Don’t miss the latest market commentary from the Farm Futures team. Sign up for the complimentary morning and afternoon market newsletters!
Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.
What we’re watching
After an October market beatdown, November is shaping up to be a pivotal month for U.S. soybean growers, and not just because of Tuesday’s USDA reports. Record domestic crushing and a sharp, China-driven rebound in exports seem to offer hope the recent price slump will have soon run its course. But first, USDA data looms large.
Midwest weather looks mostly dry most of this week, which should allow a quick finish for remaining harvest. Little precipitation is expected for the western Corn Belt through Saturday, while trace amounts to 0.5 inch may fall over Illinois, Indiana and Ohio through Saturday, according to the National Weather Service. The NWS six-to-12-day outlook, which covers Nov. 14-18, retains above-normal temperatures and below-normal moisture odds for most of the Midwest.
Corn traders expecting yield cut
December corn rose 1.5 cents to $4.43 per bushel late in overnight trading after adding 1.5 cents Friday to $4.4150, up from a four-month closing low the day before. Futures still fell 6.25 cents for the week to post a sixth consecutive weekly decline. March futures rose 1 cent to $4.5625.
Corn technicals displayed some additional resilience overnight as the market extended follow-through from Friday’s modest gains. A firm close today could bolster hopes a near-term bottom is at hand, but USDA’s numbers Tuesday will have a lot to say about that.
The potential for a bottom hinges in part on whether December futures can hold last week’s twin intraday lows at $4.3850. With funds having liquidated a once-record net long to the point where they are now close to neutral suggests downside has been exhausted for now.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price rose about 2 cents Friday to just under $4.0625, up from a four-month low the day before, but still down roughly 8 cents for the week. Friday’s average was about 35.25 cents under December futures, widening from 33.5 cents a week earlier.
Corn futures climbed overnight as the market extended last week’s corrective gains and traders positioned for Tuesday’s USDA reports. Strong cash markets and expectations for a USDA yield cut have helped stem downside momentum, and managed money funds have unloaded nearly all of what was once a record bullish bet on corn futures.
Traders expect USDA to lower its estimates for U.S. corn yields in Tuesday’s Crop Production report after gathering additional harvest data in recent weeks. USDA will also report its monthly WASDE Supply and Demand update Tuesday. In October, USDA boosted its average U.S. yield estimate to 181.2 bushels per acre, up 2.7 bpa from September.
The following summarizes analysts’ expectations for key corn and soybean numbers in Tuesday’s reports:
USDA’s weekly Crop Progress report this afternoon may reflect a slowdown in harvest due to last week’s Midwest rains, although most of the crop should still be out of the fields by now.
A week ago, USDA said 74% of the U.S. corn crop was harvested as of Nov. 1, up from 60% a week earlier and slightly behind the 77% average for that date the previous five years. Among top Corn Belt states, Illinois rose to 86% complete from 74%, and Indiana rose to 75% from 61%. Iowa jumped to 66% from 47%, but still trailed its 79% five-year average.
Traders will watch USDA’s weekly export inspections update later this morning for any signs of improvement in corn shipments, which have fallen sharply from year-ago levels. Sales commitments are also down sharply so far in the 2026-27 marketing year, which began Sept. 1.
A week ago, USDA reported corn inspected for export during the week that ended Oct. 29 at a 884,766 metric tons (34.8 million bushels), up 39% from the previous week but down 48% from the same week a year earlier. For 2026-27 to date, corn shipments now total 420.3 million bushels, down 13% from the same period in 2025-26.
Steep corn and soybean price drops may be stirring fresh export demand. Early Friday, USDA reported private exporter corn sales totaling 101,000 MT to “unknown destinations” for delivery during the 2026-27 marketing year. USDA also reported private exporter soybean sales totaling 136,000 MT to China, also for 2026-27 delivery.
With grain prices in free fall the past two months, the last thing farmers wanted to see was USDA’s recent correction to September corn yield numbers. But it’s the November Crop Production report Tuesday that’s the market’s primary focus now. Recent history suggests there’s a chance corn yields may be dialed back. Do we trust the numbers?
Soybeans burdened by record crop outlook
January soybeans fell 1 cent to $11.9275 late overnight after rebounding from an early drop Friday to a 12-week low to add 5.5 cents, the first gain in 10 days. Futures still lost 40.5 cents for the week to record a fourth consecutive weekly decline. March futures fell 1.25 cents to $11.98.
Soybean futures showed further resilience overnight as the market generated follow-through from Friday’s gains. January futures remain below $12, but a firm close today could foster ideas the market is in the process of establishing a near-term bottom. Holding last week’s intraday low at $11.84 will be one key to those ideas, and USDA data will be key to near-term direction. Futures remain severely oversold, but funds still retain a relatively large net long position, which leaves prices vulnerable to further liquidation pressure.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price rose about 6 cents Friday to just over $11.3025, up from a four-month low Thursday but still down about 33 cents for the week. Friday’s average was about 63.5 cents under January futures, narrowing from 70.75 cents a week ago.
December soymeal fell $1.40 to $317.80 per ton after shedding 1.7% last week and dipping to 2.5-month lows. December soy oil rose 10 points to 62.36 cents per pound after tumbling 5.5% last week and dropping to the lowest levels since late March.
Soybean futures remain under pressure from technically driven fund liquidation and expectations USDA will increase its already-record outlook for the U.S. crop. Weaker energy prices are also weighing on the soy complex, with crude oil prices down sharply after President Donald Trump downplayed the likelihood of renewed strikes on Iran. WTI crude was down over 3.5% at $87.31 per barrel after hitting a four-week low last week.
The soybean market remains burdened by big supplies from a likely record U.S. harvest and the South American crop getting off to a strong start, having benefited from widespread rains in key Brazilian growing areas.
The following summarizes analysts’ expectations for key U.S. and global stocks figures in Tuesday’s Supply and Demand report:
A week ago, USDA reported 88% of the U.S. soybean crop harvested as of Nov. 1, up from 79% a week earlier and above the 84% average for the past five years. Illinois improved to 91% harvested from 81% a week earlier, while Indiana was 87% harvested, up from 75%. Iowa surged to 90% complete from 78% a week earlier, but it was even with its five-year average.
Weekly soybean inspections should remain relatively strong, although China’s recent buying spree has tapered off somewhat. A week ago, USDA reported soybean export inspections for the week that ended Oct. 29 at 2.445 million metric tons (89.8 million bushels), down 2.3% from the prior week and more than double the same week in 2025. China was the top destination at 1.524 MMT.
For the 2026-27 marketing year to date, soybean shipments now total 447.6 million bushels, up 56%.
China has made progress toward a 25-MMT full-year purchase target that arose from a U.S.-China trade truce reached a year ago. As of Oct. 29, outstanding sales commitments for U.S. beans to China for 2026-27 delivery totaled 15.95 MMT, or 64% of the 25 MMT full-year target the White House has said Beijing committed to through 2028.
Wheat pressured by weak exports
December soft red winter wheat fell 1.75 cents to $5.8950 after dropping another 8 cents Friday to $5.9125, the contract’s lowest close since Feb. 18. SRW futures shed 12.25 cents last week to post a 10th straight weekly loss, and have tumbled over 25% from a three-year high near $8 in early September.
December hard red wheat fell 3.75 cents to $6.2875 after slipping 3.25 cents Friday to $6.3250, the contract’s lowest settlement since June 29. HRW futures lost 11.75 cents last week, the market’s 10th consecutive weekly decline.
December spring wheat fell 1.5 cents to $6.1450 after dipping 4 cents Friday to $6.16, a lifetime-low close.
Wheat futures extended a two-month slide overnight as prices fell back near last week’s previous lows, further fueling the market’s heavy bearish momentum. Prices remain burdened by ample global supplies, weak exports and improving crop conditions in the U.S. Plains.
Traders are also apparently shrugging off ongoing Russia-Ukraine hostilities that have impeded grain shipments from the Black Sea. Ukraine this week renewed attacks on Russian oil refineries add to Moscow's difficulty in addressing domestic fuel shortages. The Ryazan oil refinery, one of Russia's largest, appeared
Traders will watch for any improvement in USDA’s weekly crop ratings for winter wheat. A week ago, in its first ratings report of the season for winter wheat, USDA reported 44% of the crop in either “good” or “excellent” condition as of Nov. 1, well below expectations for a number closer to 50%. A total of 18% of the crop was rated poor-to-very poor.
USDA also reported 83% of the winter wheat crop planted as of Nov. 1, up from 76% the previous week and slightly behind the 84% average for the past five years. About 65% of the winter wheat crop had emerged, up from 53% the previous week and even with the five-year average.
Weekly wheat inspections are poised for a rebound after dropping to a 23-year low at the end of October. A week ago, USDA said wheat inspected for export during the week that ended Oct. 29 totaled 75,413 MT (2.77 million bushels), down 61% from the prior week and down 79% from the same week in 2025. Last week’s total was the lowest for a single week wince June 2003, according to StoneX.
For 2026-27 to date, U.S. wheat shipments totaled 276.6 million bushels, down 36% from the same period a year earlier. But relatively strong sales reports the previous two weeks offered some hope that demand may finally be improving.