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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.
What we’re watching
With war in the Middle East already disrupting energy and fertilizer markets, weather is “now emerging as a second major layer of risk,” a StoneX analyst says. An expected El Nino later this year raises concern over the potential impact of excess heat or dryness on major crops such as palm oil. Heightened risks have sent a commodity index tracked by Bloomberg to a 2 ½-year high.
Corn rebounds amid high oil prices, strong demand
July corn futures rose 3.25 cents to $4.78 per bushel late in overnight trading after dropping 1.75 cents Thursday, down from a five-week closing high Wednesday. The contract is still up from $4.6350 at the end of last week and on track for a third straight weekly gain.
December futures rose 3 cents to $4.9725 after slipping 3.5 cents Thursday to $4.9425 for the contract’s first decline in 10 days. Around midday Thursday, December futures hit $4.9975, the highest intraday price for a December contract since January 2024, before fading.
Corn technicals stabilized overnight after Thursday’s poor performance, in which both July and December came close to posting bearish outside day lower closes on daily bar charts. Both contracts remain in strong uptrends since mid-April, and a firm finish today could encourage additional buying next week, possibly sending December futures on a run above $5. In July futures, upside targets to watch include Thursday’s high at $4.80.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price fell almost 2.5 cents Thursday to just under $4.3175. Thursday’s average was about 33 cents below May futures, narrowing from 36 cents a week earlier.
Corn futures were dragged lower Thursday by sharp declines in the wheat market but bounced back overnight as heightened concerns over Middle East war risk kept crude oil prices elevated. Oil prices rose sharply this week as efforts to halt the war remain at an impasse, with Tehran still blocking the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. Navy blocking exports of Iranian crude.
June WTI crude futures fell over 0.5% to $104.50 per barrel after pulling back from overnight highs but are still up over $10, or 11%, for the week.
Over the coming week, traders will continue to closely monitor wheat and the Middle East, as well as Midwest weather. A mostly dry outlook for the Corn Belt should allow farmers to extend already-rapid planting progress, which could cap upside in new-crop futures. It’s likely that this week’s run-up near $5 also spurred some producer sales that could weigh on prices.
Early this week, USDA reported 25% of the U.S. corn crop was planted as of April 26, up from 11% from a week earlier and above the 19% average for that date the past five years.
Strong export demand continues to fuel bullish tailwinds. Top global corn importers stepped up purchases from the U.S. last week, keeping this year’s exports on a record pace. USDA reported net U.S. corn sales at 1.598 million metric tons (62.9 million bushels) during the week ended April 23, up 21% from the previous week and up 22% from the average for the previous four weeks. Sales were led by Colombia at 420,300 MT.
For 2025-26 to date, U.S. corn sales commitments (including accumulated exports) now total 2.98 billion bushels, up 29% from the same period in 2024-25. Sales are running about 142 million bushels above the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA’s record full-year export target of 3.3 billion bushels, according to StoneX analyst Arlan Suderman.
“Demand for U.S. corn remains strong on the global market, partially due to the fact that Brazil now utilizes a much larger portion of its crop to produce ethanol,” Suderman said in a report, noting that Brazil plans to boost its mandated ethanol blending rate to 32% in June or July from 30% currently.
Many farmers appear to be reevaluating their planting intentions as the Iran war drives up fertilizer prices. About 21% of respondents in a recent Farmer’s Keeper survey said they planned to decrease corn acres, the firm’s CEO Nick Tsiolis said in an Ag Marketing IQ in Depth video. “If we see lower corn acres, it’s definitely going to be supportive for corn,” Tsiolis said.
Soyoil leads soybean market back above $12
July soybeans rose 5.5 cents to $12.01 overnight after dipping 1.5 cents Thursday to $11.9550, down from a six-week intraday high early in the session. Futures are still up from $11.7850 at the end of last week. November soybeans rose 5.75 cents to $11.7875 after earlier touching $11.80, the highest intraday prices for a nearby November contract since June 2024.
Soybean technicals rebounded overnight following Thursday’s price pullback, with new-crop November futures leading the way higher, having gained over 23 cents for the week to sustain a six-week uptrend. July futures broke above a six-week trading range Thursday and a strong close above $12 could fuel further buying next week, with upside targets including a mid-March high around $12.25. A nearby November contract last traded above $12 in late May 2024.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price fell over 2.25 cents Thursday to just under $11.2325. Thursday’s average was about 58.75 cents below May futures, narrowing from 61.75 cents a week earlier.
July soymeal rose $1.40 to $320.30 per ton overnight after tumbling 1.5% Thursday to a one-week low. July soyoil rose 73 points to 75.27 cents per pound after adding another 42 points Thursday to end at 74.54 cents, the highest for a most-active contract since November 2022.
Soybean futures followed soyoil higher overnight and also retain support from crude oil and diesel futures that remain near four-year highs. Soyoil futures have soared over 50% this year as expectations for sharply higher federal biofuels mandates encouraged speculator buying. But the managed money net long position in soyoil futures has swelled to a record, which could leave the soy complex vulnerable to a sharp profit-taking selloff.
Rapid planting progress and the prospect for a sharp increase in acreage could limit upside in soybeans, though heightened war-related risk premium across global markets should keep prices supported. USDA early this week said 23% of the U.S. soybean crop was planted as of April 26, up from 12% a week earlier and ahead of the 12% average for the past five years.
Thursday’s export sales report came out at the low end of expectations for soybeans, underscoring the U.S. market’s year-long underperformance. USDA reported net U.S. sales of 258,100 MT (9.48 million bushels) down 29% from the previous week and down 18% from the four-week average. China led buyers at 199,200 MT, including 192,000 MT switched from “unknown destinations.”
For 2025-26 to date, U.S. export commitments now total 1.425 billion bushels, down 18% from the same period last year. USDA expects full-year exports to drop by the same percentage, to 1.54 billion bushels, a 13-year low.
This year’s export pace is only about 8 million bushels below what’s needed to hit USDA’s full-year target “but the deficit is slowly starting to build again, and I expect that to continue with much cheaper Brazilian supplies available,” Suderman said, “Unless old-crop soybeans are included in the trade deal anticipated to emerge from Trump's visit to Beijing next month.”
Wheat rebounds as drought concerns persist
July SRW wheat rose 4.75 cents to $6.4150 after tumbling 16.25 cents Thursday to $6.3675, down from a 22-month intraday high Wednesday. Earlier Wednesday, July futures reached $6.7150, the highest intraday price for a most-active SRW contract since early June 2024. July SRW futures are still up from $6.1675 at the end of last week and poised for a third straight weekly advance.
July HRW wheat rose 5.5 cents to $6.99 after shedding 11.25 cents Thursday to $6.9350, down from a 23-month closing high at $7.0475 Wednesday. Futures are still up from $6.6975 at the end of last week. July spring wheat fell 1 cent to $7.0475.
Wheat futures managed a modest bounce overnight following Thursday’s selloff, which was driven by reports of rainfall in parched growing areas of eastern Colorado and western Kansas. But most of the Southern Plains remains locked in moderate to extreme drought and rain prospects look limited until late next week. Analysts are starting to sharply scale back estimates for the HRW crop.
Monday’s weekly USDA crop ratings update likely will underscore concern over drought damage. Early this week, USDA reported 30% of the U.S. winter wheat crop in “good” or “excellent” condition as of April 26, unchanged from a week earlier but down from 49% a year ago. Wheat rated “poor” or “very poor” increased to 35% from 33%.
Thursday’s USDA export sales report showed some improvement in wheat purchases for both the current and upcoming marketing years. The 2026-27 crop year begins June 1.
USDA reported net weekly U.S. wheat sales for 2025-26 delivery at 226,100 MT (8.3 million bushels), up 75% from the previous week. Sales were at the high end of expectations and led by Indonesia at 70,000 MT. For 2026-27 delivery, USDA reported net sales of 156,700 MT, also at the high end of expectations and led by Taiwan at 66,400 MT.
For 2025-26 to date, sales commitments now total 906.8 million bushels, up almost 16% from the same period in 2024-25 and above USDA’s full-year target of 900 million bushels.
Elsewhere, the consultant SovEcon raised its estimate for 2025-26 Russian wheat exports by 900,000 MT, or 1.9%, to 47.4 MMT (1.74 billion bushels) and hiked its forecast for 2026-27 exports by 3.2%, to 45.2 MMT.
Limited rain for Midwest over coming week
The Midwest will see limited rainfall prospects into early next week, with only trace amounts to 0.25 inch possible for much of the central and western Corn Belt, based on NOAA’s latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map. Western Kansas and the Panhandle region also look dry through the weekend but may see light totals by the end of next week.
Extended forecasts continue to call for a cool first half of May along with but have turned drier for most of the Corn Belt.
The latest National Weather Service’s 6-to-10-day and 8-to-14-day outlooks, covering May 6-14, hold below-normal temperatures for most of the Midwest and Plains, along with below-normal precipitation prospects expanding from the Northern Plains across the western and central Corn Belt.