question of whether the market sustained lasting damage from Friday’s breach of key support around $5.25. Bears likely will angle to fill a gap in the daily bar chart between $5.09 and $5.1025 left in late August.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price rose just under 1 cent Friday to $4.8375, up 1.5 cents for the week. Friday’s average was about 44.5 cents under December futures, narrowing from 46.75 at the beginning of the month.
Corn followed soybeans lower overnight in the wake of President Donald Trump’s meeting last week with China’s Xi Jinping, which produced no announcements of any major deals to buy U.S. agricultural goods. There was no apparent mention of a White House-touted agreement for China to buy an additional $17 billion in other U.S. ag goods and no formal commitment from China to buy 25 million metric tons (MMT) of U.S. soybeans every year through 2028. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent did announce a two-month extension of a trade truce that was set to expire in November.
Earlier today, Reuters reported that China is set to cut tariffs on a broad range of U.S. agricultural goods, including corn, wheat, meat and dairy products, but soybeans were excluded from a tariff-reduction list jointly issued by China's commerce ministry and the White House.
“Very little news of note has come from the Trump-Xi meeting thus far, more pageantry and pandas than policy,” StoneX analyst Mike Castle said in a report. He added that U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the two sides reached trade agreements on a few minor items, and that more details will be released today.
Meanwhile, in much of the Midwest, harvest has been bogged down by heavy rains over the past week, but extended forecasts indicate farmers will see some relief next month. The updated National Weather Service’s six- to 10-day outlook, covering Oct. 3-7, shows near- to below-normal moisture odds for most of the Midwest along with near normal temperatures. Below-normal precipitation odds will expand to cover most of the Corn Belt through Oct. 11, based on the eight- to 14-day outlook.
Corn harvest had been running slightly ahead of the historical average, but last week’s Midwest rains probably brought fieldwork in many areas to a halt. USDA will update its harvest progress estimates later today.
A week ago, USDA reported 13% of the U.S. corn crop was harvested as of Sept. 20, up from 8% a week earlier and above the 11% average for that date the previous five years. Among Corn Belt states, Kansas led with 40% of its crop harvested, while Missouri was at 32%. Illinois and Iowa crops were 16% and 4% harvested, respectively.
USDA also reported 57% of the crop in 18 top corn states in either “good” or “excellent” condition, unchanged from a week earlier but down from 66% a year ago. About 26% of the crop was rated “fair,” while the combined “poor” and “very poor” number was 17%, all unchanged from last week.
Traders will watch today’s export inspections update to see if last week’s sharp jump can be sustained and possibly help U.S. shipments catch up amid a slow start to the 2026-27 marketing year.
USDA reported corn inspected for export during the week that ended Sept. 17 at a five-week high of 1.939 million metric tons (76.3 million bushels), up 25% from the previous week and up 40% from the same week a year earlier. Japan was the top destination at 591,923 metric tons (MT).
For 2026-27 to date, corn shipments totaled 163 million bushels, up 16% from the same period in 2025-26. Shipments are now running above year-ago levels even with overall sales commitments down 29%, which may be reflect a combination of recent U.S. dollar strength and a run-up in corn prices.
USDA will report its quarterly Grain Stocks update Wednesday, along with its Small Grains Summary. Corn stockpiles as of Sept. 1, the start of the 2026-26 marketing year, may be revised a few million bushels lower to about 1.918 billion bushels, based on a Reuters survey of analysts.
Yesterday’s Trump-Xi summit generated few concrete details for U.S. ag and left bulls with little to chew on, sending corn and soybeans sliding from three-year highs. What next? Producers still have reasons to hope for price upside but should also brace for potential downside. “Right in front of us, the short-term pressure is real,” Chase Koopmans says in this week’s Top Tips. “We just rallied hard on hope.”
Soybeans down sharply on tariff concern
November soybeans fell 24 cents to $12.95 late overnight after earlier touching $12.94, the contract’s lowest intraday price since Sept. 14. Futures rebounded from initial losses Friday and posted a gain of 15.5 cents for the week but are still down about 40 cents from a 2.5-year intraday high of $13.3525 posted Sept. 11. January soybeans fell 24 cents to $13.0850.
Soybean technicals eroded overnight as November futures sank near the low end of the past month’s range, erasing all of Friday’s rebound, and may be poised to post a bearish reversal on the daily bar chart. Key downside levels to watch include the Sept. 14 low ($12.92) and the month’s low ($12.90). A breach of those levels could prompt funds to liquidate some of a hefty net long position built in recent weeks.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price rose almost 2.25 cents Friday to just over $12.6225, up 18 cents for the week. Friday’s average was about 56.75 cents under November futures, compared to about 56.5 cents at the beginning of the month.
December soymeal fell $8.90 to $362.10 per ton after slipping $1.40 Friday to $371, still up 3.5% for the week and near a 27-month closing high posted last Thursday. December soy oil fell 13 points to 67.72 cents per pound, rebounding from a four-week low but still shedding 1.4% for the week.
Soybeans fell sharply overnight following reports China will retain a 10% tariff on U.S. soybeans, which fueled doubts over whether China will reach the 25-MMT purchase target that emerged from a trade truce with the U.S. in late 2025. While China will cut tariffs on other U.S. ag goods, a 10% levy on soybeans is too
China is believed to have made purchase commitments for about half of the 25-MMT soybean target so far in 2026-27.
Given bearishly viewed results out of Washington, the soybean market may face further downside with a potential record crop in the pipeline.
Recent Midwest rains have slowed harvest progress and caused soybean availability to shrink, prompting processors in the western Midwest to sharply hike bids to draw supplies. The scramble for soybeans “has sent cash prices soaring, creating an unexpected windfall for farmers able to harvest their crops and get them to market, or sell off the last of their old crops,” Reuters reported.
Last Thursday, Cargill bid $1 a bushel over the price of November futures for beans delivered to its Sioux City, Iowa, crushing plant, Reuters reported, citing the company’s website.
Traders will watch today’s Crop Progress report for signs of a harvest slowdown. A week ago, USDA reported 12% of the U.S. soybean crop was harvested as of Sept. 20, up from 6% a week earlier and ahead of the 8% five-year average for that date.
USDA also held soybeans’ overall good-to-excellent reading at 58%, down from 61% a year earlier. About 29% of the crop was rated fair, while the poor-to-very-poor categories rose to 14% from 13%. USDA also said 62% of the U.S. soybean crop was dropping leaves, ahead of the 58% five-year average.
Today’s export inspections report likely will show continuing shipments to China. A week ago, USDA said soybeans inspected for export during the week that ended Sept. 17 totaled 759,193 MT (27.9 million bushels) — up 12% from the previous week and the largest for a single week since early April. China was the top destination at 446,789 MT.
For the 2026-27 marketing year to date, soybean shipments totaled 61.8 million bushels, up 1.8% from the same period in 2025-26. Earlier this month, USDA raised its full-year 2026-27 export estimate to 1.685 billion bushels, which would be up 11% from a 13-year low in 2025-26.
China continues to make progress toward the 25-MMT annual purchase target touted by the White House. As of Sept. 17, outstanding sales of U.S. soybeans to China for 2026-27 delivery totaled 10.17 MMT (373.6 million bushels). That represents 41% of the 25-MMT full-year target the White House has said Beijing had committed to annually through 2028.
Wheat extends slide as exports languish
December soft red winter wheat fell 6.75 cents to $6.9650 after sinking 3.75 cents Friday to $7.0325, the contract’s fourth straight daily decline and its lowest close since Aug. 25. Futures fell 11 cents last week to record a fourth straight weekly decline and are down 12% from a three-year high of $7.95 on Sept. 2.
December hard red winter wheat fell 11.5 cents to $7.5050 after shedding 5 cents Friday to $7.62, the contract’s fourth consecutive daily loss and its lowest settlement since Aug. 18. December spring wheat fell 7.5 cents to $7.06 after ending Friday near a six-week low.
Wheat futures extended last week’s declines overnight amid soft export sales and disappointment over the Trump-Xi summit. Russia-Ukraine hostilities that have disrupted Black Sea grain movement remain a concern, but there’s been little apparent demand boost for U.S. wheat. Forecasts for much-needed rains in the Southern Plains added to the pressure.
Egypt, India and Turkey have all submitted formal proposals to unblock Black Sea shipping as fighting continues between Russia and Ukraine — with the latter reportedly waiting for the former’s reaction to these plans.
“I had separate conversations with the leadership of these countries, and our Ministry of Foreign Affairs has also been in contact with their counterparts in these countries,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said last week.
Today’s weekly Crop Progress update likely will show winter wheat seeding lagging behind average, though recent Southern Plains rainfall may improve.
A week ago, USDA reported 17% of the winter wheat crop planted as of Sept. 20, up from 8% the previous week but behind the 21% five-year average. Kansas was 10% planted, below its 13% five-year average. About 2% of the winter wheat crop had emerged, compared to the 4% five-year average.
Despite ongoing disruptions to Black Sea grain movement, USDA export readings have conveyed few signs of any meaningful shift among global importers to the U.S.
A week ago, USDA reported wheat inspected for export during the week that ended Sept. 17 fell to 335,253 MT (12.3 million bushels), down 29% from the prior week and a nine-week low. For 2026-27 to date, U.S. wheat shipments now total 221.5 million bushels, down 31% from the same period a year earlier.