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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.
What we’re watching
The 2026 U.S. growing season is shaping up similar to 2015, with an El Nino expected to intensify through winter and in the interim supporting average or better grain yields, AccuWeather meteorologist Chad Merrill says. That means farmers looking for weather rallies will need to watch out closely. Watch Merrill’s Ag Marketing IQ In Depth video.
Corn lifted by uncertain Midwest weather outlook
December corn futures rose 2.25 cents to $4.4450 late in overnight trading after advancing 6.25 cents Wednesday to $4.4225 per bushel. Prices are up almost 19 cents from a contract low at $4.2575 posted Tuesday. September corn rose 3 cents to $4.2575.
Corn charts strengthened further overnight with December futures on track for a third consecutive higher close and the contract’s first settlement above the 20-day simple moving average since May 19. A firm close today would bolster ideas the market may have established a near-term bottom, but December futures likely need a close above the $4.50 level to solidify the bulls’ case. Downside levels to watch include the 10-day SMA ($4.3925) and the contract low.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price rose almost 7 cents Wednesday to just over $3.9225. Wednesday’s average was about 30.5 cents below September futures, narrowing from 37.5 cents a week earlier.
Corn futures extended this week’s post-USDA report gains overnight amid uncertainty over the Midwest weather outlook ahead of the three-day holiday weekend. The recent heat wave is expected to moderate next week but extended forecasts show temperatures holding above normal through mid-July, right around the heart of the critical pollination season.
The July 4 weekend is historically a pivotal period for corn and soybean markets, and forecasts could always shift over the long weekend. Weather models paint a mixed picture, and with little weather risk reflected in current prices, funds may be motivated to pare down the sizable short position they accumulated in corn futures during June. But this week’s modest rally could quickly unravel next week if forecasts convince traders there’s limited threat to pollination.
Otherwise, prices retain support from USDA’s lower-than-anticipated quarterly stocks number reported Tuesday, which neutralized the bearish impact of an unexpected increase in the planted acres estimate. USDA raised estimated U.S. corn plantings to 95.343 million acres, up about 5,000 acres from its March Prospective Plantings forecast and contrary to expectations for a cut of about 346,000 acres. Plantings are down 3.5% from 2025 but are still the fourth highest since 1944.
Demand metrics are also in focus with USDA reporting weekly export sales this morning and rumors of Chinese buying interest in U.S. corn and soybeans continuing to make the rounds. U.S. corn export sales fell sharply in late June, extending a recent slump, but remain on a record pace for the full year.
Analysts expect net 2025-26 U.S. sales to range from 500,000 metric tons (MT) to 1.1 million metric tons (19.7 million to 43.3 million bushels) for the week ended June 25, based on a Reuters survey. Sales for 2026-27 are seen at 400,000 MT to 1.1 MMT.
A week ago, USDA reported net U.S. old-crop corn sales for the week ended June 18 at a six-week low of 743,100 MT, down 27% from the average for the previous four weeks. USDA also reported net weekly sales for 2026-27 delivery at 735,900 MT, up over 40% from the previous week.
For 2025-26 to date, U.S. corn sales commitments (including accumulated exports) now total 3.333 billion bushels, up 25% from the same period in 2024-25 and on track to surpass USDA’s full-year forecast for a record 3.325 billion bushels.
U.S. ethanol producers ramped up output to a 2 ½-month high at the end of June as cheap corn and strong exports drove margins. Production averaged 1.117 million barrels a day for the week ended June 26, up 2.5% from the previous week and the highest weekly average since the week ended April 10, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported Wednesday. Over the past four weeks, production averaged 1.104 million barrels a day, up 0.7% from the same period in 2025.
However, the ethanol industry’s corn consumption continues the lag the pace needed to reach USDA’s full-year target of 5.575 billion bushels, according to StoneX analyst Randy Mittelstaedt. “We continue to see 2025-26 U.S. corn for ethanol production likely falling around 50 million bushels short of the USDA’s estimate,” Mittelstaedt said in a note.
Also Wednesday, StoneX Brazil said it raised its estimates for the country’s first and second corn crops, with the latter boosted 1.5 MMT, or 1.4%, to 107.5 MMT. The firm’s estimate for the overall crop rose 1.6 MMT, or 1.2%, to 138.4 MMT (5.45 billion bushels). That would still be below last year’s 139.8-MMT harvest.
USDA’s Acreage and Grains Stocks reports came and went, and an encouraging result for farmers was a grain market that showed resilience despite some bearish surprises. Focus now shifts to what else? “We are now a weather market,” Iowa farmer and advisor Chase Koopmans said on his Grain Ledger Rundown blog. Read more analysis in Farm Futures’ acreage and stocks breakdown.
Soybeans supported by China demand hopes
November soybeans rose 6.5 cents to $11.5575 after gaining 5.5 cents Wednesday to $11.4925, the contract’s second straight daily advance. Prices are still down from $11.5625 at the end of last week and poised to halt a two-week win streak. August soybeans rose 7.25 cents to $11.4050.
Soybean technicals continued to firm overnight, with November futures tracking for a third consecutive up day and a close back above the 100-day SMA about (about $11.5275). Near-term resistance comes in at Wednesday's high ($11.6125) and the 50-day SMA ($11.66). Prices remain down from the June high ($11.9725) and May’s peak ($12.14).
Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price surged over 15.25 cents Wednesday to about $10.8525. Wednesday’s average was about 48 cents below August futures, narrowing from 58.5 cents a week earlier.
August soymeal surged $3.70 to $309.00 per ton after climbing near a four-week high. August soyoil fell 27 points to 66.42 cents per pound after slipping 24 points Wednesday to end at a 2 ½-month closing low.
Soybean futures extended this week’s upswing overnight with help from sharp advances in soymeal and uncertainty over the impact of Midwest weather on yield potential. USDA’s updated acreage estimate earlier this week was largely price-neutral, and rumors of Chinese buying interest continue to keep sellers at bay. Weather and China are key to near-term price direction.
On Tuesday, USDA said it hiked estimated soybean plantings by 665,000 acres from March to 85.365 million acres, nearly matching the average analyst estimate at 85.369 million acres. USDA’s updated bean acreage is up 5.1% from the 81.215 million acres seeded in 2025, a six-year low.
Traders will look to today’s USDA weekly export for any additional confirmation of China buying U.S. soybeans for the 2026-27 crop year. Net 2025-26 old-crop U.S. soybean sales for the week ended June 25 are seen at 300,000 MT to 650,000 MT (11 million to 23.9 million bushels). Sales for 2026-27 may range from 350,000 MT to 900,000 MT.
A week ago, USDA reported net weekly soybean sales for 2025-26 delivery at 455,400 MT, up 7% from the previous week and up 50% from the four-week average. USDA also reported net sales of 902,200 MT for 2026-27 delivery, which included 529,000 MT for “unknown destinations” and 200,000 MT for China.
For 2025-26 to date, U.S. soybean export commitments totaled 1.508 billion bushels, down 17% from the same period last year. Last month, USDA cut its full-year soybean export forecast by 10 million bushels to 1.51 billion bushels, a 13-year low.
Also Thursday, StoneX Brazil raised its estimate for the country’s 2025-26 soybean crop by 300,000 MT, or 0.2%, to 182.1 MMT (6.69 billion bushels), citing higher yield prospects.
Wheat higher on sharply reduced supply outlook
September SRW wheat rose 3.25 cents to $6.0325 after gaining another 10.75 cents Wednesday to $6.00, the contract’s highest close in nearly a week. Futures are up from $5.8975 at the end of last week and poised for a third weekly advance in the past four weeks.
Wheat charts have firmed with September SRW futures on track to close above both the 10- and 20-day SMAs ($5.9750 and $5.9875) for the first time since late May. Early Tuesday, September futures sank as low as $5.74, the lowest intraday price since February 19, but prices rebounded to close back above the 200-day SMA ($5.91).
September HRW wheat rose 2.75 cents to $6.3775 after jumping 9.75 cents Wednesday to $6.35, the contract’s highest close since June 22. September spring wheat rose 0.5 cent to $6.19 after surging 12 cents Wednesday to $6.1850, the contract’s second straight daily advance following a drop to a four-month closing low Monday.
Wheat futures extended this week’s rally behind Tuesday’s bullish USDA acreage and stocks numbers, as a sharp reduction in wheat plantings indicates U.S. supplies will contract sharply next year. Drought in the Southern Plains slashed winter wheat yields and is expected to cause higher than usual levels of acreage abandonment.
USDA lowered estimated plantings of all varieties of wheat by 1.035 million acres to 42.74 million acres, contrary to expectations for a rise of 83,000 acres. Wheat plantings are down 5.7% from 2025 and the lowest in USDA records going back to 1919. Winter wheat plantings shrank 890,000 acres to a six-year low at 31.52 million acres.
Traders will watch today’s export report to see if a recent surge in U.S. wheat sales was sustained into late June and may help the market recover from a slow start to 2026-27.
Net weekly U.S. wheat sales for 2026-27 delivery may range from 300,000 MT to 600,000 MT (11 million to 22 million bushels). A week ago, net U.S. wheat sales for the week ended June 18 totaled 504,500 MT, up 26% from the previous week.
For 2026-27 to date, U.S. wheat sales commitments (including accumulated exports) totaled 202 million bushels, down 17% from the same period in 2025-26. For the full year, USDA projects exports will drop by 15% from 2025-26, to 775 million bushels.
Potentially heavy rains for northern Corn Belt
Much of the central and northern Corn Belt may see potentially heavy rains into early next week, with 1.25 inches to over 3 inches possible by Tuesday for much of Iowa, southern Minnesota, southwest Wisconsin and the northern edge of Illinois, based on a National Weather Service five-day outlook. Amounts of 0.1 inch to 0.5 inch are seen for the rest of the eastern Corn Belt.
Extended forecasts continue to show warm temperatures persisting through the middle of the month along with improved moisture prospects. The latest NWS 6-to-10-day outlook, covering July 6-10, calls for above-normal temperatures for the entire Corn Belt and Plains but the greatest probabilities for extreme heat have shifted to the West. Also, above-normal precipitation prospects have expanded to cover nearly the entire Corn Belt.
The 8-to-14-day outlook, covering July 9-15, also calls for above-normal temperatures but also limited chances for extreme heat. Normal precipitation prospects are expected for most of the western Corn Belt and Northern Plains.