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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.
What we’re watching
Nobody’s predicting a repeat of the 1970s for the U.S. farm economy, when producers went on a borrowing binge as land values soared before it all came crashing down in the ’80s. But there are three signs emerging that agriculture is on a “parallel path,” according to veteran ag economist David Kohl.
Farmers should see a mostly open week ahead for harvest, with little to no rain expected for most of the Midwest through Saturday, according to the National Weather Service. Extended forecasts show October closing warm and mostly dry, with the six- to 10-day outlook calling for above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation for all but the western Corn Belt for Oct. 24-28.
Thought about your fertilizer needs for 2027? Join a Farm Futures webinar Oct. 26 as CoBank and StoneX experts discuss the market outlook.
Corn pressured by accelerating harvest
December corn fell 2.5 cents to $4.7175 per bushel late in overnight trading after earlier dropping to $4.72, the lowest intraday price since Oct. 9 and near an eight-week intraday low at $4.7025 posted Oct. 9. Futures fell 5.5 cents last week to record a third straight weekly decline. March futures fell 1.75 cents to $4.8475.
Corn charts remained under pressure overnight with December futures nearing an eight-week low at $4.7025 posted Oct. 9 and poised for a fifth consecutive daily decline. On Friday, December futures closed below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) of about $4.7950 for the second day in a row. A break under the Oct. 9 low would set the stage for a test of the August low around $4.57. Futures have erased about 77 cents, or 84%, of a 92-cent rally from the mid-August lows.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price fell slightly over 4 cents Friday to just under $4.3475, down 4.5 cents for the week and an eight-week low. Friday’s average was about 39.5 cents under December futures, narrowing from 40.75 cents a week earlier.
Corn futures extended last week’s declines amid accelerating harvest pressure and heightened yield expectations in the wake of USDA’s bearish crop report earlier this month. Harvest has lagged behind schedule. But with forecasts for a mostly dry week ahead, farmers should be able to catch up in many areas. Additional pressure stems from a chart breakdown that’s prompted speculators to slash a once-record net-long position. The market may be vulnerable to further fund liquidation this week.
In other markets, Brent crude oil fell over 1% overnight after soaring almost 5% last week to five-month highs near $110 per barrel. Oil prices surged last week amid concern over ongoing disruptions from conflict in the Middle East supplies as well as skepticism over the availability of Russian diesel.
USDA’s weekly Crop Progress report later today likely will show farmers made further harvest headway last week but may still lag the historical average.
A week ago, USDA reported 33% of the U.S. corn crop was harvested as of Oct. 11, up from 23% a week earlier but below the 39% average for that date the previous five years. Among top states, Illinois rose to 51% complete from 36%, but Iowa was just 14% finished, up from 7% a week earlier and below its 34% five-year average.
USDA also reported 56% of the crop in 18 top corn states in either “good” or “excellent” condition, up from 54% a week earlier. The combined “poor” and “very poor” number fell to 17% from 18%.
Corn futures took pressure Friday despite signs of improving export demand, though sales commitments so far in the 2026-27 marketing year remain down sharply from year-ago levels.
USDA reported net U.S. corn sales for the week that ended Oct. 8 at 1.122 million metric tons (44.2 million bushels), up 46% from the previous week and up 42% from the average for the previous four weeks. Sales were at the high end of expectations and led by Mexico at 544,500 MT. For 2026-27 to date, sales commitments now total 813.6 million bushels, down 33% from the same point a year ago.
Despite last week’s jump, skepticism persists over the longer-term outlook for U.S. corn exports, which are expected to slow following a record last year but still be historically high. USDA, in its October Supply and Demand report, hiked its full-year export target by 25 million bushels to 3.3 billion bushels.
“The market needs to see a meaningful uptick in realized sales to play catch-up with the pace needed or risk seeing that figure walked back downward,” said StoneX analyst Mike Castle in a report Friday. “My own expectation is to see a notable rebound as buyers that had previously been sitting on the sidelines watching prices move higher start to step forward to take advantage of the break in prices.”
Soybeans harvest overshadows Chinese demand
November soybeans fell 1.25 cents to $12.60 late overnight after shedding 1.75 cents Friday to $12.6125, the contract’s fifth consecutive daily decline and its lowest close since Aug. 25. Futures tumbled 30.75 cents for the week. January futures fell 1 cent to $12.7475.
Soybean technicals stabilized overnight but retain a neutral-bearish near-term tone with November futures on track to close below the 50-day SMA (about $12.7675) for the third day in a row. Further weakness this week could set up a test of support around $12.5650, which marks the July high, and the $12.50 area. Other downside levels to watch include the 100-day SMA (about $12.26).
Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price fell just over 1.5 cents Friday to $12.0225, down 31.75 cents for the week and near a seven-week low. Friday’s average was 59 cents under November futures, widening from 58 cents a week ago.
December soymeal rose 20 cents to $357.30 per ton after dropping $2.70 Friday and posting a 2.3% decline for the week. December soy oil fell 5 points to 67.08 cents per pound after losing 1.3% last week for the market’s fourth weekly drop in the past five.
Soybean futures remain under pressure as stepped-up harvest and a disappointing crushing report last Thursday mutes the supportive impact of last week’s purchases by China. Like corn, soybeans are also face pressure as managed money funds pare back a still-large net long position in soybean futures.
Farmers likely passed the halfway point with soybean harvest last week. A week ago, USDA reported 46% of the U.S. soybean crop harvested as of Oct. 11, up from 25% a week earlier but behind the five-year average of 50%. Among top Midwest producers, Illinois improved to 48% harvested from 31% a week earlier, while Indiana was 44% harvested, up from 27%. Iowa jumped to 31% complete from just 5% a week earlier but was still behind its 59% five-year average.
The crop’s overall good-to-excellent reading was unchanged at 57%, meeting expectations. About 29% of the crop was rated fair, while the poor-to-very-poor categories held at 14%.
Soybean export sales rebounded only modestly last week despite continuing purchases by China. USDA reported net U.S. sales for the week that ended Oct. 8 at 574,900 MT (21.1 million bushels), up 5% from the previous week but down 40% from the four-week average. Sales were at the low end of expectations. China led buyers at 126,300 MT, including 180,000 MT switched from unknown destinations.
For 2026-27 to date, sales commitments now total 858.2 million bushels, up 74% from the same period last year, when China was not buying U.S. beans.
China continues to make progress toward a 25-MMT annual purchase target touted by the White House. As of Oct. 8, outstanding sales commitments for U.S. beans to China for 2026-27 delivery totaled 11.27 MMT (414 million bushels). That represented 45% of the 25-MMT full-year target the White House has said Beijing had committed to annually through 2028.
The purchase total is sure to increase following China’s buying spree last week. Early Friday, USDA reported private exporter soybean sales totaling 558,000 MT for delivery to China during the 2026-27 marketing year. Friday’s announcement followed two previous USDA-reported flash soybean sales last week totaling of 800,000 MT, bringing last week’s total to 1.358 MMT.
Wheat burdened by poor export performance
December soft red winter wheat fell 0.5 cent to $6.60 after dropping 9.5 cents Friday to $6.6050, the contract’s lowest close since Aug. 11. Futures fell 10.5 cents for the week to post a seventh consecutive weekly decline.
December hard red winter wheat rose 0.75 cent to $7.0475 after sinking 9 cents Friday to $7.04, the contract’s seventh drop in the past eight days and its lowest close since July 14. Futures fell 15.25 cents for the week for the market’s seventh straight weekly loss.
December spring wheat rose 1.5 cents to $6.78 after dropping 9.5 cents Friday to $6.7650, a three-month closing low.
Wheat futures traded mixed overnight but remain in a six-week downtrend amid crumbling technicals and bearishness over sagging exports and recent strength in the U.S. dollar. Accelerating winter wheat planting and improving crop conditions in the Plains following recent rainfall are also weighing on the market.
A week ago, USDA reported 51% of the winter wheat crop was planted as of Oct. 11, up from 36% the previous week but behind the 58% average for the past five years. Kansas rose to 44% planted from 24% planted but still trailed its 56% five-year average, and Oklahoma rose to 28% from 14% planted, behind its 48% five-year average.
About 27% of the winter wheat crop had emerged as of Oct. 11, up from 16% the previous week but trailing the 32% five-year average.
U.S. wheat exports continue to languish despite hopes that Black Sea disruptions will eventually prompt global buyers to increasingly seek alternative suppliers. USDA reported net U.S. wheat sales for the week that ended Oct. 8 at 319,900 MT (11.8 million bushels), down 29% from a 15-week high the previous week and down 4% from the four-week average. Sales were at the low end of expectations and led by Taiwan at 105,800 MT.
For the 2026-27 marketing year to date, U.S. wheat sales commitments (including accumulated exports) now total 382.2 million bushels, down 33% from the same period in 2025-26.
“Disruptions to Black Sea shipping and potential quality problems in both Canada and Argentina do keep the door open for additional U.S. export demand in the months ahead,” Castle wrote. However, USDA’s recent 25 million-bushel cut to its 2026-27 U.S. wheat export target “reflects the market’s growing impatience over seeing more of this demand come to fruition.”